Political Smackdown: Senate and Gubernatorial Candidates Battle It Out on Social Media<br />Presented By: Jim Reynolds<br ...
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races<br /><ul><li>Setup
Senate Candidates from IL, CA, FL, DE, CT, KY, LA, NV, OH & PA
Gubernatorial Candidates from AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, MA, TX, PA & NY
Categories
State
Race (Senate or Governor)
Party Affiliation (Independent, Republican or Democrat)</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races<br ...
Volume steadily increasing leading up to elections
Conversation follows a weekly trend with decrease in chatter on weekends</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate & Gubern...
882k total mentions of candidates with a peak yesterday of 56k mentions</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate & Guberna...
Social Networks – 20%
Media Types – Other (Mainstream media) – 19.3%
Message boards – 18.8%
All Other Types – Less than 10%</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races<br />Analysis<br />Updated ...
The largest media type increase was Microblogs (Twitter) with an additional 116k mentions</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 ...
Message Board / Forum has picked up volume significantly leading up to the election</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Sena...
Public Social Network Chatter (Facebook) also followed a similar pattern on election day</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 –...
Harry Reid & Sharron Angle, both Senatorial candidates from Nevada rank 2nd & 3rd, respectively
Overall, the Republicans lead the conversation largely because of Christine O’Donnell (DE)</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010...
Rand Paul jump from 4th to 2nd with nearly 100k social media mentions</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Race...
Gubernatorial races in California, New York & Texas are most discussed
In the Senate races, there is more conversation about Republicans but not by a large margin</li></li></ul><li>Election 201...
Interestingly, Nevada & Kentucky both beat California
Ohio’s Senate race is the least discussed on social media</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate Races - Update<br />Ana...
Interestingly, Nevada & Kentucky both beat California
Ohio’s Senate race is the least discussed on social media</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races<br />Analy...
New York’s race has had a major increase recently due to a controversial Carl Paladino
Surprisingly, Pennsylvania ‘s Senate race is in last place</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races - Update<...
New York’s race has had a major increase recently due to a controversial Carl Paladino
Surprisingly, Pennsylvania ‘s Senate race is in last place</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Top 5 Senate Races<br />Kentu...
California Senate Race<br />Average percent of posts<br />Favorability Chart<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Barbara Boxer lead...
The volume of conversation around Boxer and Fiorina is roughly the same, but their favorability ratings differ
This race appears to be leaning towards the incumbent Boxer</li></ul>* Favorability is measured by diving the sum of posit...
California Senate Race<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>As we predicted Ba...
Florida Senate Race<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Kendrick Meek leads a...
Interestingly, Crist has the largest volume of conversation while Meek has the least
The volume would suggest that the race is between Rubio & Crist</li></ul>Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mention...
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2010 11-4 election slides hot topic final

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2010 11-4 election slides hot topic final

  1. 1. Political Smackdown: Senate and Gubernatorial Candidates Battle It Out on Social Media<br />Presented By: Jim Reynolds<br />jim.reynolds@alterian.com<br />twitter.com/jimmyrey<br />
  2. 2. Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races<br /><ul><li>Setup
  3. 3. Senate Candidates from IL, CA, FL, DE, CT, KY, LA, NV, OH & PA
  4. 4. Gubernatorial Candidates from AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, MA, TX, PA & NY
  5. 5. Categories
  6. 6. State
  7. 7. Race (Senate or Governor)
  8. 8. Party Affiliation (Independent, Republican or Democrat)</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races<br />Analysis <br /><ul><li>560K social media mentions of candidates since 3rd week of September
  9. 9. Volume steadily increasing leading up to elections
  10. 10. Conversation follows a weekly trend with decrease in chatter on weekends</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races<br />Analysis <br /><ul><li>Updated 11-3-2010
  11. 11. 882k total mentions of candidates with a peak yesterday of 56k mentions</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Microblogs – 36%
  12. 12. Social Networks – 20%
  13. 13. Media Types – Other (Mainstream media) – 19.3%
  14. 14. Message boards – 18.8%
  15. 15. All Other Types – Less than 10%</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races<br />Analysis<br />Updated 11-3-2010<br /><ul><li>There was virtually no change in the percentages of social media types
