Perspectives on the Future of Transportation and Sustainability Oregon’s Role in the Emerging Electric Vehicle (EV) Industry John Thornton Vice President of Manufacturing & Supply Chain Porteon Electric Vehicles Oregon SAE Luncheon Meeting February 29, 2008

Perspectives on the Future of Transportation and Sustainability

Oregon’s Role in the Emerging Electric Vehicle (EV) Industry

Context: Why are electric vehicles (EVs) important? What are the benefits of an electric vehicle (EV)? What does it take to build a practical electric car for families? Will EVs require new infrastructure? Will EVs require new technology? Oregon’s prospects in the emerging EV market. Topics

Context: Why are electric vehicles (EVs) important?

What are the benefits of an electric vehicle (EV)?

What does it take to build a practical electric car for families?

Will EVs require new infrastructure?

Will EVs require new technology?

Oregon’s prospects in the emerging EV market.

Transportation Problems CONFIDENTIAL Air Quality Air Quality Land Use Land Use Population Growth Population Growth Congestion Congestion Fuel Prices Fuel Prices

Transportation Problems CONFIDENTIAL Air Quality Air Quality Land Use Land Use Population Growth Population Growth Congestion Congestion Climate Change Energy Supply Climate Change Energy Supply X X Fuel Prices Fuel Prices

Schafer A, Victor D. The future mobility of the world population. Transportation Research Part A 2000;34:171-205. Mobility: History & Projections

IEA Key world energy statistics 2005. IEA, Paris. See also: http://www.iea.org/dbtwwpd/Textbase/nppdf/free/2005/key2005.pdf Global Transportation Energy Consumption by Fuel

Electricity as the Ultimate Flexible Fuel Energy Carrier Liquid Fuels Electricity Hydrogen

Electricity as the Ultimate Flexible Fuel Energy Resource Conversion Energy Carrier Oil (Conventional) Oil (Non-conventional) Biomass Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Syngas Renewables (Wave, Tidal, Geo, Solar, Wind) Liquid Fuels Electricity Hydrogen

Electricity as the Ultimate Flexible Fuel Energy Resource Conversion Energy Carrier Propulsion System Oil (Conventional) Oil (Non-conventional) Biomass Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Conventional ICE: Gasoline/Diesel ICE Hybrid (HEV) Plug-in Hybrid ICE (PHEV–Parallel) Extended Range EV: (PHEV–Serial) Battery Electric (EV) Fuel Cell Electric (FCEV) Battery Syngas Renewables (Wave, Tidal, Geo, Solar, Wind) Electrification Liquid Fuels Electricity Hydrogen

Electricity as the Ultimate Flexible Fuel Energy Resource Conversion Energy Carrier Propulsion System Oil (Conventional) Oil (Non-conventional) Biomass Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Conventional ICE: Gasoline/Diesel ICE Hybrid (HEV) Plug-in Hybrid ICE (PHEV–Parallel) Fuel Cell Electric (FCEV) Battery Syngas Electrification Liquid Fuels Electricity Hydrogen Extended Range EV: (PHEV–Serial) Battery Electric (EV) Renewables (Wave, Tidal, Geo, Solar, Wind) Electricity Extended Range EV: (PHEV–Serial) Battery Electric (EV) Renewables (Wave, Tidal, Geo, Solar, Wind)

US annual CO2 output emission rate (lb/MWh) Electricity – Growing Greener

US annual CO2 output emission rate

(lb/MWh)

US annual CO2 output emission rate (lb/MWh) Electricity – Growing Greener

US annual CO2 output emission rate

(lb/MWh)

Electricity – Growing Greener: Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) WA: 15% by 2020 Source: Pew Center for Global Climate Change (September 2008) http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/rps.cfm OR: 25% by 2025 CA: 20% by 2010 NV: 20% by 2015 AZ: 15% by 2025 MT: 15% by 2015

Electricity – Growing Greener:

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

WA: 15% by 2020

Comparison of Energy Crops vs. Electricity

Comparison of Energy Crops vs. Electricity Source: Photon International, April 2007 An average-sized soccer field is 0.75 ha 1 ha is equal to 100 x 100 m 10,000 m 2

Comparison of Energy Crops vs. Electricity 0 *1 Average usage 16kWh/100 km *2 Average usage 7.4 I/100 km fuel equivalent *3 Average usage 6.5 I/100 km fuel equivalent 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 biodiesel* 3 21,500 km bioethanol (from wheat)* 2 22,500 km 60,000 km 67,000 km biomass to liquid* 3 biogas (from corn)* 2 Source: Photon International, April 2007 An average-sized soccer field is 0.75 ha 1 ha is equal to 100 x 100 m 10,000 m 2

