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Final Project(3)

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Production Planning, Forecasting, Capacity Planning, Visual Basic. Final Project for an Operations Management Class

Production Planning, Forecasting, Capacity Planning, Visual Basic. Final Project for an Operations Management Class

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Final Project(3) Document Transcript

  • 1. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---SYNOPSIS--- Herbalife is a relatively new company that produce vitamins for specialty retail stores such as GNC. C they are experiencing difficulties with their operatio department. We have found a solution to these pro through forecasting, capacity planning, and produc planning. CommandButton1
  • 2. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---SYNOPSIS--- tively new company that produces alty retail stores such as GNC. Currently ing difficulties with their operations ave found a solution to these problems g, capacity planning, and production CommandButton1
  • 3. Time Actual Year Month Period Sales Base Trend Seasonal Forecast 3 period MA 2002 1 1 2,000.00 -4,500.00 2 2 3,000.00 -3,500.00 3 3 3,000.00 -3,500.00 2,666.67 4 4 3,000.00 -3,500.00 3,000.00 5 5 4,000.00 -2,500.00 3,333.33 6 6 6,000.00 -500.00 4,333.33 7 7 7,000.00 500.00 5,666.67 8 8 6,000.00 -500.00 6,333.33 9 9 10,000.00 3,500.00 7,666.67 10 10 12,000.00 5,500.00 9,333.33 11 11 14,000.00 7,500.00 12,000.00 12 12 8,000.00 6,500.00 0.00 1,500.00 11,333.33 2003 1 13 3,000.00 6,509.29 9.29 -3,792.21 2,000.00 8,333.33 2 14 4,000.00 6,527.68 18.40 -2,805.36 3,018.57 5,000.00 3 15 3,000.00 6,545.65 17.97 -3,532.62 3,046.08 3,333.33 4 16 5,000.00 6,581.60 35.95 -2,129.46 3,063.62 4,000.00 5 17 5,000.00 6,625.74 44.14 -1,875.42 4,117.55 4,333.33 6 18 8,000.00 6,686.88 61.14 795.33 6,169.89 6,000.00 7 19 3,000.00 6,708.57 21.69 -2,506.69 7,248.02 5,333.33 8 20 8,000.00 6,746.70 38.12 752.59 6,230.27 6,333.33 9 21 12,000.00 6,800.75 54.05 4,713.98 10,284.82 7,666.67 10 22 12,000.00 6,851.50 50.76 5,248.88 12,354.80 10,666.67 11 23 16,000.00 6,917.09 65.59 8,630.86 14,402.26 13,333.33 12 24 10,000.00 6,996.77 79.68 2,573.93 8,482.69 12,666.67 2004 1 25 2,000.00 7,064.53 67.76 -4,701.18 3,284.24 9,333.33 2 26 5,000.00 7,138.53 74.00 -2,328.97 4,326.93 5,666.67 3 27 5,000.00 7,224.79 86.26 -2,598.28 3,679.92 4,000.00 4 28 3,000.00 7,290.80 66.01 -3,673.56 5,181.60 4,333.33 5 29 4,000.00 7,343.05 52.25 -2,923.92 5,481.39 4,000.00 6 30 6,000.00 7,374.96 31.91 -755.17 8,190.63 4,333.33 7 31 7,000.00 7,426.37 51.41 -1,020.47 4,900.19 5,666.67 8 32 10,000.00 7,494.21 67.84 2,005.11 8,230.37 7,666.67 9 33 15,000.00 7,587.34 93.13 6,641.97 12,276.02 10,666.67 10 34 15,000.00 7,699.69 112.36 6,714.46 12,929.35 13,333.33 11 35 18,000.00 7,826.51 126.81 9,732.94 16,442.91 16,000.00 12 36 8,000.00 7,929.86 103.35 785.18 10,527.26 13,666.67 2005 1 37 5,000.00 8,048.69 118.84 -3,520.61 3,332.03 10,333.33 2 38 4,000.00 8,150.46 101.76 -3,630.28 5,838.56 5,666.67 3 39 4,000.00 8,236.87 86.41 -3,768.92 5,653.94 4,333.33 4 40 2,000.00 8,298.67 61.81 -5,548.99 4,649.71 3,333.33 5 41 5,000.00 8,356.42 57.75 -3,232.91 5,436.55 3,666.67 6 42 7,000.00 8,408.06 51.63 -1,221.60 7,659.01 4,666.67 7 43 10,000.00 8,483.47 75.41 792.02 7,439.22 7,333.33 8 44 14,000.00 8,590.78 107.31 4,437.07 10,563.99 10,333.33 9 45 16,000.00 8,704.22 113.44 7,109.06 15,340.06 13,333.33 10 46 16,000.00 8,822.01 117.79 7,045.62 15,532.12 15,333.33 11 47 20,000.00 8,952.12 130.11 10,672.36 18,672.74 17,333.33 12 48 12,000.00 9,102.03 149.91 2,294.60 9,867.40 16,000.00 2006 1 49 5,000.00 9,245.15 143.12 -4,038.23 5,731.32 12,333.33 2 50 2,000.00 9,353.37 108.23 -6,290.13 5,757.99 6,333.33 3 51 3,000.00 9,436.60 83.23 -5,674.76 5,692.68 3,333.33
