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Die Zukunft der Arbeit

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Presentation given at HRG Conference, Hamburg, 20 January 2011, on the future of work. Technology, Governance and Sustainability are identified as main drivers of change.

Presentation given at HRG Conference, Hamburg, 20 January 2011, on the future of work. Technology, Governance and Sustainability are identified as main drivers of change.

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  • 1.Exponential growth of communication technology\nInformation and communication technology grow exponentially in terms of performance as was most famously formulated in Moore’s law. In fact, exponential growth is driving all components of communication technology: average transistor price, microprocessor cycles, or bits shipped. Every form of communications technology is doubling price-performance capacity every 12-18 months. \n\n
  • Nevertheless, exponential growth also entails challenges. Are we prepared for the prospect that within a generation computers will be able to compute 1016 calculations per second per $1000, which is about the computing power of a human brain as Ray Kurzweil has pointed out? What are the implications of 1026 calculations per second per $1000, i.e. the computing power of humanity, within two generations? \nSuch questions are fundamental. To prepare humanity for this accelerating technological change singularity university was founded in 2008 to assemble, educate and inspire a cadre of leaders who strive to understand and facilitate the development of exponentially advancing technologies and apply, focus and guide these tools to address humanity’s grand challenges.\n\n
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  • 1.Continuous communications\nContinuous availability of communications technology means that we all can be reached continuously independent of where we are. Boundaries between spheres of life are blurring. An espresso bar with a WLAN is a workplace – at least for the so-called creative class. With smartphones and netbooks as standard equipment many modern workers take their work into their evenings, weekends and holidays.\nThe numbers are impressive: \n•The Radicati group estimates that e-mail volume has grown from 31 billion e-mails in 2003 to 247 billion in 2009. Think of the pressure resulting from these emails as many of us expect an answer to an email within 24h.\n•Typical U.S. teenagers send and receive 50 text messages per day, with one in three exceeding 100 text messages per day according to the Pew Internet survey. \n•If you think that 3000 or more messages per month are absurd, let me point out that the blackberry of a typical manager will interrupt the day at least as often with its vibrating alarm indicating the arrival of a new e-mail or SMS. In meetings you can see managers continuously screening their communication devices for the latest message that might be important.\nIn his recent book “Payback” Frank Schirrmacher has pointed out that we are putting ourselves constantly on high alert. However, a continuous alarm is not any more information – remember Shannon’s definition of information – but just noise and disturbance of the peace. \nSchirrmacher observes that after a disruption of an activity, e.g. by an incoming e-mail, it takes on average 25 minutes to return to the original task. We simply tend to forget what we were doing and the disruption often leads to some new activities that are being pursued in parallel. As Herbert Simon had already realized in 1972 a large flow of information can lead to a deficit of attention. There may not be enough attention for all the incoming information to deal with them constructively and to produce deep insight if we stick to this pattern of continuous interruptions. \n\n
  • 1.Continuous communications\nContinuous availability of communications technology means that we all can be reached continuously independent of where we are. Boundaries between spheres of life are blurring. An espresso bar with a WLAN is a workplace – at least for the so-called creative class. With smartphones and netbooks as standard equipment many modern workers take their work into their evenings, weekends and holidays.\nThe numbers are impressive: \n•The Radicati group estimates that e-mail volume has grown from 31 billion e-mails in 2003 to 247 billion in 2009. Think of the pressure resulting from these emails as many of us expect an answer to an email within 24h.\n•Typical U.S. teenagers send and receive 50 text messages per day, with one in three exceeding 100 text messages per day according to the Pew Internet survey. \n•If you think that 3000 or more messages per month are absurd, let me point out that the blackberry of a typical manager will interrupt the day at least as often with its vibrating alarm indicating the arrival of a new e-mail or SMS. In meetings you can see managers continuously screening their communication devices for the latest message that might be important.\nIn his recent book “Payback” Frank Schirrmacher has pointed out that we are putting ourselves constantly on high alert. However, a continuous alarm is not any more information – remember Shannon’s definition of information – but just noise and disturbance of the peace. \nSchirrmacher observes that after a disruption of an activity, e.g. by an incoming e-mail, it takes on average 25 minutes to return to the original task. We simply tend to forget what we were doing and the disruption often leads to some new activities that are being pursued in parallel. As Herbert Simon had already realized in 1972 a large flow of information can lead to a deficit of attention. There may not be enough attention for all the incoming information to deal with them constructively and to produce deep insight if we stick to this pattern of continuous interruptions. \n\n
