Fincor Weekly Market Perspectives (11/03/2013)
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Fincor Weekly Market Perspectives (11/03/2013) Fincor Weekly Market Perspectives (11/03/2013) Presentation Transcript

  • 2013 Weekly Markets th, Perspectives11 nMarch For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
  • Quote of the week 2Quote of the week“…Turning to the potential costs of the Federal Reserves assetpurchases, there are some that definitely need to be monitoredover time. At this stage, I do not see any that would cause me toadvocate a curtailment of our purchase program…”Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks at The National Association forBusiness Economics, March 4th, 2013
  • Executive Summary 3 Executive SummaryS&P 500 had the biggest weekly rally since January, with all Spain’s 10-year yields dropped to the lowest level in10 industry groups showing gains in the week. The index was more than two years. Portugal’s 10-year bonds also hadsupported by further signs that the Federal Reserve will not their biggest weelkly gain in two months, helped byslow (at least for now) the pace of its monthly purchases, and Standard & Poor’s announcement that the rating agencyby a better-than-expected US employment report. The 236k raised the nation’s credit-rating outlook to Stable fromincrease in February nonfarm payrolls was well above market Negative. The Portuguese equity benchmark PSI20 roseexpectations, as the job market registered broad-based gains. 2.3% during the week, with BES up by more than 9%.The S&P 500 index is now less than one percent below its all-time record high. Meanwhile, Treasuries suffered in this risk- Meanwhile, Italy’s credit rating was cut by Fitch Ratingson environment. The 10-year yield finished the week above to BBB+ from A-. The outlook is negative. The downgradethe 2% mark. Nevertheless, the hit from sequestration still lies reflects the inconclusive results of the Italianahead, and is likely to put a damper on the pace of economic parliamentary elections and the ongoing economicactivity in Q2. recession. The gross general government debt is expected to peak in 2013 at close to 130% of GDP.The ECB left rates on hold at its March meeting, but theCouncil discussed a rate cut, signalling a bias in that The policy focus this week will be the EU summit on 14thdiscussion. Like in February, Draghi left the clear message that and 15th of March in Brussels. The theme will be thethe monetary policy stance is and will remain accomodative European Semester, the annual pan-European policyas long as is needed. Despite the downward revisions to the coordination cycle. However, concrete takeways are likelystaff GDP forecasts, the ECB maintained the assumption of to be limited.economic recovery this year. The Fed will release on Thursday its ComprehensiveThe Stoxx Europe 600 gained 2.3% this past week. The index Capital Analysis and Review, which will evaluate theclosed at the highest level since June 2008. The European banks’ ability to make capital distributions such asbenchmark is now up 5.7% so far this year. dividend payments and stock repurchases.
  • Economics - Europe 4 Eurozone: Final February PMI Eurozone: Retail sales starts 2013 on a remained stuck below 50 positive note• The final Euro area Composite PMI for February came • Euro area retail sales began 2013 on a positive note. in at 47.9, above the flash reading and consensus Retail sales in the region increased by 1.2% m/m, more expectations, but below the January print (48.6); than offsetting December’s 0.8% m/m drop;• The improvement was driven by better final • After declines or slight improvements in December, manufacturing and services PMIs relative to the flash, almost all countries showed a rebound in January. in both Germany and France; Germany led the way, with a 3.1% m/m rise;• The country breakdown showed that Composite PMIs • Should we look for an improvement in private indices deteriorated in Germany, Italy and Spain during consumption in Q1 2013? February. In Italy, the decline was broad-based across the industry and service sectors;• Activity in France improved in February, after having departed from that in Germany in recent months. Source: Bloomberg, Fincor Source: Eurostat, Fincor
