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5 Reasons to Worry about China's Economy
 

5 Reasons to Worry about China's Economy

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New data released by the Chinese government suggests that its real estate bubble may have popped and its economy is feeling the effects.

New data released by the Chinese government suggests that its real estate bubble may have popped and its economy is feeling the effects.

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    5 Reasons to Worry about China's Economy 5 Reasons to Worry about China's Economy Presentation Transcript

    • Reasons to Worry about China’s ECONOMY
    • Since the financial crisis, China has served as the engine of the global economy.
    • While the United States & Europe remain mired in economic malaise…
    • …China’s miraculous ascent has continued.
    • -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP Growth Rates: China vs. United States China United States Source: World Bank
    • But is this coming to an end?
    • That’s what it looks like…
    • Real estate sales in China are headed lower.
    • 77.60% -3.70% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2013 2014 Year-over-Year Change in Real Estate Sales: 2013 vs. 2014
    • Retail sales are growing at the slowest pace since feb. 2011.
    • 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% 13.5% 14.0% Jan - Feb 2013 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan - Feb 2014 Year-over-Year Change in Retail Sales
    • Industrial output is increasing at the weakest pace since 2009.
    • 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% Jan - Feb 2013 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan - Feb 2014 Year-over-Year Change in Industrial Output
    • Fixed-income investments have eased to the lowest rate since 2002.
    • 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% Jan - Feb 2013 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan - Feb 2014 Year-over-Year Change in Fixed-Income Investments
    • Chinese stocks are nearing 5-year lows.
    • 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,900 3,100 3,300 3,500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Shanghai Composite Index
    • Suffice it to say…
    • This doesn’t look promising.
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