  • 4. 4 52 2,000.00 9,501.52 64.93 -6,943.92 3,970.83 2,333.33 5 53 7,000.00 9,572.64 71.11 -2,761.20 6,333.54 4,000.00 6 54 6,000.00 9,621.26 48.62 -2,935.97 8,422.15 5,000.00 7 55 8,000.00 9,647.03 25.77 -950.48 10,461.90 7,000.00 8 56 10,000.00 9,634.63 -12.40 1,528.17 14,109.86 8,000.00 9 57 20,000.00 9,652.59 17.95 9,422.60 16,731.30 12,666.67 10 58 20,000.00 9,701.03 48.45 9,369.87 16,716.16 16,666.67 11 59 22,000.00 9,764.13 63.10 11,789.36 20,421.84 20,666.67 12 60 8,000.00 9,788.96 24.83 -622.77 12,121.83 16,666.67 2007 1 61 5,775.55 2 62 3,548.48 3 63 4,188.68 4 64 2,944.35 5 65 7,151.90 6 66 7,001.96 7 67 9,012.27 8 68 11,515.75 9 69 19,435.01 10 70 19,407.11 11 71 21,851.42 12 72 9,464.11
  • 5. Alpha 0.01 Beta 1 Gamma 0.71 -Our data not only contains an upward and downward trends, but it also exhibit effects. Looking over the past sales data it is clear that the seasonal trend is ind will happen in the future, therefore we want to take those factors into account w MSE 4,593,240.09 We have chosen to use the holt-winter forecast model as fulfills the objectives w SQRT 2143.18 Sales vs. Forecast 22,500.00 17,500.00 12,500.00 Amount Actual Sales 7,500.00 Forecast 2,500.00 Forecast Row 3 Row 11 Row 19 Row 27 Actual Sales Row 35 Row 43 Row 51 Row 59 Period Percentage of Each Sku to Produce(2004 Data) Month 101 102 103 104 105 Total Jan 27.47% 18.35% 16.12% 19.32% 18.74% 100.00% Feb 19.90% 20.01% 17.77% 23.05% 19.27% 100.00% Mar 18.75% 17.51% 18.61% 17.19% 27.93% 100.00% Apr 21.88% 17.83% 14.14% 32.35% 13.80% 100.00% May 13.07% 21.28% 17.68% 28.81% 19.17% 100.00% Jun 19.16% 22.17% 17.48% 22.47% 18.72% 100.00% Jul 30.39% 11.83% 15.47% 22.02% 20.28% 100.00% Aug 16.14% 19.10% 13.08% 23.89% 27.79% 100.00% Sep 32.77% 13.24% 16.71% 20.25% 17.03% 100.00% Oct 15.75% 12.72% 12.85% 25.94% 32.74% 100.00% Nov 26.18% 16.53% 16.69% 23.59% 17.01% 100.00% Dec 24.84% 9.96% 14.04% 29.39% 21.78% 100.00% Grand Total 21.78% 17.03% 16.03% 24.21% 20.95% 100.00%
  • 6. Forecasted SKU Units to Produce 101 102 103 104 105 Total 1,586.35 1,059.65 930.93 1,116.01 1,082.61 5,775.55 706.12 710.02 630.66 818.01 683.68 3,548.48 785.58 733.51 779.48 720.08 1,170.03 4,188.68 644.33 524.93 416.38 952.42 406.30 2,944.35 934.67 1,521.76 1,264.55 2,060.19 1,370.72 7,151.90 1,341.68 1,552.53 1,223.72 1,573.54 1,310.49 7,001.96 2,738.64 1,066.21 1,394.58 1,984.85 1,827.98 9,012.27 1,859.13 2,199.77 1,506.62 2,750.56 3,199.67 11,515.75 6,369.03 2,572.84 3,247.58 3,934.93 3,310.64 19,435.01 3,056.00 2,469.01 2,493.21 5,034.83 6,354.06 19,407.11 5,721.31 3,611.22 3,646.62 5,154.84 3,717.43 21,851.42 2,350.54 942.36 1,328.36 2,781.81 2,061.04 9,464.11
  • 7. d downward trends, but it also exhibits seasonal t is clear that the seasonal trend is indicative of what t to take those factors into account when we forecast. ecast model as fulfills the objectives want to complete. Actual Sales Forecast Forecast Actual Sales
  • 8. Date SKU Total 1/1/2004 101 191 1/2/2004 101 260 1/2/2004 103 224 1/2/2004 102 195 Sum of Total SKU 1/3/2004 101 212 Date 101 102 103 104 1/3/2004 101 237 Jan 2280 1523 1338 1604 1/4/2004 104 245 Feb 2171 2183 1939 2515 1/4/2004 102 188 Mar 1931 1803 1916 1770 1/5/2004 104 269 Apr 2493 2031 1611 3685 1/6/2004 105 245 May 1479 2408 2001 3260 1/6/2004 101 171 Jun 1979 2290 1805 2321 1/7/2004 101 269 Jul 2060 802 1049 1493 1/7/2004 105 199 Aug 1097 1298 889 1623 1/7/2004 105 167 Sep 3030 1224 1545 1872 1/9/2004 102 239 Oct 1515 1224 1236 2496 1/9/2004 101 262 Nov 2424 1530 1545 2184 1/9/2004 103 269 Dec 1973 791 1115 2335 1/9/2004 105 205 Grand Total 24432 19107 17989 27158 1/10/2004 102 212 1/10/2004 104 205 1/10/2004 103 222 Percentage of Each Sku to Produce(2004 Data) 1/11/2004 103 208 