Haiti Chile Earthquake
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Haiti Chile Earthquake

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Haiti Chile Earthquake Haiti Chile Earthquake Document Transcript

  • 17 May 2010 P age |0 Department of State Disaster Task ForcePrepared for THE SECRETARY OF STATE Geneva Summit 2010 |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P age |1 Preface The National Security Council (NSC) has directed that the Department of State,a member of the Disaster Task Force (DTF), to prepare a briefing book for the Secretaryof State (SecState) in preparation for the upcoming Geneva Summit. The DTF is toproject out to the end of 2011. The Department of State (DOS) is to address thefollowing issues in the tasking below. The tasking is not inclusive, and is subject tochange as circumstances dictate. Tasking In mid-May 2010 the Secretary of State (SECSTATE) will attend a special UNmeeting in Geneva, which will address the international response to actual and potentialnatural and man-made disasters. The National Security Council (NSC) has directed thata dedicated Disaster Task Force (DTF) be established to provide current intelligenceand status reports, both on current international issues and on potential domesticproblems, to include possible related terrorist threats. The DTF consists of teams fromDepartment of Defense (DOD), Department of State (DOS), Department of HomelandSecurity (DHS), the Counter Terrorism Center (CTC), and a “red team” to focus onvulnerabilities both in the US and abroad. Teams have been tasked with preparing theSECSTATE’s Briefing Books on these issues Of particular importance will beproviding analysis of the broad range of responses to recent humanitarian disasters,including Haiti, Chile, Swine Flu; US preparedness for similar events; and terroristcapabilities and intentions of inciting humanitarian crises; In addition to certainassigned taskings, analysts will determine, through research, additional important topicsthat may engage the SECSTATE during this meeting. Current Issue The oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico is the current issue that the DOS is preparingfor the SECSTATE. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P age |2Department of State Disaster TASK Force Overall Forecast |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P age |3 Overall ForecastExecutive Summary:After ten weeks of open source research and analysis of the 12 January 2010 Haitiearthquake, it is highly likely that Haiti will remain unstable due to corruption withinthe Government of Haiti (GOH) a lack of coordination and communication betweenforeign powers and the GOH in the relief and reconstruction efforts. This estimate isdue to Haiti’s unstable government, which is riddled with corruption. The US military isseen as the lead player in the relief and reconstruction efforts in Haiti. With thedeparture of the US military on 1 June, the Haitian populace fears that humanitarianefforts and security will drastically decrease. There is large distrust between the Haitianpeople and the GOH. René Préval, the President of Haiti, is rapidly becoming unpopularamong the Haitian people due to his perceived corruption and lack of ability to rebuildHaiti. The combination of these issues contributes to the unlikelihood that the GOH willsucceed in rebuilding its country.Discussion: As the date for US military withdrawal from Haiti draws near, displaced Haitians worry that the GOH lacks the ability to control its internal affairs and is in a permanent state of instability. There is a lack of coordination and communication between the US, UN, NGOs and the GOH, reconstruction and relief efforts remain inefficient. With President René Préval postponing presidential and legislative elections in the country, Haitians are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the GOH. Groups that once supported Haitian President René Préval are arming themselves against the GOH, putting the country in danger of further instability and political violence. Préval’s declining legitimacy and the lack of any obvious successor for a smooth handover of political power is further destabilizing the country. According to NGOs and the UN, armed gangs and displaced Haitians continue to commit violence against civilians. In some instances these gangs have supplanted the GOH in certain neighborhoods that are absent of humanitarian aid and are now in control. With security issues continuing to mount in Haiti, experts suggest that it is inevitable that the US military will redeploy to Haiti. The date for US military disengagement could change should a new crisis emerge, especially with so many Haitians still homeless as the rainy season looms. After the US military forces withdraw from Haiti on 1 June, the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) will provide overall security within Haiti. However, the Haitian National Police, with the oversight of MINUSTAH, is to provide security within Port-Au-Prince, the capital city. However, the GOH police and military forces are under-strength for the size of the population, under-resourced, poorly trained and riddled with corruption. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P age |4 The rainy season that officially began on 1 May, has displaced several Haitians from certain tent camps. With a limited amount of time along with inadequate command and control of the situation, the GOH is unable to relocate Haitians to designated camps outside the capital city. The GOHs lack of control and legitimacy among displaced Haitians could potentially force the US to redeploy the US military back to Haiti.James E. GallagherMax KorczykShannon Mae Connors |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P age |5 Key FindingsUSG Likely To Takeover Oil Slick Relief Efforts In The Gulf Of MexicoDue to BPs recently unsuccessful efforts to contain the oil slick, the USG is likely totake over relief operations in the Gulf of Mexico. With a highly sophisticated industrythat has large levels of revenues and research capacity, the USG continues to criticizeBP for not doing enough. Furthermore, BP is uncertain as to when the leaking well willultimately be plugged.1 BP’s most recent effort to stop the oil slick failed, and theleaking well continues to hit the gulf coast region environmentally and economically.2US legislators remain frustrated that the problem has not been fixed yet a month afterthe deepwater horizon rig exploded. However, BP continues to openly state that theywill pay all expenditures and compensations.Haiti: Post Earthquake Security Highly Likely To Be An Ongoing IssueIt is highly unlikely that the Government of Haiti (GOH) will be able to provide longterm security within their country. GOH police and military forces are under-strengthfor the size of the population, under-resourced, poorly trained and riddled withcorruption. A sudden withdrawal of US and MINUSTAH forces would furtherdestabilize the country. Additionally, with the escape of 4000 prisoners from thenational prison, crime and gang activity is expected to increase, especially around thedistribution stations of food, water and medical aid.Inefficient GOH Response Highly Likely Due To Corruption:The massive loss of human life from the Haiti quake is highly likely due to corruptionand the lack of preparedness that comes with it. Due to corruption within theGovernment of Haiti (GOH) there was a lack of preparedness in building codes andinitial response. Compared to Chile, Haiti had nonexistent building codes that lead tostructures that would easily topple. Furthermore, Haiti lacks the strong centralgovernment that Chile posses. Unlike Chile who relied on their strong centralgovernment for assistance, Haiti relied on external intervention. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P age |6Elections in Haiti Needed for ChangeIn order to inhibit the current political instability within Haiti, it is likely the 2010election will take place. For without the upcoming elections the people of Haiti willcontinue to mistrust the Haitian government.Haitians Increasingly Unlikely to Support GOH Lead ReconstructionIt is highly unlikely the Haitian populace will strongly support GOH lead reconstructionefforts. Haitians perceive that reconstruction money coming into Haiti as benefiting thecountrys wealthy minority rather than the vast mass of quake victims. Popular supportfor Haitian President René Préval is dropping considerably, and an impending politicalcrisis is rapidly corroding the legitimacy in the Préval government.Successful Reconstruction Unlikely After US Military Disengages FromHaitiSuccessful humanitarian, reconstruction, and security efforts are unlikely to succeed inHaiti after the US military withdraws from the country on 1 June. UN, MINUSTAH,GOH and NGOs are collectively uncoordinated and highly inefficient in carrying outroutine tasks. However, a contingency of 500 US reserves and a small USAID teamoffer a sense of hope among the Haitian populace.GOH/UN Cooperation With NGOs UnlikelyIt is unlikely that relief action will be carried out effectively due to lack of coordinationand communication between NGOs, the UN and GOH. Nearly 10,000 NGOs areoperating in Haiti alongside the UN and US military. Communication and meetingswith relief coordinators is almost impossible because of mass un-organization due tostresses over leadership and where certain organizations can or cannot operate. This iscausing the NGOs and GOH/UN to give more aid than is necessary resulting in Haitibecoming too dependent on foreign aid. