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一个证券分析师的醒悟
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一个证券分析师的醒悟

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About value investment in China market

About value investment in China market

Published in Education , Technology , Business
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  • 1. n_ - CHIN Cni'JC 'PRESS
  • 2. . =M.fEMiJI!I (CIP, ltil - 1'VElf7tfiJJifiA911119: ~.ft~it$mtm-it5t~«::mw . -:ft~ = tfl:mmJtft.*- 1 · , 201.0. s ISBN 978 --7-5086-2246 ·-0 1.. - ··.. n. ~ .~ m. iiE~·tiYt-3limu IV. F830. 91 - 49 rfli~[.Qi*fll.:fStfr C:IP lttl-¥ (2010) jfJ 1.42322% YIG·E ZHEN'GQ.UA.N FENXISHI DE XINGWU. ' e -:~ittff MlfJttr: t:frl(~ ttlllfi;Jt (China cmc Press) aw-rM~ d:il&tfJL~ ttula:tr:·lf'mllilfi-mJRst1iIIR*iiJ( ,It ~;( •u•u~liK••*•• 4 ~-••·*.Ill zli at~• uxJ029 ) ( ~lTI·C P'uhlishing Group)1 ~ ;p tt: ~~~~tt;tHiittmJJr· *: s·80mm1>< 1230mm I/32 )!:: 2010 4f 91 ,Jj jfJ 1 mi '~ -·=7. 25 * It:: 180 f~ ,SJJ ~: 20to£F 11 JJ!B 3~Sf.JIJ Cl I·s::-BN.. 9·71-; 7 5-:-no£ 2246- o·/F ,..046.- . : , ·_. ·rr.-. :- ,_ Piiiiilli iiiiii 1~.-1 > _ ·_ - 1 _· . ·• ~ -- . 22 f1t: 30.00 Jt 111:-kl!~.* • ( I· lnJLD .-'laTAI71; ~ .~ ffA.Z~~ JLJIJ*-it!J 4' ,, ~t'4itJf t;J Ji, Jl Ji t dJ~.ft~,§J Ji t':ft.flo 814;-~~ : 010-84849283 http://www. publiSh. citic. com ll41-ft ~: 010-84849000 E-mail :sales@ cilicpub. com .author@ citicpub. ·com
  • 3. ~~~--~tih*o±m.~~··~· ~00~*~-~~ ~~-~7-m~~-~k$0~~~~*~0~~··~•*•~ ffi~~~~~~~~''o~ft·*· ~~~00, ~--~~~~ ··~~*~" ~g~~~A~~~~*WA±~. *~~~~fi*, ~j;:_B"J~ 00~~ 2000 ~~){*~~*~ ~ ~)t~5R~§:~, {B* ~~li~~-~~~•mu~~-~~~ft0-m~~*~·~~oo A~. xit~ (3t$), «il&iffiit:tiHr> ~~ «~~> ~. m:t~ ~-~*~~-~§oftin~oo~~F~m~~~-007.~£00 Af$:~~5~-iiJ~o M~'L'*i.5t, ftifJ~i~fx~!J,+71HiliOOA7f~'J7 ~;t$-~ ":tl~ ti~li~" ~~Mfto~~ftin~~li~*~~U7.fii4~A ~~*$~m~*7oA~~~~·**~~.~~~~~xm ~oft~~w~~~!~a~~~-~~~m~~m•~~ft~~~ f~~•-~m;~•~~o~~~-;f$0