101 102 103 104 1/12/2004 101 170 Jan 27.47% 18.35% 16.12% 19.32% 1/13/2004 102 253 Feb 19.90% 20.01% 17.77% 23.05% 1/13/2004 104 247 Mar 18.75% 17.51% 18.61% 17.19% 1/13/2004 102 189 Apr 21.88% 17.83% 14.14% 32.35% 1/14/2004 101 181 May 13.07% 21.28% 17.68% 28.81% 1/15/2004 103 238 Jun 19.16% 22.17% 17.48% 22.47% 1/15/2004 105 211 Jul 30.39% 11.83% 15.47% 22.02% 1/15/2004 104 239 Aug 16.14% 19.10% 13.08% 23.89% 1/16/2004 101 167 Sep 32.77% 13.24% 16.71% 20.25% 1/16/2004 104 184 Oct 15.75% 12.72% 12.85% 25.94% 1/16/2004 101 160 Nov 26.18% 16.53% 16.69% 23.59% 1/17/2004 104 215 Dec 24.84% 9.96% 14.04% 29.39% 1/18/2004 103 177 Grand Total 21.78% 17.03% 16.03% 24.21% 1/18/2004 102 247 1/19/2004 105 251 1/19/2004 105 278 -The historical average in percentage form is above. 2/1/2004 104 246 -The steps used for the Pivot Table: 2/4/2004 102 274 2/4/2004 102 257 1. Once the table was created, we grouped the date into months. 2/4/2004 105 187 2. Once the months were grouped, we then changed how the tota 2/4/2004 105 250 we changed it from normal to percentage of row. 2/5/2004 105 269 2/7/2004 102 195 -The amount needed to produce of of the new forecast is below the 2/7/2004 102 239 . 2/9/2004 101 212 2/9/2004 103 258 2/9/2004 104 233 2/9/2004 104 228 2/10/2004 101 173 Forecasted SKU Units to Produce(2007 2/10/2004 103 168 Month 101 102 103 104
  • 9. 2/10/2004 103 249 January 68.39 45.68 40.14 48.11 2/11/2004 101 187 February 50.74 51.02 45.32 58.78 2/11/2004 104 266 March 45.01 42.03 44.66 41.26 2/11/2004 105 268 April 57.99 47.24 37.47 85.72 2/11/2004 104 174 May 26.01 42.34 35.19 57.32 2/11/2004 102 227 June 52.69 60.98 48.06 61.80 2/11/2004 101 248 July 54.70 21.30 27.85 39.64 2/12/2004 102 187 August 38.26 45.27 31.01 56.61 2/12/2004 101 227 September 80.94 32.70 41.27 50.01 2/13/2004 105 164 October 26.93 21.75 21.97 44.36 2/14/2004 101 194 November 44.25 27.93 28.20 39.87 2/14/2004 104 249 December 64.57 25.89 36.49 76.42 2/14/2004 104 255 2/16/2004 103 240 2/19/2004 102 265 2/20/2004 101 199 2/21/2004 101 275 2/21/2004 105 180 2/21/2004 103 237 2/22/2004 105 247 2/22/2004 104 171 2/23/2004 105 169 2/24/2004 101 260 2/24/2004 103 179 2/24/2004 105 160 2/24/2004 101 196 2/24/2004 105 208 2/25/2004 102 163 2/26/2004 103 193 2/26/2004 103 216 2/27/2004 104 211 2/28/2004 104 232 2/28/2004 102 179 2/29/2004 102 197 2/29/2004 104 250 2/29/2004 103 199 3/1/2004 102 182 3/1/2004 101 220 3/1/2004 104 188 3/1/2004 104 247 3/3/2004 105 224 3/3/2004 105 222 3/5/2004 103 165 3/5/2004 105 200 3/6/2004 105 198 3/6/2004 103 262 3/6/2004 103 274 3/9/2004 105 229 3/10/2004 102 275 3/11/2004 105 213 3/11/2004 104 259 3/12/2004 103 278 3/12/2004 105 235
  • 10. 3/12/2004 104 220 3/12/2004 104 267 3/12/2004 101 242 3/14/2004 105 273 3/14/2004 102 185 3/15/2004 102 224 3/16/2004 101 246 3/17/2004 102 235 3/17/2004 101 172 3/19/2004 105 222 3/19/2004 104 161 3/20/2004 103 251 3/21/2004 103 166 3/21/2004 102 235 3/23/2004 104 208 3/23/2004 105 252 3/23/2004 105 250 3/24/2004 101 199 3/25/2004 102 233 3/26/2004 101 172 3/28/2004 103 274 3/28/2004 102 234 3/28/2004 101 231 3/29/2004 101 237 3/29/2004 101 212 3/30/2004 105 165 3/30/2004 104 220 3/30/2004 105 193 3/30/2004 103 246 4/1/2004 102 238 4/2/2004 102 178 4/3/2004 101 201 4/5/2004 102 236 4/6/2004 103 239 4/7/2004 104 264 4/7/2004 105 274 4/7/2004 102 279 4/7/2004 101 225 4/7/2004 104 246 4/9/2004 104 187 4/10/2004 103 266 4/11/2004 104 176 4/12/2004 105 265 4/12/2004 104 214 4/13/2004 101 187 4/13/2004 101 171 4/14/2004 101 260 4/14/2004 104 253 4/15/2004 105 255 4/16/2004 102 185 4/17/2004 103 239 4/17/2004 101 273 4/17/2004 104 219
