On Global Manufacturing Renaissance 全球制造复兴论 Working Document  Dr. Jin Lu, Director EXUPOLI.net  吕锦博士,优启网董事会主任 Starting Dat...
An Quotation from John of Salisbury,  The Metalogicon, 1159-60   <ul><li>Our own generation enjoys the legacy bequeathed t...
About Author ( 关于作者) : <ul><li>Jin Lu received B.S. and M.S in Mechanical Eng. from CSU (P.R. China). Dr. Jin Lu received ...
About EXUPOLI.net (关于优启网) : <ul><li>Dr. Jin Lu founded EXUPOLI.net in January 2009, after Nortel Networks went into chapte...
Contents <ul><li>From Globalization to Global Manufacturing Renaissance (Introduction)  </li></ul><ul><li>Party One:  A  C...
From Globalization to Global Manufacturing Renaissance (Introduction) <ul><li>Globalization: the diminution or elimination...
Party One:  A  Comparative Study in the Renaissance of the 12 th  Century & the Renaissance of the 21 th  Century <ul><li>...
Outline of the Party One <ul><li>Renaissance of the 12 th  Century (R12) </li></ul><ul><li>Characteristics of R12 </li></u...
Renaissance of the 12 th  Century (R12) <ul><li>R12 was a period of  many changes  at the outset of the High Middle Ages, ...
Characteristics of R12 (P. & S.) <ul><li>P olitics &  S cholasticism [A.1] </li></ul><ul><ul><li>R12 built on the spread o...
Characteristics of R12 (2.  T. & C. ) <ul><li>Trade & Commerce </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Power of Merchants </li></ul></ul...
Characteristics of  R12  (3.1. Sci. 2.1K Ys)
Characteristics of R12 (3.2.  Sciences ) <ul><li>Students were eager for knowledge and sought it out with enthusiasm & the...
Characteristics of R12 (3.3. Tech) Paper manufacture began in Spain around 1100, and from there it spread to France and It...
Significant Achievements in R12 <ul><li>The western Europe of R12 can be characterized as a flowering of civilization (hum...
Renaissance of the 21 th  Century (R21) <ul><li>Problem: Globalization moves manufacture jobs from developed economy into ...
Characteristics of R21 (Crises & Jobs) <ul><li>Our Ultimate Objective Is to Provide More and Better Jobs for Our Citizens ...
Characteristics of R21 (Globalization) <ul><li>Globalization is the process by which markets integrate worldwide, which is...
Characteristics of R21 (ICT) <ul><li>The Age of Information and Communication Technology (ICT)  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In 2...
Characteristics of R21 (M. Jobs Loss) <ul><li>M anufacturing  Job   Loss es in Developed Economy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>U.S...
Characteristics of R21 (USA Jobs) <ul><li>Between May 1999 and May 2009, employment in the private sector only rose by 1.1...
Characteristics of R21 (Suggestions) <ul><li>To devote public funding to developing infrastructure and the technological b...
Characteristics of R21 (A.M.R.) <ul><li>A merican  M anufacture  R enaissance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>MIT forum (march 31, 2...
Comparative Study on R12 & R21 student eager for knowledge, translation from English to Chinese student eager for knowledg...
Characteristics of R21 (G. M. R) <ul><li>G lobal  M anufacture  R enaissance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>China: (1) high-labor-c...
R21 Anticipations <ul><li>More Students to China </li></ul><ul><ul><li>sending 100,000 American students to China by the y...
Conclusions from Party One <ul><li>The Similarities of R12 & R21 are Humanity,  Democracy, Multidimensional Trade/Commerce...
Party Two: Currency War III (CWIII) –  from End of Bretton Woods Era to Competitive Devaluation
Outline of the Party Two <ul><li>Timeline of the of Currency Diplomacy </li></ul><ul><li>The Plaza Accord & Lost Decade </...
Timeline of the of Currency Diplomacy <ul><li>Rates: 1995 ~ 2005 for 10 Yrs 8.28 RMB/US$ Mid-2008 ~ April 2010 ≈ $ 6.84 RM...
The Plaza Accord & Lost Decade <ul><li>The Plaza Accord-The World Intervenes In Currency Markets (signed by G-5)  </li></u...
What Does “Lost Decade” Mean for R21 (JP)? <ul><li>Detour the Investments from 2 nd  Industry into 3 rd  one, Diminished  ...
What Does “Lost Decade” Mean for R21 (G.)? <ul><li>G lobal Effects of JP’s “Lost Decade” - Lost the Global Role Mode of:  ...
<ul><li>Currencies of Asian Countries were Deeply Depreciated </li></ul><ul><li>The Failure to Adequately Build Capacity i...
China’s Role in Rescue Hong Kong <ul><li>Asian Financial Crisis and Handover of the Colony Back to Chinese Administrative ...
The Rise of China – Pre/Post AF Crisis <ul><li>Enjoyed > 7% GDP Annual Growth in & after AF Crisis (@Fixed Currency Rate 8...