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P age |7Short-term Reconstruction Not Likely To Start SoonIt is likely that the short-term reconstruction in Haiti will not begin until the end of theAtlantic hurricane season towards the end of November 2010. In order for the short-term reconstruction begins humanitarian efforts in Haiti need to end. The 2010hurricane season has been forecasted to be above-average and may cause furtherdamage and heighten humanitarian need.Long-Term Reconstruction Unlikely Effective Without EffectiveLeadershipIf Haiti does not set up an effective leadership it is unlikely that long-termreconstruction and stabilization will improve the state. Due to disregard in the past theinternational community plans to observe long- term reconstruction that is predicted tolast for 10 years fallowing 18 months of short-term reconstruction. The Haitian statecannot recover on its own due to extreme structural vulnerability. Haitian leaders willrequire the help of the UN and international organizations to help create an effectiveleadership. In addition the UN will continue to focus on humanitarian assistance tofurther a stabilize Haiti.Haiti’s January Shake-Up Fueling Further CorruptionDue to recent natural and man-made disasters it is highly likely that the use of Web 2.0is playing a pivotal role in current and future communication updates and futureinformation collection. Social media and social networking platforms are increasing inpopularity and use. Recent major emergencies resulted in official and press reportingutilization of Web 2.0 tools to support consequence management operations. Web 2.0 isa decision support tool that provides decision makers the ability to act in real-time/ nearreal-time there by reducing the reaction time after the disaster.Web 2.0 Likely Crucial in Future Disaster Information DisseminationDue to recent natural and man-made disasters it is highly likely that the use of Web 2.0is playing a pivotal role in current and future communication updates and futureinformation collection. Social media and social networking platforms are increasing in |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P age |8popularity and use. Recent major emergencies resulted in official and press reportingutilization of Web 2.0 tools to support consequence management operations. Web 2.0 isa decision support tool that provides decision makers the ability to act in real-time/ nearreal-time there by reducing the reaction time after the disaster.Rainy Season Likely to Further Weaken GOHThe rainy season is likely to further weaken the government of Haiti (GOH) as itcontinues to recover from the January earthquake. The GOH is working to improve anddevelop temporary housing. However, the GOH could face another disaster due toineffective government, mistrust among the GOH and people, and poor conditions ofthe relocation camps.US Efforts Likely To Continue After US military Pull-OutUS relief efforts in Haiti will likely continue after the pull-out of remaining militaryforces. When 1 June comes around, the US will be pulling out the remaining militaryforces in Haiti. Many Haitians fear that the US involvement will cease once thishappens. That is not the case as President Obama has pledge full support towards Haitiand its new beginning. Efforts of the USG after the military pull-out will include theNational Guard from a number of US states, financial support and relief, and politicalsupport.US Relief Efforts Key in Helping HaitiIt likely that the US will continue to aid and supervise the situation in Haiti until theGOH is ready to take control of their homeland. After Haiti was hit by an earthquake inJanuary, the international community stepped up and sent relief aid packages to save thetiny island nation. The US went even further by sending its military force, economicaid, and political officials to help reestablish some level of control for the Governmentof Haiti (GOH). |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P age |9Elections in Haiti Likely will Help StabilityHaiti’s Presidency over the years has been in turmoil for a long time. With its history ofcoups and inadequate leadership through the years, the government of Haiti facesinstability and corruption within its political levels. Due to the corruption and lack ofsupport from the Haitian populace, it is likely that elections will take place in Haiti tobring stability to the country.US Forces Highly Likely to Return to HaitiDue to the upcoming hurricane season and political instability, it is highly likely that theUS will redeploy into Haiti. The US has aided Haiti through military and financialsupport. With the June 1 US withdraw of military forces fast approaching, the GOH willbe led by the MINUSTAH and the National Haitian Police force, which will furtherpress instability throughout the country.US Efforts Likely to Continue after Pull-OutDespite the US military pull out of Haiti on June 1st, it is likely US forces will continueefforts in Haiti. With certain military forces in Haiti providing humanitarian efforts,continuation of financial support, and political support, US efforts towards Haiti willbring Haiti closer to a sense of stability. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 10 Table of ContentsT of ContentsPREFACE AND TASKING ....................................................................................................... 1OVERALL FORECAST ........................................................................................................... 3KEY FINDINGS ................................................................................................................... 5 CURRENT ISSUE ............................................................................................................. 13 SECURITY...................................................................................................................... 16 HAITI: POST EARTHQUAKE SECURITY HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE AN ONGOING ISSUE .................................................. 16 SUCCESSFUL RECONSTRUCTION UNLIKELY AFTER US MILITARY DISENGAGES FROM HAITI ..................................... 18 US RELIEF EFFORTS KEY IN HELPING HAITI ................................................................................................. 20 CORRUPTION................................................................................................................ 21 HAITI’S JANUARY SHAKE-UP FUELING FURTHER CORRUPTION ......................................................................... 22 INEFFICIENT GOH RESPONSE HIGHLY LIKELY DUE TO CORRUPTION .................................................................. 23 ELECTIONS IN HAITI LIKELY WILL HELP STABILITY .......................................................................................... 25HAITI: SHORT, MID AND LONG TERM .................................................................................. 26 RAINY SEASON LIKELY TO FURTHER WEAKEN GOH ...................................................................................... 27 GOH/UN COOPERATION WITH NGOS UNLIKELY ........................................................................................ 28 SHORT-TERM RECONSTRUCTION NOT LIKELY TO START SOON ........................................................................ 29 HAITIANS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT GOH LEAD RECONSTRUCTION ................................................... 30 US MILITARY FORCES LIKELY TO RETURN TO HAITI ....................................................................................... 32 LONG-TERM RECONSTRUCTION LIKELY TO IMPROVE HAITI.............................................................................. 33 WEB 2.0 LIKELY CRUCIAL IN FUTURE DISASTER INFORMATION DISSEMINATION ................................................... 34 US EFFORTS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFTER US MILITARY PULL-OUT ................................................................... 35LINK CHART (HAITI NODE)................................................................................................. 36SCENE SETTER ................................................................................................................. 37 EDMUND MULET: SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE AND HEAD OF MINUSTAH .......................................................... 38 SIMEON TROMBITAS: COMMANDING GENERAL, JTF-H ................................................................................. 40 SIR JOHN HOLMES: DIRECTOR OF HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS AND EMERGENCY RELIEF COORDINATOR ....................... 42POPULATION MOVEMENT WITHIN HAITI............................................................................... 45LINK CHART (HAITI NODE)................................................................................................. 47HUMANITARIAN AID WITHIN HAITI ..................................................................................... 49WHO HAITIANS THINK SHOULD CARRY OUT RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS ..................................... 51LOCATIONS OF CONGESTED CAMPS IN PORT-AU-PRINCE.......................................................... 51LOCATIONS OF WFP FOOD DISTRIBUTION CNETERS IN PORT-AU-PRINCE .................................... 53LOCATIONS OF THE OIL SLICK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ............................................................. 55 |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 11CONTACT INFORMATION ................................................................................................... 57ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................... 59IMAGERY SOURCING......................................................................................................... 61ENDNOTES ..................................................................................................................... 63 |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 12 Department of State Disaster TASK ForceCurrent Issue: Gulf Coast Oil Slick |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 13USG Likely To Takeover Oil Slick Relief Efforts In The Gulf OfMexicoExecutive Summary:Due to BPs recently unsuccessful efforts to contain the oil slick, the USG is likely totake over relief operations in the Gulf of Mexico. With a highly sophisticated industrythat has large levels of revenues and research capacity, the USG continues to criticizeBP for not doing enough. Furthermore, BP is uncertain as to when the leaking well willultimately be plugged.3 BP’s most recent effort to stop the oil slick failed, and theleaking well continues to hit the gulf coast region environmentally and economically. 