One if by Land, Two if by Sea: Toward a Strategy of Public Warning for Terrorism May 31, 2007 John Fenzel, COL, USA
The Lexington Alert System <ul><li>In the Fall of 1774 and Winter of 1775 I was one </li></ul><ul><li>of upwards of thirty...
<ul><li>“ Among the many objects to </li></ul><ul><li>which a wise and free  </li></ul><ul><li>people find it necessary to...
The Galveston Hurricane of 1900
The Dayton Warning System
 
The Public Warning Imperative <ul><li>In sum, the domestic agencies never mobilized </li></ul><ul><li>in response to the t...
The AMBER Alert System <ul><li>AMBER Alert is a proven success and has  </li></ul><ul><li>helped rescue more than 324 chil...
White House Got Early Warning on Katrina By Joby Warrick Washington Post Staff Writer Tuesday, January 24, 2006; A02 <ul><...
 
 
Critiques of the HSAS <ul><li>The first few initiatives of the new Department, rather than make us feel more secure, becam...
Threats to Effective Warning <ul><li>“ Sometimes we disagreed with the intelligence assessment…. Sometimes we thought even...
Terror Plot Invokes SIRIUS Alert System <ul><li>The first known use of the SIRIUS Emergency Alert System </li></ul><ul><li...
Three Phases of Public Warning <ul><li>Preemption </li></ul><ul><li>Prevention </li></ul><ul><li>Mitigation </li></ul>
Toward a Strategic Framework of Public Warning Time Domestic Public (General) Alert International Targeted (Confidential) ...
Strategic Decision-Making in Warning for Terrorist Threats   Risk Time Preemption Prevention Mitigation Point  of  Attack ...
John Boyd’s OODA Loop Model
 
Fielded Forces Population Infrastructure System Essentials Leadership John Warden’s “Five Rings” System Model
Adapting Warden’s Five Rings Layers of Public Warning U.S. Populace First Responders National Infrastructure National Proc...
Creating a Strategy of Public Warning for Terrorism Intelligence  and Surveillance Public  Warning Vulnerability  Analysis...
Instruments of Warning
Instruments of Public Warning Strategy <ul><li>EAS </li></ul><ul><li>NOAA </li></ul><ul><li>Secure/Open Comms </li></ul><u...
Orient Act Observe Decide Launch Targeted Warning LOW GUARDED ELEVATED Predictive Analysis: -Intelligence -Surveillance Ye...
Orient Act Observe Decide HIGH Functional Warning Sector-Specific Warning Delay - Disrupt Predictive Analysis: -Incomplete...
SEVERE HSAS EAS NOAA  Media COOP/COG Domestic Incident Management Mitigation Attack Imminent or in Progress Prioritize the...
Recommendations… <ul><li>Create a National Commission for Public Warning  </li></ul><ul><li>Establish a new policy of info...
<ul><li>Surprise, when it happens to a government, is likely to be a complicated, diffuse, bureaucratic thing. It includes...
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Toward a Strategy of Public Warning

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How can public warning be employed not only to respond to terrorism, but to prevent--even preempt--attacks prior to their execution? This is a presentation I gave at the National War College. Missing are the talking points for each slide....