Burst Internet Bubble 1 & Telecom Meltdown <ul><li>Profits Vanishing, Companies Belly-up, Industry's Troubles Flatten the ...
Post {BIB1 & TMD} – (USA) <ul><li>(Corp. Scandals, Bankruptcies and Mergers)    Loss of $5 trillion in the Market Value o...
Post {BIB1 & TMD} – (EU) <ul><li>$300 Billion in Wireless Investment (1999~July 2001) </li></ul><ul><li>Trillions of Pound...
Post {BIB1 & TMD} – (China) <ul><li>>70% ICT Exports Wholly (or Partially) Owned By Foreign Firms </li></ul>Year-on-year p...
Post {BIB1 & TMD} (Export Jobs) <ul><li>Offshore (&) Outsourcing   </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Production or other Business Proc...
US Housing Bubble  <ul><li>Post BIB1 Recession: Psycho (V/R), M-Inc. Off-shoring, Job Shipped, Banks (Fines, Funds, Subpri...
Housing Bubble Bursting in USA Subprime mortgage collapse & World market  jitters -8.5% +81% 2008 $282 Bn Injected 25 Lend...
Wall Street Meltdown (Sept. 15, 2008 ~) <ul><li>Wall Street Meltdown Signaled by Lehman Brothers’ Bankruptcy (the biggest ...
Post Wall Street Meltdown (2008~09) <ul><li>Bankruptcies, Merger & Split </li></ul>Feb. 2000 - $168 B   $2.5B  |Dec. 10, 2...
Currency War III  (2010 ~ … ) <ul><li>Competitive Devaluate one’s own Currency </li></ul>Brazil FM Some version of the wor...
Should We Blame on the Math Models? <ul><li>“ A FLAW IN THE MODEL … THAT DEFINES HOW THE WORLD WORK” </li></ul>Recipe for ...
Weak and Bumpy Global  Recovery <ul><li>The global economic recovery is slowing, with world growth projected at 4 percent ...
Conclusions from Party Two <ul><li>The Root Cause of Current World Economic Difficulties Is from the Currency Manipulation...
Appendix 1 (A.1) Politics, Religions & Scholasticism in The 12 th  Century Renaissance AD 800-1200
Politic, Philosophic and Religious Leaders  [I] Doctor of Church [II] : “The Importance of the Saints and Devotion to Them...
Churches and Canon Laws  Gratian’s collection of canon laws known as the Decretium Gratiani (c.1140) Division between the ...
Medieval Universities <ul><li>The first universities (University of Bologna (1088), University of Paris (teach. mid-11th c...
References for Appendixes <ul><li>The people who inhabited western Europe produced great leaders who gave form to their as...
Comments from Readers - Working Documents will be Updated Every Week (Friday 8:00AM)
Ms. Volpe (Mahzad) Pakzad Cross Functional Engineer/Designer, Project Manager; Manufacturing Oper. Expert, Leadership Trai...
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On Global Manufacturing Renaissance (全球制造复兴论)

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Globalization: the diminution or elimination of state-enforced restrictions on exchanges across borders and the increasingly integrated and complex global system of production and exchange that has emerged as a result

Global Manufacturing Renaissance: the complements of globalization by harmonizing the industrial relationships from uncontrolled marketing competitions to rational laws of the global business ecosystem

Contents:

From Globalization to Global Manufacturing Renaissance (Introduction)

Party One: A Comparative Study in the Renaissance of the 12th Century & the Renaissance of the 21th Century

Party Two: Currency Wars – from Plaza Accord to Competitive Devaluation

Party Three: Manufacturing Renaissance in USA

Party Four: Global Manufacturing Renaissance

Party Five: Robotics in Science Fiction or Reality?