  • Economics - Europe 5 Eurozone: Eurogroup / ECOFIN Spain: Higher unemployment… lower meetings Review consumer confidence• The Eurogroup has taken into consideration the • Spanish unemployment increased by 59,400 (+1.2% request made by Ireland and Portugal to extend the m/m) in February, lower than the consensus forecast maturities of their bailout loans. A final decision is (+75,000); expected to be taken in April. Ireland is asking for an • According to the National Statistics Institute survey, extension of 15 years, compared with the current there were almost 6 million people (registered and non- schedule which sees the shortest loans come to registered) out of work in Spain at the end of 2012; maturity in 2015. The current average maturity of the • Consumer confidence is reported to have dropped by 5 Irish and Portuguese EFSF and EFSM bailout loans has points in February according to the Spanish Sociological already been lengthened once from the original 7.5 Research Centre. This seems to highlight the pessimism years to around 13 years; felt by most Spaniards due to the steady uptrend seen in• Greece has met the MoU milestone for February. The unemployment. country will now receive the next disbursement of €2.8bn; Spain Registered Unemployment (m/m, 000s)• Cyprus has agreed to an independent evaluation of 200 money laundering practices. However, no progress has 150 been made on the extent of state-asset privatizations 100 and the restructuring of the domestic banking sector, 50 two important hurdles preventing a bailout 0 agreement. Meanwhile, according to the new Cypriot -50 Finance Minister, Cyprus banks have already suffered -100 substantial outflows from depositors;• Eurogroup confirmed that the Spanish banking -150 Jan-12 Abr-12 Jul-12 Out-12 Jan-13 programme remains on track. Source: Spanish Labour Ministry, Fincor
  • Economics - Europe 6Germany: German factory orders Germany: Wages continue to risesignal some downside risk to • In the steel industry (in North-West Germany), IG Metall agreed on a wage increase of 3% for a 15-month period.industrial production in the near-term A similar deal was concluded in part of the• January headline factory orders dropped by 1.9% m/m. wood/plastics sector (but covering 16 months). Core orders, that exclude volatile large transportation Moreover, doctor’s association Marburger Bund and equipment orders, fell by 3.0% m/m; municipality-owned hospitals agreed to a pay increase• The weakness in capital goods orders mainly came from of 2.6% from January 2013 and another 2.0% increase abroad, with total domestic orders doing somewhat for January 2014. Over the coming months, around 80 better. Overseas capital goods orders decreased 3.7% separate deals covering 12.5 million workers will be m/m, while orders from other euro area members fell negotiated; by 2.2% m/m; • The Bundesbank expects that negotiated wages will• German factory orders had a poor start into 2013. increase by 2.7% y/y in 2013. Investors remain focused Nevertheless, recent business surveys point towards a on German wages as a driver of domestic demand and better outlook. as a part of the needed rebalancing in the Euro area. 6 German Negotiated Wages Germany Factory Order Volumes (% m/m) 4 5 (hourly basis, % y/y) 3 4 2 3 1 2 0 1 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Deutsche Bundesbank Source: Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Economics - Europe 7 Germany: Industrial production France: 2014 budget plans to require unchanged in January additional savings• January industrial production remained at its December • A poll for Les Echos revealed that President Hollande level, +0.0% m/m vs. consensus +0.4% m/m, but the and Prime Minister’s popularity have registered in December print was revised up from 0.3% m/m to 0.6% March the second largest monthly fall since the election m/m; in May 2012;• Manufacturing activity, excluding construction and • The February survey of business confidence conducted energy production, declined by 0.2% m/m. Construction by the Central Bank of France showed a one-point gain was the bright spot, up by 3% m/m. The production of in the industrial sector, while that for services fell by two consumer good increased by 1.6% m/m; points. The Bank expects Q1 GDP to grow by 0.1% q/q;• Despite some weaker data for January, recent business • French Budget Minister announced that French surveys suggest Germany’s economy has reached a government ministers will be asked to find an additional turning point. €4bn in cost cuts in 2014, on top of the €10bn already programmed. According to the French Finance Minister, Germany Industrial Production (% y/y) France will miss the 3% budget deficit target in 2013. 16 The local government doesn´t want “to deepen austerity 14 at a time of … stagnation”. 12 France Government Budget Balance (% of GDP) 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 8 -1 6 -2 4 -3 2 -4 0 -5 -2 -6 -4 -7 Jan-11 Mai-11 Set -11 Jan-12 Mai-12 Set -12 Jan-13 -8 Source: Bundesbank, Fincor Source: Ernst & Young, Fincor
