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The Convergence Of Transport, The Built Environment And The Smart Grid by John Thornton

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EV Activity in Oregon: Two weeks ago: Oregon EV Charging Network RFP Last week: Nissan Think Ford “advanced” hybrid Next week: Mitsubishi Ongoing: Local activity Vehicle electrification has emerged as the dominant new trend in the Auto sector with dozens of electric vehicles in the development pipeline RMI – Smart Garage Charratte report: “ Smart Garage could do for electricity and mobility what TIVO did for broadcast media, letting you choose the energy you want to use, when and where you want to use it, both in your car and in your building” RMI - Smart Garage Charratte pre-read (v2.0, Oct-2008) “ Electrified vehicles could be the “killer application” for Smart Grid. A coordinated rollout of electrified vehicles could help push utilities and PUCs toward implementing the Smart Grid faster. The vehicles are unique as energy-using “appliances” in the amount of power they draw, their mobility, their ability to discharge and charge, and the fact that they don’t need to be charging every moment they are plugged in. Electrified vehicles could also be an important lever in getting consumers to pay more attention to the way their energy use choices affect the grid, an important component of the Smart Grid.” Confidential & Proprietary

Confidential & Proprietary

Confidential & Proprietary

This model is the foundation for understanding high-tech market development . based on research conducted at Harvard, dating back to late 1950’s, continuing basis of research under category of diffusion of innovation This model predicts that whenever a market is exposed to a discontinuous innovation, customers will self-agregate into five different response profiles. For high-tech markets, these five response profiles have proved remarkably consistent over the years. Each is based on a different attitude towards discontinuity, as follows:

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The Convergence Of Transport, The Built Environment And The Smart Grid by John Thornton - Presentation Transcript

