Les investissements chinois à l’étranger depuis 2010

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Une étude de A Capital Dragon Index

Une étude de A Capital Dragon Index

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  • 1. DRAGON INDEX ™ 2011 Full YearHow fast is China Globalizing:Tracking Chinese Outbound InvestmentsThe A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEXTM is the first index tracking Chinese outbound investments globally.It aims to be the reference indicator of Chinese ODI and will track the globalization rate of theChinese economy since WTO accession in 2001. It is published quarterly by A CAPITAL own researchteam and measures the growth rate of Chinese outbound investment stock relative to China’s GDP. 3000 2069 2015 2250 1873 1957 1583 1239 1295 15001000 1000 969 878 944 765 A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEX = Outbound investment stock 750 GDP 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0 2009Analysis 2010 2011 TMThe A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEX shows that over the past 10 years China’s ODI doubled as a shareof its GDP. TMA CAPITAL DRAGON INDEX dropped during 2001-2003, from 1000 to 765, demonstrating a pausein China’s globalization efforts. The “Go Global” Strategy launched in 1999, was reinforced with the11th 5-Year Plan: since then China’s ODI accelerated with the A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEXTM soaringfrom 1295 in 2007 to 2069 points in 2010.2011 marks a slight drop in the Index from 2069 to 2015 points, due to overperforming Chinesegrowth but may also be a sign of caution of Chinese investors towards volatile markets and increaseddiscernment regarding investment opportunities.A CAPITAL anticipates the Index to hit 4400 in 2016 during the 12th 5-Year Plan (same 16.9% annualincrease as in 2007-2010), meaning an additional 800 billion USD Chinese ODI over the next 5 years. % % 68,USD billion 0 44 M&A 56 greenfield 10,4 billion USD Chinese overseas Invested in European investments in 2011 companies A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEXTM : Full Year 2011
  • 2. Focus: Largest Takeover In Europe 2011 China National Bluestar Group acquired the leading Norwegian material producer Elkem. The 2.3 billion USD (1.6 billion EUR) transaction was closed on 14 April 2011. With this transaction, Bluestar strengthens its competitiveness in the silicone industry, key material for solar, and Elkem gains strong access to the Chinese renewable energies market.By Regions 2011 0 3750 7500 11250 15000 Africa 215 Asia 53% 47% 8208 Europe 80% 20% 10429 North America 78% 22% 6386 Oceania 3225 South America 1950 SOE PRIVATE (by deal value in USD million, M&A only, 2011)By Regions 2010 Total Regions 2011 15,000 6% 1% - 3,750 7,500 11,250 Africa 135 11% AFRICA Asia 9001 27% ASIA Europe 4084 EUROPENorth America 13787 21% NORTH AMERICA Oceania 429 OCEANIASouth America SOUTH AMERICA 13408 34% SOE PRIVATE (by deal value in USD million, M&A only, 2010)• In 2011, Europe became the leading destination for China with 34% of all M&A investmentsrecorded by value, up from only 10% in 2010 (North America dropping from 34% to 21%)• Important deals such as Elkem/Bluestar (Norway), Wanhua/Borsodchem (Hungary) and Medion/Lenovo (Germany) confirm openness of the European market and adequacy with Chinese strategicinvestment sectors.• Transactions in North and Latin America, highly resources–driven, are mostly invested by State-Owned Enterprises (83% of the total).• Key trend identified by A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEX: CIC’s 30% investment into GDF-SuezExploration/Production is symbolic of future strategic minority deals combining western resourcesand technologies with Chinese financing capabilities. A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEXTM : Full Year 2011