  • 11. 4/17/2004 101 210 4/18/2004 102 261 4/19/2004 104 189 4/19/2004 101 277 4/21/2004 103 185 4/21/2004 104 202 4/21/2004 105 190 4/21/2004 101 247 4/22/2004 104 264 4/22/2004 103 266 4/23/2004 102 162 4/23/2004 104 235 4/23/2004 101 258 4/24/2004 103 217 4/24/2004 104 190 4/24/2004 104 260 4/24/2004 104 178 4/25/2004 105 194 4/26/2004 104 230 4/26/2004 101 184 4/26/2004 103 199 4/28/2004 102 250 4/29/2004 105 215 4/29/2004 102 242 4/29/2004 105 179 4/29/2004 104 187 4/30/2004 104 191 5/1/2004 104 230 5/2/2004 103 263 5/3/2004 101 251 5/4/2004 104 166 5/5/2004 103 204 5/5/2004 103 222 5/6/2004 101 175 5/6/2004 102 170 5/6/2004 101 211 5/7/2004 102 274 5/8/2004 104 244 5/8/2004 105 172 5/9/2004 104 171 5/10/2004 105 223 5/11/2004 103 191 5/11/2004 105 193 5/11/2004 105 268 5/11/2004 101 228 5/11/2004 104 174 5/13/2004 105 202 5/14/2004 104 261 5/15/2004 102 274 5/15/2004 105 184 5/16/2004 105 252 5/18/2004 104 271 5/19/2004 103 239
  • 12. 5/19/2004 102 188 5/19/2004 101 165 5/19/2004 102 246 5/19/2004 104 233 5/20/2004 104 169 5/20/2004 104 269 5/20/2004 104 216 5/20/2004 102 274 5/21/2004 103 249 5/22/2004 103 210 5/22/2004 103 262 5/23/2004 101 211 5/24/2004 102 180 5/24/2004 102 218 5/25/2004 102 168 5/26/2004 101 238 5/26/2004 104 189 5/26/2004 104 190 5/26/2004 105 225 5/27/2004 105 175 5/28/2004 102 161 5/28/2004 103 161 5/29/2004 104 264 5/30/2004 102 255 5/30/2004 105 275 5/30/2004 104 213 6/1/2004 102 209 6/2/2004 101 170 6/2/2004 103 201 6/3/2004 104 171 6/3/2004 103 241 6/3/2004 101 264 6/3/2004 102 199 6/3/2004 102 214 6/3/2004 102 176 6/5/2004 103 169 6/5/2004 102 198 6/5/2004 105 235 6/5/2004 102 225 6/8/2004 105 179 6/9/2004 105 207 6/9/2004 105 261 6/10/2004 103 233 6/10/2004 101 180 6/12/2004 104 222 6/13/2004 101 257 6/13/2004 104 250 6/13/2004 104 196 6/14/2004 103 170 6/15/2004 104 215 6/17/2004 102 266 6/18/2004 103 175 6/18/2004 102 195
  • 13. 6/19/2004 104 222 6/20/2004 103 179 6/20/2004 102 204 6/21/2004 103 221 6/22/2004 104 160 6/22/2004 101 172 6/22/2004 101 252 6/23/2004 101 181 6/23/2004 101 254 6/24/2004 105 165 6/24/2004 104 240 6/24/2004 104 172 6/25/2004 103 216 6/25/2004 104 231 6/25/2004 105 247 6/25/2004 105 210 6/27/2004 105 168 6/28/2004 102 181 6/28/2004 105 261 6/29/2004 104 242 6/29/2004 102 223 6/30/2004 101 249 7/1/2004 103 176 7/2/2004 102 252 7/3/2004 103 186 7/4/2004 104 228 7/5/2004 101 161 7/6/2004 101 254 7/7/2004 101 263 7/8/2004 101 258 7/9/2004 105 254 7/10/2004 104 251 7/11/2004 104 212 7/12/2004 103 247 7/13/2004 104 236 7/14/2004 105 279 7/15/2004 105 271 7/16/2004 105 184 7/17/2004 102 217 7/18/2004 105 221 7/19/2004 104 204 7/20/2004 102 160 7/21/2004 101 218 7/22/2004 103 248 7/23/2004 102 173 7/24/2004 103 192 7/25/2004 104 160 7/26/2004 101 166 7/27/2004 101 261 7/28/2004 101 251 7/29/2004 101 228 7/30/2004 105 166 7/31/2004 104 202
  • 14. 8/1/2004 104 217 8/2/2004 103 216 8/3/2004 104 226 8/4/2004 105 174 8/5/2004 105 216 8/6/2004 105 198 8/7/2004 102 277 8/8/2004 105 249 8/9/2004 104 188 8/10/2004 102 270 8/11/2004 101 173 8/12/2004 103 207 8/13/2004 102 257 8/14/2004 103 199 8/15/2004 104 207 8/16/2004 101 227 8/17/2004 101 220 8/18/2004 101 268 8/19/2004 101 209 8/20/2004 105 168 8/21/2004 104 161 8/22/2004 104 237 8/23/2004 103 267 8/24/2004 104 187 8/25/2004 105 263 8/26/2004 105 172 8/27/2004 105 242 8/28/2004 102 242 8/29/2004 105 206 8/30/2004 104 200 8/31/2004 102 252 9/1/2004 101 303 9/2/2004 103 309 9/3/2004 102 306 9/4/2004 103 309 9/5/2004 104 312 9/6/2004 101 303 9/7/2004 101 303 9/8/2004 101 303 9/9/2004 101 303 9/10/2004 105 315 9/11/2004 104 312 9/12/2004 104 312 9/13/2004 103 309 9/14/2004 104 312 9/15/2004 105 315 9/16/2004 105 315 9/17/2004 105 315 9/18/2004 102 306 9/19/2004 105 315 9/20/2004 104 312 9/21/2004 102 306 9/22/2004 101 303