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  • Public warning empowers people at risk to reduce losses from natural hazards, accidents, and acts of terrorism. Public warning saves lives, reduces fear, and speeds recovery. Its success is measured by the actions people take. Warning is an important element of providing for public safety. Public safety is a fundamental duty of municipal, county, and tribal government and, for larger hazards, of state and Federal government. Public safety is also the responsibility of citizens to take action
  • Toward a Strategy of Public Warning

    1. 1. One if by Land, Two if by Sea: Toward a Strategy of Public Warning for Terrorism May 31, 2007 John Fenzel, COL, USA
    2. 2. The Lexington Alert System <ul><li>In the Fall of 1774 and Winter of 1775 I was one </li></ul><ul><li>of upwards of thirty, chiefly mechanics, who </li></ul><ul><li>formed our selves in to a Committee for the </li></ul><ul><li>purpose of watching the Movements of the </li></ul><ul><li>British Soldiers, and gaining every intelegence of </li></ul><ul><li>the movements of the Tories. We held our </li></ul><ul><li>meetings at the Green-Dragon Tavern. We were </li></ul><ul><li>so carefull that our meetings should be kept </li></ul><ul><li>Secret; that every time we met, every person </li></ul><ul><li>swore upon the Bible, that they would not </li></ul><ul><li>discover any of our transactions, But to Messrs. </li></ul><ul><li>HANCOCK, ADAMS, Doctors WARREN, </li></ul><ul><li>CHURCH, and one or two more.[sic] </li></ul><ul><li> -Paul Revere </li></ul>
    3. 3. <ul><li>“ Among the many objects to </li></ul><ul><li>which a wise and free </li></ul><ul><li>people find it necessary to </li></ul><ul><li>direct their attention, that of </li></ul><ul><li>providing for their safety </li></ul><ul><li>seems to be the first.” </li></ul><ul><li>-The Federalist Papers </li></ul>
    4. 4. The Galveston Hurricane of 1900
    5. 5. The Dayton Warning System
    6. 7. The Public Warning Imperative <ul><li>In sum, the domestic agencies never mobilized </li></ul><ul><li>in response to the threat. They did not have </li></ul><ul><li>direction, and did not have a plan to institute. </li></ul><ul><li>The borders were not hardened. Transportation </li></ul><ul><li>systems were not fortified. Electronic </li></ul><ul><li>surveillance was not targeted against a domestic </li></ul><ul><li>threat. State and local law enforcement were not </li></ul><ul><li>marshaled to augment the FBI's efforts. The </li></ul><ul><li>public was not warned. </li></ul><ul><li>The terrorists exploited deep institutional failings </li></ul><ul><li>within our government. The question is </li></ul><ul><li>whether extra vigilance might have turned up </li></ul><ul><li>an opportunity to disrupt the plot. </li></ul><ul><li> -9/11 Commission Report </li></ul>
    7. 8. The AMBER Alert System <ul><li>AMBER Alert is a proven success and has </li></ul><ul><li>helped rescue more than 324 children </li></ul><ul><li>nationwide. More than 90 percent of those </li></ul><ul><li>recoveries have occurred since AMBER </li></ul><ul><li>Alert became a nationally coordinated </li></ul><ul><li>effort in 2002. With 50 statewide AMBER </li></ul><ul><li>plans now in place , we are meeting </li></ul><ul><li>President Bush's goal of a National </li></ul><ul><li>AMBER Alert network. As the National </li></ul><ul><li>AMBER Alert Coordinator, I am committed </li></ul><ul><li>to ensuring that we have a strong and </li></ul><ul><li>seamless network in place to protect our </li></ul><ul><li>children. </li></ul><ul><li>- Regina B. Schofield , Assistant Attorney General Office of Justice Programs </li></ul>
    8. 9. White House Got Early Warning on Katrina By Joby Warrick Washington Post Staff Writer Tuesday, January 24, 2006; A02 <ul><li>“ In the 48 hours before Hurricane </li></ul><ul><li>Katrina hit, the White House received </li></ul><ul><li>detailed warnings about the storm's </li></ul><ul><li>likely impact, including eerily prescient </li></ul><ul><li>predictions of breached levees, </li></ul><ul><li>massive flooding, and major losses of </li></ul><ul><li>life and property, documents show….” </li></ul>
    9. 12. Critiques of the HSAS <ul><li>The first few initiatives of the new Department, rather than make us feel more secure, became material for late night comics. The Color Code System initially caused state and local authorities to spend millions of dollars that they did not have to respond to changes in the color, changes that were unaccompanied by any detailed threat information shared with local authorities. States and cities began to announce that they would no longer respond to changes in the color code… </li></ul><ul><li> -Richard A. Clarke </li></ul>“ I stay away from that! Good Luck!” -Richard A. Clarke