4US legislators remain frustrated that the problem has not been fixed yet a month afterthe deepwater horizon rig exploded. However, BP continues to openly state that theywill pay all expenditures and compensations.Discussion: BPs latest effort to contain the massive oil slick by placing a riser insertion (a long tube) into the leaking well has failed.5 BP is trying again to fit the riser insertion back into the well. 6 BP continues to pump chemical dispersants at the leak, but this method is showing little success. Fig 1: BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig after the US legislators continue to ask BP initial explosion why they haven’t done more.7 US legislators are frustrated that BP, considered to be a sophisticated company, is using unsophisticated methods to fix a complicated problem. 8 Furthermore, the daily cost of the oil slick is now running at USD 42 million. 9 As BP’s solutions continue to fail, the company is asking for more USG intervention. 10 The USG states that it expects the situation to worsen. 11 The international community has not spoken out about the oil slick. Cuba, a nation which is expected to be affected by the oil slick, refused to comment on the slicks possible threat to their country.12 The oil slick is not expected to land in Mexico. However, the oil slick will have long term implications for the fishing industries of all gulf coast nations. 13 |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 14Source Reliability: LowAnalytical Confidence: MediumAnalytic Confidence: Analytical confidence is medium. The sources used arecurrent, but not very reliable.James E. Gallagher |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 15Department of State Disaster TASK Force Haitian Security |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 16Haiti: Post Earthquake Security Highly Likely To Be AnOngoing IssueExecutive Summary:It is highly unlikely that the Government of Haiti (GOH) will be able to provide longterm security within their country. GOH police are under-strength for the size of thepopulation, under-resourced, poorly trained and riddled with corruption. A suddenwithdrawal of US and MINUSTAH forces would further destabilize the country.Additionally, with the escape of 4000 prisoners from the national prison, crime andgang activity is expected to increase, especially around the distribution stations of food,water and medical aid.14Discussion: The GOH’s role in reconstruction and relief efforts continues to be minimal at best. Displaced Haitians are plagued by a lack of security, theft, violence, rape and gang activity around the tent cities in Port-Au- Prince.15 Currently, security is provided chiefly by US forces and MINUSTAH, with a small detachment of GOH forces.16 Haitians see GOH forces as inadequate and inefficient.17 Haitians express concerns that once US forces depart on 1 June, GOH forces will harass and abuse displaced Haitians. The presence of international military forces has been positive, yet Haitians perceive that the focus of Fig 2: UN peacekeeping international military forces have concentrated on the soldier in Haiti protection of humanitarian workers rather than on Haitians who are at greatest risk from danger.18 However, there has been a sharp increase in the number of Ransoms throughout the country. 19 Although International forces are training Haitian forces, GOH forces remain inadequately trained and equipped.20 Since the January 2010 earthquake, the total number of UN security forces on the ground continues to be at 8,940 troops, while the police force is currently at 3,711.21Source Reliability: HighAnalytical Confidence: Medium |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 17Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is medium due to a large amount ofevidence supporting the estimate. Source reliability is high because the information isderived from USG, UM and Janes Sentinel.James E. Gallagher |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 18Successful Reconstruction Unlikely After US MilitaryDisengages From HaitiExecutive Summary:Successful humanitarian, reconstruction, and security efforts are unlikely to succeed inHaiti after the US military withdraws from the country on 1 June. UN, MINUSTAH,GOH and NGOs are collectively uncoordinated and highly inefficient in carrying outroutine tasks. However, a contingency of 500 US reserves and a small USAID teamoffer a sense of hope among the Haitian populace.Discussion: As the date for US military withdrawal from Haiti draws near, displaced Haitians worry that the Government of Haiti (GOH) lacks the ability to control its internal affairs and is in a permanent state of instability. 22 According to NGOs and the UN, armed gangs in Haiti continue to commit violence against civilians. In some instances these Fig 3: Brazilian MINUSTAH troops breaching a gangs have supplanted the GOH in house certain neighborhoods and are now in control.23 In the absence of NGOs or local officials, gangs hold authority within slum areas and smaller tent camps. Increasingly, orphans are turning towards gangs for security. 24 Doctors Without Borders state there has been a recent spike in the number of gunshot victims. 25 Violence is now increasing even while US military forces are operating in Haiti. Once US forces depart, the problem is expected to further deteriorate. With security issues continuing to mount in Haiti, experts suggest that it is inevitable that the US military will have to redeploy to Haiti. 26 US efforts in Haiti after 1 June will be led by USAID personnel and 500 guardsmen, focusing on building the capacity of the GOH, which includes expanding its sphere of control into areas where lawlessness prevails. 27 The date for US military disengagement could change should a new crisis emerge, especially with so many Haitians still homeless as the rainy season looms.Source Reliability: MediumAnalytical Confidence: High |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 19Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is high due to a large amount of sourcesthat support the estimate. The main source is derived from an NGO (RefugeeInternational). The remaining sources are not as credible but support the estimate.James E. Gallagher |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 20US Relief Efforts Key in Helping HaitiExecutive Summary: It is likely the US will continue to aid and supervise the situation in Haiti until thegovernment of Haiti (GOH) is established and stabilized. USG efforts will be essentialtowards Haiti, to regain the sense of being a normal country. After Haiti was hit by anearthquake in January, the international community stepped up and sent relief aidpackages to save the tiny island nation. The United States went even further by sendingits military force, economic aid, and political officials to help reestablish some level ofcontrol for the GOH.Discussion: Once the Haitians were overwhelmed by the destruction from the earthquake, the US sent down military personal in order to help in the humanitarian efforts. The United States Government (USG) deployed 22,000 personnel, including 7,000 land-based troops, with the remainder operating aboard 58 aircraft and 15 nearby vessels in and around Haiti. 28 As the US is pulling out the remaining troops, it will leave 500 National Guard forces to help rebuild Haiti. 29 US officials have stated that they are not looking to take over Haiti. The US forces are working with United Nations MINUSTAH personal in Haiti to help conduct recovery and relief efforts and logistics and command activities.30 The US responded quickly to the aftermath of the Haitian earthquake. The USG sent financial aid packages to Haiti in order to support Haiti’s recovery and reconstruction campaign. At the Donors Conference in March, the USG pledged 1.15 billion United States Dollars (USD) to Haiti, to support the efforts in rebuilding Haiti. 31 The US has approved legislation that will clear any debts the GOH have developed over the years, and promote trade with certain industries within Haiti, such as textiles.32 Also the USG plans to increase its initial pledge of 1.15 billion USD to Haiti to $3.5 billion over the next five years. 33 After the earthquake struck Haiti, Secretary of State (SoS) Hilary Clinton went to Haiti and promised the Haitians that the US would be helping them recover and rebuild their nation. Former US Presidents Clinton and Bush went to Haiti after the earthquake to help assist in keeping Haiti in the world’s attention. 34 By visiting Haiti, the two former Presidents of the US planned to assist Haiti in its plan to recover and rebuild their nation stronger than before.Source Reliability: MediumAnalytic Confidence: MediumMax Korczyk |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 21Department of State Disaster TASK Force Haitian Corruption |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 22Haiti’s January Earthquake Fueling Further CorruptionExecutive Summary:Most Haitians fail to see any improvements from relief efforts and it is likely suchperceptions can escalate into violent destabilization of the Haitian state. As a result of ahistory of corruption in the Haitian Government, management of relief funding streamsis directed to, managed and dispersed by the Interim Haiti Reconstruction Commission(IHRC). The estimated total earthquake relief and recovery costs for Haiti is $11.5billion for the next ten years. Haitian leaders, bypassed in the relief process, allege lackof transparency by the IHRC and other agencies in accounting of the funds.Discussion: The effects of corruption can be seen on an economic, social, and environmental levels— all of which Haiti has been experiencing. In TIs 2009 ranking, Haiti ranks168th out of 180 countries on the CPI.35 The problem, Haiti has been/is an elitist government run for the benefit of the wealthy at the expense of the nation as a whole. An assessment by the Government of Haiti (GOH), and international assessment, put the cost of recovery at $11.5 billion over the next decade.36 However, donor opinions are divided over whether Haitian officials should be entrusted with spending the money, since corruption is endemic in Haiti, and opportunities for corruption multiply after humanitarian disasters. Donors fear that Haiti’s government is too corrupt and weak to handle an enormous responsibility. The money will be routed thought an Interim Haiti Reconstruction Commission, consisting of a board made up of Haiti’s largest donors, and co-chaired by Haiti’s prime minister and an envoy from the international community. However Haitian leaders are upset the aid money is bypassing them in favor of UN organizations, US agencies, and NGOs. Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive says that the NGOs don’t tell them where the money’s coming from or how they are spending it.37 The NGOs are flooding the local economy with their spending yet, Tatiana Wah38 says she’s not sure she can see any monetary effects in aid. Corruption is occurring as the elite Haitians infiltrate relief agencies helping spending permeate throughout select areas of the economy using it on housing, security, transportation and entertainment.39Such actions provide a fertile social environment to advance and escalate social unrest and lack of faith in the government from its impoverished citizens.Source Reliability: HighAnalytical Confidence: MediumShannon Mae Connors |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 23Inefficient GOH Response Highly Likely Due To CorruptionExecutive Summary:The massive loss of human life from the Haiti quake is highly likely due to corruptionand the lack of preparedness that comes with it. Due to corruption within theGovernment of Haiti (GOH) there was a lack of preparedness in building codes andinitial response. Compared to Chile, Haiti had nonexistent building codes that lead tostructures that would easily topple. Furthermore, Haiti lacks the strong centralgovernment that Chile posses. Unlike Chile who relied on their strong centralgovernment for assistance, Haiti relied on external intervention.Discussion: Although the Chilean quake was more powerful than the one that devastated Haiti, the loss of human life was far less and the countrys infrastructure remains largely intact. Donor governments providing relief money to Haiti know that the island nation suffered far more casualties and damage to their infrastructure due to corruption and the lack of preparedness that comes with Fig 4: Example of a rubber bearing it.40 On the global corruption index put enforced in GOC’s building codes out by Transparency International, Chile ranks 25th and Haiti 168th.41 In addition, the Government of Chile (GOC) forced builders to adhere to rigorous codes, while Haitis corruption and carelessness left such regulation all but nonexistent.42 GOC enforces strong building codes due to Chile’s history of devastating earthquakes. In 1960, Chile suffered the worst earthquake in recorded history, a 9.5 magnitude quake that killed thousands. 43 After a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 1985, Chile established strict building codes that mandated earthquake-proofing for new structures, requiring materials like rubber and features like counterweights be built into the architectural designs to allow buildings to bend and sway rather than break during temblors.44 Haiti, by contrast, allows buildings to rise with little if any input from engineers and sometimes bribes from GOH inspectors.45 Structures have scant reinforcement and are often set on weak foundations. This contrast was demonstrated when 13 of the 15 GOH ministry buildings toppled in the 12 January earthquake.46 Another difference between GOC and GOH is that GOC can divert money from more prosperous areas of its lucrative economy to aid one devastated region.47 Unlike Chile, Haiti does not have a lucrative economy due largely in part to GOH corruption. Haiti defenders argue that Chile can do things right because its more developed. Opponents say that Haitians have it the other way around; Chile is more |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 24 developed because its doing things right.48 Hopefully the Chilean example will encourage donors to make the case that reconstruction efforts is an opportunity to do things correctly in Haiti.Source Reliability: MediumAnalytical Confidence: HighAnalytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is High due to a large amount of evidencesupporting the estimate. Although all the sources are of medium reliability, theobservable outcome between both disasters is vast.James E. Gallagher |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 25Elections in Haiti Needed for ChangeExecutive Summary:In order to inhibit the current political instability within Haiti, it is likely the 2010election will take place. For without the upcoming elections the people of Haiti willcontinue to mistrust the Haitian government.Discussion: The GOH sustained heavy losses in the January 12th earthquake. Government buildings and many government officials were lost in the devastation. The response by the GOH to the earthquake was little due to poor relief infrastructure and corruption throughout the government. Current President Rene Preval announced that if elections cannot take place in November, he will remain in office pass February, when his term officially ends. 49 Preval doesn’t want to leave the presidency if no candidate is voted to take over which could also lead to more instability within the government. Haitians have already voice that they want foreign powers to lead in the reconstruction of their country, but the International community wants the GOH to take responsibility showing that the GOH can handle issues with support from the International community. 50 The people of Haiti have mistrusted their government for quite some time and they will continue until they see and feel that there is change and improvement. When President Preval announced that he would continue serving as president if no elections take place in November, 2,000 demonstrators protested outside the ruins of the National Palace.51 Officials who are trying to see that the elections take place in November are facing adversity due to the destruction of the election agencys headquarters and records and killed or displaced about 1.6 million voters.52 With a new president in office, the pressure put on by the people would reduce and a new beginning for Haiti will have taken a step forward in the right direction.Source Reliability: MediumAnalytic Confidence: MediumAnalytic Confidence: The analyst’s confidence is a medium due to the reports readand analyze. Elections would help Haiti in a step progressing forward, but if theelections cannot take place Preval will remain in office pass his official term end date.These civil protestors will continue and may eventually cause civil unrest in Haiti.Max Korczyk |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 26Department of State Disaster TASK ForceHaiti: Short, MID AND Long Term |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 27Rainy Season Likely to Further Weaken GOHExecutive Summary:The rainy season is likely to further weaken the government (GOH) as it continues torecover from the January earthquake. The GOH is working to improve and developtemporary housing. However, the GOH could face another disaster due to an ineffectivegovernment, poor conditions of the relocation camps, and mistrust between thegovernment and people.Discussion: The GOH has been ineffective for a long time now which can be seen by corruption within the government. The inability of the GOH to spend aid money it was given clearly indicates how ineffective the GOH is. Poor negotiations with private landowners to set up relocation camps for those in danger of the upcoming rainy season took months to settle and slowed down construction on temporary housing. 53 Another key factor in showing that the GOH is weak is when the aid began to flow into Haiti to help the Haitians, much of the money went through the government, which had no relief control infrastructure set up and some government officials pocketed the money. 54 The GOH has about 700,000 people to look after and find areas to relocate them to. Many Haitians who now live in the many tent-camp communities, set up outside Port-au-Prince, don’t want to leave. Rape, robbery, and fear keep displaced Haitians from leaving their families and friends behind and go the relocation camps the government has set up.55 Even with the terrible living conditions within these communities, people would rather stay put than move to areas in the rural part of the country. Another issue compelling the Haitians to stay put is that these new relocation camps set up by the government contain very little sanitary methods, which also allows for the threat of disease within the camps. The GOH have relocated about 7,500 people into new camps, but these camps are inadequate to support the people. Before the earthquake the Haitian people already had a sense of mistrust towards their government. Now as, the GOH tries to relocate two million Haitians who were displaced by the earthquake, as the rainy season looms closer. These displaced Haitians now live in 1,300 makeshift camps throughout Haiti and at least 29 refugee camps are in areas vulnerable to rains and flooding.56 The Haitians trust the US government more than their own, which will cause a problem in trying to relocate those who cannot believe their government is trying to save them from the rains.Source Reliability: MediumAnalytic Confidence: High |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 28Max KorczykGOH/UN Cooperation With NGOs UnlikelyExecutive Summary:It is unlikely that relief action will be carried out effectively due to lack of coordinationand communication between NGOs, the UN and GOH. Nearly 10,000 NGOs areoperating in Haiti alongside the UN and US military. Communication and meetingswith relief coordinators is almost impossible because of mass un-organization due tostresses over leadership and where certain organizations can or cannot operate. This iscausing the NGOs and GOH/UN to give more aid than is necessary resulting in Haitibecoming too dependent on foreign aid.Discussion: According to a World Bank report on Haiti there are currently at least 10,000 non- governmental organizations (NGOs) operating in Haiti.57 This is the highest number per capita than any other country in the world. NGO organizations such as Partners in Health, the Red Cross, and UNICEF have been and continue to provide service for quake victims, however despite the good intentions there are problems within the NGO aid system. NGO Refugees International58 went to Haiti in February to study how the overall relief effort was proceeding. They reported that coordination and communication between GOH and UN and international NGOs are missing, with both sectors operating along similar and disconnected lines.59 This is due to local organizations not being able to access the meetings at the UN compound in Port-au-Prince, where UN agencies and international NGOs have established task-specific groups for