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Yis'rael2 Yis'rael2 Document Transcript

  • -781050-838200 -4406903352165Analyst: James E. GallagherMercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence StudiesClassification: UnclassifiedMay 12, 200900Analyst: James E. GallagherMercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence StudiesClassification: UnclassifiedMay 12, 20092895600366585529000454318000002901315366585500-498475647700Israel: A Nation Forged Through War00Israel: A Nation Forged Through War-141287533020000446958736440624552950363728000 <br />Table of Contents<br />Forward............................................................................................................................................3<br />Israel: A Nation Forged Through War............................................................................................4<br />Annex 1: Collection Activities – Intelligence Collection Plan........................................................7<br />Annex 2: Link Analysis.................................................................................................................22<br />Annex 3: Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield.....................................................................27<br />Annex 4: Order of Battle................................................................................................................33<br />Annex 5: Structured Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (SACH)................................................42<br />Annex 6: Multi-Attribute Criteria Decision Making (MCDM).....................................................49 <br />Annex 7: Acknowledgments..........................................................................................................53<br />Annex 8: Contact Information.......................................................................................................54<br />Cover Graphics: http://www.enghelberg.com/ediciones/IDF_DRIILS_2007JULY_SHIZAFON.jpg<br />Forward:<br />This intelligence report regarding the State of Israel is accurate as of May 12, 2009. It should be noted that this report is a quick image of the State of Israel’s military, political, economic, geographic, social and technological sectors, and is subject to being outdated as new events will occur. The sources used to create this report have a high degree of reliability and credibility. The analyst’s confidence in the reliability and credibility of this report and its overall conclusion is extremely high. <br />center4191000<br />Israel: A Nation Forged Through War<br />46545502170430Fig. 1.1 Map of Israelhttp://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/israel_rel01.jpg00Fig. 1.1 Map of Israelhttp://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/israel_rel01.jpgExecutive Summary: Israel is likely to remain stable over the next 24 months due to the nation’s formidable military presence and state of readiness, which is generously upgraded with U.S armaments. Israel possesses the most diverse economy in the Middle East which is further stabilized by approximately US $3 Billion a year in US aid. Subtracting from Israel’s coefficient of stability are the ongoing external threats of attack and pledges of annihilation from hostile neighbors. Internally, the Israeli government is inefficient and has a high rate of political corruption, with a low rate of law enforcement. Furthermore, there are a number of fault lines within Israeli society. Iran, Israel’s greatest strategic threat, creates ongoing instability in the region by openly supporting and supplying aid to Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are paramilitary organizations pledged to Israel’s destruction. End summary. <br />4139565238125Discussion:<br />A constant state of combat readiness combined with state of the art equipment makes Israel’s Military war machine the most effective and formidable fighting force in the Middle East. The country maintains a qualitative and quantitative superiority in combat strength over its potential and current enemies. Furthermore, Israel possesses nuclear weapons and maintains a number of long range ballistic missiles. These advanced missile capabilities give Israel a superior advantage in the region. Adding to Israel’s military superiority is Israel’s Air Force, which possesses air capabilities far beyond those of any military rivals in the region. Israel has a developed a highly advanced defense industry. The country accounts for 10 per cent of the global arms trade and is one of the top five arms exporters in the world. The United States, Israel’s closest ally, continually develops and upgrades Israel’s capabilities, further ensuring military superiority in the region. Israel’s economy also assures Israel’s stability. The country has the most diverse and modernized economy in the Middle East. Furthermore, Israel is the largest recipient of U.S aid in the world, totaling approximately US $3 Billion a year. Israel currently holds the most NASDAQ listed companies outside of North America. The Country’s long term economic outlook will be determined by regional stability and how Israeli leaders modernizing the economy. With little natural resources and under a constant threat of annihilation, Israel has come to rely on its highly educated labor force to push the economy forward. Israel, unlike most of its neighbors that have oil reserves, has created a powerful economy from the ground up with a pioneering tech sector. Israel has a fragmented polity, with an ongoing struggle between the left wing Labor and right wing Likud parties, both of which are vying for control of the state. Political instability increased in December 2005, when prime minister Ariel Sharon left the Likud party and established a centrist party, Kadima. Furthermore, the new right wing, hawkish Prime Minister of Israel, 43243501095375Fig. 1.2 Hamas Militants http://themustardseed.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/hamas_war0402.jpg00Fig. 1.2 Hamas Militants http://themustardseed.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/hamas_war0402.jpgBenjamin Netanyahu, has denounced any forms of peace talks with Israel’s enemies, further decreasing the chance of regional stability. It is all but certain that significant deterioration in peace talks will occur between Israel and her enemies.<br />3848100190500 Israel's presence in a hostile region and the constant threats of annihilation remain Israel’s greatest obstacle, but is also their greatest source of technological innovation, which is essential for future economic development. Although, the Palestinian intifada, launched in 2000, drastically increased the country’s defense budget and severely damaged the tourism sector of Israel’s economy. A third Palestinian Intifada would subtract years of economic progress made by Israel, and further increase the defense budget, while decreasing the health and education budget. Adding to Israel’s problems, the cost of living in the country remains high, leaving a large percentage of the population dependent on government aid.<br />Israel is surrounded by countries that have all gone to war against Israel in the past. Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are paramilitary organizations, have pledged to destroy the State of Israel. There are disputed arguments between the Palestinian people and Israel’s position on water access and use. Israeli settlers use approximately three to five times as much water as Palestinian residents consume in the same location. Iran, Israel’s greatest strategic threat, creates ongoing instability in the region by openly supporting and supplying aid to Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel has accepted the possibility of a missile attack against it will increase as Iran’s Nuclear weapons program comes closer to producing weapons grade nuclear material. It is likely that Israel will not launch a pre-emptive strike against known Iranian nuclear facilities, despite some remarks from Israeli officials. Furthermore, Iran’s missile capabilities are unlikely to penetrate Israel’s advanced anti-ballistic missile defense system, which is constantly upgraded with U.S help. During the Six Day War in1967, Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria. The Golan Heights are prized for their strategic value, as well as the Intelligence facilities on Mount Hermon. Syria and Israel remain officially at war, causing tense relations between the neighboring countries. Syria has suspended peace talks with Israel since the Israel-Gaza Strip conflict in December of 2008. <br />Comments:<br />The sources cited in this section have a high degree of reliability and credibility. Most of the sites utilized for this section are Government websites. The majority of this information comes from Janes, which has recently updated there information regarding the State of Israel. The analyst’s confidence level in the sources is very high. It is worthy to note that although Israel does have a fragmented polity and fault lines within society, internally, Israel is highly stable. The economy is strong; the Military is the most formidable in the region. The instability comes from external forces pressing into Israel. Israel’s neighbors have all gone to war against the nation. Furthermore, Israel cannot afford to lose a war, as this would seriously deteriorate Israel’s deterrence strength and iconic image of invincibility among its enemies. End comments. <br />Source Reliability: 8 Source Credibility: 8 <br />Annex 1:<br />Collection Activities – Intelligence Collection Plan<br />3995420114300<br />Israel ICP Report<br />Purpose<br />Source <br />TitleID<br />Type of Intelligence Periodicity<br />UtilityTimeSource <br />Comment<br />Economics<br />CIA - The World Factbook -- Israel<br />CIA - The World Factbook2<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful9<br />https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/is.html<br />cnet.com<br />Israel's high-tech IPO market falls flat in '08 | Business Tech - CNET News49<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-10203980-92.html<br />economist.com<br />Israel's Labour party agrees to join a Likud-led government | Taking shape in Israel | The 38<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13356188<br />Foreign Affairs<br />Israel and the Arabs: Israel's Economic Plight83<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/32626/ann-crittenden/israel-and-the-arabs-israels-economic-<br />plight<br />Google alerts<br />Israel's Hapoalim CEO to step down this year | Industries | Financial Services & Real 50<br />Corporate WebsiteOpen Sourcedaily<br />Useful7<br />http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSLP95472720090325<br />Israel a country study: A Country Study - Google Book Search<br />Israel a country study: A Country Study3<br />BookOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://books.google.com/books?id=Vh3qJ8O73VIC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Israel+country+study#P<br />PP1,M1<br />Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs<br />Looking at Israel- Economy82<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful9<br />http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Facts+About+Israel/Looking+at+Israel/Looking+at+Israel-+Economy.htm<br />Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs<br />Natural gas find could transform Israel's economy81<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful9<br />http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Israel+beyond+politics/Natural_gas_find_26-Jan-2009<br />Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs<br />Focus on Israel: Israel's Agriculture in the 21st Century61<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful8<br />http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Facts%2BAbout%2BIsrael/Economy/Focus%2Bon%2BIsrael-%2BIsrael-<br />s%2BAgriculture%2Bin%2Bthe%2B21st.htm<br />Jane's<br />Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments - Politics4<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />as needed9<br />http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/EMEDS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Israel&Prod_Name=E<br />MEDS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/emedsu/isras180.htm@current<br />Jewish Federation of North America<br />The Israeli Economy in Light of the Global Economic Crisis84<br />Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful5<br />http://www.ujc.org/page.aspx?id=198665<br />Jewish Virtual Library<br />Israeli Agriculture: Coping with Growth62<br />Educational InstitutionOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/agriculture/aggrowth.html<br />Nexis®<br />Nexis- Political and Economic system5<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />https://w3.nexis.com/new/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T6104436549&form<br />at=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T6104436552&cisb=22_T610443<br />6551&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=141120&docNo=1&hitNo=ORIGHIT_43<br />The global political economy of Israel - Google Book Search<br />The global political economy of Israel6<br />BookOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://books.google.com/books?id=vBWFd4vYxDMC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Israel+economy#PPR8<br />,M1<br />Urban Agriculture Notes<br />Israel Peri-urban Agriculture63<br />Educational InstitutionOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful6<br />http://www.cityfarmer.org/Israelperiurban.html<br />Geography<br />Google Maps<br />Israel - Google Maps55<br />Corporate WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful9<br />http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&rlz=1G1GGLQ_ENUS320&ei=Y__KScSkJ4XlnQeur9HLCQ&res<br />num=1&q=israel%20foreign%20policy&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wl<br />infoplease<br />Israel77<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful5<br />http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0107652.html<br />Infoplease.com<br />Israel: History, Geography, Government, and Culture — Infoplease.com53<br />Educational InstitutionOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0107652.html<br />Israel map[6].gif- Google image<br />israel map[6].gif (GIF Image, 432x552 pixels) - Scaled (54%)7<br />Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful6<br />http://www.hotels-israel.net/graphics/israel%20map%5B6%5D.gif<br />Israel_map.jpg (JPEG Image, 299x650 pixels)-Google image<br />Israel map8<br />Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful6<br />http://www.wordtravels.com/images/map/Israel_map.jpg<br />Israelweather.co.il<br />Israel Weather Forecast Local Service65<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful6<br />http://www.israelweather.co.il/english/index.asp<br />Jane's<br />Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments - Search Results10<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/EMEDS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Israel&Prod_Name=E<br />MEDS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/emedsu/isras030.htm@current<br />Jane's<br />Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments - Search Results9<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/EMEDS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Israel&Prod_Name=E<br />MEDS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/emedsu/isras040.htm@current<br />Jewish Agency for Israel<br />Geography of Israel78<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.jewishagency.org/JewishAgency/English/Aliyah/About+Israel/General/Geography+of+Isra<br />el.htm<br />look4aproperty.com<br />Country Guide: Israel - Geography, Topography, Terrain & Weather Patterns64<br />Corporate WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful4<br />http://www.look4aproperty.com/countries/n109/israel-geography.asp<br />nationmaster.com<br />NationMaster - Israeli Geography statistics46<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www.nationmaster.com/country/is-israel/geo-geography<br />nationmaster.com<br />NationMaster - Israeli Geography statistics42<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www.nationmaster.com/country/is-israel/geo-geography<br />State Dept.<br />Israel47<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www.state.gov/p/nea/ci/israel/<br />Military<br />BBC news<br />BBC NEWS | Middle East | Israel army 'used human shields'51<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7960824.stm<br />Foreign and Commonwealth Office<br />Israel: Update on UK strategic export controls86<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/newsroom/latest-news/?view=PressS&id=16637031<br />globalsecurity.org<br />Israel Air Force - Israel67<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/israel/iaf.htm<br />globalsecurity.org<br />Navy Equipment - Israel68<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/israel/navy-equipment.htm<br />guardian.co.uk<br />Military exports to Israel reviewed following Gaza conflict85<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/22/israel-gaza-military-exports<br />Israel Defense Forces<br />Israel Defense Forces - צבא ההגנה לישראל34<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful8<br />http://dover.idf.il/IDF<br />Israel Military Industries (IMI)<br />IMI : IMI52<br />Corporate WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www.imi-israel.com/Homepage.aspx?FolderID=11<br />Israeli Air Force<br />Israeli Air Force Website66<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.iaf.org.il/Templates/HomePage/HomePage.aspx?lang=EN<br />Israeli Navy אתר חיל הים<br />אתר חיל הים69<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www1.idf.il/Navy/Site/Templates/Homepage.asp?lang=he<br />Jane's<br />Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments - Military11<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/EMEDS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Israel&Prod_Name=E<br />MEDS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/emedsu/isras140.htm@current<br />Mastering Soldiers - Google Book Search<br />Mastering Soldiers12<br />BookOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=ULuamfVGHUUC&oi=fnd&pg=PR12&dq=Israel++milit<br />ary&ots=uZ5Zw91DvT&sig=yHjUq1owS-kT5-qfEhUkjhYI0KQ#PPR10,M1<br />nationmaster.com<br />NationMaster - Israeli Military statistics45<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www.nationmaster.com/country/is-israel/mil-military<br />The Military and Militarism in ... - Google Book Search<br />The Military and Militarism in Israeli Society13<br />BookOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=GeolVgSIXDkC&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=Israel++military<br />&ots=maenTWyb4Z&sig=ENwh1s7twZwvUABcl5eVW-mbUCk#PPA7,M1<br />Political<br />Al Mashriq<br />Hezbollah - the Party of God16<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />as needed2<br />http://almashriq.hiof.no/lebanon/300/320/324/324.2/hizballah/<br />CNS News<br />CNSNews.com - Drop Sanctions, End Support for Israel, Iran Demands32<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=45460<br />countrystudies.us<br />Israel - FOREIGN RELATIONS54<br />Educational InstitutionOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://countrystudies.us/israel/106.htm<br />countrystudies.us.israel<br />Government and Politics79<br />Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful6<br />http://countrystudies.us/israel/77.htm<br />floridajewishnews.com<br />Israeli political timeline: A short political history of Israel - FJN News & Features72<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www.floridajewishnews.com/site/a/Israeli_political_timeline_A_short_political_history_of_Israe<br />l/<br />Globalsecurity.org<br />Hezbollah (Party of God)15<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/hizballah.htm<br />Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs<br />Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs17<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful9<br />http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA<br />Israel News, Ynetnews<br />Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement - Israel News, Ynetnews14<br />Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.ynet.co.il/english/articles/0,7340,L-3377113,00.html<br />Jane's<br />Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments18<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://sentinel.janes.com/docs/sentinel/EMEDS_country.jsp?Prod_Name=EMEDS&Sent_Country=Isra<br />el&<br />Jane's<br />Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments - Search Results19<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/EMEDS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Israel&Prod_Name=E<br />MEDS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/emedsu/isras020.htm@current<br />Jewish Virtual Library<br />The Knesset20<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Politics/knesset.html<br />JPOST.com<br />JPOST.com | ELECTIONS 2006 | ISRAEL'S POLITICAL HISTORY70<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://info.jpost.com/C006/Supplements/elections.2006/polithistory/<br />Kadima Party קדימה בתקשורת | כל הכתבות באתר החדשות של קדימה<br />קדימה בתקשורת | כל הכתבות באתר החדשות של קדימה75<br />Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Not Useful5<br />http://www.kadima.org.il/main.php?topic=news<br />Labor party avoda.org.il<br />Labor party74<br />Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful5<br />http://www.avoda.org.il/14-he/Party.aspx<br />Likud Party בנימין נתניהו - בנימין נתניהו | הליכוד | כי צריך לנהל מדינה.