Professor Sir David King at the Bristol Festival Of Ideas

THE HOT TOPIC 29 January 2008 Professor Sir David King Director, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment

THE EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE Source: Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (July 2003) [figure 3.1]

THE EARTH’S ENERGY BUDGET Source: NASA

Source: Fedorov et al, Science 312 (2006) 1485 385ppm (2007) OBSERVED GLOBAL TEMPERATURES

SIMULATED GLOBAL WARMING Source: Hadley Centre

EUROPEAN TEMPERATURES 1900-2100 Source: Hadley Centre

CLIMATE SENSITIVITY Source: Hadley Centre

PREDICTED TEMPERATURE CONTROL Source: IPCC fourth assessment report

MELTING OF GREENLAND ICE SHEET Source: Chen, J.L et al, Science Vol 313, pp1958-1960 (2006)

OBSERVED GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE These data, from a satellite launched in 1992, show the rise in global average sea level over the last decade Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004

ARCTIC SEA ICE - EXTENT, 2007

Increased access to resources e.g. oil, gas, fishing reserves

Opening up of arctic sea ice lanes

Yet, lack of agreement over territorial claims

Source: National Snow and Ice Date Centre, 2007

INCREASE IN RAIN FROM GLOBAL WARMING Year % Anomaly Tropic C Source: Wentz, F.J et al, Science 317 233, 2007

ANNUAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE FLOODED Source: IPCC

POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE UK BY 2080

ADAPT AND MITIGATE

We must adapt in preparation for the significant changes ahead and manage the risks country by country.

We have to actively mitigate against the production of greenhouse gases by:

Switching to low carbon energy sources

Energy efficiency

Developing new technologies

Emissions of CO 2 from burning fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950 Source: WRI CAIT GT Co2 BURNING OF FOSSIL-FUELS

FUTURE WORLD ENERGY DEMAND Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2005

Source: Defra THE RISE IN EMISSIONS TO 2100

DELAYING MITIGATION WILL BE COSTLY Stabilising below 450ppm would require emissions to peak by 2010 with 6-10% p.a. decline thereafter If emissions peak in 2020, we can stabilise below 550ppm if we achieve annual declines of 1 – 2.5% afterwards. A 10 year delay almost doubles the annual rate of decline required Source: Stern Review

GLOBAL DIMENSIONS OF THE MITIGATION PROBLEM Source: Carbon Trust Source: IPCC 4AR

GDP AND EMISSIONS Source: Defra e-Digest of Environmental Statistics

TAKING GLOBAL ACTION

1988 - IPCC

1992 - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

1997 - Kyoto

2003 - UK Government’s 60% target

2005 - Emissions trading

2005 - G8+5 Dialogue started

2006 - UNFCCC COP 12, Nairobi

2007 - IPCC

2007 - EU agree to cut CO2 emissions by 20% by 2020

2007 - UNFCCC COP 13 Bali

2009 - New Global agreement?

THE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTE

In a business as usual scenario, most of the $20 trillion energy investment before 2030 would be in carbon-intensive technology Source: WEO, IEA 2006, ENERGY INVESTMENT

THE WEDGES SOLUTION TO UK EMISSIONS UK CO 2 annual production 2007 2025 2050 100 % 0 % 40 % CHP 100% 40% Source: adapted from S.Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, vol205, pp 968-972, 13 August 2004 Renewables Energy efficiency Nuclear CCS Transport Decentralised energy and micro generation Further developments

STO-STV080-20070116-A1-PD-Synthesis 2030 0 1 24 25 2 27 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 10 20 30 40 -10 -100 -110 -120 -130 -140 -150 -160 26 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 20 21 22 23 -20 Cost of abatement EUR/tCO 2 e Insulation improvements Fuel efficient commercial vehicles Lighting systems Air Conditioning Water heating Fuel efficient vehicles Sugarcane biofuel Nuclear Livestock/ soils Forestation Industrial non-CO 2 CCS EOR; New coal Industrial feedstock substitution Wind; low pen. Forestation Cellulose ethanol CCS; new coal Soil Avoided deforestation America Industrial motor systems Coal-to- gas shift CCS; coal retrofit Waste Industrial CCS Abatement GtCO 2 e/year Avoid deforestation Asia Stand-by losses Co-firing biomass Smart transit Small hydro Industrial non-CO 2 Airplane efficiency Solar

~27 Gton CO 2 e below 40 EUR/ton (-46% vs. BAU)

~7 Gton of negative and zero cost opportunities

Fragmentation of opportunities

Source: Enkvist et al, The McKinsey Quarterly, 2007, No.1 GLOBAL COST CURVE OF GHG ABATEMENT

Market opportunities in the order of at least $500 billion globally by 2050, if the world responds to climate change on the scale required

Global market for environmental goods and services projected to grow from $548bn in 2004 to $800bn by 2015

EU Emissions Trading Scheme: from a standing start in 2005 London is today the leading centre for carbon trading, with a market worth over £9bn

SCALE OF OPPORTUNITIES Source: IEA

WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A GLOBAL AGREEMENT?

Global stabilisation level agreed

Agreed national targets

Carbon trading

Technology transfer and adaptation strategy for developing countries

Bali Road Map is a start!

Demand from business 21 st century environmental challenges THE SMITH SCHOOL OF ENTERPRISE AND THE ENVIRONMENT Demand from academics and students Demand from governments NEED FOR A NEW APPROACH Source: The Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford

THE SMITH SCHOOL OF ENTERPRISE AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Produce world-class research generating new body of knowledge on environmental issues at intersection of business, government and academe

Enable and inform active dialogue with senior opinion-formers

Create global community of influencers with thorough understanding of latest thinking in this vital area

Working Draft - Last Modified 30/09/2007 23:49:57 Printed 7/3/2007 10:40:19 AM Source: The Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford Unit of measure * Footnote Source: Source

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