Apple Earnings Preview
How Consumer Smartphone
Demand Is Shaping Up Globally
Dr. John Feland, CEO
Page 2© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
(Really) Brief Intro to Argus Insights
COLLECT REPORTANA...
Page 3© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Does Listening to Consumers Actually Work?
0.00%
5.00%
1...
Page 4© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Does Listening to Consumers Actually Work?
0.00%
5.00%
1...
But What About This Past Quarter?
Page 6© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Reviewing Q1 Shows Recovery from Slow Q4
Apple
BlackBerr...
Page 7© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
During Q1 Apple, Motorola and Xiaomi Made Gains At The
E...
Page 8© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Q2 Shows An Overall Increase over Q1 and Q2 2013
Apple
B...
Page 9© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Q2 Sees Samsung and HTC with Big Gains over Q1
Apple
Bla...
Page 10© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Breaking out Q2Q Changes by Retailer Explains Dynamics
...
Page 11© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Samsung Posted Impressive Gains During Q2, Thanks to Ve...
Page 12© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Apple is Beating Samsung in China but losing to Xiaomi
...
Page 13© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Interest In Iphone 5S Falling Faster Than Other Handset...
Page 14© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Iphone 5S Losing Out To Cheaper Iphone 4S In China
Qtr3...
Page 15© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
At The Same Time Galaxy S5 Is Having Best Launch Since ...
Page 16© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Note 3 and new S5 are Boosting Samsung in China
Samsung...
Page 17© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
In Last 20 Weeks, Apple Losing to Xiaomi and Falling Fa...
Page 18© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
What is driving interest in flagship handsets?
• iPhone...
Page 19© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
What does this mean for Apples Q3?
Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2...
Page 20© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000...
Page 21© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Key Takeaways
• Apple will beat expectations for FY Q3 ...
Please contact us if you’d like to know more!
http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights
1-877-992-7487 sales@ar...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Prediction of Apple's Q3 iPhone sales and trends guiding Q4, see how Apple is winning and losing hearts and minds in China, US, and Europe

513
-1

Published on

See the latest analysis from Argus Insights on Apple iPhone sales performance. Leverage consumer insights from around the world, this presentation shows how Apple is faring against Xiaomi in China, Samsung in the US and against themselves globally.
We saw robust demand in the US, Europe and China for Apple iPhones, with sell-through in Q3 on par or above that of Q1, the holiday season. Apple continues to do well against Samsung in China but we are seeing some softness in the US market where Samsung demand went up while Apple's dropped, but lower than expected. Consumer interest in the iPhone 5S has slowed in both the US and China. It is most disturbing in China where we see interest in the iPhone 4S exceed that of the 5S and 5C. Interest fell in the 5C at a lower rate in the US. So while Argus believes Apple will outperform Q3 2013, seeing the rapid drop in interest for the flagship iPhone 5S so far ahead of their next product launch signals a rough Q4 for iPhone sales.

Published in: Economy & Finance
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
513
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
5
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Prediction of Apple's Q3 iPhone sales and trends guiding Q4, see how Apple is winning and losing hearts and minds in China, US, and Europe