    10. 13. Threats to Effective Warning <ul><li>“ Sometimes we disagreed with the intelligence assessment…. Sometimes we thought even if the intelligence was good, you don't necessarily put the country on [alert]. ... There were times when some people were really aggressive about raising it, and we said, 'For that?’” </li></ul><ul><li>-Tom Ridge </li></ul>“ This is more art than science. We want to ensure we’re achieving the desired effect…that we don’t provide information to terrorists.” -President Bush
    11. 14. Terror Plot Invokes SIRIUS Alert System <ul><li>The first known use of the SIRIUS Emergency Alert System </li></ul><ul><li>occured this morning. On my drive this morning I was </li></ul><ul><li>enjoying the Jay Thomas Show on Sirius Stars when an </li></ul><ul><li>“ Emergency Bulletin” came out regarding the terror plot that </li></ul><ul><li>was foiled in London. The message stated the basic facts, </li></ul><ul><li>gave an update as to the status of the alert code color, and </li></ul><ul><li>referred people to Fox News, CNN News, CNN Headline </li></ul><ul><li>News, or BBC World News. The message also gave out the </li></ul><ul><li>appropriate Sirius channel numbers. </li></ul><ul><li>Posted by TulaneJeff on Thursday, August 10th, 2006 at 5:32 pm. (SIRIUS Backstage.com) </li></ul>
    12. 15. Three Phases of Public Warning <ul><li>Preemption </li></ul><ul><li>Prevention </li></ul><ul><li>Mitigation </li></ul>
    13. 16. Toward a Strategic Framework of Public Warning Time Domestic Public (General) Alert International Targeted (Confidential) Alert Preemption Prevention Mitigation Point of Attack Recognition of Incomplete Information Notification of Threat
    14. 17. Strategic Decision-Making in Warning for Terrorist Threats Risk Time Preemption Prevention Mitigation Point of Attack Recognition of Incomplete Information Notification of Threat Infiltration within U.S. Borders Targeted Warnings Expanded Warnings General Warnings
    15. 18. John Boyd’s OODA Loop Model
    16. 20. Fielded Forces Population Infrastructure System Essentials Leadership John Warden’s “Five Rings” System Model
    17. 21. Adapting Warden’s Five Rings Layers of Public Warning U.S. Populace First Responders National Infrastructure National Processes National Leadership
    18. 22. Creating a Strategy of Public Warning for Terrorism Intelligence and Surveillance Public Warning Vulnerability Analysis Prevention Mitigation Preemption Predictive Analysis
    19. 23. Instruments of Warning
    20. 24. Instruments of Public Warning Strategy <ul><li>EAS </li></ul><ul><li>NOAA </li></ul><ul><li>Secure/Open Comms </li></ul><ul><li>National Communications System </li></ul><ul><li>EAS </li></ul><ul><li>NOAA </li></ul><ul><li>Secure/Open Comms </li></ul><ul><li>National Communications System </li></ul><ul><li>Secure Comms Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Clandestine Comms </li></ul><ul><li>Secure Communications Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Clandestine Communications </li></ul><ul><li>National Communications System </li></ul>Technical Communications <ul><li>HSC </li></ul><ul><li>DHS Operations Center </li></ul><ul><li>WH Situation Room </li></ul><ul><li>SVTC (Fed Gvt, States) </li></ul><ul><li>CSG </li></ul><ul><li>CTC </li></ul><ul><li>Security Clearances </li></ul><ul><li>Official Relationships </li></ul><ul><li>PEOC </li></ul><ul><li>HSC </li></ul><ul><li>DHS Operations Center </li></ul><ul><li>WH Situation Room </li></ul><ul><li>SVTC (Fed Gvt, States) </li></ul><ul><li>CSG </li></ul><ul><li>CTC </li></ul><ul><li>Security Clearances </li></ul><ul><li>Official Relationships </li></ul><ul><li>PEOC </li></ul><ul><li>HSC </li></ul><ul><li>DHS Operations Center </li></ul><ul><li>WH Situation Room </li></ul><ul><li>SVTC (Fed Gvt, States) </li></ul><ul><li>CSG </li></ul><ul><li>CTC </li></ul><ul><li>Security Clearances </li></ul><ul><li>Official Relationships </li></ul><ul><li>PEOC </li></ul>Coordination <ul><li>HSAS </li></ul><ul><li>COOP/COG </li></ul><ul><li>Media/Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability Analyses </li></ul><ul><li>Law Enforcement Information Portals </li></ul><ul><li>Ready.gov </li></ul><ul><li>HSAS </li></ul><ul><li>Media/Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Ready.gov </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability Analyses </li></ul><ul><li>Law Enforcement Information Portals </li></ul><ul><li>Law Enforcement Information Portals </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability Analyses </li></ul>Public Warning <ul><li>Disaster Recovery Teams </li></ul><ul><li>First Responders </li></ul><ul><li>National Guard </li></ul><ul><li>International Partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Interpol </li></ul><ul><li>Urban Search and Rescue Teams </li></ul><ul><li>FESTs </li></ul><ul><li>Tipoff Watchlists </li></ul><ul><li>Undercover Teams </li></ul><ul><li>CIA Operatives/Analysts </li></ul><ul><li>Law Enforcement/FBI </li></ul><ul><li>NEST </li></ul><ul><li>Radiation Detection Stations </li></ul><ul><li>CBIRF </li></ul><ul><li>First Responders </li></ul><ul><li>International Partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Interpol </li></ul><ul><li>Special Mission Units </li></ul><ul><li>Undercover Teams </li></ul><ul><li>CIA Operatives/Analysts </li></ul><ul><li>Law Enforcement/FBI </li></ul><ul><li>Tipoff Watchlists </li></ul><ul><li>Undercover Teams </li></ul><ul><li>CIA Operatives/Analysts </li></ul><ul><li>Law Enforcement/FBI </li></ul><ul><li>International Partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Interpol </li></ul><ul><li>Special Mission Units </li></ul><ul><li>Tipoff Watchlists </li></ul>Detection/Surveillance Mitigation Prevention Preemption
    21. 25. Orient Act Observe Decide Launch Targeted Warning LOW GUARDED ELEVATED Predictive Analysis: -Intelligence -Surveillance Yes (Attack) Preemption Destroy Warden’s Five Rings Detection/Notification of Threat International or Domestic Early to Mid Planning Stages Sufficient Information? Sufficient Capability? No (Move to Prevention)
    22. 26. Orient Act Observe Decide HIGH Functional Warning Sector-Specific Warning Delay - Disrupt Predictive Analysis: -Incomplete Information -Inadequate Capability Vulnerability Analysis Prevention Notification/Detection of Threat Domestic Infiltration of Terror Cells Advanced Planning Stages Prioritize Objectives Using Warden’s Five Rings Model Protect Sources and Methods Public Safety Expanded Warning Observe Orient Act Decide
    23. 27. SEVERE HSAS EAS NOAA Media COOP/COG Domestic Incident Management Mitigation Attack Imminent or in Progress Prioritize the Effort: Warden’s Five Rings Coordinate with Federal, State, Local Authorities and Private Entities General Warning Act Decide Orient Observe
    24. 28. Recommendations… <ul><li>Create a National Commission for Public Warning </li></ul><ul><li>Establish a new policy of information conveyance aimed specifically at preemption, prevention and mitigation. </li></ul><ul><li>Recommend an operational strategy of public warning for terrorism. </li></ul><ul><li>Incorporate existing warning systems and programs into the public warning strategy. </li></ul><ul><li>Begin an aggressive campaign to eliminate barriers to information sharing. </li></ul>
    25. 29. <ul><li>Surprise, when it happens to a government, is likely to be a complicated, diffuse, bureaucratic thing. It includes neglect of </li></ul><ul><li>responsibility, but also responsibility so poorly defined or so ambiguously delegated that action gets lost . It includes gaps in </li></ul><ul><li>intelligence , but also intelligence that, like a string of pearls too precious to wear, is too sensitive to give to those who need it . </li></ul><ul><li>It includes the alarm that fails to work , but also the alarm that has gone off so often it has been disconnected . It includes the </li></ul><ul><li>unalert watchman , but also the one who knows he'll be chewed out by his superior if he gets higher authority out of bed. It </li></ul><ul><li>includes the contingencies that occur to no one , but also those that everyone assumes somebody else is taking care of . It </li></ul><ul><li>includes straightforward procrastination , but also decisions protracted by internal disagreement . It includes, in addition, the </li></ul><ul><li>inability of individual human beings to rise to the occasion until they are sure it is the occasion-which is usually too late. . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>-Thomas Schelling ( Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision ) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>Conclusions…
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