  • 4. ~Aill-"M-~~M~" ~~ft,~~~~~A-~#~~ il~:l!ft-~, JHJ:m~1t~, ;~)[S:·it~, iiff~ft~······-s, ~ ~~~~o~AIDft-~--ttfi-~~ffi~,~m--~n4~ ~~ft~~o~~~~~-T'~~~-~~--L,flW~~~­ ~o~m*,mmW;~~~,~~mfio ~m~~~~~~~,--Mo~~®A*~~'~R~~ 1$, (£.8~15~£-~~~J~ 1 ;~.)[;li~at.l 1 ~~ii~~:f~~ 1 ~IR -~~~~~~.-~A«~~~~-~*M~$~*~-~~­ ~···--·~-~'0 ~Rm*,M--~~M~" ~M~--~~~~~o~~~~ ~~~**±~.~m--.~ill~-~~WM~7~~~?R~m ~Jl:it~*i!§;J<~5i!l{o ft1tm.~7Rffl~~~'*A~ittfi~in~, ~~*~~~Toli*--~,-~Rill~$~-~X~~~o -~-~f­ .ft~-4t~ I
  • 5. ~*!J~~~~...t~ftif-.l~~~ic.;m-~,~.*0 mw-~~~JE: ~ if-.! ' )§-w-~ ~ 2004 ~ ~~ *tE «~ ~> J.i!< $;fa [XX] ilCi _t ~*if-.!)( [t$ft~ ctt~f~~if-j~~!l:t:o &t:i:~!JfoJ. m~~~~IJ. {Bft~~F~ ~-~if-J.~~-·~~-±~.~~~~7~ffi~o~A8x• ~l&*!iffi ;f®'I 1Bft:Jt59:~iit001~ 'i?:1n1JIJ ~~ irallf]. :f.H.!!.lit~tB s ;fOX~~~oH$$A@~~HM·.~~-~~M.~~~? ~-~~-~~*~•.lit~••m•l ~~-flM~.ffi~ -fl~*o•7-~-*~*±~~. 8if-J~~-;f[lt&~{·)(~ temperament ) o .R~ ~ ,~, *", ~ flE'!'I'It®iffio tE ~- ~~ _t , 'i?: ~ o/'1 ~.rr•~~--~•~m~•f~±~o fttss.ftif-Jffittm~oft$~M*ili~ . .fr:~~~~*~;f0 ~*~~~~*~-~~79~if-.l~*~~Q-ft,lit.fr:·*~~ if-Jtl±~tL*~i1H~ 7- ~if-J~~~iJft I1991 - 1994 ~ l, @ft~ ~~q~Xif6o J.A 1994 ~~~*· ft.fr:~R!if-.IA*~~~19:.tlHrf~7 +A~if-.l*x~lfl1-H:5HJT ~, 1t.§.)!~ 5~ (2001 -2005 ~ l ~
  • 6. X (~~~--)~~W~"--~~~fi~" (---~.~#-,ft Jt5fJi) o ffiftJttli:JJfiiif~·tit!-•~~~wilJj, ~ c~tilif*Jt mfa-lQ:.(~TiiHJf., ft~5C,~~-.) o j:JtJ 2006 ~MiE~~tfi 9.ifiiS9i!Lil~~){5, a~JJirfl~jT-~7 -~~-~, :i!~~RJI~lli­ *'J':fli#tl!~ 2-tAJI18fo. Ri£ 2006 ~~i:t-* 20 n*tR~i#itftf£ fi-tflfiJJ+JL~(Jt].Jjjf£, -f§JJ§·*)i-WJio Jl(fJJ!.j¥~;t~o ~~~~.R~-~7-m~--0~~,~-a~MmJ~ a(~~~·-~),fi~~a~-~e-~~-~~*M~--. m~--~*~~*~~-~o!~~~~~-~-*~~Affi,­ mtwR(f] "t1'L',~" o ~o~JHt~~*~' Jl~A:DJ~Xr£4!1'~ *!'Jilif M,m&~~~~~~~~~-o~**~&~~am~*'~o~ ~~£~$~~--~?~~--~~+~~~~OO~M.~#~ fiJ(JEB.ijSo Jl(f, 4V~*)Rlft, ft~:pj:-~){mf!~~~'L'~(jJKl:Jli; miiJP'f:~~~Jl, 1fl~M~'L'~itk~~~f$H!~~71t~*ti ( ~t ~Jl, jtjj{Xtfi71t~ffi~rl)o l&*¥il~W ·*~~~f8Jilf*J:t!, ~ l I II I l II