  • 15. 9/23/2004 103 309 9/24/2004 102 306 9/25/2004 103 309 9/26/2004 104 312 9/27/2004 101 303 9/28/2004 101 303 9/29/2004 101 303 9/30/2004 101 303 10/1/2004 105 315 10/2/2004 104 312 10/3/2004 104 312 10/4/2004 103 309 10/5/2004 104 312 10/6/2004 105 315 10/7/2004 105 315 10/8/2004 105 315 10/9/2004 102 306 10/10/2004 105 315 10/11/2004 104 312 10/12/2004 102 306 10/13/2004 101 303 10/14/2004 103 309 10/15/2004 102 306 10/16/2004 103 309 10/17/2004 104 312 10/18/2004 101 303 10/19/2004 101 303 10/20/2004 101 303 10/21/2004 101 303 10/22/2004 105 315 10/23/2004 104 312 10/24/2004 104 312 10/25/2004 103 309 10/26/2004 104 312 10/27/2004 105 315 10/28/2004 105 315 10/29/2004 105 315 10/30/2004 102 306 10/31/2004 105 315 11/1/2004 104 312 11/2/2004 102 306 11/3/2004 101 303 11/4/2004 103 309 11/5/2004 102 306 11/6/2004 103 309 11/7/2004 104 312 11/8/2004 101 303 11/9/2004 101 303 11/10/2004 101 303 11/11/2004 101 303 11/12/2004 105 315 11/13/2004 104 312 11/14/2004 104 312
  • 16. 11/15/2004 103 309 11/16/2004 104 312 11/17/2004 105 315 11/18/2004 105 315 11/19/2004 105 315 11/20/2004 102 306 11/21/2004 105 315 11/22/2004 104 312 11/23/2004 102 306 11/24/2004 101 303 11/25/2004 103 309 11/26/2004 102 306 11/27/2004 103 309 11/28/2004 104 312 11/29/2004 101 303 11/30/2004 101 303 12/1/2004 101 303 12/2/2004 101 303 12/3/2004 105 315 12/4/2004 104 312 12/5/2004 104 312 12/6/2004 103 309 12/7/2004 104 312 12/8/2004 105 315 12/9/2004 105 315 12/10/2004 105 236 12/11/2004 102 216 12/12/2004 105 325 12/13/2004 104 220 12/14/2004 102 319 12/15/2004 101 344 12/16/2004 103 208 12/17/2004 102 256 12/18/2004 103 292 12/19/2004 104 323 12/20/2004 101 202 12/21/2004 101 212 12/22/2004 101 329 12/23/2004 101 280 12/24/2004 105 224 12/25/2004 104 324 12/26/2004 104 205 12/27/2004 103 306 12/28/2004 104 327
  • 17. 105 Grand Total 1556 8301 2102 10910 2876 10296 1572 11392 2169 11317 1933 10328 1375 6779 1888 6795 1575 9246 3150 9621 1575 9258 1730 7944 23501 112187 (2004 Data) Percentage of Sku Unit (2004) 105 Total 25.00% 18.74% 100.00% 19.27% 100.00% 20.00% 27.93% 100.00% 13.80% 100.00% 15.00% 19.17% 100.00% 18.72% 100.00% 10.00% 20.28% 100.00% 27.79% 100.00% 17.03% 100.00% 5.00% 32.74% 100.00% 17.01% 100.00% 0.00% 21.78% 100.00% Column F Column G Column H Column I Column J 20.95% 100.00% Sku Unit form is above. rouped the date into months. e then changed how the total was represented, tage of row. f the new forecast is below the text box to Produce(2007 105 Total
  • 18. 46.67 249.00 49.13 255.00 67.04 240.00 36.57 265.00 38.14 199.00 51.47 275.00 36.51 180.00 65.85 237.00 42.07 247.00 55.99 171.00 28.75 169.00 56.62 260.00
  • 19. Column J
  • 20. Historical Data January February March April May June Initial Inventory 0 2,118 4,236 8,354 11,472 14,145 Production 7,118 7,118 7,118 7,118 8,673 10,253 Demand 5,000 5,000 3,000 4,000 6,000 7,000 Ending Inventory 2,118 4,236 8,354 11,472 14,145 17,398 Safety Stock 285 285 285 285 347 410 Average Inventory 1,059 3,177 6,295 9,913 12,809 15,772 Unit Cost Production $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $4.00 Unit Holding Cost $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 Total Production Cost $35,590.00 $35,590.00 $35,590.00 $35,590.00 $43,365.60 $41,012.00 Holding Cost $2,647.50 $7,942.50 $15,737.50 $24,782.50 $32,021.40 $39,429.05 Total Product $465,906.22 Total Holding $245,947.72 Total Cost $711,853.94
  • 21. July August September October November December 17,398 17,651 12,904 8,157 410 316 10,253 10,253 10,253 10,253 7,906 7,118 10,000 15,000 15,000 18,000 8,000 5,000 17,651 12,904 8,157 410 316 2,434 410 410 410 410 316 285 17,525 15,278 10,531 4,284 363 1,375 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $5.00 $5.00 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $41,012.00 $41,012.00 $41,012.00 $41,012.00 $39,530.63 $35,590.00 $43,811.55 $38,194.05 $26,326.55 $10,709.05 $907.96 $3,438.11
