Innovation Economy:
Resist the hype but don¡¯t ignore the realities


                              Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf
...
‫‪WIKIPEDIA‬‬
             ‫‪STKI‬‬
                                ‫מתוך ויקיפדיה האנציקלופדיה החופשית‬
                 ...
3
All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 74 444 74 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info   4
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info   5
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info   6
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info   7
Inviting you to my office




All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
and to my library.........




All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
This presentation is dangerous....
         It will make people think
•   I do not predict because..
•   Innovation
•   Im...
If I could have predicted this ??




“When the network becomes as fast as the
 processor, the computer hollows out and
  ...
So: I cannot “predict” any one in particular
                  but…..
Exponential Growth in logarithmic plot




                                                 15
                           ...
16
www.KurzweilAI.net
17
www.KurzweilAI.net
18
www.KurzweilAI.net
19
www.KurzweilAI.net
Economic progress takes place by overlapping surges
    DRIVEN BY SUCCESSIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS

Technological
    ...
THOMAS KUHN: Paradigm Shift
• we do not advance in steady, even progress but in a
series of peaceful interludes punctuated...
Prof. Carlota Perez :
TECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFTS




  All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 79...
FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN
            230 YEARS




   All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9...
TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS IN EACH GREAT SURGE

       Degree                    INSTALLATION PERIOD              Turning      ...
Recurring phases of each great surge




    All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki...
The changing face of the last 100 years




      All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www...
During the deployment phase: unprecedented
   opportunities and new business models




      All Rights Reserved @STKI Mo...
THE 4 MODELS OF GROWTH ESTABLISHED
UNDER THE PREVIOUS (MASS PRODUCTION) PARADIGM


     • Soviet socialism
     • Fascism ...
Three directions of the
        current paradigm shift




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FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT




    All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.st...
Paradigm Shift = Disruptive Technologies
“Disruptive technologies                                      Disruptive technolo...
Technologies that have experienced
                disruptive shifts:
• Film chemical based photography – digital photogra...
Characteristics of disruptive technologies
1.Current customers of established firms are not
  interested in the technology...
Disruptive technologies
• Introduction of the IBM Mainframe ( 1960’s)




• Introduction of the Apple II (1978), IBM PC (1...
NEW TECHNOLOGIES COME WRAPPED IN THE OLD .
                   ..
               The first automobiles
               still...
Global Innovation Index
Dr. Soumitra Dutta                       6 SWITZERLAND
                                         7 ...
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change is the
                                      process by which
                                     the future invad...
Resilience: Not only the
ability to recover from a
change or shock.




Resilience: Not
only the capacity of
people to cop...
RESILIENCE: The rate at which any system
IT RESILIANCE:
 returns to a single steady state following a
 system perturbation...
Stress / resilience in the genes ?
4Stress/ resilience:
   • Brain releases serotonin
   • Kills off neurons if not metabo...
History of Innovation




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The future is really only an
        innovation problem
How do we find the future we prefer?




Innovation is the ability...
Innovation versus Creativity

                                                                                            ...
TIMING in INNOVATION




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All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
“I’m an inventor.
                I became interested
                in long term trends
                because an
     ...
Innovation IS strategy: from BUILD to CREATE


        Red Ocean Strategy                                          Blue Oc...
Innovation:
                                        which one?




Water drum




                                        ...
METAweb
             pushes need for “new CIO”

                Innovation



                                            ...
THE POWER OF BEING CONNECTED
            CONSUMER 2.0
           Co-Creators

Control                 Cash

    The birth ...
Some background


Your Text here                                                                           Your Text here
...
Books of the 1980-90s
  -” No institution can possibly survive if it needs
  geniuses or supermen to manage it.
   It must...
New era




All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
BOOK OF THE 1990’s
• Introduced the business world
  to rethinking operations.
• Demonstrated how process
  redesign can y...
BOOK OF 2003
copied: “The Myth of Real Time Information”, HBR 1966




                                                   ...
Book of 2005
• Thomas Friedman
  – 3 billion people (consumers & producers)
    entered the world economies
     • Eastern...
Book of 2008
• Stephen Baker introduces us to the
  mathematical wizards who are digging
  through our data to decode us a...
Math based word cloud




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Moving from PRODUCT to a SERVICE ?
• Represents a change in BUSINESS MODEL ?

