Newsletter Semanal "Markets Perspectives" Fincor 10-09


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Principais destaques:
Semana Passada:

-“O Euro é Irreversível” – Nova política monetária do banco Central Europeu;

-Zona Euro vai continuar a contrair;

-“Grécia: Vais ser expulsa da Zona Euro?”;

-“Espanha: Não tens alternativas”;

Estimativa Europa, não apresentam melhorias;

Estimativa EUA, “Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3), cada vez mais perto”;

Perspectivas para esta semana:


Tribunal Constitucional Alemão decide sobre ESM;

Eleições Legislativas Holanda;

Decisão da Troika sobre a Grécia;

Pedido de resgate (cada vez + próximo) por parte de Espanha?


Reunião do FED (5ª feira);

Anúncio do “Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3);

Dados macroeconómicos (Inflação, Vendas a retalho, Produção Industrial e Confiança do consumidor);


Dados macroeconómicos Import/Export (indicam abrandamento);

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Newsletter Semanal "Markets Perspectives" Fincor 10-09

  1. 1. Weekly Markets Perspectives September 10th, 2012 .Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides services of reception, execution, and transmission of orders. The contents mentioned in this document do notconstitute (nor should they be interpreted as to form) any kind of counseling, or investment recommendation, or a record of our trading prices, or anoffer or solicitation to trade in any financial instrument. Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. will not accept any responsibility resulting from any use referring tosaid content or about any resulting effect that could have occurred.
  2. 2. ECB – “The Euro is Irreversible”-Draghi announced the Outright Monetary -Draghi told that in case a country starts deviatingTransactions Program (OMT). Within it, the ECB will from the Program signed with the Rescue Funds,define a target to Yields and if that value is exceed the ECB might start selling bonds, increasing thethey will intervene buying bonds on secondary costs of funding of the To apply to the program, each countryneeds to implement reforms ands define financialtargets.-Bonds will have a maturity between 1 and 3 years,to guarantee that the ECB isn’t financing a State as itgoes against its mandate.-The purchases will be revealed on a weekly basis,to maintain transparency.-The ECB won’t have seniority against otherinvestors on these bonds.
  3. 3. The Eurozone will continue Greece: Are you going to getcontracting kicked from Eurozone?-The ECB revised its growth forecasts for theEurozone from -0,1% to -0,4% in 2012, and from 1% -Schäuble told in a Press Conference after a meetingto 0,5% in 2013. with the Greek Finance Minister that the country will only receive the next tranche if Troika’s report reveals that Greece has been implementing the Eurozone: GDP Growth austerity measures designed. 3,20% 2,90% 2,00% 1,70% 1,40% 0,30% 0,50% -0,40% -4,40% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  4. 4. Spain – You don’t have any alternatives-Andalusia asked for a bailout of €1B from theGovernment. It was the 4th region after Valencia,Murcia and Catalonia. Over 60% from the €18Bcapacity of the Regional Rescue Fund was alreadyspent with just these 4 regions.-After the announcement of the OMT Program,Spain’s Prime Minister told that his government willstudy if a bailout will be advantageous for Spain. OlliRehn thinks that Spain shouldn’t wait any longer,and should apply for a bailout.-So, how long will Spain wait until asks for a bailout?
  5. 5. Europe – The Outlook isn’t getting any better PMI Manufacturing PMI Services70 7060 6050 50 Germany Germany40 40 France France30 30 Italy Italy20 Eurozone 20 Eurozone10 UK 10 UK0 0
  6. 6. US – The QE3 is getting closer after this week data-Manufacturing Data got its worst value since 2009. -Non-Farm Payrolls provided another sign that the economy isn’t boosting. ISM Manufacturing Change in Non-Farm Payrolls63 275 25960 223 20257 157 143 141 11254 87 96 6851 45 49,648
  7. 7. Weekly PreviewEurope The most important events should be the Germany’s Constitutional Court decision over ESM, Parliamentary Elections in Holland, a decision over Greece by Troika and any new details about the start of the OMT Program by the ECB. We should follow closely Spain, as the country might be close of asking for a bailout and qualifying for the Program.US The FOMC Meeting might be crucial for the Markets Performance over the next weeks. The announcement of a QE3 is expected. It will be published economic data on the country, where we should focus on inflation, retail sales, industrial production and consumer confidence.Rest of All eyes are above China after economic data that continues to point to a slowdown of thethe economy.World
  8. 8. Weekly PreviewMarket IndicatorsWe remain positive for the markets, but there are some risks that can prompt them to fall. Vicious Cycle of Europe. We are currently on level 2. 2Y Bond Yields: Spread VS Germany 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 Spain Italy 3,00 2,70 2,00 2,21 1,00 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 CBOE PutCall Ratio 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,59 0,4 0,2 0
  9. 9. Weekly PreviewIdeas for the week: PortugalBES: Buy at the market, stop-loss at 0,65€. Reasons to buy: - The markets are rallying, due to the OMT from the ECB. As this Program will prompt to fall the Yields ofGovernment Bonds from countries that asked for assistance, the price of these securities will rise. As weknow, Portuguese Banks as BES are largely exposed to Portuguese Government Bonds. - The markets risks are falling, and with it the costs of financing of these companies. For a Bank from aperipheral country as BES, these are really good news. - From the major Banks in Portugal, this was the only who didn’t require any assistance from the PortugueseState for its recapitalization.