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Weekly
                                                     August 6, 2012
                                                                                 .




Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides services of reception, execution, and transmission of orders. The contents mentioned in this document do not
constitute (nor should they be interpreted as to form) any kind of counseling, or investment recommendation, or a record of our trading prices, or an
offer or solicitation to trade in any financial instrument. Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. will not accept any responsibility resulting from any use referring to
said content or about any resulting effect that could have occurred.
ECB
Mario Draghi disappointed investors last Thursday,      But were these news bad? We think that the ECB is
by not announcing any new measure. As we said,          trying to force these countries to implement the
the markets expected much more, at least the            reforms they need, as it is one of the conditions to
reactivation of the SMP (Security Markets               bailout a country that asks for it.
Programme).




Instead, he told that EFSF would only support
countries that asked directly for a Bailout, and that
the ECB might buy bonds with short maturities of
those countries.
Spain, how deep is the                                Greece, are you really going
hole?                                                 to leave the Eurozone?
How many more regions will ask for a bailout? Will    Everything depends on Troika’s report and the
the government ask for one as did Portugal, Ireland   Greek commitment with the programme.
and Greece? How are their 10 year government
bonds going to perform? Clearly, we don’t want
contagion to spread to Italy!!
EuroStoxx50   Draghi’s Speech
How is FED? As usual!
As we forecasted, the FED didn’t announce any new measure. As Bernanke said, they will keep tracking
American economy, and if they need to they will implement new measures.




  Source: Goldman Sachs

We continue to think that the FED won’t act in September. Even so, we should keep na eye on
macroeconomic data.
US: For a second straight month, manufacturing activity in the US contracted. Those are the worst
numbers since 2009. On the other hand, employment data was much better than expected as it was created
163K jobs in the country.



              ISM Manufacturing                                                                   Nonfarm Payrolls
 63                                                                                                                                               275
                                                                                                        251                                             259
                                                                    220                           246                                       223
 61                      59,9                                                               220                           202
 59                                                                                                                                   157                                          163
                                                                                                                                                              143
 57                                                                             120                                             112
                                                                          121         110                      84 96 85                                                  87
 55                                                                                                       54                                                        68        64
 53
 51                                              49,8
 49                                                           -27
                                                        -51
 47
                                                        08-31-10
                                                        09-30-10
                                                        10-31-10
                                                        11-30-10
                                                        12-31-10
                                                        01-31-11
                                                        02-28-11
                                                        03-31-11
                                                        04-30-11
                                                        05-31-11
                                                        06-30-11
                                                        07-31-11
                                                        08-31-11
                                                        09-30-11
                                                        10-31-11

                                                        12-31-11

                                                        02-29-12

                                                        04-30-12

                                                        06-30-12
                                                        11-30-11

                                                        01-31-12

                                                        03-31-12

                                                        05-31-12

                                                        07-31-12
Weekly Preview
Trading fundamentals? Weekly data should mark the pace

Europe    Production figures on several countries. Sovereign Crisis developments, namely, new developments about
          Greece. Keep na eye on Spain and Italy.



US        Earnings Season will continue, Macroeonomic figures .


Rest of
the       China will publish inflation data
World




  Positive week ahead? Still long term positive but keep na eye on the risks.

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Fincor:Newsletter Semanal 06 a 10 Agosto 2012

  • 1. Weekly August 6, 2012 . Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides services of reception, execution, and transmission of orders. The contents mentioned in this document do not constitute (nor should they be interpreted as to form) any kind of counseling, or investment recommendation, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer or solicitation to trade in any financial instrument. Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. will not accept any responsibility resulting from any use referring to said content or about any resulting effect that could have occurred.
  • 2. ECB Mario Draghi disappointed investors last Thursday, But were these news bad? We think that the ECB is by not announcing any new measure. As we said, trying to force these countries to implement the the markets expected much more, at least the reforms they need, as it is one of the conditions to reactivation of the SMP (Security Markets bailout a country that asks for it. Programme). Instead, he told that EFSF would only support countries that asked directly for a Bailout, and that the ECB might buy bonds with short maturities of those countries.
  • 3. Spain, how deep is the Greece, are you really going hole? to leave the Eurozone? How many more regions will ask for a bailout? Will Everything depends on Troika’s report and the the government ask for one as did Portugal, Ireland Greek commitment with the programme. and Greece? How are their 10 year government bonds going to perform? Clearly, we don’t want contagion to spread to Italy!!
  • 4. EuroStoxx50 Draghi’s Speech
  • 5. How is FED? As usual! As we forecasted, the FED didn’t announce any new measure. As Bernanke said, they will keep tracking American economy, and if they need to they will implement new measures. Source: Goldman Sachs We continue to think that the FED won’t act in September. Even so, we should keep na eye on macroeconomic data.
  • 6. US: For a second straight month, manufacturing activity in the US contracted. Those are the worst numbers since 2009. On the other hand, employment data was much better than expected as it was created 163K jobs in the country. ISM Manufacturing Nonfarm Payrolls 63 275 251 259 220 246 223 61 59,9 220 202 59 157 163 143 57 120 112 121 110 84 96 85 87 55 54 68 64 53 51 49,8 49 -27 -51 47 08-31-10 09-30-10 10-31-10 11-30-10 12-31-10 01-31-11 02-28-11 03-31-11 04-30-11 05-31-11 06-30-11 07-31-11 08-31-11 09-30-11 10-31-11 12-31-11 02-29-12 04-30-12 06-30-12 11-30-11 01-31-12 03-31-12 05-31-12 07-31-12
  • 7. Weekly Preview Trading fundamentals? Weekly data should mark the pace Europe Production figures on several countries. Sovereign Crisis developments, namely, new developments about Greece. Keep na eye on Spain and Italy. US Earnings Season will continue, Macroeonomic figures . Rest of the China will publish inflation data World Positive week ahead? Still long term positive but keep na eye on the risks.