  • 7. ~ 1¥ t9:ilUU!li.R , J!: XI tN.'ii'i;f!J®lffi I H~ ' 1~11*1f5%1410 ft~ f~)XfillSfMttt-J1L'~xtfttt-J ~1*:ff~H~0 .:X.tt~O, ftm!f-~){M"g{1~ii~~ · x~~~Yi (John Templeton, x~ •oa~tt-J~~Al tt-J-~~~: "*M~M~~~~-.-~ft Y!rta {B£, :!IO*i~~~ii:Ar!Jtf-JiiHilliffl, 59:i'lJL!" (It is time in the market, not timing the market, that counts. l iXi;iSi£&*mM $,1B·~*~3~aM~*M*W.~$-~~*tfJ, ~~~1* ~*~~*~0~tfJ~~~~~*"gtJX~M$n~£JX#~·~ ~$~~.~~€~.~~*€~~~*0~--htt-J~~*fi~ 1f11~J.HEX't4ij1-~~~:ff 12 1'f] tfJ § *Fffi-:m (target price) , X1* &(mal ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~•o*A•iX#•*~ 10~~~. ~M"m~~~~iiiX#•tt-JmM±~.mili~~ftH~~ &iX#·tt-J~Wtlo~O·~-~-T-tfJ,T-1'-*m,B~~~~ €~tt-J~ffi",~ffi",mffi"~~-.~ftW*8£m~~fitt-J•Mo iX~~ili~fttt-JQm~•~. ~~~£ftxtii*tA~fttt-J~•~
  • 8. XD J:P·JirAJi@!JJim, -I1f1'il: M2000 ~!'J 2oos ~, ~x.m~)jf ~~-.-ffi~~-~~--~~~W%~~~-~**'~~~ ~~~M~**~~aa(~M£-~-(A~BM)~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~-~~~~$·~*~~M~--£,~~),~ ~-m-~~~~.--~75~oR~M~~~*T~~~~~ fi~--,@~~~-~-~o~~~·,~~~~~~~~~~­ ~---A~-~~~-~~~*~~*~~-$~~~M~~~ --,@~~M~,~~~M~~~~F---~~~o r±~IE, M20 i!t~ 60 ~ft!a-Mf•J so ~f:~JJMff.J 15 $(BJ, ia fjj(Wftt;lct£JHii1i-JJ*$illl!tz~, 1'~7 so%1i:tio -~P1tf£i£fi ~~-~$~-z~.m-~m-~~~5~~~~7-~ft~o m-1:~. ~~t 20 "tl!!c 30 1f.fttA~~*-iiJ!;kJJl.o OJ:!:*ti!tf.J ~~~~~~~~~*~-.~g~~k~~-(~-~~~~~ • ~~Wttlo~~~~~~M,~~~M~~&$~~~--*~ ~-~0 I. I I I •
  • 9. ~ ~ l3l:lUH!liR, .II! XI th,$ :fll®iffi ·~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~oftffiM~~~~~~ =~~.~~~~~~o~-*~~*~~~~~~~M$*M* ~.~~~~*.~W~~~~~~oiB~.~~~~~~-*~ )C~~~~~o ~.<$:Jj,i=h#~~~B~~*~~~;f[J~x.J.!~~~o ft iJ-71 t~*~t1~t'li!Jto~;f§59:~**~ rz~L ¥.1 -:tnm. xt-Tt::'t *IDJiJTfij:~.ftf$~~~~'lto~I5 (~)[, ~fiL Xi!$, ~~), ft~~-:k-~o@~, ft~~~~~Mo a~•±mhi~.~~~~~w.~~in~Mma~~~= m•~~~~*~~@o~*~~~~*··-~~~-wu. ~~ ~1rJ~~.~~xt~2~mMo~$~-~~$-~fto
  • 10. 151 Contents 1!!1 " ttwa•iA. ~&,biUDtltl 0 •- i!iD~U@tlfJ:Ia /ll!:~~~~~;l!;~ I 3 J'9:1i'f~ C~:!l~·£7C ~ I 8 ~fcJ~t~so -7o Rill!:~ 113 ~i'i!r-·!l.f"~H I 16 1i"$t£1'"5ti I 20 BJ5t~~~~~$1'~ I 23 ft~i!f*~:i:ftlli!:IP I 26 ~~~~'§';; /32 e M=a GillftJiiiJJI. ..JI!ib'fi? ~/ll!:~:*.liffi~? I 41 ~Ill!:~~tH1HFHIi;1i'f:!E.'& I 44 Ill!:~ 1'~;J11.- f,li] I 46 ~.'&&: ~~·*•*·~~~ttl~ ffl ~J.'&:1'9:1i'f~ IU6~/ll!:~ I 56 ftxtJl:trr.'&~:fi-5! I 60 $~te'J10Cfo.l~ ~:it? I 66 ~JJ.t~$ ~ftitl!fim: I 76 ~ff:§:11i~~~~~fi'if" I 79 ~n:llH1F~Ill!:~~ft.:~ 7 -*······ I 88 ffli~ft-~Jll' ft~fcJ~MIP~? I 91 G •= "
