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scenario analysis

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    scenario analysis scenario analysis Presentation Transcript

    • Scenario Analysis Strategic Planning / Scenario Funnel Time Present Observable quantity Trend scenario Worse Case Best Case a Disturbance Decision Point A B b
    • Scenario Analysis Procedure 5. Evaluation of the scenario 1. Problem Analysis 2. Effects Analysis 3. Trend exploration 4. Scenario Development This is a placeholder text. All words can be replaced with your own. This is a placeholder text. All words can be replaced with your own. This is a placeholder text. This is a placeholder text. All words can be replaced with your own. This is a placeholder text. All words can be replaced with your own. Scenario technique
    • Scenario Analysis Phase model Interpretation 5 4 Development and Interpretation of phases 3 Trend projection and identification of scenarios 2 Effects Analysis 1 Tasks and problem analysis
    • Scenario Analysis Influencing Main opportunities
      Main Risks
      Strategic approaches to finding solutions The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text. Proposals to implement The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
    • Scenario Analysis Scenario Scenario Funnel + Positioning Present Short time Medium time Long time Trend scenario Disturbance Decision Point a b A1 B1 A2 B2 I IV II III + Case - Case
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    • Scenario Analysis Exponential Scenario Funnel Present Short time Medium time Long time Trend scenario Disturbance Decision Point
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      a b A1 B1 A2 B2 I IV II III + Case - Case
    • Scenario Analysis 2 Scenarios Scenario A
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      Scenario B
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      Disturbance Decision Point a A B b Time Observable quantity Present Trend scenario Best case Worse case
    • Scenario Analysis Future prospects Disturbance Decision Point Present Short time Medium time Long time
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      Trend scenario
    • Scenario Analysis 3 Scenarios in a scenario funnel Positive extreme scenario
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      Trend scenario
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      Negative extreme scenario
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      5-10 11-20 >20 Trend scenario Years + Case - Case Impact of decisions Disturbance Decision Point
    • Scenario Analysis Visions, utopias and future plans Present Observable quantity Past Future Empirical data, past performance Scenario Driver Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario E Discontinuity
    • Scenario Analysis Case Studies Best case
      Worse case
      Resulting consequences The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text. Influences The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
    • Scenario Analysis Risk -M atrix Slightly <20.000 € Medium <100.000 € More <500.000 € High <1.000.000 € Existential <5.000.000 € Damage level unable < 1% unlikely < 3% probably < 8% repeatedly < 15% frequently < 20% Probability XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX