Data Versus Hunch. Beyond Meets Hyper Island. Turning Data into Creative Value

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Going it alone will get you there faster but going together will always take you further.

This has never been truer than when thinking about the relationship between data and creativity. Get the balance right and you will always develop stronger ideas.

Falling out is all part of the fun as long as you kiss and make up.

Our Charlie Lyons and Nils Mork-Ulnes delivered this slide set as part of a Beyond / Hyper Island seminar on data and creativity.

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Data Versus Hunch. Beyond Meets Hyper Island. Turning Data into Creative Value

  1. 1. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential Thinking big while thinking real.. A Beyond presentation by Charlie Lyons and Nils Mork-Ulnes July 2013 data vs hunch
  2. 2. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential Works between analysts and creatives. Generally a bit crazy....probably as a result of working with the afore mentioned teams.... who the hell are we? Let’s introduce ourselves ! King of Data! Leads the analytics team into a bright future. If you ever need a restaurant tip he is your man.... Charlie Lyons Director Nils Mork-Ulnes Head of Analytics Creative Junkie
  3. 3. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential WHAT IS BEYOND?How did we form, what do we do and who do we work with?
  4. 4. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential CREDENTIALS?
  5. 5. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential INSIGHT TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL LESS FINANCIAL RISK, MORE CREATIVE PRECISION, AWESOME RESULTS
  6. 6. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential WE drive brand engagement through the CREATIVE applicationof content & technology
  7. 7. © Copyright 2012 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential LONDON BAY AREA NEW YORK Our clients drive the social web ... and harness it
  8. 8. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential WHAT IS IT REALLY LIKE OUT THERE?The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth....
  9. 9. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential RELATIONSHIPS
  10. 10. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential want it? you get f$cked..
  11. 11. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential me sexy! make
  12. 12. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential want it? youyeah! hell
  13. 13. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential
  14. 14. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential THE LAY OF THE LAND....
  15. 15. © Copyright 2012 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential IT USED TO BE REALLY
  16. 16. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential 20 years ago HR Consultants brand HR pr finance operations strategy marketing learning r&D product development sales PR Accountants Management Consultants Branding Agencies Ad Agencies Corporate Training Consultants Sales Consultants Product design & innovation agencies
  17. 17. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential and then the web came along brand HR pr finance operations strategy marketing learning r&D product development sales Brand website Online ads
  18. 18. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential and got useful for more things brand HR pr finance operations strategy marketing learning r&D product development sales Brand website Online ads Social E-commerce SEM “Fun” apps
  19. 19. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential and a few more things brand HR pr finance operations strategy marketing learning r&D product development sales Social analytics Digital supply chains Digital transformation / change management E-Recruiting E-Learning Co-creation Crowdsourcing “Serious” apps Digital product design & testing Digital service design Brand website Online ads Social E-commerce SEM “Fun” apps
  20. 20. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential everybody’s getting into each others’ business Just a few examples... branding PR management consultancies data analytics Design social advertising digital Accenture buying Fjord W+K aces social with Old Spice WCG buying predictive analytics firm WPP buying AKQA PR + data analytics digitalADVertising + ADVertising+social +management consultancies Design
  21. 21. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential ad spend has followed eyeballs... 6% 14% 42% 26% 12% 23% 10% 43% 22% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Print Radio TV Internet Mobile %ofTotalMediaConsumptionTime orAdvertisingSpending Time Spent Ad Spend % of Time Spent in Media vs. % of Advertising Spending, USA 2012 ~$20B+ Opportunity in USA Internet Ad = $37B* Mobile Ad = $4B*
  22. 22. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential the truth
  23. 23. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential From scarcity to abundance of data “WE HAVE PRODUCED MORE DATA IN THE LAST TWO YEARS THAN IN ALL OF HISTORY PRIOR TO THAT” MCKINSEY & CO. 2012
  24. 24. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential THE VALUE OF DATA HAS SHIFTED FROM CREATING IT TO INTERPRETING IT AND BEING THE FIRST TO TAKE ACTION.
  25. 25. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential DATA DESCRIBES THINGS AS THEY ARE... WHICH ISN’T ALWAYS A NEAT STORY
  26. 26. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential explanation an our limited ability to look at Narrative Fallacies - into them.. sequences of facts without weaving —Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan
  27. 27. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding. —Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan
  28. 28. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential ALGORITHMS TEND TO PREDICT NATURE BETTER THAN HUMAN EXPERTS....
  29. 29. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential OF 200 COMPARISONS OF CLINICAL AND STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS ABOUT 60% HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ACCURACY FOR ALGORITHMS OVER HUMAN EXPERTS- THINKING FAST AND SLOW
  30. 30. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential THE PROBLEM WITH
  31. 31. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential when psychology drives behaviour, algorithms fail price = what the market wants to pay book value = what accountants think it’s worth market price to book value - s&p 500 - 1979-2011
  32. 32. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential big data is no panacea With more data, you get more spurious correlations, more false positives, and erroneous answers. if the quantity of information is increasing by 2.5 quintillion bytes per day, the amount of useful information almost certainly isn't. Most of it is just noise, and the noise is increasing faster than the signal. NATE SILVER, AUTHOR OF THE NOISE AND THE SIGNAL
  33. 33. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential HOW DO YOU PLAY IN A WORLD THAT IS WITH DATA BUT RUN BY EMOTIONS? BECOMING OBSESSED
  34. 34. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential KNOW THE LIMITS AND STRENGTHS STRENGTHS OF OPINION AND EMPIRICAL PROOF... ...AND ITERATE TO A SOLUTION THROUGH A DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE TWO
  35. 35. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential PROTECT YOUR CREATIVE IDEAS
  36. 36. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential WHAT ARE CLIENTS LIKE? REALLY
  37. 37. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential CONFUSED!
  38. 38. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential M.O.A.S
  39. 39. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential MOON.ON.A.STICK
  40. 40. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential MOAS?
  41. 41. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential USE DATA HERE
  42. 42. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential REDUX YOUR BRIEFS
  43. 43. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential WHITE SPACES
  44. 44. © Copyright 2012 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential Turning Unstructured data into customer insights who influences them? where Do they spend their time? What drives consideration? What drives brand Preference & emotional connections? ?
  45. 45. © Copyright 2012 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential are there White space opportunities for content? what do they search for? what are they talking about? what content will they share? Using social data for customer-centric digital strategies
  46. 46. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential Most conversations aren’t about your brand 0.5% 0.5% 99% You and your competitors Their needs Brand A Brand B
  47. 47. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential Zeitgeist/Cultural Tensions Brand Proposition Ideas that connect Use data to Locate common ground Data (search, social) can help you to create a strategy for how the brand proposition best connects with stakeholders, in ways that make it relevant to them. The common ground serves as the blueprint for how the brand can tell its story in a relevant way - based on data-led insights from search and social patterns (conversations/ queries). Provides creative insight and ensures the plan matches the market wants/needs. (HUNCH) (Data)
  48. 48. © Copyright 2012 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential© Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential How do you interchange between data and creativity? DATA VS HUNCH?
  49. 49. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential HOW DO YOU PLAY IN A WORLD THAT IS WITH DATA BUT RUN BY EMOTIONS? BECOMING OBSESSED
  50. 50. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential i’m gonna send to me to outta space...
  51. 51. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential this data is powerful man,
  52. 52. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential so creative I am right now!
  53. 53. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential blowing my this is mind!!
  54. 54. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential shiitttt!!!
  55. 55. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential Phew...... I love my data! forgot where I was! I was having so much fun i
  56. 56. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER..Short recap on some of these fabulous thoughts...
  57. 57. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential IS YOUR FRIEND..
  58. 58. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential ..BUT ALSO TRUST YOUR GUT!
  59. 59. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential Data Hunch
  60. 60. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential badass! i’m a hunchy data
  61. 61. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential THANK YOU timefor your THANK YOU timefor your Nils Mork-Ulnes Head of Analytics +44 (0)2079 086556 +44 (0)7713 077994 nils@bynd.com Charlie Lyons Director +44 (0)2079 086565 +44(0) 7540 686704 charlie@bynd.com

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