  1. 1. Apple Earnings Preview How Consumer Smartphone Demand Is Shaping Up Globally Dr. John Feland, CEO
  2. 2. Page 2© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute (Really) Brief Intro to Argus Insights COLLECT REPORTANALYZ E TAKE ACTION 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 MillionsofiPhones;BillionsofdollarsinRevenue BuzzVolumeforiPhoneModels Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for Q2 2013 iPhone Sales Copyright© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Consensus Morgan Stanley Argus Insights Estimate Based onApple’s Actual Q2 iPhone Unit Volume • Mobile Phones • Home Automation • Consumer Electronics • Wearables • Appliances, Large and Small • Consumer Services • CPG and more!
  3. 3. Page 3© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Does Listening to Consumers Actually Work? 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 2013 2014 IndexedBuzzVolume Chinese iPhone Consumer Buzz iPhone 4 iPhone 4S iPhone 5 iPhone 5C iPhone 5s 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 2013 2014 US, UK, CA iPhone Consumer Buzz iPhone 4 iPhone 4S iPhone 5 iPhone 5C iPhone 5S
  4. 4. Page 4© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Does Listening to Consumers Actually Work? 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 2013 2014 IndexedBuzzVolume Chinese iPhone Consumer Buzz iPhone 4 iPhone 4S iPhone 5 iPhone 5C iPhone 5s 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 2013 2014 US, UK, CA iPhone Consumer Buzz iPhone 4 iPhone 4S iPhone 5 iPhone 5C iPhone 5S Apple Guides Towards Lower Revenue for Q1 Apple’s Q1 Breaks Sales Records GloballyArgus Insights knew Q1 was going to be huge APPL jumps 14% within days
  5. 5. But What About This Past Quarter?
  6. 6. Page 6© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Reviewing Q1 Shows Recovery from Slow Q4 Apple BlackBerry HTC LG Motorola Nokia Samsung Xiaomi Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 2013 2014 Consumer Mindshare of Global Mobile Brands
  7. 7. Page 7© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute During Q1 Apple, Motorola and Xiaomi Made Gains At The Expense of Samsung, HTC and BlackBerry Apple BlackBerry HTC LG Motorola Nokia Samsung Xiaomi 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 2013 2014 Consumer Mindshare of Global Mobile Brands
  8. 8. Page 8© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Q2 Shows An Overall Increase over Q1 and Q2 2013 Apple BlackBerry HTC LG Motorola Nokia Samsung Xiaomi Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2013 2014 Consumer Mindshare of Global Mobile Brands
  9. 9. Page 9© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Q2 Sees Samsung and HTC with Big Gains over Q1 Apple BlackBerry HTC LG Motorola Nokia Samsung Xiaomi 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2013 2014 Consumer Mindshare of Global Mobile Brands
  10. 10. Page 10© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Breaking out Q2Q Changes by Retailer Explains Dynamics • Verizon Posted Impressive gains with small impact to delight • AT&T and Tmobile both had significant boosts over Q1, showing impact of aggressive promotions • Sprint continues to lose both favor and interest • Canadian carriers driving customers away • China Unicom remained mostly flat • Overall Market is trending down in Delight but up in Buzz over Q1 • BestBuy losing mindshare while Amazon and Walmart are gaining Verizon TMobile Sprint Rogers ChinaUnicom BoostMobile BestBuy BellCA ATT Amazon Amazonde VodafoneUK Walmart Overall Market ConsumerDelight Consumer Buzz (Log Scale) Retailers and Carriers (Q1 to Q2 2014) Verizon TMobile Sprint Rogers ChinaUnicom BoostMobile BestBuy BellCA ATT Amazon Amazonde VodafoneUK Walmart Overall Market
  11. 11. Page 11© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Samsung Posted Impressive Gains During Q2, Thanks to Verizon Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2011 2012 2013 2014 US, UK and CA Smartphone Consumer Interest Apple Samsung
  12. 12. Page 12© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Apple is Beating Samsung in China but losing to Xiaomi Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2012 2013 2014 Chinese Smartphone Consumer Interest Apple Samsung Xiaomi
  13. 13. Page 13© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Interest In Iphone 5S Falling Faster Than Other Handsets Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2011 2012 2013 2014 Apple Consumer Interest By Handset in US, UK, and CA Apple iPhone 3GS Apple iPhone 4 Apple iPhone 4S Apple iPhone 5 Apple iPhone 5C Apple iPhone 5S
  14. 14. Page 14© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Iphone 5S Losing Out To Cheaper Iphone 4S In China Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2012 2013 2014 Apple Consumer Interest By Handset in China Apple iPhone 4 Apple iPhone 4S Apple iPhone 5 Apple iPhone 5C Apple iPhone 5S
  15. 15. Page 15© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute At The Same Time Galaxy S5 Is Having Best Launch Since S3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2011 2012 2013 2014 Samsung Consumer Interest by Handset in US, UK, and CA Samsung Galaxy Note Samsung Galaxy Note 2 Samsung Galaxy Note 3 Samsung Galaxy S2 Samsung Galaxy S3 Samsung Galaxy S3 Mini Samsung Galaxy S4 Samsung Galaxy S4 Mini Samsung Galaxy S5 Samsung Galaxy S5 Active Samsung Galaxy Note 3 Neo
  16. 16. Page 16© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Note 3 and new S5 are Boosting Samsung in China Samsung Galaxy S5 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2012 2013 2014 Samsung Consumer Interest by Handset in China Samsung Galaxy Note 2 Samsung Galaxy Note 3 Samsung Galaxy S3 Samsung Galaxy S4 Samsung Galaxy S5
  17. 17. Page 17© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute In Last 20 Weeks, Apple Losing to Xiaomi and Falling Faster than Samsung 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 ConsumerDelight(-1to1) Buzz and Delight for Major Smartphone Brands Samsung Apple Xiaomi
  18. 18. Page 18© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute What is driving interest in flagship handsets? • iPhone users, numb to poor battery life, discuss it less than other brands. • HTC One M8 customers rave about the camera quality • LG G2 customers are most excited about their screens • Galaxy S5 finishes in the middle of the pack all around
  19. 19. Page 19© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute What does this mean for Apples Q3? Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Year over Year Delta in Consumer Demand Rest of World China
  20. 20. Page 20© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute 0 10000000 20000000 30000000 40000000 50000000 60000000 QuarterlyiPhoneUnitVolumes Predicted Vs Actual iPhone Shipments Argus Insights Unit Sales Morgan Stanley Wall Street Concensus Apple’s Q3 Will Be Great but Q4 Needs Help Adjusted R2: 81% P-value: 0.026 Estimated sales above 40 mil
  21. 21. Page 21© 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Key Takeaways • Apple will beat expectations for FY Q3 2014 • Apple Likely to guide lower for Q4 • iPhone 5S interest is falling faster than any prior Apple handset • Samsung made significant gains against Apple during CY Q2 in US and Europe • Xiaomi exceed Apple at China Unicom, coupled with iPhone 4S in higher demand than 5S signals weakening demand in China for iPhone • iPhone 6 has to do more than 5S to refresh the brand as experience gap narrows to millimeters
  22. 22. Please contact us if you’d like to know more! http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights 1-877-992-7487 sales@argusinsights.com

×