<br />בנימין נתניהו - בנימין נתניהו | הליכוד | כי צריך לנהל מדינה.76<br />Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful5<br />http://www.netanyahu.org.il/<br />Ministry of Foreign Affairs<br />HISTORY: The State of Israel71<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful8<br />http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Facts+About+Israel/History/HISTORY-+The+State+of+Israel.htm<br />The Jerusalem Website<br />The Jerusalem Website57<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.jerusalem.muni.il/jer_main/defaultnew.asp?lng=2<br />The Knesset website<br />The Knesset21<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful8<br />http://www.knesset.gov.il/<br />The Organization of the Work of the Knesset<br />The Organization of the Work of the Knesset22<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful8<br />http://www.knesset.gov.il/description/eng/eng_work_org.htm<br />zionism-israel.com<br />Israeli Political System and Political Parties73<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www.zionism-israel.com/dic/politicalsystem.htm<br />المركز الفلسطيني للإعلامPalestinian info<br />المركز الفلسطيني للإعلام23<br />Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful3<br />http://www.palestine-info.info/<br />موقع المقاومة الإسلامية في لبنانHizbollah<br />موقع المقاومة الإسلامية في لبنان24<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful3<br />http://www.hizbollah.tv/<br />Social<br />Google Alert<br />AFP: Israel slams UN rights report on Gaza30<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourcedaily<br />Useful11:33 AM5<br />http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jJxoZtgvsr9N8aU_PJgnjxVYHnKg<br />Jane's<br />Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments - Search Results25<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/EMEDS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Israel&Prod_Name=E<br />MEDS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/emedsu/isras050.htm@current<br />jewfaq.org<br />Judaism 10160<br />Educational InstitutionOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.jewfaq.org/index.htm<br />Jewish Virtual Library<br />Jerusalem Table of Contents56<br />Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Peace/jerutoc.html<br />Library of Congress<br />Israel: Country Studies - Federal Research Division, Library of Congress48<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/iltoc.html<br />Peacemaking in a divided society - Google Book Search<br />Peacemaking in a divided society26<br />BookOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://books.google.com/books?id=GJoSoGs0BPgC&printsec=frontcover&dq=society+Israel#PPA3,M<br />1<br />Politics and society in modern Israel - Google Book Search<br />Politics and society in modern Israel27<br />BookOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://books.google.com/books?id=yBe30ud8K4sC&printsec=frontcover&dq=society+Israel#PPR10,M1<br />Reformed-theology.org<br />The Nation Of Israel59<br />Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://reformed-theology.org/html/israel.htm<br />Tahoe Daily Tribune<br />United States must support Israel | TahoeDailyTribune.com33<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful6<br />http://www.tahoedailytribune.com/article/20090320/NEWS/903199974/1001/NONE&parentprofile=1<br />056&title=United%20States%20must%20support%20Israel<br />The Case for Israel - Google Book Search<br />The Case for Israel28<br />BookOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://books.google.com/books?id=Dunx_i1P6fMC&pg=PA223&dq=israel+health+care+system&lr=#P<br />PA68,M1<br />thenationofisrael.org<br />The Nation of Israel58<br />Educational InstitutionOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful6<br />http://www.thenationofisrael.org/<br />Washington Post<br />Protest by Far-Right Group Stirs Unease in Israeli Arab Community - 31<br />Online NewspaperOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful7<br />http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-<br />dyn/content/article/2009/03/24/AR2009032400857.html?hpid=moreheadlines<br />Technology<br />economist.com<br />Proliferation and nuclear technologies | Fuel for thought | The Economist39<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13325544<br />Exxun.com<br />Israel - People35<br />Online News SourceOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful6<br />http://www.exxun.com/Israel/c_pp.html<br />globalsecurity.org<br />Israel's Nuclear Weapons37<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/1999/farr.htm<br />globalsecurity.org<br />Lekem Bureau of Scientific Relations - Leshkat Kesher Madao - Israeli Intelligence36<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/world/israel/lekem.htm<br />Jane's<br />Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments - Search Results29<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/EMEDS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Israel&Prod_Name=E<br />MEDS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/emedsu/isras060.htm@current<br />nationmaster.com<br />NationMaster - Israeli Agriculture statistics40<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www.nationmaster.com/country/is-israel/agr-agriculture<br />nationmaster.com<br />NationMaster - Israeli Energy statistics41<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www.nationmaster.com/country/is-israel/ene-energy<br />nationmaster.com<br />NationMaster - Israeli Health statistics43<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www.nationmaster.com/country/is-israel/hea-health<br />nationmaster.com<br />NationMaster - Israeli Industry statistics44<br />Research CenterOpen Sourceas needed<br />Highly Useful9<br />http://www.nationmaster.com/country/is-israel/ind-industry<br />Science.co.il<br />Science and Technology in Israel87<br />Government WebsiteOpen Sourceas needed<br />Useful8<br />http://www.science.co.il/News.asp<br />Annex 2: Link Analysis<br />Executive Summary: A link analysis of Israel demonstrates that continued stability is likely, as shown in the key sectors of military and economy. The Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran sector is the most central sector of the link chart due to the amount of impact these institutions play in Israel’s military, politics, economics, geography, social and technology sectors. Internal problems from the social sector of the link chart demonstrate that there is disunity among the Jewish people politically, religiously and ethically. The two social demographics that are of particular concern are the Jewish population and the Muslims that live in, and around Israel, causing a great deal of conflict between the two ethnic groups. The conflict between Israel and her enemies is a key factor in driving the weapons and technology sectors of the successful and lucrative Israeli economy. Lastly, Israel suffers a chronic water shortage, further increasing tension in the region. End summary. <br />Discussion: <br />56997601607185Fig 2.1I2 Analyst Notebook 700Fig 2.1I2 Analyst Notebook 7Analysis of the link chart displays the military, economic and political sectors as the critical sectors within the State of Israel. These sectors are the key to determining Israel’s stability. The success of these three sectors will reflect how effectively Israel can deter regional instability from external forces. Furthermore, Israel’s military and economic sectors are highly interconnected. Either of the sectors cannot prosper if the other fails. Due to the constant threat of destruction from hostile neighbors, Israel has a highly advanced and developed defense industry. The country is one of the top five arms exporters in the world, which accounts for 10 per cent of the global arms trade. Adding to Israel’s stability, the country is the largest recipient of U.S aid, manufactured weapons and technology.