  16. 16. The largest media type increase was Microblogs (Twitter) with an additional 116k mentions</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races<br />Analysis:<br /><ul><li>Microblog (Twitter) & Social Network (Facebook et al) mentions follow identical patterns
  17. 17. Message Board / Forum has picked up volume significantly leading up to the election</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races<br />Analysis – UPDATED 11-3-2010<br /><ul><li>Microblogs (Twitter) had the largest number of mentions on election day
  18. 18. Public Social Network Chatter (Facebook) also followed a similar pattern on election day</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate Races<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />Analysis:<br /><ul><li>Christine O’Donnell has had over 100K mentions since mid-September
  19. 19. Harry Reid & Sharron Angle, both Senatorial candidates from Nevada rank 2nd & 3rd, respectively
  20. 20. Overall, the Republicans lead the conversation largely because of Christine O’Donnell (DE)</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate Races - Update<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />Analysis:– UPDATED 11-3-2010<br /><ul><li>Christine O’Donnell is still #1 with over 140k social media mentions
  21. 21. Rand Paul jump from 4th to 2nd with nearly 100k social media mentions</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Meg Whitman is the second most talked about candidate overall (after Christine O’Donnell)
  22. 22. Gubernatorial races in California, New York & Texas are most discussed
  23. 23. In the Senate races, there is more conversation about Republicans but not by a large margin</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races - Update<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />Analysis UPDATED 11-3-2010 <br /><ul><li>Very minimal changes from pre election except for 2% increase for Dem overall</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate Races<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Delaware is the most talked about Senate Race since mid-September due largely to Christine O’Donnell
  24. 24. Interestingly, Nevada & Kentucky both beat California
  25. 25. Ohio’s Senate race is the least discussed on social media</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Senate Races - Update<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Delaware is the most talked about Senate Race since mid-September due largely to Christine O’Donnell
  26. 26. Interestingly, Nevada & Kentucky both beat California
  27. 27. Ohio’s Senate race is the least discussed on social media</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Unlike the CA Senate race, the Gubernatorial race in California is more frequently discussed than the races in NY & TX combined
  28. 28. New York’s race has had a major increase recently due to a controversial Carl Paladino
  29. 29. Surprisingly, Pennsylvania ‘s Senate race is in last place</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races - Update<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Unlike the CA Senate race, the Gubernatorial race in California is more frequently discussed than the races in NY & TX combined
  30. 30. New York’s race has had a major increase recently due to a controversial Carl Paladino
  31. 31. Surprisingly, Pennsylvania ‘s Senate race is in last place</li></li></ul><li>Election 2010 – Top 5 Senate Races<br />Kentucky: Rand PaulJack Conway<br />Delaware:<br />Chris Coons<br />Christine O’Donnell<br />Florida:<br />Kendrick Meek<br />Marco Rubio<br />Charlie Crist<br />California: <br />Carly FiorinaBarbara Boxer<br />Nevada:<br />Sharron Angle<br />Harry Reid<br />
  32. 32. California Senate Race<br />Average percent of posts<br />Favorability Chart<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Barbara Boxer leads Carly Fiorina in favorability*
  33. 33. The volume of conversation around Boxer and Fiorina is roughly the same, but their favorability ratings differ
  34. 34. This race appears to be leaning towards the incumbent Boxer</li></ul>* Favorability is measured by diving the sum of positive and neutral mentions by the sum of positive, neutral and negative mentions<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  35. 35. California Senate Race<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>As we predicted Barbara Boxer won kept her Senate Seat</li></ul>* Favorability is measured by diving the sum of positive and neutral mentions by the sum of positive, neutral and negative mentions<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />
  36. 36. Florida Senate Race<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Kendrick Meek leads all candidates in favorability while Charlie Crist is last
  37. 37. Interestingly, Crist has the largest volume of conversation while Meek has the least
  38. 38. The volume would suggest that the race is between Rubio & Crist</li></ul>Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  39. 39. Florida Senate Race – Update<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>As we predicted the Race was certainly between Rubio and Crist, but Rubio won in a landslide</li></ul>Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  40. 40. Delaware Senate Race<br />Average percent of posts<br />Favorability Chart<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Chris Coons has a slight advantage over Christine O’Donnell in terms of favorability *