  • Economics - Europe 8ECB and BOE’s MPC hold policy unchanged• The ECB left rates on hold at its March meting. There were • At the conference call, there was less focus on the no hint of further non-conventional measures; exchange rate. However, Mr. Draghi reiterated that the• The Governing Council is still expecting a “gradual” exchange rate was “important for growth and price recovery in the economy, although the risks to the outlook stability”; remain to the “downside”; • The statement released by the ECB identifies the• The updated staff projections now point to a 0.5% real implementation of structural reforms as “essential” to GDP contraction in 2013 (-0.3% previously). The economy support the economy; is expected to grow by 1.0% next year; • Regarding the possibility of additional non-• The Governing Council sees the risks to the inflation conventional measures, Mr. Draghi said that “… on outlook as still “broadly balanced over the medium term”; credit and fragmentation… we are not committing or• The possibility of a rate cut has been discussed, according planning anything special”. The ECB sees a steady to Mr. Draghi, but the “prevailing consensus” was to leave reduction in the fragmentation of financial markets rates unchanged. Moreover, he mentioned that a cut to and the banking system; the deposit rate could have “serious unintended • The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee left consequences”; policy unchanged, with Bank rate held at 0.5% and theECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area (%) stock of asset purchases at £375bn. No material 2012 2013 2014 statement was released alongside the announcement. Dec 12 Mar 13 Dec 12 Mar 13 Dec 12 Mar 13HICP 2.5 / 2.5 2.5 1.1 / 2.1 1.2 / 2.0 0.6 / 2.2 0.6 / 2.0Real GDP -0.6 / -0.4 -0.5 -0.9 / 0.3 -0.9 / -0.1 0.2 / 2.2 0.0 - 2.0Private consumption -1.2 / -1.0 -1.2 -1.1 / -0.1 -1.3 / -0.3 -0.4 / 1.4 -0.3 / 1.5Government consumption -0.6 / -0.2 0.0 -1.2 / 0.0 -0.9 / -0.1 -0.4 / 1.2 -0.4/ 1.2Gross fixed capital formation -4.2 / -3.4 -4.0 -4.2 / -1.0 -3.8 / -1.0 -1.0 / 3.6 -0.9 / -3.5Exports 2.1 / 3.7 2.9 -0.4 / 5.0 -1.3 / -3.5 2.0 / 8.6 0.8 / 7.8Imports -1.1 / 0.3 -0.7 -1.7 / 3.7 -2.1 / -2.3 1.7 / 7.7 1.0 - 7.2Source: European Central Bank
  • Economics - Europe 9 Portugal: Industry turnover is still Portugal: S&P’s revises outlook to contracting stable. BB rating reaffirmed• In nominal terms, the industry turnover index for • Standard & Poor’s believes that the EFSF and the EFSM Portugal dropped by 4.7% y/y in January (vs. 6.8% y/y are likely to extend their loans, thereby reducing the in December). The slight improvement of the headline Portuguese government’s refinancing risks; index is explained by the behavior of the external • Moreover, the Troika is expected to adjust Portugal’s fiscal market index, which moved from -7.6% y/y in consolidation path under the programme, which would December to -2.0% y/y. The domestic market index make the adjustment process more sustainable, according was almost unchanged in February, down 6.6% y/y, to S&P; following -6.3% in the previous month; • Portugal’s GDP is expected to contract by 1.5% in 2013,• Employment, wages and hours worked (adjusted for before returning to modest growth in 2014 and 2015. The calendar effects) in the sector fell by 4.0% y/y, 4.7% general government deficit is expected to be around 5% in y/y and 3.7%, respectively. 2013, compared with 6.1% in 2012, excluding one-off Portugal Industry Turnover Index (y/y %) items; 20% • S&P mentions that Portugal has one of the highest 15% external debt net of liquid assets of all rated sovereigns 10% (at around 300% of current account receipts). 5% Nevertheless, the rating agency expects a current account 0% surplus position in 2013 for the first time since 1994. -5% -10% Portugal Sovereign Ratings -15% Rating agency Rating Outlook -20% Moodys Ba3 Negative -25% S&Ps BB Stable -30% Fitch BB+ Negative 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Fincor Source: Statistical Office of Portugal, Fincor
  • Economics - US 10US: ISM Non-manufacturing above US: February nonfarm payrolls wasexpectations in February well above market expectations• The ISM Non-manufacturing index increased to 56 in • The February increase in nonfarm payrolls was better- February, above consensus forecast of 55; than-expected at 236k (vs. consensus of +165k).