  • 22. Input Information Production Cost <9000 $5.00 Production Cost >9000 $4.00 Holding Cost/Month $2.50 Safety Stock 4% Initial Inventory 0 Minimum Production ### Maximum Production 10253
  • 23. Forecast January February March April May Initial Inventory 0 3,939 10,643 16,707 24,016 Production 9,715 10,253 10,253 10,253 10,253 Demand 5,776 3,548 4,189 2,944 7,152 Ending Inventory 3,939 10,643 16,707 24,016 27,117 Safety Stock 389 410 410 410 410 Average Inventory 1,970 7,291 13,675 20,362 25,566 Unit Cost Production $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 Unit Holding Cost $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 Total Production Cost $38,858.31 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 Holding Cost $4,923.78 $18,227.96 $34,188.51 $50,904.22 $63,915.91 Total Production $486,695.32 Total Holding $521,285.44 Total Cost $1,007,980.76
  • 24. June July August September October November December 27,117 30,368 31,608 30,345 21,163 12,009 410 10,253 10,253 10,253 10,253 10,253 10,253 9,431 7,002 9,012 11,516 19,435 19,407 21,851 9,464 30,368 31,608 30,345 21,163 12,009 410 377 410 410 410 410 410 410 377 28,742 30,988 30,977 25,754 16,586 6,209 394 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $37,725.01 $71,855.60 $77,469.82 $77,441.80 $64,385.36 $41,464.72 $15,523.56 $984.20
  • 25. Input Information Production Cost <9000 $5.00 Production Cost >9000 $4.00 Holding Cost/Month $2.50 Safety Stock 4% Initial Inventory 0 Minimum Production ### Maximum Production 10253
  • 26. Production Schedule January February March April May June Production 9,715 10,253 10,253 10,253 10,253 10,253 Production Cost/unit $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 Total Production Cost $38,858.31 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 Total Production Cost $486,695.32 Total Holding Cost $521,285.44 Total Cost $1,007,980.76 ---Assumptions--- ---Opt The assumptions in the model are: production cost per unit is: $5/unit if The production schedule less than 9,000 units are produced that month and $4/unit if greater than produced in each month 9,000 units are produced in that month. The model also assumes the is optimized through sol holding costs are $2.50/unit based on monthly average inventory, inventory, and prefered s maximum monthly production is 10% less than the maximum capacity in direct correlation to the 2004, and the minimum monthly production is 5% greater then the 2004 minimum capacity.
  • 27. July August September October November December 10,253 10,253 10,253 10,253 10,253 9,431 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $41,011.20 $37,725.01 ---Optimized Production--- The production schedule above shows how many units should be produced in each month in order to minimize total cost. The total cost is optimized through solver, it will change as the demand, initial inventory, and prefered safety stock changes. Those variables have a direct correlation to the total cost.
  • 28. DPCache__xls_Capacity Data Date SKU Total 01/01/04 101 191 01/02/04 101 191 01/02/04 101 260 01/02/04 101 224 01/03/04 101 191 01/03/04 101 191 01/04/04 101 195 01/04/04 101 224 01/05/04 101 195 01/06/04 101 212 01/06/04 101 191 01/07/04 101 191 01/07/04 101 212 01/07/04 101 212 01/09/04 101 224 01/09/04 101 191 01/09/04 101 260 01/09/04 101 212 01/10/04 101 224 01/10/04 101 195 01/10/04 101 260 01/11/04 101 260 01/12/04 101 191 01/13/04 101 224 01/13/04 101 195 01/13/04 101 224 01/14/04 101 191 01/15/04 101 260 01/15/04 101 212 01/15/04 101 195 01/16/04 101 191 01/16/04 101 195 01/16/04 101 191 01/17/04 101 195 01/18/04 101 260 01/18/04 101 224 01/19/04 101 212 01/19/04 101 212 02/01/04 101 195 02/04/04 101 224 02/04/04 101 224 02/04/04 101 212 02/04/04 101 212 02/05/04 101 212 02/07/04 101 224 02/07/04 101 224 02/09/04 101 191 02/09/04 101 260 02/09/04 101 195 02/09/04 101 195 02/10/04 101 191 Page 44
