Comparison of voters and party elites

A comparison of voters and party elites:evidence from political surveys in Greece Ioannis Andreadis Aristotle University of Thessaloniki 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Major Greek political parties• New Democracy (ND) – Right-wing conservative party (main opposition) – Has ruled Greece from 1974 to 1981, from 1990 to 1993 and from 2004 until 2009.• Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) – Left-wing socialist party (current government) – Has ruled Greece during the rest of the years 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Data Sources• Comparative Candidates Survey (CCS) – 195 ND and PASOK candidates – web based survey during the beginning of 2010• Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) – telephone interviews at the end of 2009 – 1022 filled questionnaires • 744 have answered what party they have voted for • 594 have replied that they have voted for PASOK or ND• European Parliament Election Study 2009, Voter Study (PIREDEU) 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Satisfaction with Democracy• On the whole, are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not at all satisfied with the way democracy works in Greece?• Previous research on voters – economic difficulties reduce satisfaction – gap in satisfaction with democracy between winners and losers 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Candidates’ SWD 2007-2009PASOK 2009 53%PASOK 2007 50% ND 2009 37% ND 2007 71% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% not very/not at all satisfied very/fairly satisfied 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Satisfaction with Democracy ND voters 25% ND candidates 37% PASOK voters 40%PASOK candidates 53% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% not very/not at all satisfied very/fairly satisfied 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Most important problemReported problems Voters CandidatesEconomy / 65.1% 75%Economic crisisUnemployment 15.1% 6%Wasted public 8.2% 9%money / CorruptionOther 11.6% 10% 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

What happens today? 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Greek version of Spains Indignados 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Voters’ Left-Right self-placement5045 PASOK x: 4.79, m: 5, var: 4.3 Voter positioned on 6:40 ND x: 7.4, m: 8, var: 3.5 From PASOK: |6-4.79|=1.2135 From ND: |6-7.4|=1.43025201510 5 0 Left 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Right ND voters PASOK voters 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Left/Right Placement Q1 Q2 Q3 IQR Mode M%PASOK Candidates SP 2 3 4 2 3 31,9%PASOK Candidates PP 3 4 5 2 4 36,2%PASOK Voters SP 4 5 5 1 5 47,7%PASOK Voters PP 4 5 5 1 5 46,9%ND Candidates SP 5 6 8 3 5 25,5%ND Candidates PP 6 7 8 2 8 34,0%ND Voters SP 6 8 9 3 5/10 21,5%ND Voters PP 6 8 10 4 10 25,8% 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Income and wealth should be redistributed to ordinary people ND voters ND candidates PASOK votersPASOK candidates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Politics should abstain from intervening in the economy ND voters ND candidates PASOK votersPASOK candidates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Women should be free to decide on matters of abortion ND voters ND candidates PASOK votersPASOK candidates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Same-sex marriages should be prohibited by law ND voters ND candidates PASOK votersPASOK candidates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

People who break the law should be given stiffer sentences ND voters ND candidates PASOK votersPASOK candidates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Immigrants should be required to adapt to the customs of Greece ND voters ND candidates PASOK votersPASOK candidates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Conclusions• Economic crisis is the most important problem facing Greece today (everyone)• This has affected SWD (voters and losers)• Candidates are on the left of their voters• Voters’ self placement = party placement – Economic left/right: candidates more extreme – Libertarian – authoritarian: candidates on the left of their voters• Evidence in favor of robust statistics use 1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

Comparison of voters and party elites

by Ioannis Andreadis on Jun 19, 2011

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Comparison of voters and party elites — Presentation Transcript