Market outlook stoplosstrade 21 st jan 2013


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Market outlook stoplosstrade 21 st jan 2013

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Market outlook stoplosstrade 21 st jan 2013

  1. 1. 21-01-2013 Daily Market Insight What will happen?Positive steps taken by the Government duringthe week led to a decent intraweek rally in our India • Eight Infrastructurebenchmark indices. Partial deregulation of dieselprices was seen as a landmark development on Industriesthe reforms front and as a result, the market (25-31 Jan)managed to eventually close above thepsychological level of 20000 (Sensex)/ 6000(NIFTY) for the first time after December 31,2010. Last weeks low of 19596 / 5940 remains Chinato be a key support in the coming trading • HSBC Flashsessions. A breach of this level may trigger Manufacturing PMIpessimism in the market and in such a scenario, (24 Jan)we expect a corrective move towards the nextsupport levels of 19406 - 19221 / 5897 - 5842. • MNI Jan BusinessCorporate results will continue to hog the Sentiment indicatorlimelight. The coming week has a number of (25 Jan)larger companies such as HUL, L&T, HDFC andMaruti Suzuki announcing their results.After this weekend, it is only the 29th, on whichthere has been some debate on how much theReserve Bank of India (RBI) can move. Partly, thebond yields have also come back. So, that is thelast big trigger for the market in the next 15-20days which could take the market higher fromwhere we are right now. We can have a thrusttowards 6,100-6,150 over the next few days. Events to watch... US • Existing Home Sales (22 Jan) • MBA Mortgage Applications (23 Jan) • Initial Jobless claims (MoM) (24 Jan)© Copyright 2012, HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.
  2. 2. 21-01-2013 Daily Market Insight STOCK WATCH: Reliance likely to lead next leg of rally for markets: Oil and Gas major reliance Industries surprised the street by posting first profit increase after four quarters of declining returns, boosted by higher Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) and good show from its Pet. chem Segment. Reliance beats street in Q3 earnings with net profit up 24 percent to Rs 55.02 billion from Rs. 44.4 billion a year ago. Brokerages like Credit Suisse and CLSA have maintained outperform rating on RIL and raised their target price on expectations of improved earnings in coming years as the company continues its capex plans, better gross refining margins, retail business and higher gas prices. Macquarie has upgraded the stock to outperform as it sees earnings improve on the back of capex. It sees the stock to hit Rs 1,100 in next 12-months. NIFTY FO has resistance at 6109 - 6119 Outlook for the day Level; above which other resistanceMarkets for the week ended made smart levels are at 6161 - 6190 Level withcomeback after reforms announced by the highly Volatile Trend, In DownsideGovernment on front of partial regulation on support levels are at 6019 - 6003 Level;petroleum product to close nifty above 6050 below 6003 Level, other support levelslevels. Sensex and Nifty picked up momentum on are at 5970 - 5933 Levels.the back of excellent corporate results and betterthan expected December month Inflationnumbers and the Finance minister’s decision to INDICES LTP Change % Changedefer the implementation of ‘General Anti- NIFTY 6064.40 25.20 0.42%Avoidance Rules’ – GAAR. What is heartening is SENSEX 20039.04 75.01 0.38%that FII inflows continue unabated (FIIs havealready pumped in ~Rs 90 billion this calendar CNX 3783.65 -3.50 -0.09%year into Indian equities) amid hopes that SMALLCAPGovernment will continue with further reforms CNXMIDCAP 8591.35 -1.50 -0.02%and deliver a credible plan on fiscalconsolidation. BANKNIFTY 12680.00 30.40 0.24%© Copyright 2012, HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.
  3. 3. 21-01-2013 Daily Market Insight COMMODITY BUZZ! Gold MCX February gold futures fell sharply on Thursday due to strong gains in Indian rupee against US dollar as the government of India, in its fuel reforms, allowed oil companies to make small changes to diesel prices over a period of time. MCX February Gold futures are expected to trade slightly lower on account of strong gain in Indian rupee against US dollar. MCX February gold will find a support at 30,800/30,935 levels and resistance 30,400/30,210 levels. COPPER Copper price recovered slightly from low on the back of positive economic data from US and China. U.S. housing starts rose most in four years while initial jobless claims declined to five year low, which indicates economic expansion. Industrial production in the U.S. climbed for a second month in December as demand picked up for business equipment, showing factories expanded even as lawmakers battled over the federal budget. MCX February Copper is expected to trade slightly higher on account of favorable economic data from US and China. MCX February Copper shall find a support at 432/428 levels and resistance 446/452 levels. Buy MCX February Copper between 432-435, SL-427 and Target- 446/451. CRUDE MCX February crude oil is expected to trade higher on account of reduced crude oil production by Saudi Arabia coupled with positive economic data from US and China. MCX February crude oil shall find a support at 5090/5040 levels and resistance 5235/5285 levels. Buy MCX February Crude Oil between 5090-5100, SL-5035 and Target- 5232/ 5280.© Copyright 2012, HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.