communication, discuss specific needs, and coordinate activities in order to avoid overlap and maximize outreach and coverage of a response.60 So far, the relief effort in Haiti has only manage to provide 270,000 people with basic shelters and more than 1 million people still have little to no access to food and water.61 The effectiveness of the NGOs relies on the rapid action of the UN and U.S. military escorts that are seen as essential for distribution and safety. The International Donors Conference, held in late March, said that Haiti has become too reliant on international NGOs to provide basic services to citizens and it is hurting the country more than it is helping it.62Source Reliability: MediumAnalytic Confidence: MediumShannon Mae Connors |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 29Short-term Reconstruction Not Likely To Start SoonExecutive Summary:It is likely that the short-term reconstruction in Haiti will not begin until the end of theAtlantic hurricane season, towards the end of November 2010. In order for the short-term reconstruction begins humanitarian efforts in Haiti need to end. The 2010hurricane season has been forecasted to be above-average and may cause furtherdamage and heighten humanitarian need.Discussion: The UN member states along with international partners have pledged $5.3 billion to Haiti over the next eighteen months, short-term assistance to begin Haiti’s path to long-term recovery. The plan for the next 18 months covers the end of the emergency period and includes preparation for projects to generate genuine restoration. 63 Plans for short/ long-term reconstruction have been established; however the date to start recovery efforts has yet to be determined. Donors have pledged $9.9 billion towards an additional third year and beyond. 64 None the less the start dates for short-term reconstruction efforts are not fixed. Asked when the reconstruction efforts would start, UN officials stated that reconstruction efforts begin when humanitarian aid ends. The international community must get the humanitarian relief side right as well Haiti won’t have the foundation for the successful longer term recovery. With the start of the rainy and hurricane season (a total of six months starting June 1 and ending November 30.)65 Humanitarian aid is crucial, says Edward Mulet.66 Researchers at the University of Colorado forecast the 2010 hurricane season to be above-average. 67 Research has shown the chance that the Caribbean as a whole will be hit by a major hurricane is 58 percent.68 This is above the normal 42 percent probability of the past century, according to their study conducted in December. 69 Even if the hurricane does not strike Haiti the offset of the hurricanes rain and high winds will cause problems. If more devastation is done to Haiti and additional humanitarian aid is required, than it will take longer than planned to start on the short-term reconstruction.Source Reliability: HighAnalytic Confidence: MediumShannon Mae Connors |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 30Haitians Increasingly Unlikely to Support GOH LeadReconstructionExecutive Summary:It is highly unlikely the Haitian populace will strongly support GOH lead reconstructionefforts. Haitians perceive that reconstruction money coming into Haiti as benefiting thecountrys wealthy minority rather than the vast mass of quake victims. Popular supportfor Haitian President René Préval is dropping considerably, and an impending politicalcrisis is rapidly corroding the legitimacy in the Préval government.Discussion: Groups that once supported Haitian President, René Préval, are arming themselves against the Government of Haiti (GOH), putting the country in danger of further instability and political violence. 70 Préval’s declining legitimacy and the lack of any obvious successor for a smooth handover of political power is further destabilizing the country.71 Haitian anger is driven chiefly by the perception that what aid and money is entering Haiti Fig 5: Haitian man fights with a GOH is benefiting the countrys wealthy police officer minority instead of the poor who were largely affected by the quake.72 Haitian anger towards the GOH also stems from the increased efforts to relocate a number of the large tent camps, which is resented by many of the residents.73 An Oxfam survey indicates Haitians would prefer an “occupation" to manage the countrys recovery rather than the GOH.74 The survey also revealed that fewer than 7% of Haitians wanted their government to manage reconstruction on its own. While nearly 25% thought that the GOH could work together with the UN, US and other NGOs, but nearly 40% wanted the control of Haiti reconstruction to fall to a foreign government.75 In a separate question fewer than half of the respondents believed that the international community would follow through on its pledge to rebuild Haiti. As far as most Haitians are concerned, the GOH has abandoned them. 76Source Reliability: MediumAnalytical Confidence: MediumAnalytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is medium due to the minimum amountof sources that support the estimate. The main source is almost a month old. However,current sources reaffirm the estimate. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 31James E. Gallagher |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 32US Forces Highly Likely to Return to HaitiExecutive Summary:Due to the upcoming hurricane season and political instability, it is highly likely that theUS will redeploy into Haiti. The US has aided Haiti through military and financialsupport. With the June 1 US withdraw of military forces fast approaching, the GOH willbe led by the MINUSTAH and the National Haitian Police force, which will furtherpress instability throughout the country.Discussion: The rainy season began on 1 May in Haiti and certain camps of displaced Haitians are flooded. The rainfall has already reached four inches in Port-au-Prince. 77 With a limited amount of time and inadequate command and control, the GOH will not be able to support the people of Haiti, which will cause the US military to redeploy into Haiti. Also weather forecasters have predicted a 2010 hurricane season will be tough on Haiti through a predicted 10 storms.78 Many people who still reside in tent communities around Port-au-Prince have nowhere else to go due to the government’s inefficiency in locating new areas, not in danger of the rains and upcoming hurricane season. Shelters are being built in order to protect the people from hurricane conditions but with little time and number of shelters to build for those living in the tent communities will not be ready in time. 79 Haitian President Rene Preval announced that if the upcoming elections in November don’t take place, he will remain in office pass his official end term date.80 This was received by the Haitian population with anger as demonstrators protested outside the ruins of the National Palace which had to be quelled down with help of riot police. 81 The people believed that President Preval responded too slowly to the earthquake and the aftermath that ensured.82 This pressure on the government will lead to more instability in a weak government which will struggle to maintain order. Also looking into perspective is the International community impact if the US has to return to Haiti. The International Community has pledged USD 5 billion over the next two years. 83Source Reliability: MediumAnalytic Confidence: MediumAnalytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is medium. Due to limited resources onInternational impact on the International Community if US returns to Haiti, analyticconfidence is medium on what will be the international impact on the IC will be.Max Korczyk |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 33Long-Term Reconstruction Unlikely Effective Without EffectiveLeadershipExecutive Summary:If Haiti does not set up an effective leadership it is unlikely that long-termreconstruction and stabilization will improve the state. Due to disregard in the past theinternational community plans to observe long- term reconstruction that is predicted tolast for 10 years fallowing 18 months of short-term reconstruction. The Haitian statecannot recover on its own due to extreme structural vulnerability. Haitian leaders willrequire the help of the UN and international organizations to help create an effectiveleadership. In addition the UN will continue to focus on humanitarian assistance tofurther a stabilize Haiti.Discussion: The aftermath of the earthquake in Haiti exposed the countries extreme structural vulnerability as a state. In the past, billions of dollars given for aid did not make a considerable difference in helping Haiti.84 At the International Donors Conference in March over 60 countries and institutions pledged to help assist Haiti during its long- term recovery process.85 To assure safety of the $9.9 billion yielded to Haiti long-term reconstruction an anti- corruption unit within the Interim Commission. 86 It is important that during reconstruction the Haitian leaders and people assume responsibility for their nation. This way Haiti can become a self reliant state in the future. For this to happen the GOH will be closely coordinating with the UN and IC. The stability of the Haitian state will not succeed without effective leadership from its people, and to further the reconstruction the EU role will be secondary. 87 The UN will be also expected to continue to focus on the immediate humanitarian assistance in Haiti. 88 Help providing a stable environment for Haitians and allow for long-term rebuilding efforts.Source Reliability: HighShannon Mae Connors |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 34Web 2.0 Likely Crucial in Future Disaster InformationDisseminationExecutive Summary:Due to recent natural and man-made disasters it is highly likely that the use of Web 2.0is playing a pivotal role in current and future communication updates and futureinformation collection. Social media and social networking platforms are increasing inpopularity and use. Recent major emergencies resulted in official and press reportingutilization of Web 2.0 tools to support consequence management operations. Web 2.0 isa decision support tool that provides decision makers the ability to act in real-time/ nearreal-time there by reducing the reaction time after the disaster.Discussion: Web 2.0 is web-based networks that allow its users to interact with other users or to change website content, in contrast to non-interactive websites where users are limited to the passive viewing of information that is provided to them.89 has become one of the first places where millions react to large-scale catastrophes. A presentation by Jeannett Sutton at the 2009 World Conference of Disaster Management gives thorough data about information dissemination though social media and networking systems. 