• The forward-looking new orders component was up to Cumulative revisions to prior months were -15k. Job 58.2, while the employment component ticked down gains were particularly robust in construction (+48k); slightly to 57.2 (but still comfortably in the expansion • The February report points to a gradually improving territory); trend. Given the upward revisions included in the• The Beige Book continued to describe activity expanding at annual benchmark, the 3-, 6-, and 12-month averages a “modest or moderate pace”. The consumer sector stand at 191k, 187k and 164k; activity reportedly held up well despite the large tax • The unemployment rate dropped to 7.7% (vs. increase at the start of the year. Auto sales were consensus of 7.9%). Nevertheless, the labour force mentioned to be supported by “pent-up demand”. “Home participation rate declined by 0.1pp to 63.5%. construction increased in most Districts” and “home prices edged higher in the majority of districts”. US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (000s) 600 US ISM Non-manufacturing and GDP 62 6 400 58 4 200 54 2 0 50 0 -200 46 -2 -400 Last 3 Months MA 42 -4 -600 38 -6 -800 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 -1,000 ISM Non-manufacturing Index (LHS) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP (y/y %, RHS) Source: ISM Institute, Fincor Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics, Fincor
  • Economics - Asia 11Japan: Kuroda reconfirmed his Japan: Growth close to 0%. Marketcommitment to achieving 2% expects recovery from Jan-Mar 2013 • As was expected by market participants, the Bank of Japaninflation decided not to change monetary policy at its policy meeting• The government’s nominee for the next BoJ governor on March 6th-7th. The next policy meeting scheduled to April gave at the beginning of last week testimony at the 3rd-4th is expected to be conducted under the new governor Steering Committee of the Lower House; and deputy governors;• He considered that the BoJ has not done enough to • The economic assessment was upgraded to “has stopped achieve a 2% inflation target; weakening” from the previous “appears to stop• The BoJ should be accountable for achieving the weakening”; inflation target. This target needs to be achieved in • Oct-Dec 2012 real GDP growth was revised up to +0.2% q/q approximately two years; annualized from the preliminary figure of -0.4%;• Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned that the BoJ should not • The January non-adjusted current account balance came in purchase foreign bonds and that the BoJ’s at a deficit for a third consecutive month. A large trade underwriting of JGBs is strictly prohibited by the law; deficit is the major cause. However, in January, exports grew• He emphasized the importance of extending the JGB (+6.4% y/y) for the first time in eight months. maturity (to equal to or more than 5 years) and purchasing risk assets (corporate bonds and ETFs were mentioned);• Both Houses are expected to approve Kuroda as the next BoJ governor. Source: Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan, Fincor
  • Economics – Emerging Markets 12China: Government keeps 2013 real China: Jan-Feb IP and retail salesGDP growth target at 7.5% weaker than expected. Inflation• China’s top leaders met at the annual People’s Congress; above expectations• Premier Wen’s final work showed that China has kept its • CPI rose more than expected in February (3.2% y/y vs. 2013 GDP growth target unchanged at 7.5%; consensus 3.0% y/y). Both food and non-food CPI were• Inflation is targeted at 3.5% for 2013; higher than expected. Will this upside surprise lead to a• China’s 2013 budget deficit is planed at about 2% of tighter policy stance? GDP, and will include a 10.7% spending increase in the • Industrial production rose 9.9% y/y in January and military’s budget; February (consensus 10.3%);• Meanwhile, the Chinese government announced new • Nominal retail sales increased by 12.3% y/y in January measures to control real estate speculation, which and February (consensus 15.2% y/y). Does this weak includes raising the down payment ratio and mortgage activity data suggest that the overall policy environment rates for second homes in localities with excessive has become less supportive? property speculation and a 20% profit tax on price • Fixed asset investment presented a January and differentials between selling price and purchase prices February year-to-date growth of 21.2% y/y (consensus on homes. The government is expected to release more 20.7% y/y), which suggests robust investment demand. details over the coming days;• A PBoC deputy Governor said that the country is “fully China Activity and Inflation Indicators - Data Summary (%, y/y) prepared” for a currency war. Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Industrial Production 9.9 9.9 10.3 10.1 9.6 9.2 8.9 9.2 Nominal Retail Sales 12.3 12.3 15.2 14.9 14.5 14.2 13.2 13.1 Real Retail Sales 9.5 9.5 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.2 12.1 12.2 Nominal FAI 21.2 21.2 19.9 20.7 22.2 22.2 19.0 20.4 CPI 3.2 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.8 PPI -1.6 -1.6 -1.9 -2.2 -2.8 -3.6 -3.5 -2.9 Source: NBS, CEIC, Fincor