    • The Convergence of Transport, the Built Environment
    • and the Smart Grid
    John A. Thornton Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities Portland State University PA 510 / Spring 2009 Portland, Oregon USA April 13, 2009 EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  2. EVs - Killer App for Smart Grid?
    • “ Electrified vehicles could be the “killer application” for Smart Grid. A coordinated rollout of electrified vehicles could help push utilities and PUCs toward implementing the Smart Grid faster. The vehicles are unique as energy-using “appliances” in the amount of power they draw, their mobility, their ability to discharge and charge, and the fact that they don’t need to be charging every moment they are plugged in. Electrified vehicles could also be an important lever in getting consumers to pay more attention to the way their energy use choices affect the grid, an important component of the Smart Grid.”
    • RMI - Smart Garage Charratte pre-read (v2.0, Oct-2008)
    • “ Smart Garage could do for electricity and mobility what TIVO did for broadcast media, letting you choose the energy you want to use, when and where you want to use it, both in your car and in your building”
    • RMI – Smart Garage Charratte report
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  3. Agenda
    • Background
    • Electrification of Automobile
    • Sustainability imperative
      • Environmental, economic, energy independence/geopolitical (and other) rational
    • Grid Impacts of EV Deployment
    • Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) concept
    • xEV, Buildings and Grid Interconnection Scenarios
    • Case Study
    • Appendix: Market behavior towards new technologies
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  4. Affiliations & Disclaimer The author’s views do not necessarily represent the views of the Porteon or Apex
  5.  
  6.  
  7.  
  8. Technology Transformation xEV Transformation Dirty “ Old” technology Inefficient Clean “ New” technology Efficient EV PHEV NEV FCEV etc., etc. Hybrid (HEV) Tiny Explosions inside engine EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  9. Internal Combustion Engine http://auto.howstuffworks.com/engine1.htm http://auto.howstuffworks.com/engine2.htm Fuel Air Heat CO2 Pollutants Work Efficiency: Resource-to- Wheels ~ 18% EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  10. Comparison of Drivetrain Technologies:
    • Internal combustion engine ( ICE )
    • Hybrid gas-electric vehicle ( HEV )
    • Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle ( PHEV )
    • Battery electric vehicle ( EV )
    • Hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicle ( FCEV )
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
    • Flavors:
    • Hybrid
    Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Courtesy Electric Drive Transportation Association Efficiency: Resource-to- Wheels ~ 25% EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  12. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Flavors: Plug-in Electric Plug-in Hybrid PHEV20, ….. EREV – Extended Range EV Efficiency: Resource-to- Wheels ~ 22% to 39% Courtesy Electric Drive Transportation Association EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  13. Electric Vehicle (EV) Flavors: Plug-in Electric Plug-in Vehicle EV BEV Efficiency: Resource-to- Wheels ~ 39% Courtesy Electric Drive Transportation Association EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  14. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) Efficiency: Resource-to- Wheels ~ 14% Courtesy Electric Drive Transportation Association EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  15. Conversions
    • Initially limited to technology enthusiasts and hobbyists
      • Retrofit & replace ICE with electric powertrain
      • Customized and small volume
    • Emergence of Aftermarket conversion segment
      • PHEV conversion
        • Example: Prius
          • Remove spare tire and install secondary battery for electric only range AND other modifications.
      • Other specialty conversions
      • Hybridization of ICE, PHEV and other
    • Viability, value and reliability(?)
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  16. Drivetrain Electrification Storage Continuum EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  17. CONFIDENTIAL Courtesy Electric Drive Transportation Association Transportation Problems Air Quality Air Quality Land Use Land Use Population Growth Population Growth Congestion Congestion Fuel Prices Fuel Prices
  18. CONFIDENTIAL Air Quality Air Quality Land Use Land Use Population Growth Population Growth Congestion Congestion Climate Change Energy Supply Climate Change Energy Supply Transportation Problems EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us X X Fuel Prices Fuel Prices
  19. EVs as a Sustainability Solution Residential Commercial Electric Power EVs and PHEVs diversify energy supply Electricity is a cleaner “fuel” EVs and PHEVs have lower Wells-to-wheels impact Off-peak capacity Energy can come from renewable sources (RPS) EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  20. EVs as a Sustainability Solution Residential Commercial Electric Power EVs and PHEVs diversify energy supply Electricity is a cleaner “fuel” EVs and PHEVs have lower Wells-to-wheels impact Off-peak capacity Energy can come from renewable sources (RPS) EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  21. Electricity – Growing Greener: Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) Source: Pew Center for Global Climate Change (September 2008) http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/rps.cfm OR: 25% by 2025 WA: 15% by 2020 CA: 20% by 2010 NV: 20% by 2015 AZ: 15% by 2025 MT: 15% by 2015 EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  22. xEV, Building and Grid Interconnection Scenarios
    • V0G - Vehicle starts to charge as soon as it is plugged in, like an appliance
    • TC (Timed Charge) – vehicle charges at a given time.
    • V1G (Smart Charging) – vehicle charges with intelligence.
      • V1.0G – Smart Charge controls and user-interface (UI) on vehicle
      • V1.5G – Smart Charging with off-board communication – DR or limited A/S
    • V2B (Vehicle-to-Building): like V2G, except with building (not grid). “Microgrid-like application”
    • V2G (Vehicle-to-Grid): like V1G, except the car can discharge energy back to grid.
    • V2G NGU: V2G but in the future, when the grid has become smarter and more reliant on renewables, efficiency, etc.
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  23. EV Connectivity Content
  24. Smart Charging
    • Smart Charging refers to a spectrum of technologies that involve plug‐in vehicles, either plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) or dedicated electric vehicles (EV), together referred to as plug‐in vehicles, interacting with the electrical grid beyond simple charging of the vehicle batteries.
