Future Intelligence in Society and Politics
Dr. Johannes Meier
ManagingDirector Xi GmbH
Board Member Bertelsmann Foundation
Mai 2009

Weightdevelopment of ThanksgivingTurkey
Surprise!!
6 kg
5 kg
4 kg
Weight
3 kg
2 kg
1 kg
0 kg
Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez
Source: N. Taleb, „The Black Swan“ Johannes Meier 2

Future Intelligence?
Johannes Meier 3
von vtveen

Collapse
Factorsdrivingcollapse of
societies:
1. naturalchanges in theclimate
2. environmentaldamagecause
dbypeoplethemselves
(inadvertentlyornot)
3. a decline in
supportfromneighborsortradi
ngpartners
4. hostileneighbors
5. how a societyanticipates and
reacts to itsproblems
Source: Jared Diamond Johannes Meier 4
von vtveen

Central role of values - development
• Whatissurvival?
JaredDiamond‘simportantdistinctionbetweenbiological
and socialsurvival
• Common assumption:
Biologicalsurvivaldepending on civilisationalvalues
• Problem:
Wecanbelaw-abiding and peace-loving and tolerant and
inventive and committed to freedom and true to
ourownvalues and still behave in
waysthatarebiologicallysuicidal(The New Yorker, Malcolm
Gladwell )
Johannes Meier 5

Example: link between demography
and climate change
1. Scenario 2050
Developed countries: -40% CO²
Developing counties: same CO²/per capita Future?
 Total emissions at current level Likely global warming:
2. Scenario 2050 Regionally different impacts
Developed countries: no reduction CO²  Floodings
Developing counties: double CO²/per capita  Droughts
 Total emissions + 90%
 Migration waves
3. Scenario 2050
Developed countries: -40% CO²
Developing counties: double CO²/per capita
Total emissions + 66%
Johannes Meier 6

Why was and still isthere so
littlefutureintelligence?
1. Methodologicalbarriers
2. Barriers of politicalrationality
3. Psychologicalbarriers
Johannes Meier 7

Why was and still isthere so
littlefutureintelligence?
1. Methodologicalbarriers
2. Barriers of politicalrationality
3. Psychologicalbarriers
Johannes Meier 8

The future is
open, ambiguous, dialectical
Fundamental trends Future space
Age of Age of
Large information and … of freedom and ideas … of confusion and
communication streams propaganda
… collective intelligence … of individualism
cooperative solutions
… of joint and civil … of trivial pursuits
engagement
Compression of time, distance … of global reach … of global disruptions
and access
Increasing access of poor … of global well-being … of self-interest and
nations and in parallel protectionism
increasing asymmetries
Inadequate ethical and spiritual … of higher awareness … of ideologicalbattles
codes in the face of global risks
Source: KetanPatel Johannes Meier 9
Source : based on Ketan Patel „The Master Strategist: Power, Purpose and Principle“ 2005

Themethodologicalchallenge
• Interdependenciesbetweentrends, risks, interventions
• Decouplingof societalactionfromspace and time restrictions
• Reflexivityof life in modern societies:
socialpracticesareconstantlybeingevaluated and adapted in
the face of
newinformationwhichischangingtheircharacterfundamental
ly (Anthony Giddens)
• Divergent interpretations and fundamental
assumptionsacrosscultural and semioticcontexts
 Process of production of sharedmeaning and
valuesiscritical
Johannes Meier 10

Why was and still isthere so
littlefutureintelligence?
1. Methodologicalbarriers
2. Barriers of politicalrationality
3. Psychologicalbarriers
Johannes Meier 11

Politicalrationality
• Interest of gaining and protecting power
• Majorityprinciple of (today‘s) electorate
 Maximizingvotes
• Party democracy
 Logic of gainingprofile of and within party
• Media democracy
 Daily ratings
Old saleswisdom:
„The fast dollarbeatstheslowdollar“
(Short-termsensitivitybeatslong-termreflection)
Johannes Meier 12

State spending and income 2004 and
population profile 2004 in Germany
1.600 25.000 €
1.400
20.000 €
1.200
Population in 1,000
1.000 15.000 €
800
600 10.000 €
400
5.000 €
200
0 0€
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81
Age
Population 2004 Taxes and contributions per head
Transfer payments and state consumption per head
Johannes Meier 13

State spending and income 2004 and
population profile 2020 in Germany
1.600 25.000 €
1.400
20.000 €
1.200
Population in 1,000
1.000 15.000 €
800
600 10.000 €
400
5.000 €
200
0 0€
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81
Age
Population 2020 Taxes and contributions per head
Transfer payments and state consumption per head
Johannes Meier 14

State spending and income 2004 and
population profile 2030 in Germany
1.400 € +285 bn 25.000 €
1.200
20.000 €
1.000
Population in 1,000
800 15.000 €
600 10.000 €
400
5.000 €
200
0 0€
1 5 € -118 bn 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65€ 69 73 77 81
9 13 17 -403 bn
Age
Population 2030 Taxes and contributions per head
Transfer payments and state consumption per head
Johannes Meier

