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Fincor: Perspectivas mercados financeiros Agosto
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Fincor: Perspectivas mercados financeiros Agosto Presentation Transcript

  • 1. FINCOR – Sociedade Corretora, S.A.
  • 2. Markets Perspectives August 1, 2012 .Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides services of reception, execution, and transmission of orders. The contents mentioned in this document do notconstitute (nor should they be interpreted as to form) any kind of counseling, or investment recommendation, or a record of our trading prices, or anoffer or solicitation to trade in any financial instrument. Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. will not accept any responsibility resulting from any use referring tosaid content or about any resulting effect that could have occurred.
  • 3. July: Recap
  • 4. Spain: The target deficit of the country for the next two years was relaxed by the EU. This representsthe third ajustment so far this year. Are these goals set by the EU credible, taking into account theeconomical crisis that the country is facing? Spain: Government Budget Deficit 11,20% 9,30% 8,50% 6,30% 4,50% 4,50% 3,00% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  • 5. Spain: The banking sector is under pressure, with NPLs increased to their highest levels since 1994. Source: BNP Paribas Source: BNP Paribas
  • 6. Spain: Further evidence to the pressure on the Spanish banking sector can be seen by the fact thatloans and deposits continue to fall. Source: BNP Paribas Source: BNP Paribas
  • 7. Spain: 18bn euros fund for the Autonomous Regions. Valencia, Murcia and Catalonia have alreadyrequested a bailout. Who’s next? What is the real dimension of Spanish debt? Meanwhile, the countrybanned the sort-selling of their stocks until October. Germany: 10Y Government Bond Yield 7,7 7,621 7,5 7,267 7,3 7,1 7,062 6,962 6,928 6,9 6,7 6,749 6,5 6,3 6,1 Revision of the Valencia New high NPLs Draghi’s Government resquests anmnounced speech Budget Deficit help
  • 8. Greece: In their visit to Greece, Troika will analyse the policies that the country implemented. Thiswill lead to a decision on whether Greece will receive the next tranche of their aid package.According to some European Leaders, Greece won’t receive the next tranches of their aid package if theydon’t fulfill their obligations. Factoring in this sentiment, Citibank considers that there is a 90% probability ofGreece leaving the Eurozone.
  • 9. ECB: Cut the interest rates in the region to 0.75%, a historical minimum. Interest rates on deposits fell to0%. Even so, this measure had pratically no effect on the markets. Instead, we saw investors begin to searchfor other safe assets to pour their money into. As it happened, German Government Bonds becamesomewhat of a safehaven. Therefore, this measure had no effect on the economy of peripherical countries. Germany: 10Y Government Bond Yield 1,6 1,533 1,5 ECB cuts interest rates 1,4 1,382 1,3 1,2 1,285 1,1 1 Source: Goldman SachsReacting to this crisis, Mario Draghi said that“within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes topreserve the Euro”. Markets closed the month with a feeling of relief due to these statements.
  • 10. USA – Macro vs. Micro. Two different speeds?More than half of the companies in the S&P 500 have already presented results for this earnings season.Earnings results have been surprisingly good, but with a lower dimension than previous quarters. Earnings Season Sector Positive Negative Inline Index 71,62% 27,06% 1,32% S&P500 Oil and Gas 73,91% 26,09% 0,00% 172 Basic Materials 52,63% 47,37% 0,00% 121 Industrials 76,79% 19,64% 3,57% 90 Consumer Goods 75,76% 24,24% 0,00% 41 Health Care 77,42% 19,35% 3,23% 28 Consumer Services 66,67% 30,30% 3,03% 13 10 6 6 6 1 1 2 1 1 Telecommunications 80,00% 20,00% 0,00% 08 -14 Jul 29 - 04 Aug 05 - 11 Aug 12 - 18 Aug 18 - 25 Aug 15 - 21 Jul 22 - 28 Jul 07- 13 Oct 02 - 08 Sep 09 - 15 Sep 16 - 22 Sep 10 - 16 Jun 17 - 23 Jun 24 - 30 Jun 26 - 1 Sep Utilities 83,33% 16,67% 0,00% Financials 68,85% 31,15% 0,00% Technology 69,44% 30,56% 0,00%
  • 11. USA – Macro vs. Micro: two different speeds?Economic Indicators point for an economic slowdown. Bernanke has already indicated that if the currentsituation deteriorates, he will implement new measures. Leading Indicators 2 1,7 1,5 1 0,5 0 -0,5 -0,3 -0,7 -1
  • 12. Emerging Markets: China cut again its interest rates. Will the economy continue its soft-landing? China GDP China PMI Manufacturing 58 11,90% 56,6 10,70% 10,30% 9,60% 9,80% 9,70% 9,50% 9,10% 56 8,90% 8,10% 7,60% 54 53,3 52 50 50,2 48 49
  • 13. Central Banks: Apart from ECB and FED, other central banks made their homework. BOEincreased its QE programme in £50 Billions. Brasil cut SELIC, as the Bank of South Korea cut its interest rates. SELIC27,522,517,512,5 7,5
  • 14. Global Economy is slowing downIMF revised downward its forecasts for GDP of the global economy. Previous Forecasts New Forecasts Changes in Forecasts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 Global 5,30% 3,90% 3,50% 3,90% -0,10% -0,20% Developed Economies 3,20% 1,60% 1,40% 1,90% 0,00% -0,20% USA 3,00% 1,70% 2,00% 2,30% -0,10% -0,10% Eurozone 1,90% 1,50% -0,30% 0,70% 0,00% -0,20% Germany 3,60% 3,10% 1,00% 1,40% 0,40% -0,10% France 1,70% 1,70% 0,30% 0,80% -0,10% -0,20% Italy 1,80% 0,40% -1,90% -0,30% 0,00% 0,00% Spain -0,10% 0,70% -1,50% -0,60% 0,40% -0,70% Japan 4,40% -0,70% 2,40% 1,50% 0,40% -0,20% United Kingdom 2,10% 0,70% 0,20% 1,40% -0,60% -0,60% Emerging Economies 7,50% 6,20% 5,60% 5,90% -0,10% -0,20% China 10,40% 9,20% 8,00% 8,50% -0,20% -0,30% India 10,80% 7,10% 6,10% 6,50% -0,70% -0,70% Russia 4,30% 4,30% 4,00% 3,90% 0,00% -0,10% Brazil 7,50% 2,70% 2,50% 4,60% -0,60% 0,50% Mexico 5,60% 3,90% 3,90% 3,60% 0,30% 0,00% South Africa 2,90% 3,10% 2,60% 3,30% -0,10% -0,10%
  • 15. Portugal- Tagus increased the price offered per stock from 2,66€ to 2,76€ on their hostile takeover bid for Brisa. Adecision has to be made before August 8th, but indications are that they will be successful on the takeover.- BPI launched a rights offering to increase their capital by €200 million. The subscription price per stock is0,5€.- In the Earnings Season we would like to underline: i) BCP results were worst than expected, affected by domestic operations and their Greek operations; ii) Jerónimo Martins margins decreased on the back of the pressure in their domestic activities. Resultswere also affected by the fall of the LFL in Biedronka operations; iii) Sonaecom results were above expectations due to their fiscal savings; iiii) Zon results were in line with expectations, with ZAP sales increasing 13% QoQ.