• Represents a “disruptive” change ?

      ...
Wisdom of Clouds : quot;cloud computingquot;
4What's revolutionary is not cloud computing itself
 but how the pieces have ...
What is Cloud Computing?
   1. data and services reside in massively scalable data
   centers
   2. accessed from any conn...
Cloud Computing Architecture
                                                                                             ...
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Cloud Computing Modularity

              Desktop as a service

            Software as a service
           (standard app...
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Computing and Communication Technologies
          Evolution: 1960-2010!



                                              ...
Which road should we take ?
Alice came to a fork in the road.
“Which road do I take?” she asked.
“Where do you want to go?...
Defining the new world
Nomad worker:
      Maslow’s hierarchy of needs




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Access Proliferation




    •   Video games                     •   Radio        •   Satellite Radio
    •   Email       ...
and the effect on IT…….




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The Peopleware Ecosystem
                                                                           Identity Management
  ...
A process of mutual shaping
 in a constantly changing context




     TECHNOLOGY                                         ...
Neo-nomads : new Bedouins flourishing in
    the coffeehouses of central Israel
• A new breed of worker, fueled by
  caffe...
Nomad Worker (2008) vs. Paris Existentialist (1950s)
4Tel-Aviv geek with earphones and
 laptop in Arcaffe (2008)
  • simul...
OLDENBURG: how infrastructure…
            4Time is primarily spent in :
                    • First (home) place: isolate...
Infrastructures influence work
• infrastructure makes it possible
  for people to work where they
  want, when they want, ...
2007: the year of my discovery
  • “SACRED ORDER OF THE EXTERNAL MIND”
         I could outsource mental tasks
    Life is...
An example:
    my romantic attachment to my “GPS”



                                                                    ...
Pinpoints a supermarket in MEXICO ?
    my son is calling from there




All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, I...
I have outsourced part of my life
            to external cognitive servants:
• No longer need a                          ...
Jimmy’s Touch Points
 Blog Sites                                                               Music Sites
               ...
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Beware of errors: internet full of them




      All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www...
“A Pattern Language”, Christopher Alexander
 4Each pattern describes a problem that
  occurs over and over again in our
  ...
And with access to these tools I can answer
  ANY question in less then 30 minutes




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Banks                           YOUtube                                Business                    Average person:
Insuran...
A powerful global conversation has begun
• Through the Internet, people are discovering and
  inventing new ways to share ...
Companies wake up !!!!!!!
4Customers are:
  •   writing about products on blogs                                           ...
Social Technographics™
           Josh Bernoff, co-author of Groundswell




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METAweb

METAweb phenomenon
(fi-nom-uh-non)
-noun
1. a rare or significant fact or event in the
   web that happened in 20...
METAweb




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Google versus ???
4Humanity emits the data (words, pictures, clicks,
 and searches are the raw material)
4Handful of cloud...
http://labs.google.com/




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Cloud Computing




A. IBM Introduces 'Blue Cloud' Computing CIO Today - Nov 15 2007
B. IBM, EU Launch RESERVOIR Research ...
Why does it bother me ?




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Google 10 years of innovation
Core Search             Ads                Monetization                 Communications      ...
Google ad
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All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info   104
Open for Business
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Internet 2 is not Web 2




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WEB 2 are WEB Technologies




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Internet2: 2.4 Gbps plumbing




                               109
Leveraging the Web for
                  Measureable Business Results


• Gone are the days when
  merely having an online...
In 2010: all new WEB experience
4Soon each website will become a 3 dimensional room
 that can be experienced alone or with...
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info   112
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
Create your own virtual space
      Chat and interact with your friends
      in rooms you design

    Express yourself
  ...
Ramona:
first live virtual performing recording
                                     artist.




    All Rights Reserved 2...
Second Life is the
                         biggest virtual world
• 40,000 concurrency (at any time)              Million ...
Currency: Linden$
• LindeX exchange operated by          US$ Spent by Users
  Linden Lab                              (in ...
Economy

• Reuters
• Banking and credit
• Stock markets
    –   SL Capital Exchange (US, 20 listings)
    –   World Stock ...
Advisory/Analyst firms




                                   We hope that during 2009 STKI will
                         ...
Business

              IBM



                          Preen       Motorati     Preen Principal:
              Cisco    ...
Academia, museums, non-profits




     Princeton          Art Gallery        Science Friday




   International     Comp...
Government, politics and collective action




                                                                       US C...
METAweb REVOLUTION
4The real, long-term change is just beginning to be felt,
 and anyone thinking about our economic futur...
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post 2008 innovation economy (old version)
post 2008 innovation economy (old version)
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post 2008 innovation economy (old version)

  1. 1. Innovation Economy: Resist the hype but don¡¯t ignore the realities Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf Research Fellow STKI jimmy@stki.info 1
  2. 2. ‫‪WIKIPEDIA‬‬ ‫‪STKI‬‬ ‫מתוך ויקיפדיה האנציקלופדיה החופשית‬ ‫חברת‬ ‫היא חברת ייעוץ בתחום מערכות מידע בישראל המפעילה צוות‬ ‫של אנליסטים לקוחות החברה כוללים בנקים חברות ביטוח‬ ‫משרדי ממשלה חברות היי טק ותעשייה חברות טלקום ועוד‬ ‫ד ר ג ימי חיים שוורצקוף ביצע את‬ ‫באמצע שנות ה‬ ‫המחקר הראשון מסוגו אודות שוק טכנולוגיית המידע בישראל‬ ‫המחקר הכה גלים בשוק הישראלי ונתן‬ ‫עבור חברת‬ ‫תמונת מצב קונקרטית בשוק שהיה עד אותה עת בלתי ממופה‬ ‫הקים את חברת‬ ‫ד ר שוורצקוף המשיך בחקר השוק ובשנת‬ ‫ששימשה כנציגות בישראל של חברת‬ ‫העולמית במסגרת החברה המשיך ד ר‬ ‫שוורצקוף לפרסם מחקרי שוק בתחום באופן קבוע וכן לספק‬ ‫נרכשה‬ ‫ייעוץ לחברות והארגונים המובילים בשוק בשנת‬ ‫העולמית על ידי חברת גרטנר וד ר שוורצקוף‬ ‫והאנליסטים המשיכו בפעילותם בישראל תחת השם‬ ‫‪All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info‬‬
  3. 3. 3 All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 74 444 74 www.stki.info
  4. 4. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 4
  5. 5. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 5
  6. 6. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 6
  7. 7. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 7
  8. 8. Inviting you to my office All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  9. 9. and to my library......... All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  10. 10. This presentation is dangerous.... It will make people think • I do not predict because.. • Innovation • Important books/authors • Open source • Cloud computing • Neo-nomads • METAweb • Virtual Worlds
  11. 11. If I could have predicted this ?? “When the network becomes as fast as the processor, the computer hollows out and spreads across the network.” – Eric Schmidt, did in 1993 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  12. 12. So: I cannot “predict” any one in particular but…..
  13. 13. Exponential Growth in logarithmic plot 15 www.KurzweilAI.net
  14. 14. 16 www.KurzweilAI.net
  15. 15. 17 www.KurzweilAI.net
  16. 16. 18 www.KurzweilAI.net
  17. 17. 19 www.KurzweilAI.net
  18. 18. Economic progress takes place by overlapping surges DRIVEN BY SUCCESSIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS Technological progress Time 40-60 years All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  19. 19. THOMAS KUHN: Paradigm Shift • we do not advance in steady, even progress but in a series of peaceful interludes punctuated by violent revolutions, • each conceptual world view is replaced by another PARADIGM SHIFT: 1. A change in world view that calls everything you know into question 2. Paradigm Shift Rate is now doubling every decade All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  20. 20. Prof. Carlota Perez : TECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFTS All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  21. 21. FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN 230 YEARS All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  22. 22. TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS IN EACH GREAT SURGE Degree INSTALLATION PERIOD Turning DEPLOYMENT PERIOD Point of diffusion of the Institutional recomposition and role shift technological revolution We Are Here Reaping of growth ‘Creative and social benefits destruction’ from the prevailing Paradigm shift paradigm big-bang Next big-bang Time 2O - 30 years ??? 2O - 30 years All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  23. 23. Recurring phases of each great surge All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  24. 24. The changing face of the last 100 years All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  25. 25. During the deployment phase: unprecedented opportunities and new business models All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  26. 26. THE 4 MODELS OF GROWTH ESTABLISHED UNDER THE PREVIOUS (MASS PRODUCTION) PARADIGM • Soviet socialism • Fascism (National Socialism) • Keynesian (social) democracy • State Developmentalism (in Third World) All compatible with the centralising and homogenising principles of the mass production (and mass consumption) paradigm All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  27. 27. Three directions of the current paradigm shift All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  28. 28. FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  29. 29. Paradigm Shift = Disruptive Technologies “Disruptive technologies Disruptive technology.. It's have enabled a larger trivial technology that population of less disrupts the business skilled or less wealthy model of the leading people to do things in a company, and that’s what more convenient, lower makes it so hard.” cost setting which Andy Grove, Intel historically could only be done by specialists in less convenient, higher cost settings.” Prof. Clayton Christensen All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  30. 30. Technologies that have experienced disruptive shifts: • Film chemical based photography – digital photography • Integrated PC manufacturing (IBM) – Modular PC manufacturing (Dell) • Centralized copy center (Xerox) – desktop workgroup photocopying(Canon) • In home vacuum tube radios (RCA) – portable transistor radios (Sony) • Department store full service retailing (JC Penney) – Big box discount retailing (Walmart) • Full service networked airlines (TWA, United) – Low cost point to point airlines (Southwest) • Drawing based animation (Disney) – Digital animation (Pixar) All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 74 444 74 www.stki.info
  31. 31. Characteristics of disruptive technologies 1.Current customers of established firms are not interested in the technology 2.Profit margins associated with the technology are much lower than existing technology All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 74 444 74 www.stki.info
  32. 32. Disruptive technologies • Introduction of the IBM Mainframe ( 1960’s) • Introduction of the Apple II (1978), IBM PC (1981), TCP/IP (1980’s), C/S Architectures (1980’s), SUN workstations (1980’s), Internet (1990’s) • Open Source (2002); Introduction of XML-based Composite Applications (2006), Service Oriented Architectures (2005), Virtualized Infrastructures (2004), Web2/internet 2 (2007), Cloud Computing (2008), METAweb (2008) All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  33. 33. NEW TECHNOLOGIES COME WRAPPED IN THE OLD . .. The first automobiles still looked like horse carriages One of the early automobiles 1898 …AND SO DO NEW INSTITUTIONS including production and consumption habits and norms All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info Reproduction: L. De Vries. 1972
  34. 34. Global Innovation Index Dr. Soumitra Dutta 6 SWITZERLAND 7 SINGAPORE 18 ISRAEL * INSEAD Professor 19 SOUTH KOREA 8 CANADA GLOBAL 9 NETHERLANDS 20 ICELAND I N N O VAT I O N 10 HONG KONG 3 0 K U WA I T INDEX 11 DENMARK Your Text here Your Text here which places: 12 SWEDEN 1 US 13 FINLAND * Because of 2 GERMANY 14 UAE HUMAN CAPITAL 3 UK 15 BELGIUM 4 JAPAN 16 LUXEMBOURG 5 FRANCE 17 AUSTRALIA All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 74 444 74 www.stki.info 36
  35. 35. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  36. 36. change is the process by which the future invades our lives Alvin Toffler All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 38
  37. 37. Resilience: Not only the ability to recover from a change or shock. Resilience: Not only the capacity of people to cope with change, stress or All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei catastrophe. Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 39
  38. 38. RESILIENCE: The rate at which any system IT RESILIANCE: returns to a single steady state following a system perturbation. The ability to provide an acceptable level of service in the face of faults and challenges to normal operation. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 40