  • 11. m:l:t!!Ftft*~oyflgjdlf I 103 ~:l:t!!ffl'1f:::pj:~~miM 1 101 ~ :1:1!!F0 EJP1;!;] " tf)'{1l:ll€l!!Jj:" I 112 ~Q for-5HJr:l:t!!F0 EJ ft-.1llii~ 1 115 •~m• ifi~A.BC.J~~· :11:.'!It.ft-.1 itlJ.'!It.~Jt~tJlrrfJ ~:i:J' I 119 'P00:11:~=fil& "~ffi" I 123 9o OO:lt.'!It.~~~ I 127 9o 00:11:.'!It.P1:21>:tldiH~ I 131 .:t~.'!It.*=f£ "*~till~" I 134 9J 00:1t.'!It.ft-.1 ~ ~~:j$ I 138 .=:f$:11:~ fjlfJ; I 140 ~l&Atf.J ~J't~ I 143 :1t~JiY.i.~1J~fi ft-.1 ~H1J I 147 Mna ••" I!BC.JII J!l!:r!Jft-JIJiif 9.:21>:00 I 153 Jlii:~r!J±roft-.i*t?HJll.~ I 156 til£ "IIIli" ~ft-.1~ I 159 iiE~JHJT9ifitfJ.Fclll& I 163 " iiE~?HJT 9ifift-.1 l1!l$ il!l : tli~ , ~1L ~ffl, ~flj.lE I 168 :fiJzH<..'!It., {!,lJJIJ~-'&.'!It.Jlii: I 171 "Ii~J!l!:~" il€l!!!f I 174 tf.r!J~it~:fl*? I 177 :i::J:Itllii:r!Jft-.1:kblHt I 180 0 M*Jl lllifiBC.Jft:~ll -~iell 9o OOJlii:~;J;Jit~~jjiJ$? I 187 9o 00.A.ft-.1~8 #.;: 9-1-~ I 190 ~oot~i~H&h>~t:tfls"' 1 194 w~l!l!:r!l<Ptfl~i.;:ur~~ 1 197 Jlii:$ ft-.1~iJIIEY. ~ i.C:&lt I 201 -Jfjlfi=f~Q~Jl I 205 :fiR;JtJ!l!:r!Jft-J!i:fi:tJ~ I 208
  • 12. ft~:iJI~j ~§l;t~ 500 1~~~~ (Vanguard 500 Index Fund) ~'fl:lJ~~J,jkJ~ ·ism {John Bogle) ~~$:~. -$:~ffu2007 if'§] ~<*•~•=n~H=m~m~~m•~$> (~~k&~~ Common Sense Investing) , n-.$:~ ffu 2008 ij:. '§) ~ ( ~ 7) ( £- oo~)o~~.$:~~~~~~+~-~.ftre~~~~~. ~w~ ft~c. m~~::t~¥o ;t~H~~~ao1sm~.~m•~•~~~~?@~tttta a.~~-~.R~~7•ft~tt.n~7m§~o~~~~-~m ~.H~~~*R~·~**~~*~Bo~~~~tD•H~~· ~·li~~~~fflo~~~ffl§~~~~$:,~~~~~m~oM ~*M*~· **~~11i~1D.1fifj]Ji!l'f1IIiSI~z]g, 7C~I=m~£ 4%-6%, liS!Jit, **-=f-JJ:f~Jj~~ffl~tt:l:o ~~~-~~~~ Jli~ ~~-~D~.~MM.*mo~~-~-~Lx~-~~2-­ :1-~tfito ~~~~oo~i!=-~Hmm~~. :f~fi=tm~~ffili~~~
  • 13. m.~~~~ID~~*~~-o~ft~~?~~~too*~~~~ ~~-*~~~?-~~M4.:k~-~~~*~W~-~~~~ ~li:Jio 1:B~:f~A~91!1'liJi, @i!t-T~-la~*~L'o -ftk1niA ~.§~~~~~-~-~.~~~-:km.~~c~~~~­ ill, llJHt~tJ~'L'II-.fl, ~Jtt, ~,~fmll&:kmo fticftJL$il ;ltt~f£*51t1=~-1'~*fM*~f01~i}ljfl, ~~~1fil: 19% ~ A-~~caT~~~A--~l%~~~0 ~m~~~~~~.•~~ u~~~.~-~~m~~~ I ~~~~ill-M~QM~~~·--~~~oM~*M*t,M­ ~~fi~~~A~-~m~,&M$--~*~~-~-0 ~ADJM-MalJt: "iti!t~.=:li1F€Atiit!J§liiA~f.Rao" DJ~ m~-Bam,~a~Ma*$7~?