<br />3072765452755The military sector of the link chart breaks down the Israeli military forces into the IDF (army), IAF (air force) and INF (navy). The Israeli military surrounds much of their strategic operations around the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The IDF is restructuring its force in almost all fields of operations, as well as reshaping its national priorities to fit the emerging changes of regional security. The core of the IDF is its armored and mechanized forces. These forces are highly advanced and formidable due in part to Israel’s highly developed defense industry. In July 2003, Israel planed to decrease the strength of the IDF’s ground forces by over 25 per cent, over the course of the next five years. This is due largely to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and his regime by U.S forces, eliminating the threat of invasion from the east and making a successful invasion from Syria virtually impossible. This decreased the demand for large, conventional warfare resources. Furthermore, the IDF striving to decrease the time that it takes to mobilize forces. This emphasis on mobilization is due in part to Egypt’s and Saudi Arabia’s western equipped armies, both of which are also decreasing there timetables for mobilization of forces.<br />58191401670050Fig. 2.2 I2 Analyst Notebook 700Fig. 2.2 I2 Analyst Notebook 7The economic sector largely contributes to Israel’s stability in the region. As the most diverse economy in the Middle East, Israel’s financial machine is economically appealing to foreign investors. Israel has the most NASDAQ listed companies outside of North America. Furthermore, Israel manufactures two-thirds of the gem-quality diamonds in the world. Subtracting from Israel’s economic stability is the high percentage of Israelis that do not report their source of income. Additionally, hostile activity from Israel’s neighbors devastates the country’s tourism industry. Regional conflict has had an immediate impact on the industry, and a substantial knock-off effect on the economy. Renewed peace talks with the Palestinian government are critical for an increase in tourism. Regional conflict has an inverse affect on Israel’s military industrial complex, which is a means for innovation for the countries high tech and defense industries.<br />2583180310515The Political sector of the link chart alludes that Israel has a Multi-party democracy. Although the State of Israel has the most democratic polity in the region, the Government is inefficient, with a high rate of political corruption. There are serious questions about the size and ideology of the newly elected government and its ability to function effectively and in a united fashion. The new government also has a negative effect on Israel’s image abroad. The Israeli polity is severally divided among political parties, ranging from right and left extremist parties, to centralists groups. Likud, a right wing party is comprised of secular ultra-nationalists, conservatives, and economic liberals. The party now leads the Israeli government under Prime Minister Netanyahu. Hawkish Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denounced any forms of peace talks with Israel’s enemies, further 43243501152525Hamas Militants:Source: http://themustardseed.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/hamas_war0402.jpg00Hamas Militants:Source: http://themustardseed.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/hamas_war0402.jpgincreasing the chance of regional and political instability. Kadima, a centrist political party, currently controls the countries unicameral legislative body, the Knesset. Israel’s left wing party, Labour, is currently the second strongest party in the Knesset.<br />With widespread disunity among society, the Social sector of the link chart contributes to Israel’s instability. Based upon the current demographic growth rates, the Palestinian/Arab population should eventually surpass the Jewish majority. This will further increase tensions over the State's religious and cultural identity. There are divisions between Jews and Israeli Arabs, secular and orthodox Jews, Ashkenazi and Sephardic Jews, left and right extremists and nationalists and socialists. Subtracting from Israel’s social instability is the country’s health care system, which enjoys a high standard of health services, medical technology, research, hospital facilities and a high ratio of physicians to people. Everyone in Israel must have health insurance. Adding to Israel’s instability are illicit drugs. Approximately 75 per cent of all crime in Israel is drug related. Furthermore, organized crime is becoming a boom industry in Israel, with many members of the Russian mafia suspected to be involved. Human trafficking and an extensive arms trade also add to Israel’s social instability. <br />Israel’s technological sector plays a major role on Israel’s stability. Israel's Military Industrial Complex produces a vast array of military products, ranging from ammunition, small arms and artillery pieces to advanced electronic systems. Israel’s aerospace industries are advanced and highly developed. The country’s aerospace industry is a world leader in upgrading old aircrafts and flying platforms. Israel, unlike most of its neighbors that have oil reserves, has created a powerful economy by developing high-tech industries. Israel has the second highest concentration of high-tech industries next to the U.S. Many foreign investors have invested into Israel’s high-tech companies. Due to a lack of fresh water sources in Israel, the country is the world leader in the process of desalination. Almost 20 per cent of Israel’s water comes from desalination.<br />Israel’s geographical stability is greatly reduced because the country is surrounded by nations that have all gone to war against Israel in the past, and remain hostile. Israel’s instability is reduced by the countries highly advanced road system. Israel is currently upgrading much of its road network. Furthermore, the Israeli military mobilization timetable is greatly decreased due in part to Israel’s highly developed infrastructure. Although the land of Israel has little oil reserves, the country possesses many natural resources, including natural gas, timber, copper ore and potash. A threat to Israel’s stability, geographically, is fresh water sources. Israel suffers a chronic water shortage. It is virtually certain that Israel will become involved in conflicts involving access to fresh water resources with its neighbors. Currently, there is conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. 