Webcast Prepared for Members of The Advertising Research Foundation  Prepared by: Joel Rubinson, Chief Research Officer, T...
Can TV still work?  A prima facie case against… <ul><ul><li>DVR household penetration in 2008 has reached 25 - 30% (Eggert...
Can TV still work?  It’s even getting a little ugly… <ul><ul><li>A sense that there is something wrong about push marketin...
Can TV still work?  Some empirical results in favor… <ul><ul><li>Evidence was published in 2007 by professors Hu, Lodish, ...
Anecdote:  NYU marketing class <ul><li>I asked students to write down their favorite brand and then to comment on how they...
The key questions <ul><li>Has the effectiveness of TV impressions changed over time and if so, has it increased or decreas...
ARF conducted a meta-analysis of seven US databases, 388 cases <ul><li>The ARF wanted to factually inform this issue via a...
The databases that the ARF had access to <ul><li>Sales lift analysis databases </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Represent a broad ran...
TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing
TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing
TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing
TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing
TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing <ul><li>Even when controll...
TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing Index of Incremental Days ...
TV can be an effective platform
TV can be an effective platform
TV can be an effective platform
TV can be an effective platform
Conclusions <ul><li>TV advertising does not appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing </li><...
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Tv Effectiveness Webcast Rubinson

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A meta-analysis of 388 cases reports on the trends in effectiveness of TV advertising

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Tv Effectiveness Webcast Rubinson

  1. 1. Webcast Prepared for Members of The Advertising Research Foundation Prepared by: Joel Rubinson, Chief Research Officer, The ARF January 14, 2009 [email_address] Follow me on twitter @joelrubinson Empirical Generalizations Regarding the Effectiveness of TV Advertising Over Time
  2. 2. Can TV still work? A prima facie case against… <ul><ul><li>DVR household penetration in 2008 has reached 25 - 30% (Eggerton, 2008; Goetzel, 2008; Steinberg, 2008) and 50% of DVR owners typically fast forward (Morrissey, 2008). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in TV commercial clutter. Over the last 50 years, “non-program content” in a 60 minute prime time show has increased from 11 to 18 minutes (Papazian, 2007). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shift in media consumption patterns that have led 50%+ of TV viewers to multi-task, presumably paying less attention to TV as they are simultaneously on the web, using their phones, reading, etc. (MRI, 2008; Papper, Holmes, Popovich, & Bloxham, 2005). </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Can TV still work? It’s even getting a little ugly… <ul><ul><li>A sense that there is something wrong about push marketing that attempts to “interrupt” viewers and intrude </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ What would you rather have, 5 million impressions or 10 quality relationships?” ANA conference speaker </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ What is the future of a business where the consumer hates your product — in this case, advertising?”  Greg Stuart, former head of the IAB, in AdWeek </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Can TV still work? Some empirical results in favor… <ul><ul><li>Evidence was published in 2007 by professors Hu, Lodish, and Krieger from IRI Behaviorscan testing using experimental design that the average level of effectiveness of TV advertising, using test vs. control methods, has actually INCREASED. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evidence that people are in heightened states of awareness while fast forwarding and still absorb messages (especially those they have seen before). </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Anecdote: NYU marketing class <ul><li>I asked students to write down their favorite brand and then to comment on how they became “introduced” to that brand </li></ul><ul><li>I called on 5 students and no one said that TV was the way they became aware of the brand or even had much influence on them </li></ul><ul><li>One student said her favorite brand was Apple…here is the conversation that ensued… </li></ul><ul><li>Can people fully retrieve such information? </li></ul>
  6. 6. The key questions <ul><li>Has the effectiveness of TV impressions changed over time and if so, has it increased or decreased? </li></ul><ul><li>Is TV a reasonable option in the media mix or has a decline in effectiveness made it an undesirable way to spend your money? </li></ul>
  7. 7. ARF conducted a meta-analysis of seven US databases, 388 cases <ul><li>The ARF wanted to factually inform this issue via a meta-analysis…let’s harvest what the industry has learned! </li></ul><ul><li>To integrate the results across databases, we used an indexing approach </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Choose a “dependent variable” for each database (some measure of impact vs. weight on an “impressions” rather than dollar basis) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Average all the cases across time in a given database on this dependent measure and call that an index of 100 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Analyze the index of cases over time (trending up or down) and/or compare the index of effectiveness across different media platforms </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. The databases that the ARF had access to <ul><li>Sales lift analysis databases </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Represent a broad range of CPG product categories </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>IRI – (n = 125) controlled and matched market testing where the level of spending was increased substantially from a non-0 level </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>PM Group (n =37) and Dratfield Analytics (n = 27)—marketing Mix modeling </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>ARS® – (n = 112) modeling wearout factors, and GRP advertising pressure vs. the sales impact associated with advertising. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Cross Media comparison databases </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Represent a broad range of products and services (not limited to CPG) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Marketing Evolution (n = 40) and Dynamic Logic (n = 47) – respondent level, post-hoc experimental design methods </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>PointLogic/Compose – Media planning tool for analyzing the relative impact of various advertising platforms </li></ul></ul></ul>
  9. 9. TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing
  10. 10. TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing
  11. 11. TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing
  12. 12. TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing
  13. 13. TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing <ul><li>Even when controlling for copy quality and wearout, TV advertising effectiveness appears to be increasing. </li></ul>Index of Incremental Days of Sales / Persuasion Points Delivered
  14. 14. TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing Index of Incremental Days of Sales / Persuasion Points Delivered
  15. 15. TV can be an effective platform
  16. 16. TV can be an effective platform
  17. 17. TV can be an effective platform
  18. 18. TV can be an effective platform
  19. 19. Conclusions <ul><li>TV advertising does not appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing </li></ul><ul><li>TV can be an effective platform </li></ul><ul><li>TV appears to work best at generating brand awareness </li></ul><ul><li>Marketers must be alert to the dynamic nature of TV as long-form video becomes more available via other platforms and as TV becomes interactive and targetable </li></ul>
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