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"Converged Communications -- Impact and Requirements on future handsets" at IWPC Session: Future Handset Applications vs. Next-Gen Hardware December 4th - 7th 2007....

"Converged Communications -- Impact and Requirements on future handsets" at IWPC Session: Future Handset Applications vs. Next-Gen Hardware December 4th - 7th 2007.

http://www.iwpc.org/Workshop_Folders/07_12_Handset_Apps/Handset_Nokia.htm

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    "Converged Communications -- Impact and Requirements on future handsets "Converged Communications -- Impact and Requirements on future handsets Presentation Transcript

    • The (Mobile) Surf’s Up!Converged Communications -- Impact andRequirements on future handsetsJohn LoughneyNokia Research Centerhttp://research.nokia.com/people/john_loughney/1 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Voice will be the killer app for some time 1300 1200 Mobile Data 1100 Fixed Data 1000 Mobile Voice Global Revenue € Bn 900 Fixed Voice 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2000 2003 2004 2005 2008 2001 2002 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 1996 2 © 2007 John Loughney From: Nokia March 2006
    • Business and Technology trends Opportunities and benefits Nokia’s strategy and offering Conclusions3 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Look How Far We Have Come• First Generation - 1981 with NMT (Nordic Mobile Telephone) system• Second Generation - 20th birthday of GSM this year• First camera phone 2001 (VGA) Nokia 7650 (first GSM phone)• First desktop-like mobile phone browser 2005• 850 million people around the world connected with Nokia devices• We estimate that Mobile subscriptions will surpass 3 billion this year and 4 billion by 2010• But this story is not coming to end. It’s evolving fast… And consumer expectations are higher. Much higher…4 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Voice is still the driver for mobile phones • Customers need communication on the go. • Mobility provides superior productivity, flexibility & convenience benefits. • Fixed–to-mobile substitution happening in homes & offices • Mobile customers expect to access Internet communities & services. • New technologies enabling broadband services in mobiles • 3G is a key driver for mobile rich Mobile Data users (millions) communication • WLAN has reached maturity to be a reality for mobiles • Unlicensed Mobile Access • SIP (Internet and 3GPP)5 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Mobile Internet Media Consumption is Booming • Mobile broadband, Internet, and media player capabilities boost new value in the market. • The value of the mobile digital music sales will grow from €387M in 2006 to €2.2Bn in 2010 • By 2010, digital music sales will account for over 33% of the music retail revenue, or over 40% if ringtones are included. • South Korea, Japan, and Spain are examples of markets where OTA music downloads dwarf PC music downloads • The number of worldwide mobile video subscribers will jump 8006% between 2005 and 2009 • Mobile video handsets sold worldwide is expected to grow from 28 million in 2005 to 336 million in 2009Source: Nokia Hear New, 2007 6 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Internet communication - Broadband everywhere • Rich Internet communication is growing fast • Aggressively priced VoIP call • New / Ad based business models • Services combining VoIP + IM + Presence • Numerous and fast evolving services from the ”long tail” of the Internet • Enterprises adopting IP-PBX for cost savings and future proof technology • Hundreds of millions of IM & VoIP service registered users • 240 million MSN Messenger active accounts • 80 million Yahoo! Messenger users • 1.5 million GoogleTalk users • 130 million registered Skype users • Consumer market • ISPs offering rich communication services for consumers already • Numerous, niche services from the ”long tail” of the Internet • Integrated IM, Email, VoIP, image & video sharing, etc. • Over 400 Million active IM users, close to 500M email users Source: xSPs own statements / press releases and MyMetrix7 MediaTrend Report mid 2006 © 2007 John Loughney