25 to 30 per cent of Israel's total water supply comes from the West Bank, as does 50 per cent of its drinking water. Over USD $30 billion has been spent by Israel in developing its water resources.<br />-541020-712470Fig. 2.3 I2 Analyst Notebook 700Fig. 2.3 I2 Analyst Notebook 7551180-673100<br />Comments: The Sources utilized for the creation of the link chart derived from a variety of credible sources, which include the U.S government and private research companies. The analyst’s confidence in the sources is high. Furthermore, the information is constantly updated. The link chart in this analysis was created by the analyst using I2 Analyst Notebook. The link chart is a visual representation of the inner workings of 6 sectors of the State of Israel. It should be noted that the link chart will quickly become outdated, as future events will occur that are likely to change Israel’s state of stability. End comments. <br />Source Reliability: 9 Source Credibility: 8<br />Annex 3: Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield<br />49276002009775Fig. 3.1 Google Earth00Fig. 3.1 Google EarthExecutive Summary: Israel’s geography is diverse and in certain areas, rugged. Israel possesses the adequate infrastructure needed to mobilize military forces efficiently and effectively. To the south, Israel has the Negev desert, making an invasion through this part of the country very difficult for poorly equipped troops. Low coastal planes run along the coat of the Mediterranean Sea, offering no geological features of significant importance for defense in the event of an invasion from the sea. The central mountain range that runs along the Jordan River and the Dead Sea is an invaluable geological feature, providing defense against invading forces from the east. The Golan Heights, in the northern part of Israel, bordering Lebanon, is of great strategic military importance for the State of Israel against invading forces from the North. End summary. <br />4352925222250Discussion: <br />Israel is bordered by Syria, Egypt, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Jordan and Lebanon. Israel cannot afford to lose any of its land due to either economic or military purposes. The southern region of the country consists of mostly desert, while Israel’s Mediterranean coastline is a fertile plain. Most of Israel’s major cities and towns are located along this fertile plain that follows the Mediterranean coastline. This fertile plain is the economic core of Israel. Most of Israel’s high tech industries and agricultural centers are located here. If the country is to maintain economic stability, it must protect this region from hostile activities, as hostile activity would greatly affect Israel’s economic stability. Israel’s fertile plain is essential for the nation’s thriving agricultural economy. In terms of food sources, Israel is a self providing nation, with a low dependence of foreign food imports. This adds to the countries stability. The countries main river, the Jordan River, is an important geographical feature, giving a military advantage to Israel against any likely invasions from Jordan. Furthermore, approximately six per cent of the country is covered with forests and woodlands. Israel possesses a Mediterranean climate, having long, hot, dry summers and short, cold, rainy winters. The coldest month for Israel is January, with temperatures ranging from 10 Celsius to 5 Celsius. August is the warmest month for Israel, with temperatures ranging from 18 Celsius to 38 Celsius. Approximately 70 percent of Israel’s annual rainfall occurs between November and March, making a successful invasion against Israel highly unlikely during this time of the year. June through August is all but rainless, increasing the likelihood of a successful Israeli invasion.<br />-3429003476625Fig. 3.2 Source: http://www.preceptaustin.org/TopographyIsrael.jpg00Fig. 3.2 Source: http://www.preceptaustin.org/TopographyIsrael.jpg-352425-381000Israel’s military installations are strategically placed near areas where hostile activity is most likely to occur. Also, Israel’s naval bases are station around the country’s most vital ports; Ashdod, Ashqelon, Eilat and Haifa. This strategic placement of Israeli naval forces further secures the countries commerce from the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba. Furthermore, Israel’s IDF installations are strategically placed near the Sinai Peninsula, the Golan Heights and the Jordanian border, while IAF installations are primarily placed near the West Bank and in the Negev desert. These IAF and IDF installations contain some of the most advanced weapons inventory in the world (inventory provided at the end of this annex). The 1949 Armistice agreement line is an issue surrounded by conflict and instability, because it separates Israel from the West Bank. This is a heavily observed line that is highly regulated with checkpoints and roadblocks to prevent smuggling, unwanted resources and people to enter or leave the State of Israel. Furthermore, it is concerning that the longest distance between Tel Aviv and the 1949 Armistice line is only 75 kilometers. This is a very minimal buffer zone that must require instant military mobilization, if Israeli forces are to successfully counter a possible enemy invasion from the West Bank. A minimal buffer zone between the Mediterranean fertile plain and the armistice line is a factor that contributes to Israel’s geopolitical instability. <br />An analysis of Israel’s Intelligence preparation of the battlefield reveals that the majority of the country of Israel is a “Go”, with the central highlands region of the country primarily being a “No-Go”. The ‘Slow-Go” regions of the country include the outskirts of Jerusalem, the Jordan Rift Valley and the port of Eliat. The most expected avenues of approach for invading forces include coming from the southern part of the country from the Sinai Peninsula, invading forces from the Mediterranean Sea and approaching forces from the north through Lebanon. An invasion from the Mediterranean Sea will inflict the most damage to Israel, crippling agricultural centers, Israel’s high tech industries and the Seat of Government, Jerusalem.<br />Analysis of Israel’s Order of Battle (OOB) shows a highly trained, well equipped fighting force that is far superior to any other military in the region. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has approximately 125,000 soldiers, with an estimated 475,000 reserve soldiers. The IDF is divided into three regions; Golan, West Bank and Gaza. Due to Universal conscription among the Israeli population, the IDF maintains strong ground forces. Lastly, the backbone of the IDF’s strength is its armored and mechanized forces. <br />5099050466725Fig. 3.3 Google Earth00Fig. 3.3 Google Earth2066925895350The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has the strength of 36,000, plus 55,000 reserves. The Israeli air force is considered to be the most effective air force in the world, making full use of most advanced technologies and maintaining a constant state of readiness. After the unsuccessful operation against Hezbollah in 2006, the IAF is changing its strategic planning and direction to more effectively eliminate hostile sources. Furthermore, the IAF is undergoing a major modernization program, buying new jets and upgrading old aircraft. The IAF currently posses the same inventory as the U.S.A.F does, minus the F-22 Raptor, the most advanced fighter jet in the world. The IAF’s inventory of fighter jets mostly consists of F-16 Falcons and F-15 Eagles.