~~-..mMfi ~-mto ~~fi.-~Maa*$~?-fi-4,M~~~H~~~ft** *~.=1i~o ~if*_t~ "~fii§J.!EI" (Reversio~ to the Mean) it 1ij{~~f4-o .. . lliJL+iF*, ii*-~at.IWAJ!It~~·8·7 ~c~lltJTJIM~* ~*-W~~--.~~~~a*fi~-*-~H.~~-*~~. . m~~~~M~~-~-*-*o·€~m~~~~-~~~~~• tt,A~~~--o-*fi*~~-~--. ~~&R~~-* $o~~-~--~~ill*~~~:k$,~ffi~~--~2~?~ ~~~-~~-m, ~&~**~~~~-m.~~rr~~~mR ~M-:kmof£~~~~**·--,~~1§]~$~~~~+~~. -~t%d~2%~-m*M-~-~~A~-*om~~~~- I
  • 14. m-m- 5 .IHH0Ofll~~(l(J ~~ ¥~in£~~£M. •m~£~Utl~.~~£•~~~? ffiMm.&~h~~M~A~~*~~--~.fiftR.~* •~.m~~-~~~~~in~~-li~~-.~~~•~m~• ~iio isM~ 2i'F7*:&:ifal~, ~51 ffl7 *:ilfXJJHJl.t1il;f!JA±~fiJf ~0 tt:tm, ~51 ffl7 ~ ~ *$!~~~~ !m'19:?81 'g it~ · wrx~ (David Swensen} ~fiJf~: .:(£~~!]~!.~)(~~~~, .R1f~4% ~-~ .:tEM*w~~~-m~;fll·ffl~€ftWMa**·~~~~~* ~.R£tt**~@l:tii$~7 o. 6% ~e; ~ 96% ~-~J~eHitr**· ~~•~•m•=~~•~m•4.8%o*••~•~~~~;fll~ •~£~~. ~££m~•~~-~~mM.isM~£moa~• •~-~m~.~··~A~~•••.m~~~-·~~&~• (If] A iiJ ~:J.*•••<c ~fi20~.:(£·~~1f-~m~H~h~-£~?8l~~h~. t9:'6!m.wrDJ 1nma~ ifJm~19:?8l ~W~~#&:i:. iOJwt~':A. 1DJ 131~ tl:l . ~ 1fft$o~-.~ll~A~£~~*~~~.¥~~~A;fll~tl:~~ £~1f·ffl~oA1f~M·~~£ . .:tEM*W~~. ~-~~ff] :ft#~-~~ @ltli$F~M·¥~ in lll 1L'PfT~fiJTm ~~~~ @l t!i$o M*W~~.~~~~~-~~ . .R1f···~ (~~M~ son} ~*~5t~ (Bill Miller} ~-~)i~ 15 ~J~HIJtf;f.Jttirf~ 500 m~.mm•~•~~~*.€*~~~~*7.~:i:~~-~~ 7.~~~*~*Ma7o~fi~~~~F~M•**o*~5t~ ft~~m•**~~~~tl:l~~.~-~~*~•m~m•**•
  • 15. ~~t'fJ*~fe~"I!IJlo E¥4ttfi*9ijj*~HJJ •*'•JB- (Benjamin Graham) :liJlftiiE ~;.tfifi.ika'itfLIJa.llo -ft!!IJrt1f (1976 ~) ~7fjftX'tli[5f;:;tfi ~~m~~-*~~-0~~~-m~: ·a~~-~**W~~ llo40~SiJ ('PP20titge30~ft), !IJ~R:il:i:JHtlt, ~Itt, iii* ~f.fiJ:Ain:k~;li'Jo DJ~~, $RJHtll8ft:k-11fitJ(]A&I:iJf ~i'J:, =f'¥J{t~JfAt.JIJj]*Sf~o 0 "*' iJl~ffk~;A:~tli£, 1'~flk~~~~~iiE~?tffrrlt ( ~~Atfi-fill!) 1iiDJi,11to 18*& srm~1'tk$:f~ilti- &m~~llti, ifii:1:~&~~,~1!11 *mo fatail, -~fn~Vlit!J-~~trna:t:, ~fnlfJ:I:-l§Jlf'o i!t *~~*~~~~ft***~~*~~~~~o~-~~R--~ ~~-o~~~-~~-*~-~~~~~~~~,@-~~A~ -I~:1!:fiJ:1f}ll£~0 '*ffl:k~li~tfJI1}W.J~'St~~-~3t • *51! (Jack Meyer) ~ lk~Pl!.i!JfAo fll!i£ 2004 ~~~~~ (if(jk_.I.Jflj) ie,=lfi.Jt: "Jl1'~ -fi~~~-~*•~o*~ftA~~~m~tt~a*~~-*~ Jf*;kJflkifJJIM, imRiA'-185% -90% (f]~~~JI~Il-:km~o 10rt¥ltmz~, flkfrJ;I:jl-a~!i!til~o" 1~~~-~*A~-~~~m~~~.*~W~,tt~*~~ *M~*~~~-**-~~fioK____+_e_A~M A &M aom~~*7:k-~ft--~.M~*M*W,m--* mmm~,lia~-~-~~~~~~~$.mM~*~Dw~m