  • 16. Markets Performance The markets kept pressed during this month, with a special regard to peripherical countries in Europe. Chg. % Chg. % Chg. % Chg. % Last Price Last Price MTD YTD MTD YTD 10Y bond yields: Spread Spain vs. Europe PSI 20 4688,08 -0,21% -14,67% FOREX Euro/$ 1,23 -2,32% -5,10% Germany IBEX35 CAC 40 6738,1 3291,66 -5,13% 2,97% -21,34% 4,17% £/Euro Euro/Yen 1,2746 96,08 -2,29% 4,08% -5,95% 3,73%6,5 6,385 DAX 30 6772,26 5,55% 14,82% Eur/CHF 1,20128 -0,01% 1,29% FTSE 100 5635,28 1,15% 1,13% Commodities 6 FTSE MIB 13890,99 -2,69% -7,94% CRB 482,44 1,44% 0,09% SMI 6399,27 5,48% 7,80% WTI Oil 87,96 3,03% -11,03%5,5 5,464 Euro Stoxx 50 2328 3,24% 4,07% Brent Oil 104,59 6,86% -0,31% USA Gold 1614,7 1,08% 3,26% 5 DOW 30 13008,68 1,00% 6,48% S&P500 1379,32 1,26% 9,68%4,5 Nasdaq 2939,52 0,15% 12,83% Latin America Bovespa 56097,05 3,21% -1,16% 4 Mexbol 40704,28 1,26% 9,78% Asia Nikkei 225 8695,06 -3,46% 2,84% Hang Seng 19796,81 1,83% 7,39%
  • 17. Next Month preview
  • 18. Will the ECB act?Everything points to the reopening of the SMP (Security Market Programme), by purchasing Spanish andItalian Government Bonds.However, it won’t be easy to convince Germany to use EFSF for that purpose. Nevertheless, expectations arehigh for tomorrow’s meeting.
  • 19. Spain, how deep is the Greece, are you really goinghole? to leave the Eurozone?How many more regions will ask for a bailout? Will Everything depends on Troika’s report and thethe government ask for one as did Portugal, Ireland Greek commitment with the programme.and Greece? How are their 10 year governmentbonds going to perform? Clearly, we don’t wantcontagion to spread to Italy!!
  • 20. Europe: Macro figures don’t look good..
  • 21. FED, what are you going to do?Will the FED act, and when will it be? Source: Goldman SachsWe don’t foresee any significative action by the FED in todays meeting.
  • 22. US: Frustating employment figures, significant macro slowdown QoQ
  • 23. Earnings Season in the USEarnings season will continue during the month of August. Below, we’ve underlined a few sectors andhighlighted select companies:Utilities: with Duke Energy CorpTechnology: with CiscoOil and Gas: with Marathon Oil Corp
  • 24. Emerging MarketsChina, what are you going to do? Everyone is Pressure is mounting in Middle East due to Syria andexpecting another cut on your interest rates. Iran. Oil prices have been rising, which might increase pressure over inflation. China Inflation WTI Oil 92,97 6,27% 93 5,73% 5,07% 90 4,70% 4,60% 87 87,47 3,77% 3,47% 2,93% 2,87% 84 2,20% 81 0,67% 78 78,1 75
  • 25. Valuation: P/E below average; but are we already in a recovery phase? Price/Earnings ratio UBS
  • 26. Time to step in? Or… have I seen this before? 1450 1400 1379,32 1350 1300 1257,6 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 1257,6 S&P500 in 2012 S&P500 in 2011
  • 27. Asset allocationLong Term Positive but still conservative due to market risks Corporate Bonds (name selection) Emerging Markets Equities US Equities Emerging Markets Currencies Commodities European Equities Sovereign Debt from peripheral Countries in Europe (Spain, Italy, 10 years)
  • 28. Contatos :FINCOR – Sociedade Corretora, SARua Castilho N.44, 4º Piso1250-071 Lisboa, PortugalTel. +351 21 382 40 10Fax.+351 21 380 30 49fincor@fincor.ptwww.fincor.pthttp://fincorcorretora.blogspot.pt/