  • 29. DPCache__xls_Capacity Data 02/10/04 101 260 02/10/04 101 260 02/11/04 101 191 02/11/04 101 195 02/11/04 101 212 02/11/04 101 195 02/11/04 101 224 02/11/04 101 191 02/12/04 101 224 02/12/04 101 191 02/13/04 101 212 02/14/04 101 191 02/14/04 101 195 02/14/04 101 195 02/16/04 101 260 02/19/04 101 224 02/20/04 101 191 02/21/04 101 191 02/21/04 101 212 02/21/04 101 260 02/22/04 101 212 02/22/04 101 195 02/23/04 101 212 02/24/04 101 191 02/24/04 101 260 02/24/04 101 212 02/24/04 101 191 02/24/04 101 212 02/25/04 101 224 02/26/04 101 260 02/26/04 101 260 02/27/04 101 195 02/28/04 101 195 02/28/04 101 224 02/29/04 101 224 02/29/04 101 195 02/29/04 101 260 03/01/04 101 224 03/01/04 101 191 03/01/04 101 195 03/01/04 101 195 03/03/04 101 212 03/03/04 101 212 03/05/04 101 260 03/05/04 101 212 03/06/04 101 212 03/06/04 101 260 03/06/04 101 260 03/09/04 101 212 03/10/04 101 224 03/11/04 101 212 03/11/04 101 195 Page 45
  • 30. DPCache__xls_Capacity Data 03/12/04 101 260 03/12/04 101 212 03/12/04 101 195 03/12/04 101 195 03/12/04 101 191 03/14/04 101 212 03/14/04 101 224 03/15/04 101 224 03/16/04 101 191 03/17/04 101 224 03/17/04 101 191 03/19/04 101 212 03/19/04 101 195 03/20/04 101 260 03/21/04 101 260 03/21/04 101 224 03/23/04 101 195 03/23/04 101 212 03/23/04 101 212 03/24/04 101 191 03/25/04 101 224 03/26/04 101 191 03/28/04 101 260 03/28/04 101 224 03/28/04 101 191 03/29/04 101 191 03/29/04 101 191 03/30/04 101 212 03/30/04 101 195 03/30/04 101 212 03/30/04 101 260 04/01/04 101 224 04/02/04 101 224 04/03/04 101 191 04/05/04 101 224 04/06/04 101 260 04/07/04 101 195 04/07/04 101 212 04/07/04 101 224 04/07/04 101 191 04/07/04 101 195 04/09/04 101 195 04/10/04 101 260 04/11/04 101 195 04/12/04 101 212 04/12/04 101 195 04/13/04 101 191 04/13/04 101 191 04/14/04 101 191 04/14/04 101 195 04/15/04 101 212 04/16/04 101 224 Page 46
  • 31. DPCache__xls_Capacity Data 04/17/04 101 260 04/17/04 101 191 04/17/04 101 195 04/17/04 101 191 04/18/04 101 224 04/19/04 101 195 04/19/04 101 191 04/21/04 101 260 04/21/04 101 195 04/21/04 101 212 04/21/04 101 191 04/22/04 101 195 04/22/04 101 260 04/23/04 101 224 04/23/04 101 195 04/23/04 101 191 04/24/04 101 260 04/24/04 101 195 04/24/04 101 195 04/24/04 101 195 04/25/04 101 212 04/26/04 101 195 04/26/04 101 191 04/26/04 101 260 04/28/04 101 224 04/29/04 101 212 04/29/04 101 224 04/29/04 101 212 04/29/04 101 195 04/30/04 101 195 05/01/04 101 195 05/02/04 101 260 05/03/04 101 191 05/04/04 101 195 05/05/04 101 260 05/05/04 101 260 05/06/04 101 191 05/06/04 101 224 05/06/04 101 191 05/07/04 101 224 05/08/04 101 195 05/08/04 101 212 05/09/04 101 195 05/10/04 101 212 05/11/04 101 260 05/11/04 101 212 05/11/04 101 212 05/11/04 101 191 05/11/04 101 195 05/13/04 101 212 05/14/04 101 195 05/15/04 101 224 Page 47
  • 32. DPCache__xls_Capacity Data 05/15/04 101 212 05/16/04 101 212 05/18/04 101 195 05/19/04 101 260 05/19/04 101 224 05/19/04 101 191 05/19/04 101 224 05/19/04 101 195 05/20/04 101 195 05/20/04 101 195 05/20/04 101 195 05/20/04 101 224 05/21/04 101 260 05/22/04 101 260 05/22/04 101 260 05/23/04 101 191 05/24/04 101 224 05/24/04 101 224 05/25/04 101 224 05/26/04 101 191 05/26/04 101 195 05/26/04 101 195 05/26/04 101 212 05/27/04 101 212 05/28/04 101 224 05/28/04 101 260 05/29/04 101 195 05/30/04 101 224 05/30/04 101 212 05/30/04 101 195 06/01/04 101 224 06/02/04 101 191 06/02/04 101 260 06/03/04 101 195 06/03/04 101 260 06/03/04 101 191 06/03/04 101 224 06/03/04 101 224 06/03/04 101 224 06/05/04 101 260 06/05/04 101 224 06/05/04 101 212 06/05/04 101 224 06/08/04 101 212 06/09/04 101 212 06/09/04 101 212 06/10/04 101 260 06/10/04 101 191 06/12/04 101 195 06/13/04 101 191 06/13/04 101 195 06/13/04 101 195 Page 48