  41. 41. O’Donnell dominates the conversation with 84% of the total posts
  42. 42. This race is leaning toward Chris Coons</li></ul>*Negative commentary is tied to O’Donnell<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  43. 43. Delaware Senate Race - Update<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>As we predicted Chris Coons won this seat for the Democrats </li></ul>*Negative commentary is tied to O’Donnell<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />
  44. 44. Kentucky Senate Race<br />Average percent of posts<br />Favorability Chart<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Jack Conway has a 4% favorability lead to Rand Paul
  45. 45. Rand Paul owns 74% of the conversation vs. 26% by Jack Conway
  46. 46. If Rand Paul continues to trend upward in favorability he could win the race.</li></ul>Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  47. 47. Kentucky Senate Race<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>As we predicted Rand Paul won this seat and overall was the 2nd most talked about candidate</li></ul>Number of Mentions Chart<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />
  48. 48. Nevada Senate Race<br />Average percent of posts<br />Favorability Chart<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Harry Reid leads Sharron Angle in favorability
  49. 49. Harry Reid also has a 14% lead in volume of conversation
  50. 50. This race looks very good for Harry Reid</li></ul>Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  51. 51. Nevada Senate Race<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>As we predicted Harry Reid kept his seat and defeated Sharron Angle</li></ul>Number of Mentions Chart<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />
  52. 52. Election 2010 – Top 5 Gubernatorial Races<br />Texas:<br />Rick Perry<br />Bill White<br />California:<br />Jerry Brown<br />Meg Whitman<br />Massachusetts:<br />Tim Cahill<br />Deval Patrick<br />Charlie Baker<br />Florida: <br />Rick Scott<br />Alex Sink<br />New York:<br />Andrew Cuomo<br />Carl Paladino<br />
  53. 53. California Gubernatorial Race<br />Average percent of posts<br />Favorability Chart<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Jerry Brown leads Meg Whitman in favorability
  54. 54. Whitman is beating Brown by 5% in volume of conversation
  55. 55. This is one of the most challenging races to predict</li></ul>Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  56. 56. California Gubernatorial Race – Update<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>As we predicted this race was going to be very close and it was with Jerry Brown winning out over Meg Whitman</li></ul>Number of Mentions Chart<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />
  57. 57. New York Gubernatorial Race<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Andrew Cuomo leads Carl Paladino by more than 3% in favorability
  58. 58. Paladino leads Cuomo by 10% in volume of conversation, due largely to a recent spike
  59. 59. This race appears to be in favor of Cuomo</li></ul>Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  60. 60. New York Gubernatorial Race - Update<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>As we predicted Andrew Cuomo won over Carl Paladino</li></ul>Number of Mentions Chart<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />
  61. 61. Texas Gubernatorial Race<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Bill White has a slight advantage over Rick Perry in favorability
  62. 62. Perry has a 16% lead over Bill White in chatter
  63. 63. It appears that Democrat White has a chance in the Texas race</li></ul>Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  64. 64. Texas Gubernatorial Race - Update<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>As we incorrectly predicted we felt that Bill White had a stronger chance in this race which he didn't </li></ul>Number of Mentions Chart<br />Percentage of Conversation<br />
  65. 65. Florida Gubernatorial Race<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Alex Sink has a slight .6% lead over Rick Scott in favorability
  66. 66. Rick Scott racks up nearly 30% more conversations than Alex Sink
  67. 67. This race appears to be in Rick Scott’s favor</li></ul>Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  68. 68. Florida Gubernatorial Race - Update<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>As we predicted this race was Rick Scott’s to win, which he did.</li></ul>Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  69. 69. Massachusetts Gubernatorial Race<br />Average percent of posts<br />Favorability Chart<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>Deval Patrick leads in favorability over the other 2 candidates but is followed closely by Charlie Barker & Tim Cahill
  70. 70. Deval Patrick is in the lead with volume of conversation as well
  71. 71. This race seems to be in Patrick’s favor</li></ul>Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />
  72. 72. Massachusetts Gubernatorial Race - Update<br />Favorability Chart<br />Average percent of posts<br />Analysis<br /><ul><li>As we predicted Deval Patrick kept his governorship.</li></ul>Percentage of Conversation<br />Number of Mentions Chart<br />

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