  4. 4. 21-01-2013 Daily Market InsightOption Strategy- NIFTY OPTION OPEN INTEREST CHART 9000000 8000000 7000000 6000000 5000000 CALL OI 4000000 PUT OI 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 NIFTY OPTION OPEN INTEREST CHANGE CHART 800000 600000 400000 200000 CALL OI CHANGE 0 PUT OI CHANGE 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 -200000 -400000 -600000 The option data suggests that the market participants are currently visualizing the 6200 mark on the higher side and 6000 on the lower side. Very High PUT has been written for 6000 PUT option, which indicates that 6000 would work as a support for NIFTY in near future. Change in OI remains equal for 6100 CALL and PUT keeping the total Open Interest for 6100 CALL to be at higher side which will act as resistance for NIFTY.© Copyright 2012, HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.
  5. 5. 21-01-2013 Daily Market Insight Derivative Info Increase In Open Interest %Chg. Symbol Prev. OI Curr. OI %Chg. OI Curr. Price Price IOC HINDZINC 1612 1641 2330 1988 44.54% 21.15% 350.4 130.6 10.94% -1.58% ONE CAN GO PETRONET 2042 2442 19.59% 160.8 -0.12% LONG IN ONGC ONGC 9758 11407 16.90% 339.05 7.55% UNIONBANK 1561 1811 16.02% 268.9 1.07% Decrease In Open Interest %Chg. Symbol Prev. OI Curr. OI %Chg. OI Curr. Price Price MARUTI ONE CAN GO EXIDEIND 7503 3274 6601 2957 -12.02% -9.68% 1545.85 126.5 2.89% -9.29% SHORT IN CESC CESC 2497 2280 -8.69% 325.25 2.62% PTC 833 781 -6.24% 79.5 0.44% HDIL 6080 5707 -6.13% 120.7 1.00% Increase In Open Interest & Decrease In Price %Chg. BUY Symbol Prev. OI Curr. OI %Chg. OI Curr. Price Price HINDZINC 1641 1988 21.15% 130.6 -1.58% PETRONET AND PETRONET 2042 2442 19.59% 160.8 -0.12% HAVELLS WIPRO 4089 4598 12.45% 397.4 -7.86% HINDUNILVR 12576 14034 11.59% 490.15 -2.11% HAVELLS 888 941 5.97% 665.25 -0.92% Decrease In Open Interest & Increase In Price SELL Symbol Prev. OI Curr. OI %Chg. OI Curr. Price %Chg. Price MARUTI AND MARUTI 7503 6601 -12.02% 1545.85 2.89% CESC HINDALCO PTC 2497 833 2280 781 -8.69% -6.24% 325.25 79.5 2.62% 0.44% HDIL 6080 5707 -6.13% 120.7 1.00% HINDALCO 17280 16341 -5.43% 123.25 0.37%© Copyright 2012, HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.
  6. 6. 21-01-2013 Daily Market Insight Daily Market Insight is an Informative Newsletter, powered by STOPLOSSTRADE [ |] About STOPLOSSTRADE - A decade old financial advisory services firm with a vision to simplify the complex world of the financial markets. It provides a wide range of services nationwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes retail clients, HNI’s, corporates and financial institutions. STOPLOSSTRADE is a 100% subsidiary of HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd. Complete details can be found on [ | ] About HBJ Capital - HBJ Capital was founded in 2005 as an Equity research firm and currently has grown to become a Financial Services provider.HBJ Capital has core competencies in Equity Research, Corporate Consultancy and Private Equity. The company is one of the leaders in Equity research domain and provides services to retail clients, HNI’ s, FII’s, Hedge Funds and Brokerage partners. Complete details can be found on DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared for private circulation and the content has been obtained from various sources believed to be reliable, but we do not hold ourselves liable for its completeness and accuracy. HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd, STOPLOSSTRADE and any of its employees shall not be responsible for the content and actions taken on the basis of this content. This is not an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities. Users are advised to use the data for purposes of information only and rely on their own judgment while making investment decisions.© Copyright 2012, HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.
  7. 7. 21-01-2013 Daily Market Insight Corporate Office (Bangalore) Stoplosstrade (SLT) #912, 1st F Main, Girinagar 2nd Phase, BSK 3rd Stage, Bangalore -85; LandMark: Near Sai baba Temple Phone: 080 65681133/34 Mobile: +91-9886403791/+080 – 6 999 999 2 E-Mail: Bangalore Branch Office: Stoplosstrade (SLT) #578, Shree Durga Arcade, 2nd Floor 6th Block, BSK III stage, Bangalore – 560 085 LandMark: Above AXIS Bank Mobile: +91-9886403791/080-6 999 999 2 E-Mail: New Delhi Branch Office: #I-2 (3rd Floor), Central Market (Next to KFC ) Lajpat Nagar -2, New Delhi -110019 Ph-011 64780080/79/78/77/76 Mobile: +91 – 9718979319 [24X7] Contact: Mr. Abhishek Kumar Singh, Operation Head (New Delhi, NCR)© Copyright 2012, HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.