<br />The Israeli Naval Forces (INF) has the strength of 9,500, plus 5,000 reserves. Of the three Military branches, the INF receives the lowest priority, with inadequate funding. Israel’s fleet consists mostly of fast attack boats. The purchase of three Dolphin class submarines in 1999 drastically increased the INFs capabilities. Israel is planning to arm these submarines with cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads. The purchase of these submarines gives Israel a “second strike” capability. The IAF is seen as a deterrent against naval invasions from the Mediterranean Sea by hostile forces. Lastly, a Strategic situation that is increasing instability in the region is the rapid buildup of Egyptian Naval Forces.<br />Comments:<br />The sources used for the Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield were primarily Janes and Nation Master. These sites are highly reliable. The analyst’s confidence in the sources used is high. It is highly likely that the Israeli military can defend itself against any formidable military invasion. The Israeli military is highly trained and heavily supplied. The IDF has superior technology and conventional warfare skills, but lacks the guerilla warfare that Hamas and Hezbollah utilize. End comments. <br />Source Reliability: 9 Source Credibility: 8 <br /> -240030439420Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield - Israel<br />3107055146685-419100146050-606425-106680Air Bases00Air Bases5148580-113030Major Roads00Major Roads526351531051541160701733553761105-106680Avenue of Approach00Avenue of Approach3020060-106680Slow-Go00Slow-Go22440901466852185035-120015No-Go00No-Go13817601898651157605-120015Naval Bases00Naval Bases185420-120015Army Bases00Army Bases476250147128 <br />The Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) was generated by Google Earth to analyze Israel’s terrain and order of battle. The Information in the image was gathered primarily from Janes and U.S Government Sources.<br />34861507639050Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/Israel_topo_en.jpg00Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/Israel_topo_en.jpg114300-695325<br />Annex 4: Order of Battle<br />-334645398145(Source: janes.com)<br /> <br />-654050241935IAF Units<br />-636905-146685<br />838200-647065IAF Bases<br />-706120890905<br />IAF Fixed Wing Inventory<br />-602615249555IAF Rotary Wing Inventory<br />-645795218440IAF Unmanned Ariel Vehicle Inventory<br />27305249555IAF Missile Inventory<br />-680085250190IDF Amour Inventory<br />-680085273050IDF Artillery Inventory<br />-680085249555IDF Anti-Tank Weapons Inventory <br />-628015363855IDF Infantry Weapons Inventory<br />-307340318770INF Submarine Inventory<br />-671195233045INF Surface Fleet Inventory<br />-464185358140INF Naval Aviation Inventory<br />Annex 5: Structured Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (SACH)<br />Executive Summary: An initial analysis of competing hypothesis (ACH) reveals that it is likely that Israel will remain stable within in the next 24 months. After refining the initial test, analysis indicates that Israel’s continued stability is threatened by political, social and geographical reasons. Israel’s stability is greatly increased by its strong economy and military. End summary. <br />Discussion: <br />5486400346075Fig. 5.1 ACH00Fig. 5.1 ACH3882390699135Initial ACH results indicate that it is likely that Israel will remain stable within the next 24 months. The analyst came to this conclusion by entering evidence into a matrix, and then characterizing the evidence on a continuum from “CC” to “II”. “CC” characterizes the evidence as being strongly consistent with the hypothesis, while “II” characterizes the evidence as being strongly inconsistent with the hypothesis. Evidence that is characterized with “C” or “I” indicate the evidence to be consistent, or inconsistent with the hypothesis. Evidence that is characterized with “NA” or “N” indicates a non-applicable or neutral stance towards the hypothesis. Furthermore, the evidence can be graded by the amount of credibility and relevance the evidence has towards the hypothesis, using the values of “high”, “medium” and “low”. <br />The two hypotheses used for the matrix are “Israel will be stable in 24 months” and “Israel will not remain stable in 24 months” (ACH). Evidence entered into the matrix depicted a score of stability vs. instability. The hypothesis with the lowest score would be the winning hypothesis. “Israel will be stable in 24 months” received an inconsistency score of -46.229, while “Israel will not remain stable in 24 months” received an inconsistency score -61.573, demonstrating far more inconsistency then the competing hypothesis.<br />To determine what factors were contributing most to Israel’s continued stability, the hypotheses were refined into six competing hypotheses (SACH). The new hypotheses asked the question of whether Israel would remain stable in the next 24 months due to military, political, economic, social, geographic and technological factors. Fig. 5.2 demonstrates that Israel’s technology, economy and military will sustain the countries continued stability. Furthermore, Fig 5.2 reveals that Israel’s stability is reduced to due political, social and geographic reasons. 3644265-266065Technological factors have the third fewest inconsistencies, receiving a score of -15.605. Due to Israel’s precarious situation in the region, the country has come to rely on its advanced technology to counter and deter attacks. Furthermore, Israel’s advanced technology greatly reduces the amount of Israeli military casualties, increasing the role that the military aspect plays in the countries stability. Also, Israel’s technology also improves the economical factor in the competing hypotheses, due to the countries sophisticated high tech industries. Military Factors have the second fewest inconsistencies, receiving a score of -14.656. This is due to Israel’s military superiority in the region. Furthermore, 50399952657475Fig 5.2 SACH00Fig 5.2 SACHthe country’s military has a constant state of readiness, ensuring a successful invasion of the country almost impossible. <br />-3714752463800-3879851606550Fig 5.3 Hamas Rally http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/files/images/hamas_rally.jpg00Fig 5.3 Hamas Rally http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/files/images/hamas_rally.jpgPolitical factors have the most inconsistencies, receiving an inconsistency score of -33.675. The reason why politics in Israel attribute to the countries instability is due to disunity, especially among left wing and the right wing