    • Time-of-day charging
    • Time‐of‐use rates
    • Smart “Fill” Charging
    • Demand response programs
    • Critical Peak Pricing
    • Charger “load”shaping
      • To maximize capture of renewable generation
    • Vehicle to Home (V2H)
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  25. Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) – Bi-directional Energy Concept California ISO By 2020 there could be 1 million vehicles with electrical storage capability of 10,000 MW (@ 10 kW each) EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  26. Battery Considerations
    • Batteries have a finite cycle life
      • Lifecycle cost
    • V2G for baseload does not make sense
    • Different battery types have differing characteristics
    www.electricitystorage.org EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  27. How Vehicles Can Provide Services
    • Vehicles, by their numbers, represent enormous power and energy storage potential
    • Electric vehicle charge stations: grid connection points for power and ancillary services delivery
    • Vehicles can respond very fast compared to power plants
    • Vehicles could provide Ancillary Services (A/S):
      • Frequency regulation (automatic generation control - AGC)
      • Extra power during demand peaks
      • Spinning reserves
      • Uninterruptible power source for businesses and homes
      • Active stability control of transmission lines
      • Dispatchable reactive power
    • Demand Response
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  28. Enabling Technologies
    • Vehicle-to-grid Communication Interface
      • uni-directional power interface (regulation up)
      • bi-directional power interface (regulation up & down)
    • Wireless internet communication
    • Global Positioning System (GPS)
    • Systems for tracking a large number of small transactions
    • Vehicle interconnection standards
    • Bi-directional energy metering at the retail level
    • Appropriate tariffs
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  29. Enabling Technologies, Regulations, and Standards
    • Vehicle-to-grid Communication Interface
      • Uni-directional power interface (regulation up)
      • bi-directional power interface (regulation up & down)
    • Wireless internet communication
    • Global Positioning System (GPS)
    • Systems for tracking a large number of small transactions
    • Vehicle interconnection standards
    • Bi-directional energy metering at the retail level
    • Appropriate tariffs
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  30. Example: Frequency Regulation Ancillary Service ISO Goals: Load = Power Generated Power < Load: Frequency drops under 60 Hz. Power > Load: Frequency rises over 60 Hz.
    • Regulation is the continuous matching of supply with demand in a control area
    • Area Control Error (ACE) is a measure of quality of operation of the grid
    • ACE includes a frequency regulation component
    • Powerplants provide regulation today
      • Slow response
    • Real-time control of power plant output by grid operator
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  31. Increasing Need for Frequency Regulation: CAL ISO Study Source: Integration of Renewable Resources. California Independent System Operation. November 2007
  32. U.S. Markets for Regulation Services
    • Open frequency regulation markets: >$680 million (2007)
    • Midwest ISO market opening up
    • With MISO, open markets should be >$1 billion
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  33. Case Study: Regulation Services
    • Collaborating on a project in ISO NE Advanced Technology Regulation (ATR) Project
    • First time that cars will be paid for regulation services
      • 100 kW minimum (up and down)
        • Standby payment
        • mileage payment
          • +100 kW up and 100 kW down (baseline) and 100 kW down = 300 kW
            • Very kind market
            • If fail to perform, then not paid (not penalized)
        • Opportunity cost payment
      • To evaluate new technologies
    • Project purpose: Demonstrate commercial viability for Rhode Island Wind project (large scale offshore).
      • Collect data on small fleet under ATR pilot project
      • Field test 200-300 vehicles for further development under ATR
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  34. Case Study – Smart Grid Eco-community
    • Deep green epicenter – to test the Smart Grid
    • Industrial park and mixed-use new urbanist community (650+ acres)
    • 1000+ homes, create the jobs first inside eco-industrial park
    • Deploy 12 each 2.5 MW turbines within the development (owned by developer, along with other infrastructure)
    • People live near where they work, incentive for people to keep their vehicles plugged in
      • “ Turning the incentives that created urban sprawl on its head.”
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  35. Conclusions
    • Transformation to electric transportation
    • Smart Charging (V1G) is necessary
      • Precursor to V2G
    • V2G is a longer term opportunity
      • Viability associated with “higher value” services
    EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  36. For Questions or More Information: [email_address] or john@cleanfuture.us Phone: 503-806-1760 EVs and Smart Grid / Designing the Smart Grid for Sustainable Communities – Portland State University John Thornton / www.cleanfuture.us
  37. Appendix
    • Reference materials from earlier class discussion topic
  38. Technology Adoption Frameworks
    • Response Profiles to Innovation
      • Diffusion of Innovation
        • Everett Rogers
      • Discontinuous Innovation
        • Geoffrey Moore
    • Disruptive Technology
      • Clayton Christenson
  39. Technology Adoption Life Cycle Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards The Technology Adoption Life Cycle models market acceptance of discontinuous innovations.
  40. Technology Adoption Life Cycle Innovators Technology Enthusiasts Techies: Try it! Pragmatists: Stick with the herd! Conservatives: Hold on! Skeptics: No way! Visionaries: Get ahead of the herd! Early Adopters Visionaries Early Majority Pragmatists Late Majority Conservatives Laggards Skeptics
  41. Response Profiles
    • Innovators - technology enthusiasts who look at anything new, explore new opportunities
    • Early adopters - visionaries who see how it can be useful, seeks to gain competitive advantage
    • Early Majority - Pragmatists who believe in evolution not revolution, tend to support market leaders
    • Late Majority - Conservatives who only buy what has been simplified. Happier with status quo
    • Laggards - Skeptics who take pride in criticizing/rejecting technology

+ John ThorntonJohn Thornton, 6 months ago

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