    • 3G, LTE and WiMAX• HSPA is available today to bring high-speed data to 3G networks, with a clear evolution• Long Term Evolution (LTE) is the optimal evolution path from GSM and WCDMA/HSPA to future networks and services• WiMax offers an opportunity for operators primarily without 3G licenses to deploy wireless broadband HSDPA HSPUA I-HSPA GSM EDGE WCDMA LTE WiMAX-2005 (Mobile) WLAN ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 HSPA+ EDGE and (evolved WCDMA HSPA I-HSPA WiMax LTE EDGE) HSPA Evolution (802.16e)Latency 300ms 150ms 50ms 25ms 15ms 10msPeak data rate 200/100 kbit/s 384/384 kbit/s 14/5 Mbit/s 14/5 Mbit/s 70/40 Mbit/s 100/50 Mbit/sDL/UL (400/200k) CAPEX / OPEX CS and high Broadband PS,8Services John Loughney © 2007 CS and PS speed PS Broadband PS optimised VoIP PS only, VoIP broadband PS
    • Location Based Services (LBS) Market Data Mobile LBS market will grow to $8.5 billion during the next four years.* Almost 2.5 million GPS integrated navigation devices were sold in 2Q06 in EMEA, 97% growth from 2Q05.** Consumer top most wanted cellular applications other than voice communication***: 1. Navigation assistance - 33% GPS/AGPS Mobile Phone Sales 2. Traffic conditions for route – 31% Forecast, Gartner 2006 3. Weather Information – 27% 600000 4. Send/Receive Text messages – 24% Thousands of Units 5. Find Points of Interest – 23% 500000 6. Monitor location of children – 23% 400000 7. Push to talk – 21% 300000 8. Send/receive emails - 21% 200000 9. Pedestrian directions - 20% Hotel 100000 0 New Cafe Favorite Shop 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Rest of World Western Europe North America Japan APAC *Juniper Research 20069 © 2007 John Loughney **Canalys 2006 ***CJ Driscoll 2006
    • Nokia’s strategy and offering Opportunities and benefits Nokia’s strategy and offering Conclusions10 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Mobile Communication: Converged Access, availability, communication & content • Session-based real-time conversational communication • Over Cellular and wireless BB • Unified user interface • Person-to-person / group • Voice or video calls • Push to Talk conversations • Instant Messaging / chat • Sharing personal media content within session • Enabled by • IP multimedia subsystem (IMS) • Session Management with Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) • Presence, capabilities advertising • Content / Group Management11 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Service bundling becoming a key factor • Service providers are User will perceive: deploying “sticky • Consistent user experience bundles” to increase • Service continuity/ availability customer retention & • One bill instead of several attainable market • Single sign-on becoming more relevant as the number of services grows Service bundling is a natural part of rich & converged service offering Triple/Quadruple playOffer integrated services and leverage applications across: High speed Internet, TV, Wireless Games …Value IPTV, VOD Adoption communities Voice and messaging12 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Examples of operators enriching services FT / / Orange Livebox with UMA TeliaSonera HomeFree with UMA TeliaSonera HomeFree with UMA FT Orange Livebox with UMA • • “TeliaSonera is first in the world to introduce a voice “TeliaSonera is first in the world to introduce a voice • • Livebox enables broadband connections for all Livebox enables broadband connections for all solution that combines mobile communications and home communications: solution that combines mobile communications and home communications: wireless broadband - - the mobile phone and voice over wireless broadband the mobile phone and voice over • • Web, IP TV, VoIP, video call, on-line games, Web, IP TV, VoIP, video call, on-line games, IP become merged in one and the same telephone. IP become merged in one and the same telephone. UMA calls, home surveillance, etc. UMA calls, home surveillance, etc. • • Subscription: ~25€ + 20kr/month, for free vowlan Subscription: ~25€ + 20kr/month, for free vowlan •Launched July 2004, 3M subscribers by Mid inland, mobile fee for international, ~10€ extra for free •Launched July 2004, 3M subscribers by Mid inland, mobile fee for international, ~10€ extra for free 2006 international. 