Presentation from Dr. Michael Bitzer at NCFEF NC NEXT Conference, Oct 20th in Raleigh

1. 1
Generational Politics
Dr. Michael Bitzer
Professor of Politics & History and Provost
www.ThePartyLine.org

2. 2
Overview
• Overview of Generations & Politics
• Distinctiveness of Millennials
– Variety of Dimensions
• Millennial Voters in North Carolina
– Coming of Age, but Not Quite There—Yet

3. 3
Pew: Births Underlying
Each Generation

4. 4
U.S. Labor Force by
Generation, 1995-2015

5. 5
Party Identification, 1939-
2015 (Gallup)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
39
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Dem % Rep % Indep %
New Deal Democratic
Coalition
Realignment &
Dealignment
Coalition Country

6. 6
Overview
• Overview of Generations & Politics
• Distinctiveness of Millennials
– Variety of Dimensions

7. 7
National Party Affiliation
by Generation (Pew)
32 33 34 32 28
39
29
35 40 48
23
33
25 22 18
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nation Silent Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials
Democrat Independent Republican

8. 8
National Party Affiliation
With Leaners by Generation
(Pew)
48 47 47 49 51
13
10 12
13
14
39 43 41 38 35
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nation Silent Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials
Democrat Independent Republican

9. 9
National Ideological
Affiliation by Generation
(Pew)
34
28 33 34
41
39
33
35
42
44
27
38
34
25
15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nation Silent Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials
Consistently/Mostly Liberal Mixed Mostly/Consistently Conservative

10. 10
Aug 2015 NBC/WSJ Poll:
Generations’ Approval
of Obama
51
40 41
44
31
45
49 48
18
15
10
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Millennials Generation X Baby Boomers Silent
Positive Negative No opinion/DK

11. 11
August 2015 NBC/WSJ Poll:
Generations’ Perception of
Government’s Role
60
46
37
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Millennials All other generations
Do more to solve problems Doing too much

12. 12
Source for Political News by
Baby Boomers & Millennials
(Pew)
60
37
39
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Baby Boomers Millennials
Local TV Facebook

13. 13
“Interest in Politics” by
Generation (Pew)
45
34
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials

14. 14
Overview
• Overview of Generations & Politics
• Distinctiveness of Millennials
– Variety of Dimensions
• Millennial Voters in North Carolina
– Coming of Age, but Not Quite There—Yet

15. 15
Estimated NC Registered
Voters by Generation
2%
4%
8%
10%
16%
18%
24%
26% 27%
22%
23%
25% 25%
26% 26% 25%
25% 27%
45%
43%
41%
40%
36%
35%
33%
32%
33%
31%
29%
26%
25%
22%
21%
18%
17%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Oct-15
Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer Silent

16. 16
Year by Year Registration of
NC Voters by Generation
(based on 10-3-15 Data)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials

17. 17
NC Voters by Generation
and Race (10-3-15)
71%
82%
75%
68%
62%
22%
15%
21%
24%
27%
7% 3% 5% 8% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Statewide Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials
White Black All others/Unknown

18. 18
Location of NC Registered
Voters by Generation (10-3-
15)
46%
50%
56%
60%
22% 21% 20%
17%
32%
28%
24% 23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials
Urban Suburban Rural

19. 19
NC Party Registration by
Generation (10-3-15)
41%
50%
44%
38% 36%
28%
17%
22% 30% 38%
30% 33% 33% 31%
25%
0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Statewide Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials
Democrats Unaffiliated Republicans Libertarians

20. 20
Racial Composition by
Party Registration of
NC Millennial Voters
62%
34%
70%
92%
79%
27%
55%
15%
3%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Statewide Democrats Unaffiliated Republicans Libertarians
White Black Indian Asian Multiracial Other Unknown

21. 21
Party Registration by
Racial Category of
NC Millennial Voters
20%
76%
49%
34%
47%
38%
24%
43%
21%
36%
53%
41%
47%
66%
36%
3%
14% 12% 11% 14%
9%
1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
White Black Indian Asian Multiracial Other Unknown
Democrats Unaffiliated Republicans Libertarians

22. 22
Estimated Turnout Rates for
NC Voters by Generation
68%
21%
55%
21%
77%
40%
68%
39%
84%
58%
78%
56%
83%
62%
69%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2008 2010 2012 2014
Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer Silent

23. 23
Questions