Johannes Meier
Complication: lack of accruals for
pension obligations
123 125
117
99
88
70
66
58
50 53
34
19
11 15
6 7 9
5 4 4 3
AU
K
S
H
L
O
FR
BE
ES
SE
Z
JA
A
K
E
IS
IE
AT
FI
IT
D
N
N
U
U
C
D
D
C
N
EC
O
Pension fund savings, % GDP, international, 2005
Source: Salverda 2007, OECD

Projection of federal and statelevel of
debt 2020 (in T€ per capita)
2020
today
Source: Schuldenmonitor BST 2007 Johannes Meier 17

Why was and still isthere so
littlefutureintelligence?
1. Methodologicalbarriers
2. Barriers of politicalrationality
3. Psychologicalbarriers
Johannes Meier 18

ShlomoShoham‘sanalysis
Looking forward with
anxiety
Turning
inwards
No energy for
planning and creating Vicious Circle
a future
Preserving the
present reality
Using force to
prevent change
Source: ShlomoShoham: 1. Knesset Commissionerforthe Future Generations Johannes Meier 19

Overcomingthebarriers
1. New methods
2. Involvingcitizens – Creating
relevance and emotions
3. Breakingtheviciouscircle
Johannes Meier 20

1. Methodologicalinnovations
Instead of conventionalapproaches Focus on thegaps
• Extrapolation of past • Includingwildcards, theunthinkabl
e, theutopia
• Disciplinaryreductionism • Mapping of interdependencies
and networkingacrossdisciplines
• Discourse of elites/experts • Discourseacrossperspectives of
many (elites + citizens)
• One-waycommunication of a • Interactiveco-production of
„final“ expertrationality interpretations
• Anxietyscenarios • Visualization of desirablefutures
Johannes Meier 21

2. Creating relevanceforcitizens
• Anticipatingthefuture in
relevant contexts
• Emotionalisation
• Communicating on a large
scale
• Grass-
rootsparticipationopportunit
ies
• Politiciansreactwithacutesen
sibilitywhenthecitizens‘
moodswings
Source: www.wegweiser-kommune.de Johannes Meier 22

3. Breakingtheviciouscircle
The inner source for
creating the future
The courage to
Broad view on
create in the
Humanity real
unknown Changing
needs
awareness
The courage to Intuitive study
let go of the field
Listening and
containing
Source: ShlomoShoham: 1. Knesset Commissionerforthe Future Generations Johannes Meier 23

Example: Theory U as a newapproach
to futureplanning (orrathercreation)
Source: Claus Otto Scharmer, MIT Johannes Meier 24
Source: Claus Otto Scharmer, theoryu.com

Future:
Something, thatismostlyalreadyther
e, beforeweknowit

Example: nextpracticeanalysis of
„resonancespaces“ forchange
intuitive
judgements
Level of attitudes
Level of consciousopinions
Level of actualbehaviourpatterns
Source: Peter Kruse, nextpractice Johannes Meier 26

Development of Germany – Changes in associations
Inequity and
Solidarity and feeling of security
antiquatedrolemodels
Povertyproblems and lack of Income security and
performance distributionjustice
60ies
Bureaucracy and Optimismforfuture and can-
scarcitymanagement 70iesr doattitude
80ies Ideal image
Resignation and Self-reliance and leverage
two-thirdssociety of all potential
90ies
today
Greed and growth ideology principal Citizen engagement and
at expense of children potential culturalrichness
expected
future
Power politics and personal Integration capability and
interestsdominating optimal educationsystems
Innovation and personal
performancestrength
Source: nextpracticestudy on demographicchange in Germany (n = 111)
Johannes Meier 27
for Forum Demographic Change of thePresident, 2 April 2009

Theelusivemiddleground
zentrale Wertepräferenzen der verschiedenen Gruppen
Solidarity
Benefitfor Benefit of
individual community
Eicht preferencegroups
Focus on Focus on
personal socialresponsibility
development
Contribution of Contribution of
individual “whatisimportant to me\" community
Performance
Source: nextpracticestudy on demographicchange in Germany (n = 111)
Johannes Meier 28
for Forum Demographic Change of thePresident, 2 April 2009

Signs of hope
Institutionalinnovations
• Commission for Future
Generations (Israel)
• Innovation Units (UK)
• Wecansolveit.org (USA)
• IPCC (INT)
• Forum Demographic
Change of thePresident (D)
von RebelBlueAngel
Johannes Meier 29

Instead of a summary
The best way to predictthefutureis to shape it.
Willy Brandt
Itisclearthefutureholdsgreatopportunities.
It also holdspitfalls. Thetrick will be to
avoidthepitfalls, seizetheopportunities, and get
back homebysix o'clock.
Woody Allen
Johannes Meier 30