  • 16. m-• 7 llll:~MiHI'.if-1!If-~ m~~~-~~~;~a~o1a~~~*~~&•w~•~**~~ f:..&LfJo 1000 7Ct9:~~Q*4ij~@lt& 6% 1 10 ~z,fg"(f~ 1791 7C 1 20 ~z,Jg1f~ 3 201 JCo f!Eif~~niJ5.2ifcJM$Ef-J*illi~±tHt•~Ef-J* 'iffi~!H~~o ~~-.~1o~*m••~*~~~~~~o~&~a~. ~ g*~~*~0~.I•~~~&t:.~Et-J·~~*~re-s~~• •~m••~o1a~•~*•~~~~•m~•~Et-Jmfta~. ~ g~~~~*ff~•~Et-Jm••~. ~~~-~•~*~~nEt-J~ •. fifi~~~~--Ef-j~-.-~Ef-J~A~~~7~~o~Z, ll9: ft:fDaft1niJdl];~~ tt1~ § c. ~t ~~J.AJ!lMEJ ~ 1a~~ 1975 ~-e~~ 7tttW_t~-~t~••~ 7taa~. ~~~~A~·~-00~S~Q~~IOOQ.Z.~cf!EEt-J~~~~7a -~~.~~~n~m~--of!EA+~M~E~~~~.~~75 ~·filf+~~~oftm~mfiE~~Ef-jfi.of!EEf-J~*~~~~~ tt-.~~A~ft~~ffiEf-J*.~~ft~~t~~1f1~~ft~~~~ *$.Mo fiE~.A~IXXliJili. x~i~~t~~si~_tnt:efiEEf-J~*· IXXlm ~~re~m~~fiEEt-JIXXliJili,!~~~t~•Et-Jfi•oia~~~*Et-J~fi~ •~Et-JM~.~-~~oo~~•w~•~. !~~·fj~.~-~~ ~**~~0
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  • 99. .. i.l .1'iiE~?ttr9ili :;~~~r·:"': 9CJ II 11 92 ~#~~~~~~~~~-F~m-~~~~.#~~~~­ z-n~~~~Jifi1 (EV/EBIT) !*~){1}EJ~~~"*ii~F (riP, ift~ml ~~~~~~~~~F~$~)o~~~mft~~,ffi~~~~~. ~~~~~~~~~~~fi~~*~~fi~~"'~~~~~~~~ fll&*fll:~~fcl~f§JlE:lifF1JTISHl1«~*'J5tfJ~~nr']o 1I~Iftli!F~ ~~~~E~W~~~#~M~-*~#~,-~~W~-~~~ ( ~p f1li1t, goodwill) Jl~7 o :!tJ1t~¥Jfl "~~$" (EV/EBIT) ffij~ffli! ~ ~m~$ (PE)? itslm••*JJ!~~~i£~~~-1'91J-T*•-o *•:U -~-n~~~~*~ ~~~~A~~-~~-~~d~m« ~~~~~. ~~~~~~M,ffiZ~~~so~~~~-(~~ *10%) 0 ~~lij z~~ !&A 100 100 M&l&~ltl~zf!JB9)gif"Jffij 10 10 ~t~Jl.m 0 5 mmr~tJm 10 5 &1& (40%) 4 2 lftf'Jili1 6 3 ~*4*i1: Joel Greenblatt, The little Book That Beats The Market t John Wiley & Sons. l I
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  • 101. ~~k,~ftA~~~~~~o~~~~~~~~~~~:~~~ ~~~~~.~-~-~~7--I~~m~o~*~~~P~~ 1b,~il}ie~JJil'i&ff)l:(fjA'L'!FJI i1=~~E~,I]8o sl~fi!fftfl)g~fit 7.m~~-~-~~m~.~-*M~~~--,~~~-~­ ~~"~o~~~-~aA,-fiR~~ ~~o 1988 27. 1 24.8 16.6 1989 44.6 18 31.7 1990 «1. 7 -16. 1 -3. 1 1991 70.6 45.6 30..5 1992 32.4 11.4 7.6 1993 17.2 15.9 10. 