  • Economics - Europe 13 Markets – PortugalPSI20 Weekly Review• The Portuguese Stock Index rose 2.3% during last week;• Altri rose 6%. The company released its Q4 2012 results. Revenues increased by 19% y/y, supported by strong volumes (227k tonnes sold), which offset lower selling prices in the quarter. EBITDA margin improved by 7.2pp to 26.5%. Net profit reached €12.5mn. Net debt went down by €59mn y/y to €620mn. The company has been able to reduce debt by c.€190mn over the last 3 years;• Cofina increased 3.8%. The company released its Q4 2012 results last week. Revenues reached €27.7mn (-14% y/y) and were impacted by lower revenues from newspapers. EBITDA margin improved from 16.6% in Q4 2011 to 18.8%, reflecting strong cost control (operating costs were down 16% y/y). Cofina continues to be able to offset a weak advertising market through a remarkable management in the costs side. Cofina ia about to launch its Correio da Manhã TV on the 19th of March;• Galp rose 3.8%. The company informed about the results from the well 3- BRSA-1132-RJS (Iara West-2), located in the Iara evaluation area, in the pre-salt of Santos Basin (Galp has a 10% stake). This is the fourth well drilled in the Iara area. Results proved the presence of oil;• ZON fell 1%. The Board of Directors of both ZON and Sonaecom have approved the merger between ZON and Optimus. ZON’s Board of Directors also approved the increase of its registered share capital from €3,090,968.28 to €5,151,613.80, through the issuance of 206,064,552 new shares at the nominal value of €0.01 each, as well as the change of the corporate name to ZON OPTIMUS, S.A. Source: Bloomberg
  • Markets – Spain 14 Economics - EuropeIBEX35 Weekly Review• The Spanish Equity Market Index IBEX35 increased 5.4% during last week;• Telefonica increased 11%. Telefonica and Claro signed a MoU to build 3G and 4G networks sharing plan during the next three years. The two companies wants to optimize investment, operation, and maintenance of its networks. This is expected to reduce significantly capex requirements;• Repsol rose 7.2%. Argentinean press reports stated that the country is close to reach an agreement with Repsol over compensation for the expropriation of YPF. Sources at Repsol once again denied any ongoing negotiations;• Acciona was up 6.2%. The company will open a turbine-hub assembly plant in Brazil, as Acciona seeks to comply with the country’s local-content requirements for wind-power equipment;• BBVA rose 5.4%, while Banco Popular increased 5.6% during the week. The IMF urged Spanish officials to force banks to restrict bonuses and cash dividends, if those measures are needed to increase the strengh of the financial system;• Grifols rose 0.9% during the week, but underperformed the Spanish index. According to press reports, the company has signed a supply agreement with Cadence Pharmaceuticals for the development, manufacture, and supply of OFIRMEV injection in flexible plastic bags;• Abengoa rose 1.4%. The company has been awarded by the Mexico’s Federal Electricity Commission a contract worth US$54mn for the engineering, construction and start-up of an electricity transmission project in the country. Source: Bloomberg
  • Markets – US and Europe 15Last week’s European and US equity market highlights Citigroup Daily Stock Price Changes (%)• The Fed released last week its latest banking stress stest results, which concluded that 17 out of 18 bank holding companies will have a projected 3.9 3.8 tier 1 common ratio above the minimum 5% under a “severaly adverse 3.2 scenario” (a GDP decline of 5%, unemployment at 12%, equity prices down by 50%, and real estate down by 20%). Meanwhile, Citigroup asked the 0.9 Federal Reserve permission to buy back US$ 1.2bn of shares, without 0.4 seeking a dividend increase, a year after its previous request was rejected. 04-Mar 05-Mar 06-Mar 07-Mar 08-Mar The stock rose 12.7% during the week;• The DJ Europe 600 index gained 2.3%, closing the week at the highest level since June 2008. The benchmark is now up 5.7% so far this year;• Vodafone rose 9.5% this past week. Press reports suggest that Verizon is working to resolve its relationship with Vodafone, although no formal discussions are currently under way. According to the same article, the two companies have explored a variety of options over, including a full merger and a partial sale;• On March 5th, Petrobras has unexpectedly announced a 5% increase in diesel prices. The Federal government’s decision to increase diesel prices Petrobras Daily Stock Price Changes (%) 15.1 was strongly positive for investor sentiment, and demonstrate that the government is concerned regarding the company’s ability to execute its huge 2012-2016 capex plan. The stock rose by 16.4% during last week, 5.3 reflecting lower concerns rearding a possible future equity offering and a lower probability of a dividend cut; 0.3• McDonalds rose 3.2%. The company reported February global SSS of -1.5%, -2.2 -2.1 roughly in line with the -1.6% consensus. March (8%) is expected to be 04-Mar 05-Mar 06-Mar 07-Mar 08-Mar another mouth of tough comparables. Source: Bloomberg