90 Through a survey Sutton and fellow researchers91 found that people went to Web 2.0 sources for accurate and up-to-date information. 92 Since the introduction of Web 2.0 social platforms continue to grow in popularity and are used around the world in natural disaster cases like the 2009 earthquake in China, and the Southern California wildfires. The Haiti earthquake in January highlighted the importance of social platforms in major emergencies. Over 24 hours after the quake, networkers and news organizations turned to Web 2.0 tools to share and gather information on Twitter93, YouTube94, Skype95, and Facebook96. The government and mainstream news organizations are now using social platforms to collect information in the aftermath of disasters. Government organizations like FEMA have been engaging in Web 2.0 tools nationwide as part of its mission to prepare the nation for disasters. DOS is looking towards utilizing social platforms to search for US citizens in disaster stricken countries. These social platforms are valuable because there’s a lot of information flowing between people because it’s a decentralized network. These systems are able to transmit information directly from those who are experiencing the disaster in real time and to those who can provide help in real time, without editing or delay.Source Reliability: HighShannon Mae Connors |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 35US Efforts Likely to Continue after Pull-OutExecutive Summary:Despite the US military pull out of Haiti on June 1 st, it is likely US forces will continueefforts in Haiti. With certain military forces in Haiti providing humanitarian efforts,continuation of financial support, and political support, US efforts towards Haiti willbring Haiti closer to a sense of stability.Discussion: 1 June is the official pull-put date for remaining US troops in Haiti. 97 National Guard units will perform humanitarian efforts such as reconstruction projects and medical training assistance throughout a five month period.98 This step by the United States Government (USG) demonstrates that the military mission is over and the humanitarian mission begins. Also another success would be the flexibility of the US military as they deployed 22,000 soldiers to Haiti in the beginning. 99 The US Congress has been working to pass bills creating more financial support towards Haiti. With bills intended on supporting trade with Haiti and promoting industries with Haiti. 100 Along with bills and trade agreements the USG will continue overseeing aid and humanitarian efforts in Haiti. USG plans to create an international trust fund for Haiti which would support investment in infrastructure including the development of electricity grids, roads, water and sanitation facilities, and reforestation initiatives in Haiti. 101 Haitian elections were suppose to take place in February, but were cancelled due to devastation caused by the earthquake. Haitian elects have been schedule for November of this year, but the GOH is struggling to obtain voting records and distribute ballots to the 1.6 displaced Haitians.102 To help support the Haitians in the electoral system, the US along with the International Community pledged technical, logistical and material support to help Haiti hold timely elections. 103Source Reliability: MediumAnalytic Confidence: MediumAnalytic Confidence: Analyst confidence is medium due to sources which wereresearched.Max Korczyk |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 36 Link Chart (Haiti Node only)Note: This is only from the Haiti node ofthe link chart. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 37Department of State Disaster TASK Force Scene Setter |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 38Meeting with Special Representative and Head of the UnitedNations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) EdmondMuletScene Setter:Since 1993, the UN has played a key role in providing security and legitimacy to theGovernment of Haiti (GOH). In September 1993, the UN Security Council establishedits first peacekeeping operation in the country. However, due to a lack of cooperationwith Haitian military authorities, the operation was not successful. Throughout the late1990’s, there were several UN peacekeeping missions deployed to Haiti. Initially, thesemissions were tasked with restoring a democratic government. However, due tocontinuing political crisis and a lack of stability in the country, serious reforms nevertook hold. Following the 12 January earthquake that devastated Haiti, all progress madeby previous UN peacekeeping missions was lost and MINUSTAH’s headquarters wasdestroyed. Furthermore, the missions chief,Hédi Annabi of Tunisia, was killed in thequake. With the death of Hédi Annabi, theformer head of MINUSTAH and currentAssistant Secretary-General for PeacekeepingOperations, Edmond Mulet, became theorganizations Special Representative andinterim head of MINUSTAH.104 With USmilitary forces disengaging from Haiti on 1June 2010, MINUSTAH will take the lead rolein providing security and humanitarian aid inHaiti. MINUSTAH’s main objective is to Fig 6: The current head of the Unitedmaintain stability in the region and assist the Nations Stabilization Mission in HaitiHaitian Nation Police in providing security (MINUSTAH) Edmund Muletwithin the country.Topic:The objective of the meeting is to discuss the US role in Haiti after formal militaryoperations end on 1 June. Another topic will be how US and MINUSTAH forces cancreate a legitimate, self sufficient democracy in Haiti that is not constantly relying onforeign governments for aid or support.Short Biography of Edmund Mulet:Edmund Mulet is a Guatemalan diplomat who was educated in Guatemala, Canada, theUS and Switzerland.105 He is currently the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of MINUSTAH. Mulet assumed the position of acting head ofMINUSTAH in the immediate aftermath of the 2010 Haiti earthquake in which theprevious head of mission, Hédi Annabi of Tunisia, died. Prior to the Haitian earthquake, |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 39Mulet was the Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations and Head ofthe Office of Operations since August 2007. Formerly, he was Guatemalas ambassadorto the European Union, the Kingdom of Belgium and Luxembourg.106 Prior to this, hewas a member of Guatemala’s National Congress (GNC) for approximately 12 yearsand served one term as president of the GNC. During Mulet’s years in the Guatemalanlegislature, he was involved in the Central American peace process and the Guatemalanpeace negotiations.107Talking Points:  The US thanks MINUSTAH for their efforts to help the Haitian people and for MINUSTAHs continued work in providing security and legitimacy to the GOH.  The US wants to assure a smooth transition between US military forces and MINSTAH when logistical, security and humanitarian responsibilities are transferred over to MINUSTAH/UN forces on 1 June.  We want to emphasize that the internal problems within the GOH must be rooted out if there is any hope for Haiti to become a legitimate self sufficient democracy. Although the US wants to support Haiti, we do not want Haiti to always be reliant on foreign powers for aid or support.  We want to encourage MINUSTAH to progressively wean the reliance of GOH security forces away from MINUSTAH and foreign security forces so that GOH security forces can become self reliant and not dependent upon foreign powers.  The US wants to encourage MINUSTAH to crack down on the recent spike in organized crime and gang violence. The most likely solution to this problem is via humanitarian aid to areas that have not yet been adequately reached. It is hoped that humanitarian aid will reduce the perceived need for gangs and reduce crimes.  We are worried about the recent spike in the number of humanitarian workers who are kidnapped and held for ransom. We propose that MINUSTAH and GOH forces provide more adequate security for these humanitarian workers.James E. Gallagher |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 40Secretary of State Meeting with Maj. Gen. Simeon G. Trombitas,Newly Anointed Commander of Joint Task Force-HaitiScene Setter:The major earthquake that hit Haiti on 12 January left the island nation reeling indestruction of its buildings and a death toll in the thousands. With the government ofHaiti (GOH) inadequate to handle the rescueand recovery operations, the US along withthe International Community came to Haiti’said. The US sent in military forces to help inlogistics and relief and recovery operations.The UN along with US came together inMarch to hold a Donor Conference for Haiti,in which the International Communitypledged financial support to Haiti. Now fourmonths after the earthquake and US hassteadily been reducing the troops in Haiti,with the official pull-out date set for Junefirst. The US will use 500 National Guards tocontinue humanitarian efforts in Haiti, in anew operation called “New Horizons”. Fig 5: Major General Simeon G.Topic: Tromitas, Commander of Joint TaskThe objective of the meeting is to discuss the Force- HaitiUS role in Haiti after formal militaryoperations end on 1 June.Short Biography of Maj. Gen. Simeon G. Trombitas:Before being appointed to commander of the Joint Task Force-Haiti, Major GeneralTrombitas was commander of the US South Army since November ninth of last year.Before that, he was the special assistant to the commanding general of Army SpecialOperations Command at Fort Bragg, N.C.108 Simeon G. Trombitas graduated from theU.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York, in 1978 with a bachelor in science.109His first assignment was with the 2nd Armored Division. He has commanded the U.S.Special Operations Command in Korea and the U.S. Military Group in Colombia.110Talking Points:  The Louisiana National Guard forces remaining in Haiti will help out in humanitarian and reconstruction efforts.  