Comparison of Energy Crops vs. Electricity 0 *1 Average usage 16kWh/100 km *2 Average usage 7.4 I/100 km fuel equivalent *3 Average usage 6.5 I/100 km fuel equivalent 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 biodiesel* 3 21,500 km bioethanol (from wheat)* 2 22,500 km 60,000 km 67,000 km biomass to liquid* 3 biogas (from corn)* 2 200,000 electricity (Plug-in Hybrid operation)* 1 3,250,000 km Source: Photon International, April 2007 An average-sized soccer field is 0.75 ha 1 ha is equal to 100 x 100 m 10,000 m 2

Comparison of Energy Crops vs. Electricity 0 *1 Average usage 16kWh/100 km *2 Average usage 7.4 I/100 km fuel equivalent *3 Average usage 6.5 I/100 km fuel equivalent 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 biodiesel* 3 21,500 km bioethanol (from wheat)* 2 22,500 km 60,000 km 67,000 km biomass to liquid* 3 biogas (from corn)* 2 200,000 electricity (Plug-in Hybrid operation)* 1 3,250,000 km Source: Photon International, April 2007 An average-sized soccer field is 0.75 ha 1 ha is equal to 100 x 100 m 10,000 m 2

IEA Key world energy statistics 2005. IEA, Paris. See also: http://www.iea.org/dbtwwpd/Textbase/nppdf/free/2005/key2005.pdf Transportation Energy Use by Transport Mode (US)

1. Aviation 8.4 % 2. Petrochemicals 3. Maritime shipping 4.5 % 4. Long haul trucks 19.1 % 5. Rail transport 0.7 % 6. Long trips by car 7. Commuting 61.4 % 8. Picking up the kids (local trips) 9. Driving a Hummer Petroleum: A Hierarchy of Requirements vs. Available Substitutes 8.4 % 4.5 % 19.1 % 0.7 % 61.4 %

1. Aviation 8.4 %

2. Petrochemicals

3. Maritime shipping 4.5 %

4. Long haul trucks 19.1 %

5. Rail transport 0.7 %

6. Long trips by car

7. Commuting 61.4 %

8. Picking up the kids (local trips)

9. Driving a Hummer

Source: US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS), Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA, 1991 National Personal Transportation Survey 1990 Personal Vehicle Miles Driven Daily % of Automobiles Miles 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 30 60 90 120 150 >155 50% drive 25 miles a day or less Approximately 80% drive 50 miles a day or less Drivers in the United States average 25 miles or less per day. – U.S. Dept. of Transportation Data

Propulsive Energy Requirements – Various Modes

Propulsive Energy Requirements – Various Modes

Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule (UDDS)

Acceleration Consumes Energy

Regenerative Braking Recovers Energy

Mass Consumes Power (and Energy) Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW), lbs. Power (kW) Assumptions: Gear train efficiency 90% Fixed transmission losses 1 ft-lb Cd .3 A = 22 sq ft Rf .8% Speed 35mph Grade 1.5%

Mass Consumes Power (and Energy)

Mass Efficiency Automobile Passenger Aircraft Commercial Rail Urban Bus High Speed Rail Freight Truck Freight Rail Cargo Ship Bicycle Gross Moving Mass (Tonnes) Mass Efficiency

Increasing Mass Efficiency in Cars Automobile Passenger Aircraft Commercial Rail Urban Bus High Speed Rail Freight Truck Freight Rail Cargo Ship Bicycle Gross Moving Mass (Tonnes) Mass Efficiency

Energy Efficient Mass reduction Lightweight materials – aluminum, advanced composites Smaller size, compact Electric power train Increased efficiency Regeneration Functional Operating range matched with actual use “ Right-size” the vehicle for typical use profile (including energy system) Appealing (curb appeal) Distinctive design Fun / Performance Affordable Acquisition cost Operating cost Conclusion: EVs as a Practical Car For Families

Energy Efficient

Mass reduction

Lightweight materials – aluminum, advanced composites

Smaller size, compact

Electric power train

Increased efficiency

Regeneration

Functional

Operating range matched with actual use

“ Right-size” the vehicle for typical use profile (including energy system)

Appealing (curb appeal)

Distinctive design

Fun / Performance

Affordable

Acquisition cost

Operating cost

Existing Infrastructure Infrastructure

Existing Infrastructure

Efficiency Light Weight Energy Storage Future Technologies

Efficiency

Light Weight

Energy Storage

Vehicle to Grid (V 2 G), Grid to Vehicle (G 2 V) and V 2 H

www.porteon.net

Oregon – Early Adopters of Advanced Transportation Technology Metropolitan areas where hybrids are most popular

Oregon – Early Adopters of Advanced Transportation Technology

Suggested Reading A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World – Peter Tertzakian Time for a Model Change: Re-engineering the Global Automotive Industry – Graeme P. Maxton and John Wormald The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail – Clayton M. Christensen ZOOM: The Global Race to Fuel the Car of the Future – Iain Carson and Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran Crossing the Chasm – Geoffrey A. Moore

Questions & Answers Contact: [email_address] [email_address] Phone: +001 – 503–806-1760

Contact:

[email_address]

[email_address]

Phone: +001 – 503–806-1760