2006 international. • average 30€/month + 3€/month for Livebox • average 30€/month + 3€/month for Livebox (WiFi enabled) modem (WiFi enabled) modem BT Fusion UMA BT Fusion UMA • Bundle of voice minutes and texts, • Bundle of voice minutes and texts, • • With BT Home Hub or BT Openzone hotspots you With BT Home Hub or BT Openzone hotspots you can talk for 44 minutes but only use 1 of your inclusive can talk for minutes but only use 1 of your inclusive minutes. minutes. • FREE internet surfing on your mobile with Wifi • FREE internet surfing on your mobile with Wifi13 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Examples of operators bundling services Singtel mio Mobile Singtel mio Mobile Starhub pfingo Starhub pfingo • • AA dual-mode service that allows mobile users dual-mode service that allows mobile users • • AA mobile Internet service suite that provides mobile Internet service suite that provides to use VoIP from home Wi-Fi and over 5,000 VoIP, IM, remote access to video and music to use VoIP from home Wi-Fi and over 5,000 VoIP, IM, remote access to video and music Wireless@SG hotspots; Wireless@SG hotspots; files across the mobile phone and PC in a files across the mobile phone and PC in a • The commercial launch of the service took single, integrated application. single, integrated application. • The commercial launch of the service took place on Jan 8, 2007; • • pfingoTALK is aa subscription-based VoIP place on Jan 8, 2007; pfingoTALK is subscription-based VoIP • The subscription (fixed monthly) fee for the service to make and receive calls over the • The subscription (fixed monthly) fee for the service to make and receive calls over the service is ~7€; Internet from a Wi-Fi hotspot or broadband service is ~7€; Internet from a Wi-Fi hotspot or broadband connected PC • Available to consumers and SME customers connected PC • Available to consumers and SME customers • • cross-carrier service will be open to any user on postpaid mobile plans allowing them to cross-carrier service will be open to any user on postpaid mobile plans allowing them to worldwide, not just StarHub subscribers make unlimited local calls using Nokia SIP- worldwide, not just StarHub subscribers make unlimited local calls using Nokia SIP- enabled VoIP devices; • Users can also obtain an overseas phone enabled VoIP devices; • Users can also obtain an overseas phone • Supported on Nokia E60, Nokia E61, Nokia number that is linked to their pfingoTALK • Supported on Nokia E60, Nokia E61, Nokia number that is linked to their pfingoTALK N80 Internet Edition, Nokia E65 and Nokia account so that contacts in that country can account so that contacts in that country can N80 Internet Edition, Nokia E65 and Nokia dial this number and pay only local call rate. N95. dial this number and pay only local call rate. N95. • Dual-mode calling with single-numbering • Currently in trials, expected to launch • Dual-mode calling with single-numbering • Currently in trials, expected to launch commercially at mid-2007 commercially at mid-200714 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Examples of 3G operators partnering E-Plus and Skype 33Sweden and Skype X-series by 33 X-series by E-Plus and Skype Sweden and Skype • •3G data cards bundled with • •33Sweden and Skype offer • •Your TV, home PC and all Your TV, home PC and all 3G data cards bundled with Sweden and Skype offer Skype client and aaSkype mobile broadband the best of the web on your the best of the web on your Skype client and Skype mobile broadband headset telephone (for laptop connection with mobile mobile. mobile. headset telephone (for laptop connection with mobile use) VoIP, to challenge fixed VoIP, to challenge fixed • •Free Skype calls. Search use) Free Skype calls. Search phone pricing phone pricing the web with Yahoo! • •In the future, integrated In the future, integrated the web with Yahoo! Skype client in the 3G • •Pricing: Download podcasts. Bid on Download podcasts. Bid on Skype client in the 3G Pricing: smartphone • • Data card for ~100€ ++ Data card for ~100€ eBay. Or browse Google, eBay. Or browse Google, smartphone BBC and Amazon. Etc. Skype subscription BBC and Amazon. Etc. • •39€ per month for unlimited Skype subscription 39€ per month for unlimited ~20€/month for 1GB ~20€/month for 1GB • •5-10£/month in UK 3G data 3G data data/month 5-10£/month in UK data/month • •Nokia N73, SE W950i • •SkypeIn and SkypeOut SkypeIn and SkypeOut • • Or ~50€/month for Or ~50€/month for Nokia N73, SE W950i charges apply for calls to charges apply for calls to unlimited data, data card unlimited data, data card PSTN and mobile networks inclusive inclusive PSTN and mobile networks - Revenue sharing deals, Bundle price and/or15 © 2007 John Loughney flat rate offering, etc.-