1 1994 22 -4.5 1.3 1995 34 29. 1 37. 6 1996 17.3 14.9 23 1997 40.2 16.8 33.4 1998 25.5 -2 28.6 1999 53 36. 1 21 2000 7.9 -16.8 -9. 1 2001 69.6 11.5 -11.9 2002 -4 -24.2 -22. 1 2003 79.9 68.8 28.7 2004 19.3 17.8 10.9 ~~rnltfl$ 30.8% 12.3% 12.4% M*ll: Joel Greenblatt, 'I7u! Uule Book That Beau The Market, John Wiley & Sons. f r r I ) 1: I I ~ r I I I
  • 102. m-=m- 11HO fX £it 95 m. R~w~~m~? )i~, _L~$ ft-Jr!J:ttiSf±S.r:~<HJi!1·t;&ft-J~J1~ 3 500 ~ 0 ~ ft-JM.Sf ±$]~, ifiJ S&P500 :;&!Ji!(l';J~ 500 **0'6Jn:Jffir!Jf1[1JQ;j<J(SJL±$Jif~i¥Jo f'F~mrffuft-J:fii!*I!it11=7 3H~-1'j~mo ffut~ 2 5oo *ii*ft-J 0'6J~n··~~•· ~~M~mP§**~fi~~~. •§*~1o 1'~ (tij~~ 250 *0'iiJ) 0 1£~~ 17 1f:~, 'l?;1f](l';J:~Hjj/jQl'o ~-~-~~~.•-~~oe~-1'~••~•001&-~~ ~ft-J~~o-~.ffu1fJtttt*M*ft-JftM*~h•ia.&•~•­ .K~~~*14~f!Hfnft-J "I!it" 0 ~Q* 171f:ft-Jft-*1'14~f!Hfn?Jr~ft-J ~*· Jl~~~ 161f:ft-Jft-*. sX;~ 151f:ft-Jft-*, 141f:ft-Jft-*. ~U4 ":f21RHft-*" (data mining ) u i'F~ ~ **=$~1~ fE f*ffu ft-J 1f$OJ ~j 1£ ~ffu1f:ffi~fiffi~•m.ifilft~~~~o ~ 1 _gil 17, 9% ~Hil 15.6% ~ 3 ~il 14.8% ~4 gil 14.2% ~HJ:l 14. 1% ~ 6 gil 12.7% ~Hil 11. 3% ~ 8 gil 10. 1% ~9 gil 5. 2% ~ 10 gil 2. 5% ~fit* lffi: Joel Greenblatt, The Little Book That Beats The Market, John Wiley & Sons. I '' '
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  • 210. ( I ) John Bogle, The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, Wiley, 2007. (2) John Bogle, Enough, Wiley, 2008. (3) Jeremy Sigel, Stocks for the Long Run, McCraw - Hill, 2007. ( 4) Burton C. Malkiel, and Charles D. Ellis, The Elements of Investing, Wiif'V. 2009. (5 ) Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor, Collins, 2003. (6) Jason Zweig, Your Money- & Your Brian, Simon & Sehuster, 2008. (7) Christopher H. Browne , The Little Book of Value Investing, Wiley , 2006. (8) Burton C. Malkiel, Random Walk Down Wall Street, W. W. Norton, 2007. (9) Charles D. Ellis, Winning the Loser's Game, McCraw -Hill, 2009. ( 10) Prem C. Jain, Buffett Bey-ond Value, Wiley, 2010. ( II ) Patt Dorsey, The Little Book That Builds Wealth, John Wiley & Sons, 2008.