radicals. Social and geographic factors both received similar amount of inconsistencies, with geographic factors receiving an inconsistency score of -31.777, and social factors receiving an inconsistency score of -32.089. The social aspect adds to Israel’s instability due to internal social division among Israelis, and external unity among the Arab nations that threaten Israel’s existence. The geographic aspect contributes to Israel’s instability due to the countries hostile neighbors, further increasing the geopolitical tension in the region. As long as Israel exists in the region, it is highly likely that regional instability will continue among Israel and its Arab neighbors. Having the lowest inconsistency score of -13.605, economic factors greatly add to Israel’s stability due to the countries highly developed defense and high tech industries. Israel’s technological and economical factors are deeply intertwined. It is all but certain that if one of these factors were to fail, the other would most likely fail with it. Lastly, Israel’s advanced technological infrastructure and vast U.S aid drive the country’s economy and maintains its military superiority among its primitively armed enemies. <br />Comments:<br />The sources used to construct the ACH are reliable and credible. Although, it should be noted that the inconsistency scores are subject to the analyst’s cognitive bias. The SACH results for Israel are unique due to the countries technological infrastructure as its means of survival, economically and militarily. It should be noted that without its highly advanced technological infrastructure and U.S support, it is all but certain that the state of Israel would not exist today.<br />Source Reliability: 8 Source Credibility: 8 <br />-5245104744085-527050-311150<br />-5162553890010-520065-311150 <br />-5232406379210-5232403529965-523240-308610<br />-5232402423795-523240-308610<br />Annex 6: Multi-Attribute Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)<br />Israel likely to attack hostile sources in the region within the next 12-24 months. <br />Executive Summary: Due to the countries geopolitical situation in the region, it is highly likely that Israel will attack against institutions or paramilitary organizations that focus internally on destroying the State of Israel. Israel will attack offensively due to hostile institutions threatening Israel’s national security by acquiring weapons and materials that threatens its national security. Israel will attack in retaliation, if a hostile institution attacks Israel and threatens the State’s sovereignty. When Israel encounters enemy forces, military action is aggressive, and the outcome is decisive. <br />Requirement:<br />What will the likely Israeli military response be to hostile groups (Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran) over the next 12-24 months?<br />Possible Courses of Action:<br />COA A: Israel will aggress against Iranian political, military and nuclear facilities that threaten Israel’s national security by supporting Hamas and Hezbollah<br />COA B: Israel will aggress against Hamas and/or Hezbollah, most likely in retaliation due to these paramilitary organizations firing rockets into Israel or attacking Israeli outposts and settlements. <br />COA C: Israel will seek U.N and/or U.S help to aid in the countries conflict against its hostile neighbors <br />COA D: Israel will invade and occupy the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to root out hostile sources threatening the counties national security<br />COA E: Israel will aggressively attack hostile institutions that invade Israel.<br />COA F: Israel will diplomatically deal with these hostile institutions<br />Screening Criteria:<br />COA must not depend on foreign intervention. COA must swiftly and effectively end conflict and be cost effective.<br />Remaining COAs (After Screening Applied):<br />COA 1: Israel will aggress against Iranian political, military and nuclear facilities that threaten Israel’s national security<br />COA 2: Israel will aggress against Hamas and/or Hezbollah, most likely in retaliation due to these paramilitary organizations firing rockets into Israel or attacking Israeli outposts and settlements.<br />COA 3: Israel will invade and occupy the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to root out hostile sources threatening the counties national security<br />Evaluation Criteria:<br />Eval A: Popular Support (Intuitive/Weight of the Information, 1=low, 2=moderate, 3=high)<br />Eval B: Knesset Support (Intuitive/Weight of the Information, 1=low, 2=moderate, 3=high)<br />Eval C: Presidential Support (Intuitive/Weight of the Information, 1=low, 2=moderate, 3=high)<br />Eval D: International Support (Intuitive/Weight of the Information, 1=low, 2=moderate, 3=high)<br />Matrix:<br />Israel likely to attack hostile sources in the region within the next 12-24 months. Eval A: Popular Support Eval B: Knesset SupportEval C: Presidential Support Eval D: International Support TotalCOA 1: Israel will aggress against Iranian political, military and nuclear facilities that threaten Israel’s national security12317COA 2: Israel will aggress against Hamas and/or Hezbollah, most likely in retaliation due to these paramilitary organizations firing rockets into Israel or attacking Israeli outposts and settlements.22318COA 3: Israel will invade and occupy the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to root out hostile sources threatening the counties national security fields12216<br />Sources:<br />COA 1, Eval A-D: <br />1-http://sentinel.janes.com/docs/sentinel/EMEDS_country.jsp?Prod_Name=EMEDS&Sent_Country=Israel& 2-http://www.alan.com/2009/04/17/is-israel-getting-ready-to-invade-iran/ 3- http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO505A.html 4-http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2827787.ece<br />COA 2, Eval A-B:<br />1-http://www.usembassy.it/pdf/other/RL33566.pdf 2-http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7802040.stm 3- http://www.heritage.org/research/iran/wm1159.cfm 4- http://sentinel.janes.com/docs/sentinel/EMEDS_country.jsp?Prod_Name=EMEDS&Sent_Country=Israel& <br />COA 3: <br />1-Same as COA 1 and 2 2-http://sentinel.janes.com/docs/sentinel/EMEDS_country.jsp?Prod_Name=EMEDS&Sent_Country=Israel& <br />Annex 7: Acknowledgments<br />First and foremost, I want to thank Prof. Dawn Wozneak, for providing me invaluable insight and a sense of planning and direction. I want to thank the Israeli Embassy for their help during the collection process. I want to extend my thanks to Monster Energy Drinks®, which was consumed in large amounts during the creation of this product. Lastly, and most importantly, I want to thank my father, for teaching me code and honor, to my mother, for supporting me in my endeavors, and to all those men better than I, who I am forever in their dept; Bob Heibel, Coach Adrian, Coach Ted, Sfc. Anderson, Col. Swift and Lt. Piccini. Thank You.<br />2421890123825<br />2614295273685James E. Gallagher Analyst400000James E. Gallagher Analyst<br /> <br />1017905253365<br />center3796030James E. Gallagher240-432-3489020000James E. Gallagher240-432-3489center356298500-753110427355Annex 8: Contact Information<br />