Reducing the cost of complexity for greaterfarming system changeRick LlewellynCSIRO, Waite Campus
Increasing value of convenience• Trends in farm businesses and management• Implications for agricultural innovation and te...
Farm business trends            Increasing farm size         Less managers per hectare          Greater land use intensity...
Management constraints affecting farm productivity- Management constraints a major factor limiting farm productivity growt...
Examples from Australian crop-livestock farming                    No-shear sheep                    (or no sheep)        ...
Convenience in a bag:Herbicide tolerant soybean, US                                       Non-                            ...
Embodied innovationsEmbodied innovations:The benefits are obtained relatively simply through its direct use.Benefits can b...
RR Soybean: the growing value of convenience                                                        • Evidence that grower...
No-till adoption in Australian cropping regions                            100%                            90%            ...
No-till adoption in Australian cropping regions                          100%                          90%                ...
Factors influencing no-till adoption rate        Use of crop consultant                                                   ...
No-till adoption in Australian cropping regions                        100%                        90%                    ...
Adoption of no-till systems• No-till system has complex demands• Information and knowledge intensive (NT groups)• Not an e...
Convenience, complexity and advisor supportaffecting peak adoption, not just ratePersonalcharacteristics;                 ...
Adoption of variable rate fertiliser in Australian        grain growing regions                                       Have...
Adoption of variable rate fertiliser in Australian        grain growing regions                                       Have...
From complexity to convenience?
The role for research
The R&D challenge: the case of PA                         Expected profitability alone not                         leading...
Finally• Role for ‘advisor-technology synergy’  • Innovation can be complex, but supported by advisors  • Research aimed a...
THANK YOU
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Reducing the cost of complexity for greater farming system change. Rick Llewellyn

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A presentation from the WCCA 2011 event held in Brisbane, Australia.

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Transcript of "Reducing the cost of complexity for greater farming system change. Rick Llewellyn"

  1. 1. Reducing the cost of complexity for greaterfarming system changeRick LlewellynCSIRO, Waite Campus
  2. 2. Increasing value of convenience• Trends in farm businesses and management• Implications for agricultural innovation and technologies • Value of convenience • Cost of complexity• Challenge for R&D • Shift in drivers of relative advantage • Potential for innovation-advisor synergy • Expanding research role in innovation development process
  3. 3. Farm business trends Increasing farm size Less managers per hectare Greater land use intensity More management demandsLess available labour & management attention
  4. 4. Management constraints affecting farm productivity- Management constraints a major factor limiting farm productivity growth and technical efficiency- Management constraints leading to widening gap in farm efficiency (ABARE, 2010; Hughes et al., 2011)Increasing research recognition of complexity and labour constraints in farming systems (Kingwell 2011; Doole et al 2009) Lucerne increases whole farm profitability by 3% but increases management time by 9%
  5. 5. Examples from Australian crop-livestock farming No-shear sheep (or no sheep) Autosteer/ GPS Guidance
  6. 6. Convenience in a bag:Herbicide tolerant soybean, US Non- pecuniary embodied benefits: simplicity; flexibility Piggot and Marra 2008
  7. 7. Embodied innovationsEmbodied innovations:The benefits are obtained relatively simply through its direct use.Benefits can be attributed simply and directly(e.g. new disease resistant crop; autosteer)Non-embodied innovations:Usually information-intensive. Ongoing decisions and management are needed to benefit from the technologyRequire higher levels of management capacity to gain full value - skills, education, advisory support(e.g. monitoring tools; variable rate technology; soil tests)
  8. 8. RR Soybean: the growing value of convenience • Evidence that growers become accustomed to convenience • More inelastic demand • Willing to pay higher prices for embodied convenience • Less willing to shift away from embodied convenience • Shifts in farm labour allocation; IWM reluctancePiggot and Marra 2008 +Uematsu et al 2010; Fernande z-Cornejo et al 2005.
  9. 9. No-till adoption in Australian cropping regions 100% 90% 80% 70% % no-till adoption 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 WA Central / Eastern Wheatbelt WA MidlandsLlewellyn & D’Emden 2010 WA Northern Wheatbelt WA SE Central Wheatbelt
  10. 10. No-till adoption in Australian cropping regions 100% 90% 80% 70% % no-till adoption 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20Llewellyn & D’EmdenEastern Wheatbelt WA Central / 2010 WA Midlands
  11. 11. Factors influencing no-till adoption rate Use of crop consultant From Logit & Higher education Duration analysis Higher participation in extension activities Years since first awareness of nearby no-till adopter Prior year much drier than average Perceived soil moisture conserving benefits and improved seeding timeliness Effectiveness of pre-emergent weed control (perceived) Relative price of glyphosate herbicide Location (region/state) and average rainfallD’ Emden et al. 2007 (SA, Vic, NSW, WA 2003) ; 82% of decisions correctly predicted – 2003 use
  12. 12. No-till adoption in Australian cropping regions 100% 90% Logit analysis of no- 80% till use & extensive use (>90% crop 70% area) % no-till adoption 60% 50% Growers without a 40% crop consultant are 30% less than ½ as likely to be no-till adopters. 20% 10% 0% 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20Llewellyn WA Central / Eastern Wheatbelt & D’Emden (2010) ; 2008 use WA Midlands
  13. 13. Adoption of no-till systems• No-till system has complex demands• Information and knowledge intensive (NT groups)• Not an embodied technology, but advisor support evolved• Advisors have had a substantial role – ongoing• Agronomic constraints to more extensive use (perceptions): • Disease
  14. 14. Convenience, complexity and advisor supportaffecting peak adoption, not just ratePersonalcharacteristics; Actuallearning-related relativecharacteristics; advantageextension; actualrelative advantage Early Late majority majority Time
  15. 15. Adoption of variable rate fertiliser in Australian grain growing regions Have yield map Varying fertiliser Region (%) rates on zones and yield map (%) Central 20 7 Lower EP 32 10 SA Upper EP 20 5 Western EP 8 3 Mallee 17 9 Mallee 24 18 VIC Wimmera 23 4 WA Central 40 9Robertson, Llewellyn et al 2011 (2008 use)
  16. 16. Adoption of variable rate fertiliser in Australian grain growing regions Have yield map Varying fertiliser Region (%) rates on zones and yield map (%) Central 20 7 Lower EP 32 10 SA Upper EP 20 5 Western EP 8 3 Mallee 17 9 Mallee 24 18 VIC Wimmera 23 4 WA Central 40 9 Consultant use 2x *** Logistic adoption model of VRRobertson, Llewellyn et al 2011 (2008 use)
  17. 17. From complexity to convenience?
  18. 18. The role for research
  19. 19. The R&D challenge: the case of PA Expected profitability alone not leading to high adoption Complexity and inconvenience A role for research not just extension Overcoming low ‘adoption’ by advisors
  20. 20. Finally• Role for ‘advisor-technology synergy’ • Innovation can be complex, but supported by advisors • Research aimed at developing relative advantage for advisors & farmers• Management time scarcity increasingly affecting relative advantage • Cannot be ignored in full economic analyses (whole- farm) • Increasing value of ‘convenience agriculture’ 9% management attention Vs 3% profit increase?
  21. 21. THANK YOU
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