  • 33. DPCache__xls_Capacity Data 06/14/04 101 260 06/15/04 101 195 06/17/04 101 224 06/18/04 101 260 06/18/04 101 224 06/19/04 101 195 06/20/04 101 260 06/20/04 101 224 06/21/04 101 260 06/22/04 101 195 06/22/04 101 191 06/22/04 101 191 06/23/04 101 191 06/23/04 101 191 06/24/04 101 212 06/24/04 101 195 06/24/04 101 195 06/25/04 101 260 06/25/04 101 195 06/25/04 101 212 06/25/04 101 212 06/27/04 101 212 06/28/04 101 224 06/28/04 101 212 06/29/04 101 195 06/29/04 101 224 06/30/04 101 191 07/01/04 101 260 07/02/04 101 224 07/03/04 101 260 07/04/04 101 195 07/05/04 101 191 07/06/04 101 191 07/07/04 101 191 07/08/04 101 191 07/09/04 101 212 07/10/04 101 195 07/11/04 101 195 07/12/04 101 260 07/13/04 101 195 07/14/04 101 212 07/15/04 101 212 07/16/04 101 212 07/17/04 101 224 07/18/04 101 212 07/19/04 101 195 07/20/04 101 224 07/21/04 101 191 07/22/04 101 260 07/23/04 101 224 07/24/04 101 260 07/25/04 101 195 Page 49
  • 34. DPCache__xls_Capacity Data 07/26/04 101 191 07/27/04 101 191 07/28/04 101 191 07/29/04 101 191 07/30/04 101 212 07/31/04 101 195 08/01/04 101 195 08/02/04 101 260 08/03/04 101 195 08/04/04 101 212 08/05/04 101 212 08/06/04 101 212 08/07/04 101 224 08/08/04 101 212 08/09/04 101 195 08/10/04 101 224 08/11/04 101 191 08/12/04 101 260 08/13/04 101 224 08/14/04 101 260 08/15/04 101 195 08/16/04 101 191 08/17/04 101 191 08/18/04 101 191 08/19/04 101 191 08/20/04 101 212 08/21/04 101 195 08/22/04 101 195 08/23/04 101 260 08/24/04 101 195 08/25/04 101 212 08/26/04 101 212 08/27/04 101 212 08/28/04 101 224 08/29/04 101 212 08/30/04 101 195 08/31/04 101 224 09/01/04 101 191 09/02/04 101 260 09/03/04 101 224 09/04/04 101 260 09/05/04 101 195 09/06/04 101 191 09/07/04 101 191 09/08/04 101 191 09/09/04 101 191 09/10/04 101 212 09/11/04 101 195 09/12/04 101 195 09/13/04 101 260 09/14/04 101 195 09/15/04 101 212 Page 50
  • 35. DPCache__xls_Capacity Data 09/16/04 101 212 09/17/04 101 212 09/18/04 101 224 09/19/04 101 212 09/20/04 101 195 09/21/04 101 224 09/22/04 101 191 09/23/04 101 260 09/24/04 101 224 09/25/04 101 260 09/26/04 101 195 09/27/04 101 191 09/28/04 101 191 09/29/04 101 191 09/30/04 101 191 10/01/04 101 212 10/02/04 101 195 10/03/04 101 195 10/04/04 101 260 10/05/04 101 195 10/06/04 101 212 10/07/04 101 212 10/08/04 101 212 10/09/04 101 224 10/10/04 101 212 10/11/04 101 195 10/12/04 101 224 10/13/04 101 191 10/14/04 101 260 10/15/04 101 224 10/16/04 101 260 10/17/04 101 195 10/18/04 101 191 10/19/04 101 191 10/20/04 101 191 10/21/04 101 191 10/22/04 101 212 10/23/04 101 195 10/24/04 101 195 01/01/04 103 260 01/02/04 103 195 01/03/04 103 212 01/04/04 103 212 01/05/04 103 212 01/06/04 103 224 01/07/04 103 212 01/09/04 103 195 01/10/04 103 224 01/11/04 103 191 01/12/04 103 260 01/13/04 103 224 01/14/04 103 260 Page 51
  • 36. DPCache__xls_Capacity Data 01/15/04 103 195 01/16/04 103 191 01/17/04 103 191 01/18/04 103 191 01/19/04 103 191 02/01/04 103 212 02/04/04 103 195 02/05/04 103 195 02/07/04 103 260 02/09/04 103 195 02/10/04 103 212 02/11/04 103 212 02/12/04 103 212 02/13/04 103 224 02/14/04 103 212 02/16/04 103 195 02/19/04 103 224 02/20/04 103 191 02/21/04 103 260 02/22/04 103 224 02/23/04 103 260 02/24/04 103 195 02/25/04 103 191 02/26/04 103 191 02/27/04 103 191 02/28/04 103 191 02/29/04 103 212 03/01/04 103 195 03/03/04 103 195 03/05/04 103 260 03/06/04 103 195 03/09/04 103 212 03/10/04 103 212 03/11/04 103 212 03/12/04 103 224 03/14/04 103 212 03/15/04 103 195 03/16/04 103 224 03/17/04 103 191 03/19/04 103 260 03/20/04 103 224 03/21/04 103 260 03/23/04 103 195 03/24/04 103 191 03/25/04 103 191 03/26/04 103 191 03/28/04 103 191 03/29/04 103 212 03/30/04 103 195 04/01/04 103 195 04/02/04 103 260 04/03/04 103 195 Page 52