The other US National Guard forces will participate in aviation security and work together with the Haitian Police forces. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 41  The roles of the United Nations MINUSTAH and the Haitian Police Force will be critical in assuming responsibilities once the remaining US military forces pull-out.  It is critical for MINUSTAH and the remaining US military forces after 1 June to adequately coordinate and communicate to provide effective security and humanitarian efforts.  The operation “New Horizons” covers humanitarian efforts. Is there a possibility that these National Guards forces will stay beyond the end date of the operation which concludes in September.Max Korczyk |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 42Secretary of State Meeting with Under-Secretary-General forHumanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, SirJohn HolmesScene Setter:Immediately following the 12 January earthquake in Haiti, the UNEP/Office for theCoordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Joint Environment Unit was monitoringthe situation closely and teams were on standby to assist with the forthcoming recoveryefforts. OCHA held and organized a chaired Member States briefing on the HaitiRevised Humanitarian Appeal on 22 February. 111 On behalf of the HumanitarianCoordinator, OCHA also manages the Emergency Relief Response Fund for Haiti. Asof 24 February there are currently 37 OCHA staff members in Haiti that specializes inhumanitarian affairs, information management, needs and assessments, donor relationsand reporting.112 These staff members monitorand update on the humanitarian and recoveryefforts.Topic:The objective of the meeting is to discuss thecurrent humanitarian affairs and the emergencyrelief taking place in Haiti.Short Biography of Sir John Holmes:Awarded a knighthood in 1999, Sir JohnsHolmes is a career diplomat who was born inPreston, in the north of England, and receivedhis higher education from Balliol College, Sir John Holmes, Under-Secretary- 113 General for Humanitarian AffairsOxford. He was appointed on 1 March 2007 and Emergency Relief Coordinatoras the Under-Secretary- General forHumanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, by Secretary –General BanKi-moon. Before his appointment Mr. Holmes was the British Ambassador in Parisfrom October 2001 to February 2007. He served in a wide range of posts and rolesduring his career in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) since 1973, and wasappointed as a temporary second secretary at the British Embassy in Moscow returningto London in 1887 as Assistant Head of the Soviet Department in the FCO.114 In 1995he was head of the European Union Department in the FCO but then switched tobecome the Private Secretary (Overseas Affairs) and Diplomatic Advisor to formerPrime Minister John Major.115Talking Points:  The relocation of displaced people to areas at high risk for flooding.  The efficiency of emergency shelters being built to withstand the upcoming hurricane season for the 1.2 million homeless and displaced Haitian people. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 43  Collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Agriculture cluster members on seed distributions for helping the agricultural sector.  The areas of Haiti that do not have health care coverage and are still being identified.  The use of Emergency Telecommunications (ETC) between humanitarian work areas and their coverage.Shannon Mae Connors |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 44Department of State Disaster TASK Force Annex 3Earthquake Affected Areas And population Movement in Haiti |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • Note: Population movements indicated include only individuals utilizing GOH-provided transportation and do not include peopleleaving Port-au-Prince utilizing private means of transport. Both maps are accurate as of 7 May 2010. Source:http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/countries/haiti/template/maps/fy2010/haiti_05072010.pdf 17 May 2010|T he|Depa r tment of Sta te P a g e | 45
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 46 Department of State Disaster TASK Force Annex 4USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO HAITI FOR THE EARTHQUAKE |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • This map shows the location and activity of USG and NGO organizations in Haiti. Note: Both maps are accurate as of 7 May 2010Source:http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/countries/haiti/template/maps/fy2010/haiti_05072010.pdf 17 May 2010 |T he Depa r tment of Sta te | P a g e | 47
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 48 Department of State Disaster TASK Force Annex 5Who Haitians think Should Carry Out Reconstruction |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 49Who Haitians think Should Carry Out ReconstructionSource: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval This survey was carried out by Oxfam. The Sample size was 1,700 displaced Haitians. 7% Haitians that wanted their government to manage reconstruction on its own Haitians that thought the GOH 40% 25% could work together with the local authorities and community organizations Haitians that wanted the control of Haiti reconstruction to fall to a foreign government |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 50Department of State Disaster TASK Force Annex 6Location of Congested camps in Port-Au-Prince and possible spontaneous settlement sites |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • Location of Congested camps in Port-Au-Prince and possible spontaneous settlement sites. Note: Accurate as of 16 February 2010 Source: http://ochadms.unog.ch/cap- exchange.nsf/0/D5F63279A726B4EDC12576C E00466B1C/$FILE/HAITI_HUMANITARIAN%20A PPEAL_2010_small%20size.pdf 17 May 2010|T heDepa r tment of Sta te| P a g e | 51
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 52 Department of State Disaster TASK Force Annex 7Location of WFP Food Distribution Centers in Port-Au-Prince |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • Location of WFP Food Distribution Centers in Port-Au-Prince. Note: Accurate as of 16 February 2010 17 May 2010|T heDepa r tment of Sta te| Source: http://ochadms.unog.ch/cap- exchange.nsf/0/D5F63279A726B4EDC12 576CE00466B1C/$FILE/HAITI_HUMANIT P a g e | 53 ARIAN%20APPEAL_2010_small%20size.p df
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 54Department of State Disaster TASK Force Annex 8The location of the Oil slick incomparison the gulf of Mexico current |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 55 Source: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/definitions/loop current.gifArea of the oil spill as of May 4 2010 |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 56Department of State Disaster TASK Force Annex 9 Contact INFORMATION |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 57 Contact Information Please feel free to contact the analysts with any questions or comments concerning this briefing book.James E. GallagherE: jgalla79@mercyhurst.eduT: 240-432-3489A: 119 Driscoll WayGaithersburg MD 20878Max KorczykE: mkorcz28@mercyhurst.eduT: 815-388-2008A: 1715 Bull Ridge DriveMcHenry Illinois 60060Shannon ConnorsE: sconno86@mercyhurst.eduT: 703-627-9230A: 7712 Otaku LaneFlagstaff Arizona 86001 |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 58Department of State Disaster TASK Force Annex 10 Acknowledgments |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 59 Acknowledgments We want to thank Professor Mills for guiding us through the process of creatingthis guidebook. Without him, this briefing book would have never been possible. Thankyou. -The Department of State Team- |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 60Department of State Disaster TASK Force Annex 11 Imagery Sourcing |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 61 Imagery SourcingFigure 1: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/05/08/article-1275355-094A753D000005DC-436_468x286.jpgFigure 2:http://i.pbase.com/g6/82/643382/2/74706503.Ywkcw7s2.jpgFigure 3: http://www.dominionpaper.ca/files/dominion-img/p76.jpgFigure 4:http://trendsupdates.com/the-worlds-biggest-earth-quake-proof-building-is-an-airport/Figure 5:http://www.sfbayview.com/wp-content/uploads/haiti-school-collapse-relative-vs-police-110908-by-ramon-espinosa-ap1.jpgFigure6:http://downloads.unmultimedia.org/cms/radio/content/uploads/2009/12/full/mullet.jpgFigure 7: http://www.dodlive.mil/files/2010/03/20100331_Trombitas_photo-120x150.jpgFigure 8: http://worldradio.ch/wrs/bm~pix/holmes-gaza~s600x600.jpg |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 62 Department of State Disaster TASK Force Annex 12 Endnotes Endnotes |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 631 http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=3033389#ixzz0o3rkGiai2 http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=3033389#ixzz0o3rkGiai3 http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=3033389#ixzz0o3rkGiai4 http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=3033389#ixzz0o3rkGiai5 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/15/AR2010051503543.html6 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/15/AR2010051503543.html7 http://cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2010/05/13/ac.markey.oil.spill.cnn8 http://cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2010/05/13/ac.markey.oil.spill.cnn9 http://www.vancouversun.com/news/cleanup+effort+employs+small+city/3031650/story.html#ixzz0o3QGCduL10 http://www.military-technologies.net/2010/05/05/bp-requests-for-military-technology-to-contain-oil-spill/11 http://www.politico.com/blogs/politicolive/0510/Admiral_Allen_says_the_entire_Gulf_pretty_much_has_to_be_on_guard_as_oil_spill_could_worsen.html?showall12 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jbi5uWbOVPuqck1GxL0Y1baSG58AD9FIQRK0013 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-29/oil-spill-imperils-gulf-coast-fishing-industry-update1-.html14 http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/CACS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Haiti&Prod_Name=CACS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/cacsu/haits010.htm@current15 