  • The Week Ahead Economics - Europe 16What we are watching this week: Event Date Hour Survey Prior• This week in Europe, final HICP figures will be Trade Balance, Germany 11-Mar 07:00 14.4B 12.0B released for the euro area countries, with the figure Imports SA m/m, Germany Exports SA m/m, Germany 11-Mar 11-Mar 07:00 0.7% 07:00 0.5% -1.3% 0.3% for the bloc itself due out on Friday; Industrial Production m/m, France 11-Mar 07:45 -0.2% -0.1% BoJ Minutes for February Meeting 11-Mar 23:50 n.a. n.a.• The key policy focus will be the EU summit at the GDP sa and wda q/q, Italy 11-Mar 09:00 -0.9% -0.9% end of this week. However, no major policy GDP q/q, Portugal CPI y/y, India 11-Mar 12-Mar 11:00 n.a. n.a. 10.6% -1.8% 10.8% innovations are expected; Industrial Production y/y, India 12-Mar 05:30 1.0% -0.6% Consumer Price Index m/m, Germany 12-Mar 07:00 0.6% 0.6%• In the US, the NFIB Small Business Survey is due on Industrial Production m/m, UK 12-Mar 09:30 0.1% 1.1% Industrial Production m/m, Mexico 12-Mar 14:00 -1.1% -2.1% Tuesday (at 12:30 GMT). After a sharp drop in Q4 Unemployment Rate (SA), South Korea 12-Mar 23:00 3.2% 3.2% 2012, the NFIB small business optimism index US House Budget Committee announce 2014 Budget Proposal 12-Mar n.a. n.a. n.a. Consumer Price Index m/m, France 13-Mar 07:45 0.5% -0.5% recovered in January. Will the February report show Consumer Price Index m/m, Spain 13-Mar 08:00 0.1% -1.3% Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa m/m, Euro-Zone 13-Mar 10:00 0.0% 0.7% further improvement? Advance Retail Sales, US 13-Mar 12:30 0.5% 0.1%• In Asia, the India WPI Inflation should be released Retail Sales Less Autos, US 13-Mar 12:30 0.5% 0.2% Unemployment Rate, Australia 14-Mar 00:30 5.5% 5.4% on Thursday. It has surprised on the downside for South Korea 7-Day Repo Rate 14-Mar 01:00 2.75% 2.75% Industrial Production m/m, Japan 14-Mar 04:30 n.a. 1.0% four consecutive months. The industrial production Retail Sales (Real) y/y, Spain 14-Mar 08:00 n.a. -10.2% number for the country will be out on Tuesday. SNB rate announcement 14-Mar 08:30 n.a. n.a. ECB Publishes Monthly Report, Euro-Zone 14-Mar 09:00 n.a. n.a. Improving inflation and disappointing activity Current Account Balance, US 14-Mar 12:30 -$112.8B -$107.5B Producer Price Index m/m, US 14-Mar 12:30 0.6% 0.2% numbers could push the RBI to a rate cut at its March PPI Ex Food & Energy m/m, US 14-Mar 12:30 0.1% 0.2% 19th meeting; Initial Jobless Claims, US 14-Mar 12:30 n.a. 340K Norges bank rate annoucement 14-Mar 13:00 n.a. n.a.• The Bank of Korea is likely to keep monetary policy Bank of England releases 2013 Q1 Quarterly Bulletin 14-Mar n.a. n.a. n.a. on hold at its March 14th meeting, despite the latest EU Leaders begin 2 days summit in Brussels General Government Debt, Italy 14-Mar 15-Mar n.a. 09:30 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,988.4B CPI numbers showing that headline inflation is Euro-Zone CPI m/m, Euro-Zone 15-Mar 10:00 0.4% -1.0% Empire Manufacturing, US 15-Mar 12:30 8.0 10.0 running well below the central bank’s target range, Consumer Price Index m/m, US 15-Mar 12:30 0.4% 0.0% CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m, US 15-Mar 12:30 0.2% 0.3%• Finally, this week sees the latest update on credit Industrial Production, US 15-Mar 13:15 0.3% -0.1% conditions in China, with the release of total social Capacity Utilization, US 15-Mar 13:15 79.3% 79.1% U. of Michigan Confidence, US 15-Mar 13:15 78.0 77.6 financing numbers for February. Source: Bloomberg
  • The Week Ahead Economics - Europe 17 The Week Ahead: Economics US CPI Inflation (y/y %)• US Retail sales should be released on Wednesday (at 13:30 GMT). Higher 6 5 payroll taxes are expected to have limited household purchasing power. 