    • Broadband players are entering the game Boingo Boingo Sipgate Sipgate • • Aggregates and sells WiFi access to its subscribers, Aggregates and sells WiFi access to its subscribers, • • Sipgate is a Pan-European VoIP ISP Sipgate is a Pan-European VoIP ISP mainly for data usage •Free VoIP calls, now also with Nokia E-series dual- mainly for data usage •Free VoIP calls, now also with Nokia E-series dual- • Expand the usage of its hotspots to voice mode phones • Expand the usage of its hotspots to voice mode phones • • WiFi toolkit available for handsets and other mobile WiFi toolkit available for handsets and other mobile • • Free inside Sipgate networks and with some partner Free inside Sipgate networks and with some partner devices networks devices networks •Established Skype Zones, allowing Skype (via laptop) • • Competitive rates for normal PSTN, cellular, and Competitive rates for normal PSTN, cellular, and •Established Skype Zones, allowing Skype (via laptop) users flat rate access to Skype through Boingo hotspots international calls users flat rate access to Skype through Boingo hotspots international calls (€6.65 per month) (€6.65 per month) Vonage Vonage Freenet Freenet • Broadband telephone services provider with ~2M • Freenet Mobile and DSL-Telefonie (VoIP over • Broadband telephone services provider with ~2M • Freenet Mobile and DSL-Telefonie (VoIP over subscriber lines, started in 2001 WLAN) bundle offer subscriber lines, started in 2001 WLAN) bundle offer • • Phone adapter, USB PC adapter, or Wi-Fi Phone Phone adapter, USB PC adapter, or Wi-Fi Phone • Available for Nokia dual-mode devices: N95, E65, • Available for Nokia dual-mode devices: N95, E65, • • Flat rate pricing inside US, Canada, and top 6 European Flat rate pricing inside US, Canada, and top 6 European N80 N80 countries countries • • 25$ private unlimited 25$ private unlimited • • 50$ business unlimited 50$ business unlimited • • Low international rates elsewhere Low international rates elsewhere16 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Operator’s Role Operator’s assets with internet services Operator’s assets with internet services •• Subscriber base, existing customers Subscriber base, existing customers •• Billing machinery Connection provider for/to ISP Billing machinery Connection provider for/to ISP • Wide area mobile access, frequencies communities • Wide area mobile access, frequencies communities •• Preferred provider of personal communications Preferred provider of personal communications services services • Brand & consumer awareness • Brand & consumer awareness •• Authentication and secure reputation Authentication and secure reputation Strong operator community service to Strong operator community service to compete against the ISPs compete against the ISPs Service level co-operation with ISPs Service level co-operation with ISPs - -Revenue sharing deals - - Revenue sharing deals17 © 2007 John Loughney
    • 3rd Party Communication Applications Available • Several developers developing IMS/SIP and rich communication applications • 3rd party SIP applications usable through SIP API Company Application titles Application type SIP Phone Gizmo SIP VoIP and IM Fring Fring VoIP and IM, connects also to Skype, Gtalk, MSN Movial MIM Multimedia instant messaging Movial Movial Connect Mobile Rich mobile application/service suite Arcsoft Push to show Push to show Noumena Subsonic racing, Jewel Several P2P game titles Impulse, MVR Pool, Power Darts, Black Jack, The Five, Treasure Mine, Mad Macs mBounce MoMo friends Networking application N2N mBit client File sharing application Futurice Photos to friends Album sharing application (+blogging) … and more18 © 2007 John Loughney
    • VoIP device competitors New announcements appear UMA devices WiFi SIP VoIP phones constantly … And many more … Motorola UTStarcom Linksys LG CL400 Samsung F1000G WIP300 A910 SGH-T709 VoIP over cellular “Skype phones” - 3’s X-series- Linksys NETGEAR Qtek 9100 MotoRZR CIT200 (WiFi) (dual-mode) SE W950i LGU830 MaxxV3 (WiFi)19 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Business and Technology trends Opportunities and benefits Nokia’s strategy and offering Conclusions20 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Mobile devices play key role in interactiveWeb 2.0 sharing and blogging services Nokia users share images and video on-line • Attractive online photo and video blog services improve ARPU and data subscription sales • Popular photo & video blogging services integrated in more and more Nokia devices • New global and regional communities continuously added • Nokia number 1 mobile device in Flicker • Over 4 million photos originate from Nokia devices21 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Convergence offers benefits and opportunitiesfor all EnterprisesOperators & other • Increase productivity by anywhere access to key corporate applications service providers • Enable enterprise collaboration solutions also• Innovative IP multimedia on mobiles services portfolio: VoIP, IM, • Reduce costs by moving voice and data to Video, Presence, etc. common IP networks• Fast deployment