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Big Lies and Small Truths, Tales From An Accidental Data Scientist
 

Big Lies and Small Truths, Tales From An Accidental Data Scientist

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We have reached a stage in the evolution of Big Data where collecting and accessing tremendous amounts of data has moved from challenging to mundane. The next challenge will be in turning these ...

We have reached a stage in the evolution of Big Data where collecting and accessing tremendous amounts of data has moved from challenging to mundane. The next challenge will be in turning these storehouses into analytical work horses for businesses in a variety of marketplaces.

In this talk, Dr. John Feland will describe the lessons he learned from deployments of predictive analytics in Digital Marketing and the Internet of Things. John will also share how he accidentally founded a Big Data company, what he has learned along the way to separate the hype from the useful, and where he postulates that Big Data could take us.

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  • Big Lies and Small Truths: Tales from the Accidental Big Data Scientist Speaker: John Feland, Ph.D., Argus InsightsWe have reached a stage in the evolution of Big Data where collecting and accessing tremendous amounts of data has moved from challenging to mundane. The next challenge will be in turning these storehouses into analytical work horses for businesses in a variety of marketplaces.In this talk, Dr. John Feland will describe the lessons he learned from deployments of predictive analytics in Digital Marketing and the Internet of Things. John will also share how he accidentally founded a Big Data company, what he has learned along the way to separate the hype from the useful, and where he postulates that Big Data could take us.John Feland, Ph.D., is the founder and CEO of Argus Insights, a leader in Experience Analytics that was started in 2009 to answer the question "How can traditional market research be improved and help drive innovation instead of validation?"John has taught Design and Innovation at Stanford University, and he led the team that created the first working Multi-Touch Smartphone prototype six months before the iPhone was announced. Driven by his deep experience in the Consumer Electronics value chain and human center design, John has built an enterprise focused on helping clients uncover unfair methods of competing by delighting customers.
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  • Depends on the goalPrototype FirstAnything done well with Hadoop can be done poorly and cheaply by something else
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  • iPhone, Nokia logosQuotes from industry pundits about iPhone
  • Social sampling shows Lipstick brand conversations occupy less than 1% of consumer lipstick mentionsOut of brand social analysis can reveal emerging trends, influencers, and new competitors
  • 10% of total mentionsFilters constructed to focus not on brands, shows, movies but pure mentions of vampires and zombiesVampires 476596 tweetsZombies 715615 tweets
  • 1897 Dracula2009 P,P and ZTwilight 2005

Big Lies and Small Truths, Tales From An Accidental Data Scientist Big Lies and Small Truths, Tales From An Accidental Data Scientist Presentation Transcript