  • 3. By Deal type 2011 50000 50,000 • 72% of the deal value in 2011 is attributed to 40844 State-Owned Enterprises (down from 83%). 30424 37500 37,500 • 43% of the deal value in 2011 in minority deals 64% 25000 83% 25,000 43% (down from 64% in 2010), confirming trend 72% towards investment in performing companies. 12500 12,500 36% 57% • Key trend identified by A CAPITAL DRAGON 17% 28% INDEX : private firms are increasingly active, 0 0 2010 2010 2011 2011 with 28% of the investment amount (up from 17%) and 61% in terms of number of deals (up MINORITY MAJORITY PRIVATE SOE from 44%). (by deal value in USD million, M&A only, 2010-2011) By Sectors 2011 0 3750 7500 11250 15000 Africa Asia 48% 36% Europe 26% 27% 43% AUTOMOTIVENorth America 78% CHEMICALS SERVICES Oceania INDUSTRYSouth America RESOURCES (by deal value in USD million, M&A only, 2011) By Sectors 2010 Total Sectors 2011 0 3750 7500 11250 15000 Africa 1% Asia 22% Europe AUTOMOTIVENorth America 51% CHEMICALS Oceania SERVICESSouth America 14% INDUSTRY RESOURCES AUTOMOTIVE 12% CHEMICALS SERVICES INDUSTRY RESOURCES (by deal value in USD million, M&A only, 2010) • China’s ODI remains dominated (51%) by deals in natural resources (down from 61% in 2010). • Very balanced split in neighboring Asia (36% services, 56% industry) may be a good indicator of future directions of Chinese ODI. • Key trend identified by A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEX: Sector split in Europe (54% Industry and Chemicals) and Asia are underlining the trend towards moving up the value chain in technology and services A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEXTM : Full Year 2011
  • 4. TOP 10 outbound deals 2011 Target Company Sector Country Stake Bidder Company USD M GDF SUEZ E&P Resources France 30% China Investment Corporation 3,187 Daylight Energy Ltd Resources Canada 100% Sinopec Group 2,760 Makhteshim Agan Industries Ltd Chemicals Israel 60% China National Chemical Corp 2,508 Elkem AS Chemicals Norway 100% China National Bluestar 2,349 CBMM Resources Brazil 15% Chinese steel consortium 1,950 Australia Pacific LNG Resources Australia 15% Sinopec Group 1,765 BorsodChem Zrt Chemicals Hungary 58% Wanhua Industrial Group 1,701 Sino Polymer New Materials Chemicals Hong Kong 95% China Lumena New Materials Corp. 1,425 InterGen N.V. Resources USA 50% China Huaneng Group 1,232 GE SeaCo SRL Services Singapore 100% Hainan Airlines Group 1,049ODI versus FDI 150 FDI (inward) 116.000 113 105.735 ODI (outward) 92.395 90.033 74.768 68.810 68.000 75 60.325 63.021 55.910 56.330 38 17.633 26.510 12.261 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (investment flows, Greenfield and M&A in billion USD)About the A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEX™The A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEXTM is the first index tracking Chinese outbound investments globally. It aims to be the reference indicatorof Chinese ODI and will track the globalization rate of the Chinese economy since WTO accession in 2001. It is published quarterly by ACAPITAL own research team and measures the growth rate of Chinese outbound investment stock relative to China’s GDP. TMMethodology Figures, charts and data reported in the A CAPITAL DRAGON INDEX are based on data sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics, MOFCOM, UNCTAD, Mergermarket and A CAPITAL proprietary research. A CAPITAL constructed its own dataset based on (i) Publicly available information (ii) Commercial databases (iii) A CAPITAL’s own research. Through this bottom-up approach, started in 2010, A CAPITAL collected most confirmed deals, exceeding 5m USD, above 10% in stake (definition of ODI) and conducted by a Chinese firm in the world. A CAPITAL is the leading Private Equity fund for Chinese Outbound investments with offices in Beijing, Paris and Shanghai. A CAPITAL has originated a new model of Chinese outbound Investments with the landmark Fosun/ClubMed/ACapital transaction in 2010, the first-ever Chinese investment into a global brand to support its growth in China. A CAPITAL has also launched a RMB fund with the support of the Beijing Government. www.acapitaldragonindex.com dragonindex@acapital.hk Copyright © A Capital 2012. All rights reserved