http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/countries/haiti/template/fs_sr/fy2010/haiti_eq_fs49_04-09-2010.pdf16 http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/countries/haiti/template/fs_sr/fy2010/haiti_eq_fs50_04-16-2010.pdf17 http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/haiti-ground18 http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/haiti-ground19 http://www.heritagekonpa.com/Abductions%20for%20ransom%20soar%20in%20Haiti.htm20 http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/CACS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Haiti&Prod_Name=CACS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/cacsu/haits010.htm@current21 http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/CACS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Haiti&Prod_Name=CACS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/cacsu/haits010.htm@current22 http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/dominican-republic-haiti-and-us-shared-responsibility-protect-refugees23 http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/dominican-republic-haiti-and-us-shared-responsibility-protect-refugees24 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gV04s7vQYfbITT2t_YKym-ePvYaw25 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gV04s7vQYfbITT2t_YKym-ePvYaw26 http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2010/0413/As-Michelle-Obama-visits-Haiti-US-military-plans-June-exit27 http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2010/0413/As-Michelle-Obama-visits-Haiti-US-military-plans-June-exit28 http://media-newswire.com/release_1118144.html29 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5idZiVQhHcyG1gpBjzXaAmmk4_OtAD9FIFPL30 http://newsblaze.com/story/20100421152621stat.nb/topstory.html31 http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/03/31/haiti.donors/index.html32 http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=5132933 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5idZiVQhHcyG1gpBjzXaAmmk4_OtAD9FH0JBG134 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8580641.stm35 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8502616.stm |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 6436 http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100331/FOREIGN/703309889/113537 http://www.3news.co.nz/Haiti---wheres-the-aid-money-going/tabid/417/articleID/145000/Default.aspx38 Tatiana Wah is a Haitian planning expert at Columbia University who is living in Petionville andworking as an advisor to Haiti’s government.39 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/28/world/americas/28haitipoor.html40 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html41 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html#ixzz0nbXTQItR42 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html43 http://theweek.com/article/index/200198/Quake_comparison_Chile_vs_Haiti44 http://theweek.com/article/index/200198/Quake_comparison_Chile_vs_Haiti45 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html46 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html47 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html#ixzz0nbXTQItR48 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html#ixzz0nbXTQItR49 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwf2qI3IKG5boz7QbfojxijnkDgQD9FH3VK0050 http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN282204332010032851 http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CB_HAITI_PROTESTS?SITE=RIPAW&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT52 http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CB_HAITI_PROTESTS?SITE=RIPAW&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT53 http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/03/19/heavy-rains-sweeping-away-screaming-haitians-homeless-camps/54 http://www.probeinternational.org/foreign-aid/rebuilding-haiti-depends-redeveloping-haiti%E2%80%99s-government55 http://www.worldvision.org/content.nsf/about/20100212-haiti-survivors56 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/16/AR2010031603831.html57 http://www.mantlethought.org/content/haiti-putting-ngos-their-place58 Refugees International advocates for lifesaving assistance and protection for displaced people andpromotes solutions to displacement crises. http://www.refintl.org/who-we-are59 http://reason.com/blog/2010/03/12/ngos-falling-short-in-haiti60 http://reason.com/blog/2010/03/12/ngos-falling-short-in-haiti61 http://www.counterpunch.org/smith02242010.html62 http://www.mantlethought.org/content/haiti-putting-ngos-their-place63 http://www.haiticonference.org/Haiti_Action_Plan_ENG.pdf64 http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/03/139336.htm65 The Atlantic hurricane season is from 1 June to 30 November, however the Atlantic Oceanographicand Metrological Laboratory (AOML) states, “hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, butthese dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity.”http://travelwithkids.about.com/gi/o.htm?zi=1/XJ&zTi=1&sdn=travelwithkids&cdn=travel&tm=219&f=00&su=p974.3.168.ip_&tt=13&bt=0&bts=1&st=24&zu=http%3A//www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G1.html66 http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/international/Haiti_humanitarian_need_competes_with_recovery_plan.html?cid=857924067 Colorado State Universitys (CSU) top hurricane expert William Gray and team forecast the Atlantichurricane season.http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iXGQ1L9LOEqjUqEzJUs8ABF4lGjw68 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iXGQ1L9LOEqjUqEzJUs8ABF4lGjw69 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iXGQ1L9LOEqjUqEzJUs8ABF4lGjw70 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 6571 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwf2qI3IKG5boz7QbfojxijnkDgQD9FH3VK0072 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval73 http://article.wn.com/view/2010/04/11/Haiti_begins_relocating_quake_victims_ahead_of_rains/74 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval75 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval76 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval77 http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/31508/rainy-season-in-full-swing-for.asp78 http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/31508/rainy-season-in-full-swing-for.asp79 http://content.usatoday.com/communities/kindness/post/2010/04/as-haitis-hurricane-season-approaches-international-aid-organizations-rush-to-provide-emergency-shelter-kits/180 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwf2qI3IKG5boz7QbfojxijnkDgQD9FH3VK0081 http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CB_HAITI_PROTESTS?SITE=RIPAW&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT82 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N28214256.htm83 http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2010-03-31/un-donor-conference-haiti-reconstruction-aid84 http://www.euractiv.com/en/foreign-affairs/helping-build-haitis-long-term-future-analysis-39598685 http://www.haiticonference.org/Haiti_Action_Plan_ENG.pdf86 Anti-corruption unit co-chairs are Haitian Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive and former PresidentClinton acting as liaison for the UN.87 http://www.euractiv.com/en/foreign-affairs/helping-build-haitis-long-term-future-analysis-39598688 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/esther-brimmer/rebuilding-haiti-a-global_b_528790.html88Endnotes89 According to Prashant Sharma, Web 2.0 is web-based communities, hosted services, web applications,social-networking sites, video-sharing sites, wikis, blogs, mashups, and folksonomies.http://www.techpluto.com/web-20-services/90 http://www.emergencymgmt.com/safety/The-Public-Uses-Social-Networking.html91 Palen and Irina Shklovs, postdoctoral researchers at the University of California at Irvine.92 This survey was developed for the evacuation of San Diego during the Southern California wildfires of2007.93 Twitter, is a social networking and microblogging service that enables its users to send and readmessages known as tweets. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/15/hacker-exposes-private-twitter-documents/?hpw.94 YouTube, the hugely popular video-sharing site owned by Google.http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/worldagenda/2010/01/100122_worldagenda_haiti_monitoring.shtml95 Skype, is a software application that allows users to make voice calls over the Internet. Can be with orwithout video. http://about.skype.com/96 Facebook, is a social media and networking site.97 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5idZiVQhHcyG1gpBjzXaAmmk4_OtAD9FIFPL98 http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/library/news/2010/05/sec-100513-afps02.htm99 http://www.army.mil/-news/2010/05/13/39011-joint-task-force-haiti-set-to-complete-mission-june-1/100 http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100507/pl_afp/haitiquakeuspoliticsaid_20100507142809101 http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20100415-264384/US-Congress-passes-Haiti-debt-relief-bill102 http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/may/11/haiti-protesters-blast-earthquake-response/103 http://www.newkerala.com/news/fullnews-106487.html104 http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=33499&Cr=haiti&Cr1=105 http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sga1228.doc.htm |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  • 17 May 2010 P a g e | 66106 http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sga1228.doc.htm107 http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sga1228.doc.htm108 http://www.sofmag.com/wp/2010/04/trombitas-takes-command-of-jtf-haiti/109 http://www.defense.gov/Blog_files/Blog_assets/20100330_Trombitas_bio.pdf110 http://blogs.nyu.edu/blogs/agc282/zia/TROMBITAS,%20Simeon%20G.%20Brig.%20Gen.-4.pdf111 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/unep/126344964565.htm112 http://ochaonline.un.org/tabid/6412/language/en-US/Default.aspx113 http://ochaonline.un.org/OCHAHome/AboutUs/TheUSGERC/tabid/5844/language/en-US/Default.aspx114 http://ochaonline.un.org/OCHAHome/AboutUs/TheUSGERC/tabid/5844/language/en-US/Default.aspx115 http://ochaonline.un.org/OCHAHome/AboutUs/TheUSGERC/tabid/5844/language/en-US/Default.aspx |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |