Energy and Environmental  Prediction model (EEP)
The EEP Model A brief intro to the model Primary User Interface Data Highway Domestic energy use Non-domestic energy use I...
The EEP Model A brief history <ul><li>In 1994 as part of the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) Su...
The EEP Model A brief history <ul><li>A second project funded by the EPSRC started in 1998  titled; </li></ul><ul><li>“ De...
The EEP Model A brief history <ul><li>A third project funded by the EPSRC and Medical Research Council started in 2000  ti...
The EEP Model A brief history <ul><li>A fourth project funded by the EPSRC started in 2007  titled; </li></ul><ul><li>“ Th...
The EEP Model A brief history <ul><li>To date the EEP model has been applied to all or part of the following areas; </li><...
The EEP Model The model <ul><li>The EEP model is made up of the following sub-models </li></ul><ul><li>Domestic </li></ul>...
The EEP Model The  Domestic sub-model Based on the SAP model Uses cluster analysis to group similar dwellings Assumptions ...
The EEP Model Data for the Domestic sub-model <ul><li>Rapid survey: </li></ul><ul><li>Age  </li></ul><ul><li>Heated ground...
The EEP Model Domestic sub-model   Cluster analysis Cluster analysis is “A procedure that attempts to identify relatively ...
The EEP Model Domestic sub-model   assumptions Heating system assumptions were made from questionnaires; Heating type Pre ...
The EEP Model Health sub-model <ul><li>Health data taken and compared to built environment data; </li></ul><ul><li>Instanc...
The EEP Model Health sub-model likelihood of accidents in the home People living in purpose built flats had twice the rate...
The EEP Model The role of the EEP model is to assess various aspects of the built environment in order to find patterns an...
 
http://www.retrofit2050.org.uk/ The aim of the research is to develop the knowledge and capability to overcome the separat...
<ul><li>The research will </li></ul><ul><li>Explore and advance theoretical and practical understandings of processes of s...
Work Package 1 Urban Transitions  Analysis Work Package 2 Urban Foresight Laboratory (2020-2050) Work Package 3 Urban Opti...
To wrap up, We are fundamentally looking for the ‘leap’ or ‘step change’ required to achieve the targets. Because targets ...
Thanks for listening Any Questions? Presented by: Diana Waldron   [email_address] In collaboration with:  Simon Lannon  La...
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EEP Modelling & RETROFIT2050 brief project overview - Diana Waldron, Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University

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Presentation on EEP Modelling and RETROFIT2050 given by Diana Waldron, Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University at the JISC GECO/STEEV Green Energy Tech Event on Thursday 13th October 2011.

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EEP Modelling & RETROFIT2050 brief project overview - Diana Waldron, Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University

  1. 1. Energy and Environmental Prediction model (EEP)
  2. 2. The EEP Model A brief intro to the model Primary User Interface Data Highway Domestic energy use Non-domestic energy use Industrial energy use Traffic flow energy use Pollutant dispersal Health Sub-models Geographical Information System
  3. 3. The EEP Model A brief history <ul><li>In 1994 as part of the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) Sustainable cites programme the Welsh School of Architecture started a project titled; </li></ul><ul><li>“ To Develop a model for energy and environmental </li></ul><ul><li>planning for sustainable cites” </li></ul><ul><li>The project initially focused on: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic energy use </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Traffic modelling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Developing a Geographical </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Information System (GIS) interface </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Collaborators included: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>British Gas plc </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cardiff County Council </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mandix </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. The EEP Model A brief history <ul><li>A second project funded by the EPSRC started in 1998 titled; </li></ul><ul><li>“ Development and completion of the EEP model” </li></ul><ul><li>The results from these project included : </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid survey methods </li></ul><ul><li>A demonstration software package </li></ul><ul><li>New traffic modelling techniques </li></ul><ul><li>A simple health outcome model </li></ul><ul><li>Collaborators included: </li></ul><ul><li>University College London </li></ul><ul><li>De Montfort University </li></ul><ul><li>Neath Port Talbot Borough Council </li></ul><ul><li>Queens University Belfast </li></ul><ul><li>Cardiff County Council </li></ul><ul><li>Leicester City Council </li></ul><ul><li>Northern Ireland Housing Executive </li></ul>
  5. 5. The EEP Model A brief history <ul><li>A third project funded by the EPSRC and Medical Research Council started in 2000 titled; </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ HANAH - Housing And Neighbourhoods And Health “ </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>This investigated the health impacts of the built environment on; </li></ul><ul><li>Accidents and injuries </li></ul><ul><li>Respiratory illness </li></ul><ul><li>Mental health and neighbourhoods </li></ul><ul><li>Collaborators included </li></ul><ul><li>Neath Port Talbot Borough Council </li></ul><ul><li>University of Wales College of Medicine </li></ul>
  6. 6. The EEP Model A brief history <ul><li>A fourth project funded by the EPSRC started in 2007 titled; </li></ul><ul><li>“ The classification and analysis of regional building stock characteristics using GIS“ </li></ul><ul><li>The three aims of this project were; </li></ul><ul><li>Investigate the potential of using object recognition techniques on maps to improve data collection </li></ul><ul><li>The identification of additional requirements, capability, and/or functionality for EEP </li></ul><ul><li>Additional requirements and functionality for such systems as EEP when applied on a large scale. </li></ul><ul><li>This research was very much “blue sky” and hence was not focused on producing a piece of software, rather it produced a number of techniques. </li></ul>
  7. 7. The EEP Model A brief history <ul><li>To date the EEP model has been applied to all or part of the following areas; </li></ul><ul><li>Neath Port Talbot </li></ul><ul><li>Cardiff </li></ul><ul><li>Camden </li></ul><ul><li>Leicester </li></ul><ul><li>Belfast </li></ul><ul><li>Newcastle, New South Wales </li></ul><ul><li>China </li></ul><ul><li>The traffic model has been used in; </li></ul><ul><li>York </li></ul><ul><li>Bristol </li></ul><ul><li>Leeds </li></ul>
  8. 8. The EEP Model The model <ul><li>The EEP model is made up of the following sub-models </li></ul><ul><li>Domestic </li></ul><ul><li>Non Domestic </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial </li></ul><ul><li>Traffic flow </li></ul><ul><li>Pollutant </li></ul><ul><li>Health </li></ul>Primary User Interface Data Highway Domestic energy use Non-domestic energy use Industrial energy use Traffic flow energy use Pollutant dispersal Health Sub-models Geographical Information System Framework
  9. 9. The EEP Model The Domestic sub-model Based on the SAP model Uses cluster analysis to group similar dwellings Assumptions made about the fabric Assumptions made about the heating systems
  10. 10. The EEP Model Data for the Domestic sub-model <ul><li>Rapid survey: </li></ul><ul><li>Age </li></ul><ul><li>Heated ground floor area </li></ul><ul><li>Window area (A) </li></ul><ul><li>End area </li></ul><ul><li>No. of storeys </li></ul><ul><li>Storey height (B) </li></ul><ul><li>No. of chimneys (C) </li></ul><ul><li>Façade </li></ul><ul><li>Assumptions: </li></ul><ul><li>Heating system </li></ul><ul><li>Water heating system </li></ul><ul><li>Type of fuel </li></ul><ul><li>Energy efficiency measures e.g. insulation </li></ul><ul><li>Information is collected from a variety of sources including: </li></ul><ul><li>Computer based ordnance survey maps </li></ul><ul><li>Site visits </li></ul><ul><li>Historical records including Ordnance Survey maps/Electoral Roll </li></ul>
  11. 11. The EEP Model Domestic sub-model Cluster analysis Cluster analysis is “A procedure that attempts to identify relatively homogeneous groups of cases based on selected characteristics, using an algorithm that can handle large numbers of cases. Divided the dwellings in to five built ages Assigned number of clusters according to size of age groups, giving a total of 100 clusters, for example in Neath Port Talbot; 34 % pre 1919, 12 % 1920 -1944, 27 % 1945 -1964, 17 % 1965 - 1979, 10 % post 1980 Performed a cluster analysis to group the dwellings Use the central dwelling as the exemplar of each cluster
  12. 12. The EEP Model Domestic sub-model assumptions Heating system assumptions were made from questionnaires; Heating type Pre 1965 Post 1965 Gas central 75.5% 79.5% Storage heaters 0.0% 3.0% Solid fuel central 11.0% 11.5% Oil central 5.5% 6.0% Gas room 6.5% 0.0% Electric room 0.5% 0.0% Solid room 1.0% 0.0%
  13. 13. The EEP Model Health sub-model <ul><li>Health data taken and compared to built environment data; </li></ul><ul><li>Instance of self reported mould was compared to built form </li></ul><ul><li>Instance of accidents in the home were compared to built form </li></ul>
  14. 14. The EEP Model Health sub-model likelihood of accidents in the home People living in purpose built flats had twice the rate of overall injuries and more than five times the rate of poisoning compared with other homes Built form Odd ratio Detached 0.9 Terrace 1.1 Flat conversion 1.1 Flat purpose-build 2.1 Semi detached 1.0
  15. 15. The EEP Model The role of the EEP model is to assess various aspects of the built environment in order to find patterns and spot problems, helping to predict future behaviour and find suitable solutions. EEP can provide key information to lead the path towards improving the current urban built environment. Next steps? - Planning - Action!
  16. 17. http://www.retrofit2050.org.uk/ The aim of the research is to develop the knowledge and capability to overcome the separation between the ‘what’ and ‘how’ of urban scale retrofitting in order promote a managed socio-technical transition in built environment and urban infrastructure.
  17. 18. <ul><li>The research will </li></ul><ul><li>Explore and advance theoretical and practical understandings of processes of systems innovation and transition in an urban context – what is the structure of a city </li></ul><ul><li>Analyse the social and technical processes underpinning such transitions through case studies, modelling and international comparison – understand past changes </li></ul><ul><li>Identify and characterise technological and systems innovations which will underpin a transition to sustainability in the built environment between 2020 and 2050 – what’s the next big thing(s) </li></ul><ul><li>Articulate and appraise region-specific visions and pathways for urban scale retrofitting of the built environment - model and display </li></ul>
  18. 19. Work Package 1 Urban Transitions Analysis Work Package 2 Urban Foresight Laboratory (2020-2050) Work Package 3 Urban Options, Visualisation and Pathways Analysis EEP and STEEV modelling Work Package 4 Synthesis, Comparison & Knowledge Exchange Urban Foresight Panel Scenario Workshops Produces set of contextual ‘socio-technical’ scenarios for testing in WP3 Project Structure
  19. 20. To wrap up, We are fundamentally looking for the ‘leap’ or ‘step change’ required to achieve the targets. Because targets are ambitious, but this is what we need to do in order to make our built environment sustainable.
  20. 21. Thanks for listening Any Questions? Presented by: Diana Waldron [email_address] In collaboration with: Simon Lannon Lannon@cardiff.ac.uk

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