of services based on IP Enterprises• Cost reductions by moving to IP-based service machinery Operators / Service Providers• Cost efficient cellular services indoors• Satisfy the customer needs for fixed-to-mobile-substitution Consumers• Enable the users to connect their favorite internet • Be connected to the favourite communities with mobiles. Consumers internet communities also when on the move• Service provider partnerships for full bundled rich services • Attractive prices for basic voice • Rich service bundles from one service provider22 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Convergence Business Landscape Mobile technologies, networks and devices are Mobile technologies, networks and devices are mature for rich communication services. mature for rich communication services. Internet players offering Disruptive business model Internet players offering VoIP combined with VoIP combined with Numerous small VoIP and community service instant messaging, email, etc. Numerous small VoIP and community service Internet instant messaging, email, etc. providers innovating in the mobile space. - - and moving to mobile space. and moving to mobile space. providers innovating in the mobile space. ISP’s Operators and Mega ISPs enabling Operators and Mega ISPs enabling New internet communities with mobiles. Virtual internet communities with mobiles. MobileContent vs.Operators Virtual Mobile Access based Enterprise Operator Fixed business models Hybrid Operators Monopoly Mobile operators Mobile operators Fixed deploying rich deploying rich operators communications Mobile communications Operators services. services. Cable operators Fixed operators counter attack Telecom Fixed operators counter attack fixed substitution fixed substitution with VoIP and broadband Established business model with VoIP and broadband Mobile operators expanding services with broadband/WLAN Mobile operators expanding services with broadband/WLAN and IP based solutions –– partnerships, mergers, etc. and IP based solutions partnerships, mergers, etc.23 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Business and Technology trends Opportunities and benefits Nokia’s strategy and offering Conclusions24 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Nokia supports convergence in multiple ways• Many technologies to choose from • IETF SIP, 3GPP/IMS VoIP, UMA, IMS VCC Communities • Proprietary technologies for community services and Rich messaging enterprise solutions Push to Video Presence • VoIP and other IP services over Cellular/3G/WiFi talk Content sharing sharing Inter-• WLAN and WiMax are Messaging active gaming Chat Voice complementary technologies to cellular – EDGE, 3G, HSPA, LTE Packet-switched network are crucial for full mobility (3G, WLAN, xDSL) The industry should continue to promote standards-based technologies to ensure interoperability between devices and networks. 25 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Convergence is happeningI am: 16502838068 +358504838068 john.loughney@nokia.com john.loughney@kolumbus.fi gmail/gtalk:john.loughney jabber:loughney skype:loughney gizmo:loughney(17476423923) aim:jlghny yahoo:j_loughney http://www.flickr.com/j_loughney http://www.geocities.com/j_loughney/ http://research.nokia.com/people/john_loughney/ http://del.icio.us/loughneyAnd I want to use these on my phone!26 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Moving in to the mobile, always connectedInternet• Nokia creates devices that enable communication, with very human technology.• Nokia Betalabs (www.nokia.combetalabs) used as a beta site for new and interesting applications• Nokia Research Center focused on Open Innovations with key partners 3 3 2 1 2 Phone PC Tablet27 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Impact of IP over cellular • UDP and TCP timeouts vary widely, a default 30 seconds may be needed for UDP. • Several different NAT traversal mechanisms are needed • STUN, TURN, ICE, Teredo • All bring additional terminal and network complexity • Additional CAPEX and OPEX • All NAT traversal mechanism do open some security holes. • Even worse, you might be behind different NATs at different times of the day • Home, office, hotspot networks often use different types of NATs. • Each requiring a different traversal mechanism • Performance over 3G is even worse • UMTS radio state management prevents the mobile device from entering sleep mode, often reducing standby time by days. • http://www.niksula.hut.fi/~peronen/publications/haverinen_siren_eronen_vtc2007.pdf 28 © 2007 John Loughney
    • Thank You!29 © 2007 John Loughney