Conclusions

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  • [ 1]Tom G. Palmer of the Cato Institute in http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization#Definitions
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_of_the_12th_century
  • 1.) The 12th Century Renaissance ( http://www.historyguide.org/ancient/lecture26b.html )
  • (1) http://www.ehow.com/about_7573550_trade-commerce-12th-century.html
  • 1. http://www.historyguide.org/ancient/lecture26b.html
  • 1. http://www.historyguide.org/ancient/lecture26b.html
  • (2) http://www.rhymes.org.uk/a11-blow-wind-blow.htm (3) http://baike.baidu.com/view/1080967.htm (4) http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhu_Yu_(author )
  • A&amp;S&amp;T- Arts&amp; Sciences &amp; Technologies
  • NAE – National Academy of Engineering
  • 1.) http://www.g20.org/Documents2011/11/Cannes%20Action%20plan%204%20November%202011.pdf 2.) http://www.g20.org/pub_communiques.aspx
  • http://www.census.gov/econ/ict/xls/2007/Summary%20of%20Findings.htm $14,074.2 Billion GDP of USA http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0104575.html
  • http://rlwilsonconsulting.wordpress.com/2008/12/26/us-manufacturing-job-losses-20-since-2000/ http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001-x/2009102/article/10788-eng.htm (3) http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Sectoral_productivity_at_regional_level
  • http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2009/06/a_lost_decade_f.html
  • http://relooney.fatcow.com/0_New_10530.pdf
  • http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/future-manufacture-0331.html http://relooney.fatcow.com/0_New_10530.pdf
  • http:// www.qualityinspection.org /trends-china-manufacturing/ http://www.globalintelligence.com/insights-analysis/asia-news-update/asia-news-update-june-3-2011/singapore-asian-manufacturing-data-highlight-slowi/ http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/auto/automobiles/car-sales-fall-by-24-in-oct-rising-interest-rates-fuel-costs-weigh/articleshow/10673614.cms
  • http://chronicle.com/article/We-Need-a-National-Effort-to/126253/
  • “ Currency Wars” http://www.fgmr.com/currency-wars.html
  • http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11484532 http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/China-Currency-Bill-Passes-US-Senate-131558133.html How to stop a currency war http://www.economist.com/node/17251850
  • The Plaza Accord: The World Intervenes In Currency Markets Read more:  http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/plaza-accord.asp#ixzz1dPPuQqKS The Lost Decade: Lessons From Japan&apos;s Real Estate Crisis Read more:  http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/japan-1990s-credit-crunch-liquidity-trap.asp?&amp;viewed=1&amp;viewed=1#ixzz1dPU2mL6p http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2010/02/15/japans-economy-awakening-from-lost-decade/
  • High-Tech Industries Drive Global Economic Activity ( http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/issuebrf/sib98319.htm ) Chapter 3 Economy http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c03cont.htm
  • Japan as Number One: Lessons for America ( Ezra Vogel ) Japan as Number Two: Competitive Problems and the Future of Alliance Capitalism after the Burst of the Bubble Boom Christian Berggren Swedish Institute for Work Life Research, Stockholm http://www.prolificliving.com/blog/2007/04/08/joseph-finder-company-man/ Digital Manufacturing / CAM ( http:// www.acuityinc.com /solutions/digital-manufacturing-cam ) The Concept of Business Ecosystems ( http://valuestream2009.wordpress.com/2010/10/26/redwood-forests-provide-a-clue-to-business-sustainability-and-a-greener-supply-chain/ )
  • Economic History of Hong Kong http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/crash/etc/cron.html http:// eh.net/encyclopedia/article/schenk.hongkong Ten years on How Asia shrugged off its economic crisis http://www.economist.com/node/9432495 Heeding the Lessons of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis as Wall Street Bleeds http://asiasociety.org/business/economic-trends/heeding-lessons-1997-asian-financial-crisis-wall-street-bleeds
  • US played substantial role in rise of China‘ http://www.indianexpress.com/news/us-played-substantial-role-in-rise-of-china/874513/
  • http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/01_17/b3729007.htm
  • http://www.imaa-institute.org/statistics-mergers-acquisitions.html#TopMergersAcquisitions_Worldwide Wall Street Fine Tracker  http://www.forbes.com/2002/10/24/cx_aw_1024fine.html AOL to Spin Off Dec. 9, Begin Trading Dec. 10 (Plus Full Press Release) http://allthingsd.com/20091116/aol-to-spin-off-december-9-begin-trading-december-10/
  • Telecom Meltdown http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id =006KLY Vodafone seals Mannesmann deal   http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/630293.stm http://www.scribd.com/doc/56908767/Telecom-Crash-Course The Tidal Wave Bearing Down on Telecom http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/feb2002/nf2002027_9764.htm Telecoms meltdown continues http://www.computerweekly.com/news/2240045117/Telecoms-meltdown-continues
  • The impact of the crisis on ICTs and their role in the recovery http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/33/20/43404360.pdf
  • Offshoring: Learn To Love It: http://www.crn.com/news/channel-programs/18841772/offshoring-learn-to-love-it.htm (Case Study: The Reference )
  • http:// www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context = va&amp;aid =10529 FFIEC Press Releases July 26, 2004 http://www.ffiec.gov/hmcrpr/hm072604.htm
  • http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/North-America/United-States/Price-History
  • The Wall Street crisis and the failure of American capitalism http://wsws.org/articles/2008/sep2008/lehm-s16.shtml
  • Citigroup shares: No longer toxic? http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/09/news/companies/Citi_shares.fortune/ Archive for the &apos;Citigroup&apos; Category http://mortgage.ocregister.com/category/company-watch/citigroup / AOL to Spin Off Dec. 9, Begin Trading Dec. 10 (Plus Full Press Release) http://allthingsd.com/20091116/aol-to-spin-off-december-9-begin-trading-december-10/
  • http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1726247 http://www.actuaries.org/ASTIN/Colloquia/Helsinki/Presentations/Embrechts.pdf
  • One of the 33 doctor of the Catholic Church Great kings like Henry II of England (1133-1189) drew their strength from a general public&apos;s desire for law and order.
  • http://www.historyguide.org/ancient/lecture26b.html (in The 1st paragraph) http:// johost.eu/?oid =54&amp;act=&amp;area=3&amp;ri=4&amp;itid=
  • On Global Manufacturing Renaissance (全球制造复兴论)

    1. 1. On Global Manufacturing Renaissance 全球制造复兴论 Working Document Dr. Jin Lu, Director EXUPOLI.net 吕锦博士,优启网董事会主任 Starting Date 2011 年 10 月 27 日星期四
    2. 2. An Quotation from John of Salisbury, The Metalogicon, 1159-60 <ul><li>Our own generation enjoys the legacy bequeathed to it by that which preceded it. We frequently know more, not because we have moved ahead by our own natural ability, but because we are supported by the menial strength of others, and possess riches that we have inherited from our forefathers. Bernard of Clairvaux used to compare us to punt dwarfs perched on the shoulders of giants. He pointed out that we see more and farther than our predecessors, not because we have keener vision or greater height, but because we are lifted up and borne aloft on their gigantic stature. </li></ul>
    3. 3. About Author ( 关于作者) : <ul><li>Jin Lu received B.S. and M.S in Mechanical Eng. from CSU (P.R. China). Dr. Jin Lu received Ph.D. in Optics, mechanical and electronics engineering from University of Ghent (Belgium) in 1994. He was post doctorial research follows in BECETL & IMM UC San Diego in 1995 and CAMT U. Sydney Australia in 1996. </li></ul>Dr. Lu has been working in Ottawa Optics Valley (Canada Capital Region) and Silicon Valley (CA, U.S.A.) as senior opto-mechanical packaging engineer since 1997. Dr. Lu has been one of the pioneers in the development of engineering sciences and manufacturing technologies for photonics/biophotonics packaging applications. He worked for JDSU and Nortel to develop flexible ultra precision assembly work cell & its based production chain for mass production of OC192 DWDM fiber optics components & subsystems. He co-founded a start-up EXUPOLI.net in 2009.
    4. 4. About EXUPOLI.net (关于优启网) : <ul><li>Dr. Jin Lu founded EXUPOLI.net in January 2009, after Nortel Networks went into chapter 11, to seek the solutions for the poor sustainability of Canadian Tech Businesses. The early work was focus on tunable laser technologies , both patents & known-hows. </li></ul>However, the learning leads to the understanding that the root cause of the failure of the Telecom Giant was the lack of Marketing Engineering Integration (MEI) in March 2009. The company has been focusing in MEI, which has been the bottleneck to prevent greatest successes of the internet revolution. EXUPOLI.net is developing interruptive Contact Center Technologies for bridging the markets of Canada & China.
    5. 5. Contents <ul><li>From Globalization to Global Manufacturing Renaissance (Introduction) </li></ul><ul><li>Party One: A Comparative Study in the Renaissance of the 12 th Century & the Renaissance of the 21 th Century </li></ul><ul><li>Party Two: Currency Wars – from Plaza Accord to Competitive Devaluation </li></ul><ul><li>Party Three: Manufacturing Renaissance in USA </li></ul><ul><li>Party Four: Global Manufacturing Renaissance </li></ul><ul><li>Party Five: Robotics in Science Fiction or Reality? </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
    6. 6. From Globalization to Global Manufacturing Renaissance (Introduction) <ul><li>Globalization: the diminution or elimination of state-enforced restrictions on exchanges across borders and the increasingly integrated and complex global system of production and exchange that has emerged as a result [1] </li></ul><ul><ul><li>the word &quot;globalization&quot; was first employed in a publication entitled Towards New Education in 1930, to denote a holistic view of human experience in education (Oxford English Dictionary) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Global Manufacturing Renaissance: the complements of globalization by harmonizing the industrial relationships from uncontrolled marketing competitions to rational laws of the global business ecosystem (defined by Dr. Jin Lu, 6:50 AM, Saturday, October 29, 2011 in the office of EXUPOLI.net, Ottawa, Ontario Canada) </li></ul>
    7. 7. Party One: A Comparative Study in the Renaissance of the 12 th Century & the Renaissance of the 21 th Century <ul><li>Written in The Dawn of Global Manufacturing Renaissance </li></ul><ul><li>6:55:46 AM, Saturday, October 29, 2011 </li></ul>
    8. 8. Outline of the Party One <ul><li>Renaissance of the 12 th Century (R12) </li></ul><ul><li>Characteristics of R12 </li></ul><ul><li>Significant Achievements in R12 </li></ul><ul><li>Renaissance of the 21 th Century (R21) </li></ul><ul><li>Characteristics of R21 </li></ul><ul><li>Comparative Study of R12 & R21 </li></ul><ul><li>R21 Anticipations </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions from the comparative Study </li></ul>
    9. 9. Renaissance of the 12 th Century (R12) <ul><li>R12 was a period of many changes at the outset of the High Middle Ages, including social, political and economic transformations, and an intellectual revitalization of Western Europe with strong philosophical and scientific roots . </li></ul><ul><li>These changes paved the way to later achievements such as the literary and artistic movement of the Italian Renaissance in the 15 th century (R15) and the scientific developments of the 17 th century (SD17) . </li></ul>
    10. 10. Characteristics of R12 (P. & S.) <ul><li>P olitics & S cholasticism [A.1] </li></ul><ul><ul><li>R12 built on the spread of monasticism and the associated increase in literacy by &quot;wandering scholars&quot; who traveled from country to country </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Legendary King Arthur: the King of Round Table & Knights of the Round Table - implying that everyone who sits there has equal status </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Translation from other cultures, especially ancient Greek works to Latin (from Islam), was an important aspect of both R12, focused almost entirely on translating and studying Greek and Arabic works of natural science, philosophy and mathematics </li></ul></ul>
    11. 11. Characteristics of R12 (2. T. & C. ) <ul><li>Trade & Commerce </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Power of Merchants </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The nobility in Europe held power during the 12th century, but the merchant class (guilds) pumped money into the economy through trade, which strongly influenced the politics of the time </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Religious Commerce: The Church owned a great deal of land all over Europe, including farmland. It sells the agriculture products at the local market. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sea Travel (Europe): Open sea and rivers allowed easier haulage of goods (muddy and pothole-ridden roads made overland transportation difficult). Italy dominated (its expertise in the field and its banking system). </li></ul></ul>
    12. 12. Characteristics of R12 (3.1. Sci. 2.1K Ys)
    13. 13. Characteristics of R12 (3.2. Sciences ) <ul><li>Students were eager for knowledge and sought it out with enthusiasm & the most advanced scholars knew that the Muslims of Islamic civilization had great storehouses of knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>They increased contact with the Islamic world in Spain, Sicily & Constantinople, which allowed Europeans to seek and translate the works of Hellenic and Islamic philosophers and scientists, especially the works of Aristotle (c. 4 th BCE) </li></ul><ul><li>Medieval university laid far greater emphasis on science than does its modern counterpart and descendent </li></ul>
    14. 14. Characteristics of R12 (3.3. Tech) Paper manufacture began in Spain around 1100, and from there it spread to France and Italy during the 12 th century. In Zhu Yu’s book “Ping Zhou Table Talks”: magnetic-needle compass for navigation at sea & Muslim merchants in China (1117 AD)
    15. 15. Significant Achievements in R12 <ul><li>The western Europe of R12 can be characterized as a flowering of civilization (humanism) with spreading of religious faith, increasing of the literacy & implementing laws & orders </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing of the trade & commerce stimulated the population growth and the public desires of the politics & economics involvements from guilds & churches </li></ul><ul><li>The achievements in A&S&T filled the gaps between that of Ancient Greeks & High Middle Age, which contributes to the future developments of A&S&T in R15 & SD17 </li></ul><ul><li>The above achievements encouraged the politics reforms, enforced by highest politics & religious Leaders </li></ul>
    16. 16. Renaissance of the 21 th Century (R21) <ul><li>Problem: Globalization moves manufacture jobs from developed economy into developing one, which leads the imbalance of the global trade that trigged the global recession in 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Dr. George M. C. Fisher pointed out two key aspects in R21 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assessing technology from a humanist perspective will be the greatest challenge we face </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If competitors can cooperate creatively, so can business and government </li></ul></ul><ul><li>R21 is a time of rethinking and optimism. Successful sciences & engineering have redefined the public’s expectations of what we can accomplish, especially how can we advance information technology to complement the self-correcting mechanisms of the Capitalist system </li></ul>
    17. 17. Characteristics of R21 (Crises & Jobs) <ul><li>Our Ultimate Objective Is to Provide More and Better Jobs for Our Citizens ,…(- THE CANNES ACTION PLAN FOR GROWTH AND JOBS). </li></ul>
    18. 18. Characteristics of R21 (Globalization) <ul><li>Globalization is the process by which markets integrate worldwide, which is driving up peoples’ expectations, creating new sources of competitions for businesses and opening new opportunities for the growth of the world wealth. </li></ul>
    19. 19. Characteristics of R21 (ICT) <ul><li>The Age of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In 2007, U.S. nonfarm businesses with employees spent a total of $264.2 billion (1.88% GDP) on noncapitalized and capitalized ICT equipment, including computer software (U.S. Census Bureau). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World Map of ICT Expenditure in 2005 (USA 100%) </li></ul></ul>
    20. 20. Characteristics of R21 (M. Jobs Loss) <ul><li>M anufacturing Job Loss es in Developed Economy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>U.S. Manufacturing job losses: 20% since 2000 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The share of Manufacturing jobs in Canada, declined from 14.9% in 1998 to 14.4% in 2004 before falling sharply to 11.5% in 2008 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EU’s total employment shrinks between 2000 and 2005, at an average of –1.1 % a year or a loss of 2.3 million jobs </li></ul></ul>
    21. 21. Characteristics of R21 (USA Jobs) <ul><li>Between May 1999 and May 2009, employment in the private sector only rose by 1.1% </li></ul><ul><li>Without a decade of growing government support from rising health and education spending and soaring budget deficits, the labor market would have been flat on its back. </li></ul>
    22. 22. Characteristics of R21 (Suggestions) <ul><li>To devote public funding to developing infrastructure and the technological base of the U.S. economy with the specific goal of restoring competitiveness and expanding employment in the tradable sector </li></ul><ul><li>The tax structure needs to be simplified and reconfigured to promote competitiveness, investment, and employment </li></ul><ul><li>The United States will have to experiment its way forward </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- In “The Impact of Globalization on Income and Employment: The Downside of Integrating Markets (Michael Spence, Jul/Aug 2011)” </li></ul></ul>
    23. 23. Characteristics of R21 (A.M.R.) <ul><li>A merican M anufacture R enaissance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>MIT forum (march 31, 2010): The Future of Manufacturing — Advanced Technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Boston Consulting Group (August 2011) Report: U.S. Manufacture Renaissance Starting by around 2015 to Gain 2 to 3 million jobs and an estimated $100 billion in output in seven industry clusters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Booz & Co. (Autumn 2011) Report: U.S. Manufacturing should be Able to Produce Around 20 Percent of GDP, Instead of 10% at Current Level. </li></ul></ul>
    24. 24. Comparative Study on R12 & R21 student eager for knowledge, translation from English to Chinese student eager for knowledge, translation from Islam to Latin Education problems better Income & Jobs Trade: (privates & governments) & Internet Trade: (Nobility, Guilds & Church) & Sea Travel Economy dual democratic systems & government intervenes round-table & public opinion Politics to justify the integrating markets from humanity perspective to make Christianity more human Humanity R21 R12 Issues
    25. 25. Characteristics of R21 (G. M. R) <ul><li>G lobal M anufacture R enaissance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>China: (1) high-labor-content products to more complex technologies based products (2) higher domestic consumption </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EU: Manufacture counts 17 % as total employment, but productivity diff. (12:1) (Old:New Member States) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Japan: 90% of Japan’s exports, but lost about 30% Manufacture Jobs from 1994 to 2008 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Car sales in India fell 23.8% in October (2011), the biggest monthly percentage decline since December 2000 </li></ul></ul>
    26. 26. R21 Anticipations <ul><li>More Students to China </li></ul><ul><ul><li>sending 100,000 American students to China by the year 2014 (President Obama, 2009, Shanghai) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Translation Manufacturing Knowledge from Chinese to English </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Selected Readings for R21 (China) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Humanity Perspectives to Justify the Integrating Markets (G20 Meetings, UN, EU, etc.) </li></ul>
    27. 27. Conclusions from Party One <ul><li>The Similarities of R12 & R21 are Humanity, Democracy, Multidimensional Trade/Commerce, Education & Translation </li></ul><ul><li>The Differences are much Sophistic High Technologies in R21, especially with Internet & Data Processing Capacity for Controlling Market Integrating Processes from Humanity Perspective </li></ul><ul><li>THE CANNES ACTION PLAN FOR GROWTH AND JOBS is Good Starting Point </li></ul>
    28. 28. Party Two: Currency War III (CWIII) – from End of Bretton Woods Era to Competitive Devaluation
    29. 29. Outline of the Party Two <ul><li>Timeline of the of Currency Diplomacy </li></ul><ul><li>The Plaza Accord & Lost Decade </li></ul><ul><li>Asian Financial (AF) Crisis & The Rise of China </li></ul><ul><li>Burst Internet Bubble 1 (BIB1) & Telecom Meltdown (TMD) </li></ul><ul><li>Housing Bubble Bursting (BHB) & Wall Street Meltdown (WSM) </li></ul><ul><li>Currency War III & Global Economic Recovery </li></ul>
    30. 30. Timeline of the of Currency Diplomacy <ul><li>Rates: 1995 ~ 2005 for 10 Yrs 8.28 RMB/US$ Mid-2008 ~ April 2010 ≈ $ 6.84 RMB/US$ </li></ul><ul><li>2009 The People's Bank of China Govenor Mr. Zhou, Proposes Replacing US$ as International Currency, with the SDR </li></ul><ul><li>2010 (in G20) China criticizes US Fed’s monetary easing (“Quantitative Easing 2”) as an example of currency wars </li></ul>
    31. 31. The Plaza Accord & Lost Decade <ul><li>The Plaza Accord-The World Intervenes In Currency Markets (signed by G-5) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>First global cooperation to revalue the exchange rate system </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Lost Decade </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cheap money policies in Japan: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>{  Consumption rate at home;  Land prices}  Asset bubble </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Burst the bubble years later  lost decade </li></ul></ul>
    32. 32. What Does “Lost Decade” Mean for R21 (JP)? <ul><li>Detour the Investments from 2 nd Industry into 3 rd one, Diminished the Economic Growth in Japan </li></ul>
    33. 33. What Does “Lost Decade” Mean for R21 (G.)? <ul><li>G lobal Effects of JP’s “Lost Decade” - Lost the Global Role Mode of: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Humanity in employment practices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hard working leader in computer integrated manufacture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ecosystem in relationship management </li></ul></ul>
    34. 34. <ul><li>Currencies of Asian Countries were Deeply Depreciated </li></ul><ul><li>The Failure to Adequately Build Capacity in Time to Prevent Currency Manipulation by Private Speculators </li></ul>
    35. 35. China’s Role in Rescue Hong Kong <ul><li>Asian Financial Crisis and Handover of the Colony Back to Chinese Administrative Control Coincidentally Happened in the same Year </li></ul><ul><li>A Collapse in Share Prices and the Property Market in Hong Kong </li></ul><ul><li>Hong Kong & Mainland China Step in to Defend their Currencies against Attack and Maintained their Currencies’ Exchange Rates with the U.S. Dollar rather than Devaluing </li></ul>
    36. 36. The Rise of China – Pre/Post AF Crisis <ul><li>Enjoyed > 7% GDP Annual Growth in & after AF Crisis (@Fixed Currency Rate 8.28 RMB ¥ /USD $ from 1995~2005) </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid and Sustained Growth via Exports (Weak, but Stable RMB) & FDI (Technologies + Markets) </li></ul><ul><li>Replacing the Role of the Four Asia Dragons (all hit by AF Crisis) – Bridging the APEC’s Economies </li></ul>% of GDP % of GDP Increase
    37. 37. Burst Internet Bubble 1 & Telecom Meltdown <ul><li>Profits Vanishing, Companies Belly-up, Industry's Troubles Flatten the Economy </li></ul>
    38. 38. Post {BIB1 & TMD} – (USA) <ul><li>(Corp. Scandals, Bankruptcies and Mergers)  Loss of $5 trillion in the Market Value of Companies (from March 2000 to October 2002) </li></ul>Accounting Scandals Nov. 1997 US$37 B  Bankruptcy July 2002 loss of just under $100bn <ul><li>Citi Pays Settlements: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>$2.65B over Worldcom (04) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$1.66B over Enron </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Wall Street Fines $12.00B (Jan. 2001 ~ July 2004) </li></ul>Dropped AOL from its Name 18 Sept. 2003
    39. 39. Post {BIB1 & TMD} – (EU) <ul><li>$300 Billion in Wireless Investment (1999~July 2001) </li></ul><ul><li>Trillions of Pounds in Paper Value has Simply Disappeared </li></ul>Merger Mannesmann with $183bn in Feb. 2000 3-year-old $10 bn Joint Venture unwound ($7 Bn Loss) Oct. 2001 Nearly Half of European Bank Lending in 1999 was to Telecom Companies ( $600 bn)
    40. 40. Post {BIB1 & TMD} – (China) <ul><li>>70% ICT Exports Wholly (or Partially) Owned By Foreign Firms </li></ul>Year-on-year percentage change, values, 3-month moving average
    41. 41. Post {BIB1 & TMD} (Export Jobs) <ul><li>Offshore (&) Outsourcing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Production or other Business Processes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>off-shoring (self owned) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>offshore outsourcing (contract out) </li></ul></ul></ul>
    42. 42. US Housing Bubble <ul><li>Post BIB1 Recession: Psycho (V/R), M-Inc. Off-shoring, Job Shipped, Banks (Fines, Funds, Subprime, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>1997–2005:Mortgage fraud increased by 1,411% </li></ul><ul><li>Government Policies Stimulated Housing Price (in Five States 25%  2004~2005): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lower US Federal funds rate from 6.5% to 1.76 % (11  2001) + 1% (2003) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>President Bush: Minority Home Owners’ Goal (2002) & American Dream Downpayment Act (2003) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Federal Reserve failed to use its supervisory and regulatory authority over banks, mortgage underwriters and other lenders (2001 ~2005) </li></ul></ul>
    43. 43. Housing Bubble Bursting in USA Subprime mortgage collapse & World market jitters -8.5% +81% 2008 $282 Bn Injected 25 Lenders Bankruptcy -9.7% +75% 2007 H.C. Index -- 40% -6.6% (M) (-10~-50%) +42% 2006 Subprime Loans Cut -3.3% 846,982 Properties 2005 Financial Market Gov. Y2Y Price Key Location F oreclosure (Y2Y) Year
