I would opt for a slide with aims and needs instead of outline. This will attract attention on how this is incorporated. I included policy although it is not that important in this case.
Assessing the adaptation of arable farmers to climate change using DEA and bio-economic modeling. Argyris Kanellopoulos
Assessing the adaptation of arable farmers to climate change using DEA and bio-economic modeling Argyris Kanellopoulos, Joost Wolf, Maryia Mandryk, Pytrik Reidsma, Ben Schaap and Martin Van Ittersum Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands* Corresponding author : Argyris Kanellopoulos (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Aims and needs o Explore adaptation measures at farm level o Consider • Current farm practices • CC impact in context of changes in technology, markets • Extreme events in addition to gradual change • Price volatility • Variation among individual farms • Investment decisions
Methods: modeling framework CAPRI 4 1 3 7 Base FSSIM Scenarios DEA FSSIM year1. Outputs = (inputs) 5 62. PMP calibration 23. Non linear cost function WOFOST ACC4. Expected price changes5. Yield changes6. Extreme events & adaptation7. Economic , environmental indicators
Application: study areao Study area = Flevoland (the Netherlands)o Mainly, modern arable and dairy systemso Data from 85 individual arable farms (FADN 2001-2006)o Assess adaptation of arable farmers in a globalized economy with strong temperature rise scenario (A1W) towards 2050
Application: yield changes o A1W2050 : Climate change o A1W2050+: Climate change + technological development Based on WOFOST
Application: extremes and adaptation measures Extreme events: o Dry conditions in spring and summer o Prolonged wet conditions in spring Based on ACC
Results: Inputs% change from current situation Without tech. change With tech. change
Results: Outputs % change from current situation Without tech. change With tech. change (tons) (tons) (tons) (tons) (€) (€) (€) (€)
Discussion and Conclusions o Prices and expected yield changes (because of increased CO2 concentration and earlier sowing dates) are the most important driving factors o Extreme events pose risks but have relatively low effect on average yields and input levels o Existence of Improved varieties compete adoption of other adaptation strategies o Adaptation measures are more likely to be adopted by large farmers (capital availability) o In general, farmers in Flevoland are currently technically efficient.