  • 211. "The views and opinions expressed in this material are those of the author and are not those of UBS AG, its suhsidiaries or affiliate compa- nies ( "UBS" ) . No relationship, association, sponsorship or endorse- ment is suggested or impliecl hetween UBS and the author through the publication or distribution of this material. Accordingly, UBS does not accept any liahihty over the contents herein or any claims, losses or dam- ages arising from the use or reliance of all or anv part of this material. " *~~~~n~~~A~~~~ft···o··~~tB•ffo ~~~~~*~W .•~7~J0HWM. ~~*·~~~~ JRIJ. ~DJflEi~m. fs~;c~xf!R;@;o 1~•~ JX1.13&, iw~1!f~F: m-tJ 1~'o f-jo~:gX;~ftR~Jl±_~~=1'fjgtl~i:ffCJm:)(~:gX;~~£)j'f~·f:fo
  • 212. 1iJJJIM*!IJ "fi~--, ~ +t::lt&ffmtitl Dancewithyourmoney 1,000,000 !2;"'+ ~'4 -~ j~.~ W_jly_h_ .. lfF-bi " (iq+:lltSwlfft1 lii~T CJ.llt~l>4>• t- .,.. dJJ?IIJiUIIIi-*hl · lil!llli>UJ>ot" '~"'-•· •w~r~Jh:AII!t . -- .-.. .._ .- .. - ... . ~14 ~~tJ.hi.. Jli.ll3~ ' tlf~ I ~~it. *JR~II.Vl'!lG. . - - ~ 'QI if .... • • eJil!lltitliJ--"ffft!---" taCJ +itlt1liRJiit • 45~: ISBN 978-7-5086-2018-3 ••--•-c t cue ... ~1ft: 28.00 jG -**~~00"~~--''W~~~o ~m*Af~**~~+~**~~~~~~w~~-,~~ f*~11§; *~#~~~f--*~~--+-*M~, ~­ ~-a~~-~"*~--,,~~~~-~~-~~~, ~m~~ ~~*~~~~~e~~t,#li~~~, ~~M~~~*~*? ~h-~, ~~~h*~-00*~~! I~T~~~~~,*~~~~~~~~R·~~-~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~x¥~~~~,~~*~~~*~~~~ J~~,~~~~&~*~~~MA~~*~~-&,~M~~A~, ~M--~M~,~M*MI*~-~-~-~W~''*~--'' tJ!1#1~~tt9~~0
  • 213. aJi~Ytif-ll.l -+111tltatJ~rJIItiltt Spend vvith your Children - - --· .. .,._ ........ • # .1..>M!Jlf ~ lt!ltao-«il!i>tl& <'UotlfI¥Jt:._. ltM1i'P • -~ ·jji~··"ft!l~ll .. ~7-· f ..~··Ji1'11lt~· ' -~>0~" l't!IJI.II, )t"l!ll{l·!ltlt~ ltlJ1t'li":lftti··tr 't'll"!l'll···ot~·· ·~",..'~·~·lit an~mw• ~~~1t~aCJ *-1-JIIti.t'l: f1:~:JJi* .:fS-i}: ISBN 978-7-5086-2108-1 ~-fit: 28.00 jG -*11 ~ 0-12 ~ JL:tJt1ft~* 7-l!Jilt.:fS a 4JL~*-~~'~*~~~~~N,~-~~ili~~-~- --tWr~--~~t~,~-~~-~*~~~---,~~~ ~~~ffJ~**~~-~-~-*~~*~~~~~-?~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~,~~~~~*nr~~~~~~~? ~M~~*~-7-~N-,~-~~**-!~t~~~*tl~ ~..~~ n~.n? *~ #~ ~ J:~~ ~ 1=f 00 )t -!tl:*l~'' -~~ ~ fi] J(' {f.t¥~ ~~~--7-,*·-7-N-~~Mih~~~~-~~-~,~ ~~-~~-~,-~~M±,~M~IA1:f, ---#o W~l -~~~~-~-~£~,~~*~-~~W-o r I I I . I ..
  • 214. $lllticltliJ -iJ:kA$11-~tattailt . ..... - .. ..... ~- - .. -........~ - Build Wealth, Build Happi,ness__________...... - __..............._...-...,......... ... ·-·· ·-·--····............-.... .~~ . ·. ~n?.. ~~-· ~~ ~-.. ill ~ - it ~ A ~11-te9Jtlit:t ...... ' " - · · j •• - , . , . - · ••• - ..~ ·~ - +..--~~"' ttltfi&Ot'JIWtUia;JIJ.~~~·· i!Ji ll-:11:"!-•~ -.. ~ . ~~ .. .1M :r ~..uwr ·!f.•# +•v. llli~~ --*.2i'~PJf~:t~Jt~liM~ ff:~:~:ibtt ~-iJ: ISBN 978-7-5086--217.5-3 Ji!fft: 28.00 Jt **~~-, S-~~#-~*~?*~~~M~M$~~~ ~**~*~?~«~*-,~-~-~'~*~~A~~x~~ -f~#~~I? ~-~-~-~ ''*~-*'', ~~~~~-~~~R-~~0 *~~M-~*-#~~-~~~?~M~~A~~~a?~M~ ~«~*-,~~,-~+~~~-'***-A~? ~-~-*-~ "*-M*'', ~~~~M~~~~~**~o *~~~~-~~"~~~~-**''~"~*''~*~-~ -~,*-~*~~"*-~*''~~~~-' ~~-~~-~- **-~~~~~~~~~*~A±,~M~~o~*~o/,~~ - R~A~~~~mili~, ~~~~OO~®~A~~~,~#~L~ 1f1 M!!tl ~ ~ ~ J'PJ !( 0 ~w~E,~~~~*~~~§m~A~~~~!
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