  • 1.Continuous communications\nContinuous availability of communications technology means that we all can be reached continuously independent of where we are. Boundaries between spheres of life are blurring. An espresso bar with a WLAN is a workplace – at least for the so-called creative class. With smartphones and netbooks as standard equipment many modern workers take their work into their evenings, weekends and holidays.\nThe numbers are impressive: \n•The Radicati group estimates that e-mail volume has grown from 31 billion e-mails in 2003 to 247 billion in 2009. Think of the pressure resulting from these emails as many of us expect an answer to an email within 24h.\n•Typical U.S. teenagers send and receive 50 text messages per day, with one in three exceeding 100 text messages per day according to the Pew Internet survey. \n•If you think that 3000 or more messages per month are absurd, let me point out that the blackberry of a typical manager will interrupt the day at least as often with its vibrating alarm indicating the arrival of a new e-mail or SMS. In meetings you can see managers continuously screening their communication devices for the latest message that might be important.\nIn his recent book “Payback” Frank Schirrmacher has pointed out that we are putting ourselves constantly on high alert. However, a continuous alarm is not any more information – remember Shannon’s definition of information – but just noise and disturbance of the peace. \nSchirrmacher observes that after a disruption of an activity, e.g. by an incoming e-mail, it takes on average 25 minutes to return to the original task. We simply tend to forget what we were doing and the disruption often leads to some new activities that are being pursued in parallel. As Herbert Simon had already realized in 1972 a large flow of information can lead to a deficit of attention. There may not be enough attention for all the incoming information to deal with them constructively and to produce deep insight if we stick to this pattern of continuous interruptions. \n\n
  • Continuous communications is linked to a world built for speed. Take the following book titles: speed walking, speed reading, speed climbing, speed dating, the one-minute manager, the one-minute sales person, or even one-minute bedtime stories. However, there is a growing sense that the fast life is not a synonym for the good life. \n
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  • 1.Intimacy\nTechnology anthropologist Stefana Broadbent tells a story of intimacy being created with the help of modern communication technology. Immigrants from Kosovo have rigged large screens, webcams, and Skype so that the family abroad and the grandmother back in Kosovo can see and talk to each other during mealtimes. She has also observed that on social networks, Skype or IM platforms intense communication patterns usually cover only a very small and intimate circle of friends – suggesting that the term “friends” in facebook may be a slight misnomer.\nAt the same time one cannot escape the impression that sitting alone in front of a keyboard has a different quality of intimacy than sitting together in a café. Yet, many of us now write more to our friends electronically than talk to them. \n\n
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  • Beispiel: Sozialhilfe in Großbritannien\n Call Center verteilen Fälle nach initialem Kontakt an Fachabteilungen\n Verschiedene Abteilungen (und Budgets) zuständig für unterschiedliche Bedarfe\n Abteilungen können ihre Ziele erreichen, indem sie Fälle weiterleiten\n Multiples Versagen mit Blick auf die echten Bedürfnisse der Kunden\n Tendenz, die kritische Natur der Bedürfnisse zu „verbessern “, um Mittel zu erhalten\n End-to-end Messungen zeigen große Varianz, dysfunktionale Leistung trotz guter\n Einzelbewertungen der Abteilungen \n \n \n \n Nicht begründete Ziele steigern Ambiguität und fördern „gaming“\n Die meisten Ziele repräsentieren nicht die Realität aus Sicht der Kunden\n Ziele bringen Menschen dazu, ihre Erfindungsgabe zu nutzen, das Ziel zu erreichen,\n nicht die Leistung des Systems zu verbessern\n
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  • Radikale Antworten wären jetzt notwendig\n\nPathologisches Lernen könnte hier zu spät sein.\n\n„Die Zukunft soll man nicht voraussehen wollen, sondern möglich machen.“\nAntoine de Saint-Exupéry (1900-44), frz. Flieger u. Schriftsteller\n
  • Radikale Antworten wären jetzt notwendig\n\nPathologisches Lernen könnte hier zu spät sein.\n\n„Die Zukunft soll man nicht voraussehen wollen, sondern möglich machen.“\nAntoine de Saint-Exupéry (1900-44), frz. Flieger u. Schriftsteller\n
  • Radikale Antworten wären jetzt notwendig\n\nPathologisches Lernen könnte hier zu spät sein.\n\n„Die Zukunft soll man nicht voraussehen wollen, sondern möglich machen.“\nAntoine de Saint-Exupéry (1900-44), frz. Flieger u. Schriftsteller\n
  • Radikale Antworten wären jetzt notwendig\n\nPathologisches Lernen könnte hier zu spät sein.\n\n„Die Zukunft soll man nicht voraussehen wollen, sondern möglich machen.“\nAntoine de Saint-Exupéry (1900-44), frz. Flieger u. Schriftsteller\n
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