4 Market consensus expects a solid 0.5% m/m gain in nominal headline 3 spending, which should reflect higher gasoline prices during the month of 2 1 February; 0• Surging gas prices are also expected to impact the February CPI print (due -1 Headline Index Friday at 13:30 GMT). Consensus expects a 0.4% m/m rise, following 0.0% -2 Core Inflation -3 m/m in January. Core price inflation is expected to show a more modest 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 N.Y. Fed "Empire Manufacturing" Survey increase (+0.2% m/m); 40• The University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment is due on 30 Friday (at 14:55 GMT). The reported strength in the labour market and a 20 10 rising stock market is likely to have supported consumer sentiment in 0 early March, despite higher gasoline prices; -10 -20• The N.Y. Fed “Empire State” manufacturing survey (at 13:30 GMT) and -30 Industrial Production (14:15 GMT) should both be released on Friday. -40 08 09 10 11 12 13 Consensus forecasts a healthy gain in industrial production in February France Industrial Production Index (y/y %) (+0.3% m/m); 10• Final Italian Q4 GDP data is due today. No revisions from its flash estimate 5 of -0.9% q/q (-2.7% y/y) are expected. French industrial production for 0 January is also due this morning, and is likely to show another m/m fall; -5• The final inflation number for Germany is due on Tuesday, and is likely to -10 remain unchanged from its flash estimate; -15• Industrial production for the Euro zone and the French inflation data will -20 both be released on Wednesday. 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Bloomberg
  • The Week Ahead Economics - Europe 18The Week Ahead: EU Summit in Brussels and Earnings Season in IberiaEU Summit to be held on Thursday Sonae and Inditex to report earningsand Friday (14th and 15th) on Wednesday• The quarterly leaders’ meeting will take place as usual in • Sonae is expected to announce its FY2012 results Brussels; Wednesday (March 13th) before market opening. A• European leaders are expected to discuss the growth conference call will be held on the same day at 16:00 strategy to incorporate in their Stability and Growth UK/Portuguese time; Programme; • The numbers of Sonaecom and Sonae Sierra have• Market doesn’t expect any concrete policy decision. already been reported. For that reason, the main focus European leaders will probably reaffirm the need to get will be on the margins delivered by the Food Retail to the right balance between fiscal consolidation and division. The company has already disclosed a -3.7% LfL growth; sales evolution in Q4 2012. The Non-Food business is• European leaders will likely also highlight the need to expected to remain constrained by the weak macro carry on with structural reforms in order to reduce backdrop; unemployment and improve government budget • Inditex reports results on Wednesday before market balance; open. A conference call will be held on the same day at• The first phase of the 2013 European Semester, which 8:00 UK/Portuguese time; coordinates member state economic, fiscal and • Investors will probably focus on LfL sales growth in Q4 employment policies will be completed; 2012, given a tough macro outlook in Europe. The• Progress against the 2012 targets will be assessed and company is also expected to provide an update on sales guidance given to member states on the 2013 Stability evolution in the first weeks of 2013. and Convergence Programmes and the Europe 2020 flagship initiatives.
  • The Week Ahead Economics - Europe 19The Week Ahead: European coporate events and weekly supply monitorEnel and ENI will hold their Strategy Weekly supply outlookDay • This week’s supply in Europe comes from the• Enel will present its 2013-2017 Strategic Plan, which is Netherlands, Germany and Italy; expected to address its outlook for earnings and • In the US, the Treasury will issue €66bn across the 3-, dividends. 10- and 30-yr sectors; Corporate Events in Europe Company Event Sector • In the UK, £1.5bn of a conventional gilt will be issued Monday, 11 March 2013 Pirelli FY results Auto Parts & Tires this week. Tuesday, 12 March 2013 Enel FY results Electric Utilities Munich Re Release of the full balance sheet and P&L Insurance Intesa SanPaolo Q4 results Banks Lafarge Shareholders Meeting Building Materials Antofagasta FY results Mining & Metals Geberit FY results Building Materials Galenica FY results Retail Air-France Traffic Statistics Airlines Computercenter FY results Technology Services Wednesday, 13 March 2013 This weeks Selected Bonds and T-Bills Supply Prudential FY results Insurance Issue Country Date Amount (€bn) Hour (GMT) Enel Strategy Day Electric Utilities E.ON FY results Electric Utilities 6-month TB Germany 11-Mar €4bn 10:30 Snam Strategy Day Gas Utilities 3-, 6- and 12-month TB France 11-Mar €7.8bn 13:50 Adecco Q4 results General Industrial Services G4S FY results General Industrial Services 6- and 12-month TB Spain 12-Mar n.a. 09:30 Thursday, 14 March 2013 Volkswagen FY results Automobile Manufacturers 12M TB Italy 12-Mar €7.75bn 10:00 Eni Strategy Day Energy Bundei 2023 reopening Germany 12-Mar €1bn 10:30 BBVA AGM Banks Morrison Preliminary results Food Retailers DSL Apr 2016 Netherlands 12-Mar €2.5-3.5bn Lufthansa FY results Airlines 3-year US 12-Mar $32bn Gemalto Q4 Results Communications Technology Boskalis FY results General Industrial Services Schatz Mar 2015 reopening Germany 13-Mar €5bn 10:30 SGL Carbon FY results Industrial, Diversified Wacker Chemie FY results Chemicals BTP 2-, 4-, 5- and 15-year Italy 13-Mar €5.5bn 10:00 Friday, 15 March 2013 Gilt 3.75% 2052 UK 13-Mar £1.5bn H&M February Sales Retail Unicredit Q4 results Banks 10-year US 13-Mar $21bn ArcelorMittal Investor Day Mining & Metals Terna FY results Electric Utilities 30-year US 14-Mar $13bn Rentokil FY results General Industrial Services Source: Treasuries; Fincor Source: Fincor