    44. 44. Wall Street Meltdown (Sept. 15, 2008 ~) <ul><li>Wall Street Meltdown Signaled by Lehman Brothers’ Bankruptcy (the biggest in American history) and Merrill Lynch & Co. Taken over by Bank of America </li></ul><ul><li>Dow's Fall of over 50% in 17 months Followed by a Total Drop of 89% over the Next 16 Months </li></ul><ul><li>Large U.S. and European Banks Lost $2.8 Trillion ~2010 </li></ul><ul><li>US Household Wealth is Down $14 Trillion from Peak </li></ul><ul><li>The Crisis Rapidly Developed and Spread into a Global Economic Shock, Resulting in  next page </li></ul>
    45. 45. Post Wall Street Meltdown (2008~09) <ul><li>Bankruptcies, Merger & Split </li></ul>Feb. 2000 - $168 B $2.5B |Dec. 10, 2009| $35B Jan. 13, 2009 June 1, 2009
    46. 46. Currency War III (2010 ~ … ) <ul><li>Competitive Devaluate one’s own Currency </li></ul>Brazil FM Some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable Money and the world power
    47. 47. Should We Blame on the Math Models? <ul><li>“ A FLAW IN THE MODEL … THAT DEFINES HOW THE WORLD WORK” </li></ul>Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street (2009) Dr. David X. Li, CEO of China International Capital Corporation On Default Correlation: A Copula Function Approach (2000)
    48. 48. Weak and Bumpy Global Recovery <ul><li>The global economic recovery is slowing, with world growth projected at 4 percent in both 2011 and 2012, down from over 5 percent in 2010, the IMF said in its latest forecast. </li></ul>
    49. 49. Conclusions from Party Two <ul><li>The Root Cause of Current World Economic Difficulties Is from the Currency Manipulation </li></ul><ul><li>The World Economists & Experts in Information Technologies Have to Cooperate in Development of Advanced Global Financial Control Systems to Avoid Future Financial Meltdown </li></ul><ul><li>The World Anticipates the Wisdoms in both Governments of P. R. China & USA to Avoid WCIII </li></ul>
    50. 50. Appendix 1 (A.1) Politics, Religions & Scholasticism in The 12 th Century Renaissance AD 800-1200
    51. 51. Politic, Philosophic and Religious Leaders [I] Doctor of Church [II] : “The Importance of the Saints and Devotion to Them.” Scholasticism [III] to Reconcile the Varying Opinions of Christian Thinkers Significant amounts of modern France were under the control of Henry II Henry II Ruled as King of England (1154–1189), drew their strength from a general public's desire for law and order.
    52. 52. Churches and Canon Laws Gratian’s collection of canon laws known as the Decretium Gratiani (c.1140) Division between the Eastern and Western Churches in Atlas of the Historical Geography of the Holy Land
    53. 53. Medieval Universities <ul><li>The first universities (University of Bologna (1088), University of Paris (teach. mid-11th century, recogn. 1150), University of Oxford (teach. 1096, recogn. 1167), University of Modena (1175), University of Palencia (1208), University of Cambridge (1209), </li></ul>
    54. 54. References for Appendixes <ul><li>The people who inhabited western Europe produced great leaders who gave form to their aspirations. These leaders were supported by public opinion which for the most part was much more homogenous than it is today. </li></ul><ul><li>St. Bernard of Clairvaux (1090-1152) were almost entirely dependent upon public opinion. </li></ul><ul><li>PETER ABELARD (1079-1143) was a great teacher because he had an eager audience -- he could hardly live without the students who came from all over Europe to attend his classes at Paris. </li></ul>
    55. 55. Comments from Readers - Working Documents will be Updated Every Week (Friday 8:00AM)
    56. 56. Ms. Volpe (Mahzad) Pakzad Cross Functional Engineer/Designer, Project Manager; Manufacturing Oper. Expert, Leadership Trainer, Collaborative. <ul><li>@Jin- I finally found time (lunch time) to look at the slide show, but my company has a security block on internet, & I cannot load/look at it.  @Savo- I could argue with you about the Complexity of the subject brought up by Jin: &quot;The 1st key factor is that the Human is always ignored in the equations that control our economics systems & their elements.  Please add your comments on the topics!&quot;  It is quite simple: WE ALLOW power thirst and ruthless individuals to LEAD us and our countries, in the hope of a victorious control over MONEY/POWER, in search for happiness and security!!!!!  Sadly, we do not even know HUMAN NATURE and cannot realize the ability to nourish it to be empowered from within, and live a well balanced life! We have crucified, tortured, impeached and assassinated all those who wanted to help us and/or teach us otherwise! I think that Buddha would have been tortured/assassinated too, if he were not from royalty and protected somewhat!  Personally I am burned and burnt out trying to help HUMANS in general! I just hope that I can help myself & people whom can understand me and work with me, to live a decent and PROSPEROUS LIFE, instead of living a lie.  People want money, and power brought to them, not justice. Today’s “mediocre” HUMANS (not all f us) are responsible for ignoring, denying and corrupting their own nature and following leaders who falsely make promises to them. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>-Thursday Nov. 10, 2011 </li></ul></ul>

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