  • Big Lies and Small Truths Tales from an Accidental Big Data Scientist
  • What Marketing Wants Share of mind leads share of market
  • What IT Perceives Share of mind leads share of market
  • What Consumers Fear Share of mind leads share of market
  • Big Data Process In a Nutshell COLLECT ANALYZE REPORT © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute TAKE ACTION Page 5
  • Where is the Data From? • Owned • Purchased • Created © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 6
  • What Is The Data About? People © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 7
  • What is the Data About? Things © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 8
  • at Is The Data About? Things About People Share of mind leads share of market
  • Big Lie #1 “It will take millions of dollars and a huge Hadoop cluster to prove the utility of BIG DATA” © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 10
  • Start Small and Scale As Needed… 1 2 0 -10 -20 -30 Phrase.Count 500 SIP.MLE -40 1000 3 1500 4 2000 0 2500 3000 -10 -20 -30 -40 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 AvgAI © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 11
  • Big Lie #2 “Once we have the data actionable insights will start raining from the sky” © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 12
  • Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 13
  • Need Technologist and Subject Matter Experts Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 14
  • Big Lie #3 “Petabytes of data Plus statistical significance values of 0.00001 equals respect in the board room” Or “If you process it, they will come” © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 15
  • Small Truth #3 • Report in the language of the decision maker • Empathy in report is critical to enable action © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 16
  • Big Lie #4 “If we measure everything we will be measuring the right things” © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 17
  • “Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark on the industry” Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg “The iPhone is a niche product” Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008 “The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure or challenges of the mobile industry” Charles Golvin – Forrester Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute © 2013 Argus Research Page 18
  • “If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.” Lord Kelvin © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 19
  • Others predict based on what consumers bought, Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love 7000 Argus Insights 60 Estimate Based Apple’s Actual Q2 iPhone Unit Volume 6000 50 5000 40 4000 30 3000 Morgan Stanley 20 2000 1000 10 Consensus 0 0 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 Copyright© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Apple iPhone 4 Apple iPhone 4S Apple iPhone 5 Apple iPhone 3GS Apple iPhone 3G Millions of iPhones; Billions of dollars in Revenue Buzz Volume for iPhone Models Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for Q2 2013 iPhone Sales Apple iPhone Quarterly iPhone Sales © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 20
  • Digital Advocacy over Digital Impressions • Digital Impression metrics are limited by accuracy and availability – Simply adding up all the followers/fans does not capture – Much of Facebook advocacy actions are hidden from brands Extro Intro • Digital Advocacy metrics are better predictors of Enterprise Consumer B2E C2C market performance • Digital Advocacy can be separated by type to measure market C2B B2B response to Brand B2C initiatives and campaigns “#LOrealUSA Talent Recruitment will host our first ever DC Information Session with students” “At Carnegie Hall for the glamourmag #WomenOfTheYear Awards #glamourwoty sponsored © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute by lorealparis” “My mascara came out so beautiful today I LOVE MAYBELLINE” “@LOrealParisUSA I've been using these two products for four days and I can already tell a difference in my skin” “Congrats to @michellephan on her new makeup launch!!! #EM #L'OrealLuxe cerminaraerin @ L'Oreal USA HQ“ Page 21
  • Results of iPhone 5S and 5C launch AKA “We miss Steve!” © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 22
  • Samsung and Apple Consumers Held Their Breath Before the iPhone Launch 1 0.68 Apple 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 14 19 24 29 34 Week Number 1 0.63 Samsung 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 14 19 24 29 34 Week Number © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 23
  • Other Handset Customers Barely Skipped A Beat HTC 1 0.55 0.5 0 14 19 24 29 34 LG 1 0.5 0.43 0 Motorola 14 24 29 34 1 0.55 0.5 0 14 Nokia 19 19 24 29 34 1 0.5 0.51 0 14 19 24 29 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute 34 Page 24
  • Less surprises equals less buzz © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 25
  • iPhone 5C is the Worst Launch in Apple’s History © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 26
  • What Are They Really Talking About?
  • Lots of chatter but few conversations “Dear axe body spray, please out a suggested serving size on your bottle. Sincerely, choking girls everywhere.” Nothing says “I love you” like a man’s armpit wearing Old Spice inside of a tuxedo on a battleship that has a mariachi band to serenade you. © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 28
  • Behavior over Buzz • Brand Story • Product Reality – Traditional media – Digital media – Digital Advocacy – Mostly shared in consumer reviews – Proven leading indicator of sales performanc © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 29
  • When Consumers engage reveals how to engage… Lipstick Mentions By Valid Consumers (Normalized to EST) Consumer Tweets from Dallas, NYC, and San Jose 300 Which What to 250 What I saw! 200 What to 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 • Different segments of consumers engage at different times of the day • Each segment has unique influences that shape advocacy © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 30
  • Behaviors Swamp Brands, Consumers Drive Content Social Mentions from 27 Nov - 2 Dec 2013 Comparing Lipstick Mention vs. Brand Social Mentions 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 General Lipstick Mentions Occur 100 times more than any major brand 10000 0 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 31
  • VS © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 32
  • Humankind has been fascinated for centuries! © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 33
  • Tracking Target Segments since Oct 2012 in Twitter Walking Dead Premiere Zombies Zombie Chatter is steadily 2X that of Vampiremention vampires are gender balanced. Twice as many women Chatter Vampire Diaries Premiere © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 34
  • Somewhere in suburban Georgia © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 35
  • Introducing the Zompire Index • Needed a way to track the both targets • Normalized for state populations to understand relative strength of segment • Since one target is larger than the other needed a way to balance © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 36
  • Visualizing the Balance of Power across Target Segments © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 37
  • More recently…. © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 38
  • Tech Industry Drives Social Buzz © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 39
  • Lenovo Buying a Challenged Brand © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 40
  • © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 41
  • © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 42
  • So What About Social Media, What Do Consumers Say? 1 0 8/14/2013 10/3/2013 11/22/2013 1/11/2014 1 Motorola 0.35 38.00 3/2/2014 0.5 Apple 0.79 319.00 0 8/14/2013 10/3/2013 11/22/2013 1/11/2014 3/2/2014 1 0 8/14/2013 10/3/2013 11/22/2013 1/11/2014 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Samsung 0.63 222.00 3/2/2014 Page 43
  • Please contact us if you’d like to know more! http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights 1-877-992-7487 sales@argusinsights.com