  • The Week Ahead Economics - Europe 20The Week Ahead: Political situation in Italy and Idea of the weekPolitical situation in Italy Idea of the week: Indra• According to the Italian Constitution, the first session of the new Parliament has to occur within • Indra is Spain’s leading IT services provider. Formerly a 20 days of the elections. In the current case, this government-owned company, it has exposure to defense and would point to March 17th, which is a Sunday. The public administration contracts. However, the company has political situation remains complex. The leader of been increasing its exposure to international markets, the 5SM said that his movement will not support particularly to emerging markets. FY 2012 results came in line a centre-left minority government. The President with expectations. The severe weakness in Spain continued in of the Republic stated that he will not resign Q4 2012 with revenues down by 22% y/y, after -24% y/y in Q3 before the end of his mandate (May 15th); 2012. However, the international business was up 25% in 2012• Investors will watch closely the election of the pre M&A (vs. -18% in Spain); presidents of the two houses, particularly that in • The cautious outlook has recently weighed on shares. the Senate. The President in the Senate is the Following the expansion of balance sheet of the past few years, second highest institutional office in Italy. That the company announced that managing the balance sheet will should occur on March 15th or March 18th; now be its priority.• Given the huge debt stock of 127% of GDP, the Hence, the company debt-sustainability of Italy can quickly be could selectively divest questioned again by markets. Hence, it will be in some areas and it interesting to watch market reaction (if any) to intends to maintain Fitch Ratings’ decison to downgrade Italy’s long- dividend policy without term foreign and currency issuer default ratings to increasing financial BBB+ from A- (outlook negative). The rating leverage (Net debt / agency considers that a weaker government could Ebitda 2.1x at 2012 year- be slower and less able to respond to domestic end). and external economic factors.
  • Charts we are watching 21Charts we are watching• On Tuesday, the DOW closed at its record high, breaking above the % above (below) previous historical highs 5 previous high seen on September 10th 2007, and continued to mark -5 new highs during the rest of the week. The S&P 500 ended the past week less than 1% away from its record close, which it reached on -15 October 9th, 2007. The index is now up 8.8% since de end of 2012. -25 Despite subdued expectations for growth at the beginning of 2013 due -35 to the significant tightening the economy had to absorb, US equity -45 indices have nonetheless been supported by the resilience showed by -55 the economy, helped by the sizable monetary easing put in place by the Fed. Meanwhile, in Europe, the DAX is only -1.5% from its peak (July -65 2007). Peripheral Europe is faring much worse. Portugal, Spain and Italy -75 PSI 20 CAC 40 DAX IBEX 35 FTSEMIB Bovespa S&P 500 DJIA Shanghai are now 59%, 45.9%, and 67.7% from their historical highs. Finally, the Composite Source: Bloomberg CAC 40 is not doing much better, with the French index being 44.5% below its peak in September 2000. Portucel and Altri Relative Performance• Altri reported the past week Q4 2012 results that surpassed market 130 Dec 31, 2012 = 100 expectations. The company has been able to reduce debt (net debt / 125 Ebitda at 4.3x remains high, however), as well as to increase its efficiency 120 and profitability (through cost cutting). Altri remains a leveraged player 115 on pulp price momentum. Pulp prices have been on a rising trend in 2013, even more noticeable in Euro-based prices, reflecting the 110 weakening of the Euro area currency. Altri has started to outperform 105 Altri Portucel. Portucel is mainly exposed to the UWF paper market, which has 100 Portucel been soft so far this year, with the BEKP representing only a small share 95 of the company’s total revenues. It seems that the cycle is, at least for Dez-12 Jan-13 Fev-13 now, on the side of Altri. Source: Bloomberg
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