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Department of Employment, Economic Development and InnovationThe expected value of seasonal stream-flow forecasts to a gra...
Overview       • Seasonal stream flow forecasts       • Whole-farm economic modelling of         irrigated grain/cotton fa...
Seasonal streamflow forecasts       www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic ...
Forecast skill© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011   4
What is APSIM?        A farming systems model created …        • to model the farming system performance over          tim...
APSIM                                                                                                 Manager             ...
Irrigated APSIM farms                                                   Crops                                             ...
Case studies                              Planting window: Sep 15 – Oct 15                                     Stored wate...
Validation© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011   9
Validation© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011   10
Dalby case study farm                                                                          Dalby© The State of Queensl...
Dalby case study farm      •       Total cropping area - 615ha      •       Furrow irrigation      •       3 Storages - 24...
IQQM modelled Condamine river flow© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation...
Proxy streamflow forecasts       • Streamflow forecasts not currently         available in QLD (available from July       ...
Oct NINO3 index                        Summer (DJF) rainfall                                                              ...
Change in management      • Vary cotton area based on the streamflow prediction      • Assumed monoculture cotton for simp...
Results                  High flow seasons                                                              All seasons       ...
What next?       •       Realistic crop rotations       •       Implication for risk       •       Different farms and riv...
Summary:      • Seasonal stream flow forecasts      • Whole-farm economic modelling of        irrigated grain/cotton farms...
Thanks.        References        • Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2010) Information sheet 9 Streamflow           foreca...
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The expected value of seasonal streamflow forecasts to a grain-cotton irrigator in the Condomine-Balone catchment. Brendan Power

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A presentation from the WCCA 2011 event held in Brisbane, Australia.

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Transcript of "The expected value of seasonal streamflow forecasts to a grain-cotton irrigator in the Condomine-Balone catchment. Brendan Power"

  1. 1. Department of Employment, Economic Development and InnovationThe expected value of seasonal stream-flow forecasts to a grain-cotton irrigator in the Condamine-Balonne catchment. Brendan Power, Daniel Rodriguez, Jeff Perkins and Claire Hawksworth
  2. 2. Overview • Seasonal stream flow forecasts • Whole-farm economic modelling of irrigated grain/cotton farms with APSIM • Case study results© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 2
  3. 3. Seasonal streamflow forecasts www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 3
  4. 4. Forecast skill© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 4
  5. 5. What is APSIM? A farming systems model created … • to model the farming system performance over time • with equal emphasis on crop and soil dimensions of agricultural systems • with a capability to deal comprehensively with management – e.g. planting times, N, irrigation • wide scope of application, from genetics (breeding) through farming systems to policy.© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 5
  6. 6. APSIM Manager Soilwat SoilPH Paddock SoilN SoilWat SWIM SurfaceOM SoilP Chickpea Maize Erosion Wheat© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 6
  7. 7. Irrigated APSIM farms Crops Crops Crops Residue Residue Crops Residue Weeds Weeds paddock2 paddock3 Residue Soil Soil Weeds paddock1 paddock4 Weeds Soil Soil Waters Pump cap. Met Water storages Farm sources Economics Manager SoilSoilwat Soil paddock8 paddock5 Weeds SoilN Weeds Residue Residue Soil Soil paddock7 paddock6 Crops Crops Weeds Weeds Residue Residue Crops Crops© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 7
  8. 8. Case studies Planting window: Sep 15 – Oct 15 Stored water > 4ML/ha Existing farm area planted to maize or sorghum less than 50% Planting window: Oct 16 – Jan 15 Rain over 4 days > 25mm ESW > 150mm maize or sorghum area < 50% Oct 15 – Nov15 Stored water > 4ML/ha cotton area < 50%© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 8
  9. 9. Validation© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 9
  10. 10. Validation© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 10
  11. 11. Dalby case study farm Dalby© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 11
  12. 12. Dalby case study farm • Total cropping area - 615ha • Furrow irrigation • 3 Storages - 2400 ML at 70ML/day • Sources of water – On-farm runoff – Off-farm overland flow ~tr(0,200,400) ML/yr – Bores (172ML/yr at 12ML/day) – River flow© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 12
  13. 13. IQQM modelled Condamine river flow© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 13
  14. 14. Proxy streamflow forecasts • Streamflow forecasts not currently available in QLD (available from July 2012) • The NINO3 index with a 2 month lag has the best skill at predicting summer (DJF) rainfall at Dalby (Schepen et al., 2011) . • NINO3 index used as a proxy forecast for Condamine River flows.© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 14
  15. 15. Oct NINO3 index Summer (DJF) rainfall Summer (DJF) river flowsProbability Probability Positive forecast Negative forecast Positive forecast No forecast Negative forecast No forecast River flow (ML) Rainfall (mm) © The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 15
  16. 16. Change in management • Vary cotton area based on the streamflow prediction • Assumed monoculture cotton for simplicity • Cotton area depends on the amount of stored water at sowing • Optimised the cotton sowing rule based on NINO3 values w.r.t. required stored water (ML/ha) at sowing. • Results: – Positive NINO3 predictions - 0 ML/ha (ie plant entire farm to cotton) – Negative NINO3 – no change in management (ie 4 ML/ha) – 20 out of 51 years predicted high river flows.© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 16
  17. 17. Results High flow seasons All seasons AU$31,000/year Current management Current management Adaptive management Adaptive management© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 17
  18. 18. What next? • Realistic crop rotations • Implication for risk • Different farms and rivers • Out-of-sample tests • Environmental trade-offs© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 18
  19. 19. Summary: • Seasonal stream flow forecasts • Whole-farm economic modelling of irrigated grain/cotton farms with APSIM • Case study results© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 19
  20. 20. Thanks. References • Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2010) Information sheet 9 Streamflow forecasting: Days to seasons, Australian Government, retrieved from www.bom.gov.au/water/about/publications/document/InfoSheet_9.pdf • Hammer GL, Nicholls N, Mitchell C (2000) Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience. Kluwer Academic, • Power B, Rodriguez D, deVoil P, Harris G, Payero J (2011) A multi-field bio- economic model of irrigated grain-cotton farming systems. Field Crop Res. • Schepen A, Wang QJ, Robertson D, (2011) Evidence for using climate indices to forecast Australian seasonal rainfall, J. Climate. • The State of Queensland (DERM) (2010). Integrated Quantity and Quality Model (IQQM) output data for the Condamine Balonne ROP www.derm.qld.gov.au© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2011 20
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