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Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards
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Agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. Lauren Rickards

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Presentation from the WCCA 2011 conference in Brisbane, Australia.

Presentation from the WCCA 2011 conference in Brisbane, Australia.

Published in: Education, Technology
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  1. Agricultural adaptation to climate change:Acknowledging different framesLauren Rickards, University of MelbourneCo-authors: Peter Hayman, Richard Eckard
  2. OVERVIEW Ambiguity about CC adaptation and the importance of framing Three example issues 1. The relationship b/w anthropogenic CC & natural CV 2. How adaptation success is defined 3. The relevance of different forms of knowledge Conclusions
  3. OVERVIEW Ambiguity about CC adaptation and the importance of framing Three example issues 1. The relationship b/w anthropogenic CC & natural CV 2. How adaptation success is defined 3. The relevance of different forms of knowledge Conclusions
  4. AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATION Adaptation is a continuous process of: 1. Signal detection 2. Evaluation of relative risks 3. Decision whether and how to act 4. Implementation of decision 5. Detection of relevant feedback 6. Re-evaluation of strategy Each step involves framing and barriers
  5. AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATIONMoser S. &Ekstrom, J. (2010) ‘[Climate change] adaptation involves‘A framework todiagnose barriers to changes in social-ecological systems inclimate changeadaptation’,PNAS 107(51): response to actual and expected impacts of22026-22031 climate change in the context of interacting non-climatic changes’.
  6. AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATIONMoser S. &Ekstrom, J. (2010) ‘Adaptation strategies and actions can range‘A framework todiagnose barriers to from short-term coping to longer-climate changeadaptation’,PNAS 107(51): term, deeper transformations, aim to meet22026-22031 more than climate change goals alone, and may or may not succeed in moderating harm or exploiting beneficial opportunities’.
  7. AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATION “Framing” shapes: • what is noticed • what /whose knowledge is ‘relevant’ • what research is conducted and how • what risks are privileged, measured, addressed • what options are considered ‘plausible’ • what outcomes are ‘desirable’ or ‘realistic’ • ie how a problem is defined and tackled
  8. AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATION ‘Inadequate consideration of underlying influences’ results in poor problem Cork, S. (2010) definition, which leads in turn to ‘Resilience of social-ecological ‘problems being defined in terms of systems’ In: Cork, S. (Ed) symptoms rather than causes’ and Resilience and Transformation: strategies and actions being formulated Preparing Australia for Uncertain Futures. which risk not only failing to solve the CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne problem but making it worse.
  9. AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATION ‘Inadequate consideration of underlying influences’ results in poor problem Cork, S. (2010) definition, which leads in turn to ‘Resilience of social-ecological ‘problems being defined in terms of systems’ In: Cork, S. (Ed) symptoms rather than causes’ and Resilience and Transformation: strategies and actions being formulated Preparing Australia for Uncertain Futures. which risk not only failing to solve the CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne problem but making it worse. ie. Maladaptation
  10. OVERVIEW Ambiguity about CC adaptation Importance of framing Three example issues 1. The relationship b/w anthropogenic CC & natural climate variability 2. How adaptation success is defined 3. The relevance of different forms of knowledge Conclusions
  11. ANTHROPOGENIC CC vs. NATURAL CV CC is seen as: a problem for the distant future, difficult to detect, complex to understand, clouded by uncertainty and controversy… Relative to immediate climate extremes and other pressing issues, it doesn’t rate
  12. ‘Scalar’ and ‘experiential’ perspectives of CCGlobal, long term climate All other pressures change Climate variability Climate variability All other Climate change pressures A - A scalar interpretation: B - An experiential interpretation:Climate change as envelope Climate change as signal 12
  13. ‘Scalar’ and ‘experiential’ perspectives of CC Global, long term climate All other pressures change Climate variability Climate variability All other Climate change pressures A - A scalar interpretation: B - An experiential interpretation: Climate change as envelope Climate change as signalFocus on future exposure Focus on current vulnerabilityto climate impacts to all risks 13
  14. ‘Scalar’ and ‘experiential’ perspectives of CC Global, long term climate All other pressures change Climate variability Climate variability All other Climate change pressures A - A scalar interpretation: B - An experiential interpretation: Climate change as envelope Climate change as signalRisk: overlooking constraints on Risk: overlooking need for majoradaptive capacity and ongoing role of CV and anticipatory change 14
  15. ANTHROPOGENIC CC vs. NATURAL CV How we respond to climate extremes and variability influences/represents our response to CC Positive influence: adaptive capacity Negative influence: negative resilience
  16. The vexed issue of disaster responseSource: US National Drought Mitigation Centre, http://www.drought.unl.edu/plan/cycle.htm
  17. Photo from Andrew Campbell
  18. OVERVIEW Ambiguity about CC adaptation Importance of framing Three example issues 1. The relationship b/w anthropogenic CC & natural CV 2. How adaptation success is defined 3. The relevance of different forms of knowledge Conclusions
  19. HOW IS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION DEFINED? If adaptation is about ‘persistence through change’… • What do we want to persist? • What do we want, or are we willing, to change? And what will weRickards, L. andHowden, M. (under be forced to change?review)‘Transformationaladaptation’Crop and Pasture Forced change = less optionsScience
  20. Source: Howden S.M., Soussana J.F., Tubiello F.N., Chhetri N., Dunlop M., Meinke H. (2007)Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of theUnited States of America 104:19691-19696
  21. HOW IS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION DEFINED? Irrespective of climate change, do we need to change? Current adaptation deficits are substantial
  22. Successful adaptation along a particular pathwayof development may at the same time decreaseresilience, and eventually lead to crisis. Adger et al 2009
  23. HOW IS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION DEFINED? Sustainable adaptation Equitable adaptation Revolutionary adaptation CC as a catalyst for addressing a host of existing issues and legitimating a step change in how we farm
  24. HOW IS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION DEFINED? Sounds good … but what is the cost of change and who is going to bear it? Adaptation is costly Transformational adaptation is especially costly and risky
  25. The coping cascade: erosion of capital Based on Pelling (2011), Nelson et al (2007) and BCG (2008) Absorb stress and Financial Expend savings extra work Human and social and physical and accrue debt Reduce short-term Erode/sell non-productive social expenditure: goods Eg. socializing Withdraw long-term Erode/sell productive social investments: goods Eg. education Break up social Enter into high- units: selective risk livelihoodsNatural migration (temporary, Permanent)Rely on “Destitutionbut Do not replenish Anddevalue or repair Actively substitute natural capital for Householdnatural natural capital Collapse”capital financial capital 26
  26. Adaptation: A Coping-Transformation ContinuumNegative Incremental Transformational No changechange change changeAccept negative Attempt to addresslong-term effects long-term effects TransformationalErosion of Maintenance of existing activities improvement ofexisting activities existing activities& structures & structures & structures Short-term survival Long-term adaptation Decline 27
  27. OVERVIEW Ambiguity about CC adaptation Importance of framing Three example issues 1. The relationship b/w anthropogenic CC & natural CV 2. How adaptation success is defined 3. The relevance of different forms of knowledge Conclusions
  28. FARMER EXPERIENCE vs. SCIENCE Double edged epistemological sword CC = radically new future = past experience no longer relevant? But uncertainty also inherent to scientific knowledge of future under climate change
  29. FARMER EXPERIENCE vs. SCIENCE Challenge to local farmer knowledge - Familiar territory… - Reinforcement of value of scientific learning for farmers - ‘Climate literacy’ - Suits current paradigms
  30. FARMER EXPERIENCE vs. SCIENCE But narrow interpretation of farmers’ understanding of past climate Main lesson = climate is variable The future is uncertain Perhaps some cognitive adaptation occurring in this emphasis
  31. We just live in a variable climate. No two years are everthe same. I havent seen two years the same ever since Istarted farmingIt’s just the history of this area that there’s extreme drysand there’s extreme wets and there’s not really thatmuch in the middleWe’ve had 100 years of extremes. There’s no such thingas average. It would be a nice thing if it was.From: Rickards, L. (forthcoming) ‘Critical Breaking Point? The effects of climatevariability, climate change and other pressures on farming families’. Report forBirchip Cropping Group
  32. FARMER EXPERIENCE vs. SCIENCE Need humility on both sides Work together Temper concept of expertise Adaptation is about social learning
  33. AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATION What is adaptation? Adaptation to what? By whom? Not In which way? straight Over what time scale? forward! To what desired end? To what actual end? At what cost?
  34. AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATION lauren.rickards@unimelb.edu.au

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