  39. 39. Stress / resilience in the genes ? 4Stress/ resilience: • Brain releases serotonin • Kills off neurons if not metabolized 4MAOA gene with 5HTT: • Handles better stress and resilience Your Text here Your Text here • Produces molecules better at synthesizing serotonin 41 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  40. 40. History of Innovation All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  41. 41. The future is really only an innovation problem How do we find the future we prefer? Innovation is the ability to move from the existing to the preferred All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  42. 42. Innovation versus Creativity Vision Desired Innovation Future is the engine that drives transformation.. Present Default Future All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  43. 43. TIMING in INNOVATION All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  44. 44. All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  45. 45. “I’m an inventor. I became interested in long term trends because an invention has to Ray Kurzweil make sense in the world in which it is finished, not the world in which it is started.” -
  46. 46. Innovation IS strategy: from BUILD to CREATE Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Compete in existing market space. Create uncontested market space. Beat the competition. Make the competition irrelevant. The New Economic Age Exploit existing demand. Create and capture new demand. Make the value-cost trade-off. Break the value-cost trade-off. Align the whole system of a firm’s Align the whole system of a firm’s activities with its strategic choice of activities in pursuit of differentiation or low cost. differentiation and low cost. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 48
  47. 47. Innovation: which one? Water drum Mini disk All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  48. 48. METAweb pushes need for “new CIO” Innovation METAweb Time All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 50
  49. 49. THE POWER OF BEING CONNECTED CONSUMER 2.0 Co-Creators Control Cash The birth of Generation C Communicate Connected Creativity Content Creative Class Conversation Community Channel Consumer 2.0 51
  50. 50. Some background Your Text here Your Text here All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 52
  51. 51. Books of the 1980-90s -” No institution can possibly survive if it needs geniuses or supermen to manage it. It must be organized in such a way as to be able to get along under a leadership composed of average human beings”- Your Text here Your Text here “It is the means by which [organizations] create value- producing resources or endows existing resources with enhanced potential for creating value” “The customer rarely buys what the company thinks it is selling him” All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 53
  52. 52. New era All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  53. 53. BOOK OF THE 1990’s • Introduced the business world to rethinking operations. • Demonstrated how process redesign can yield breakthroughs in performance Plus 10,000 rebuttals • Put the word quot;reengineeringquot; And 20+ books into the English language. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  54. 54. BOOK OF 2003 copied: “The Myth of Real Time Information”, HBR 1966 Plus 2000+ rebuttals And 5 books All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  55. 55. Book of 2005 • Thomas Friedman – 3 billion people (consumers & producers) entered the world economies • Eastern Europe (ie: Rumania) • Asia (ie: China, India) – Now we have a “new” economy: • Interconnected (fiber everywhere) • Standardized (Open Source) • Supply Chains Management • Out-sourcing, In-sourcing, Off-shoring • Info sourcing All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  56. 56. Book of 2008 • Stephen Baker introduces us to the mathematical wizards who are digging through our data to decode us as patients, shoppers, voters, potential terrorists—even lovers. • translate the complexity of highly intelligent knowledge workers into the same types of equations and algorithms that are used to fine-tune shipping, sales and other BI applications. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  57. 57. Math based word cloud All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  58. 58. Moving from PRODUCT to a SERVICE ? • Represents a change in BUSINESS MODEL ? • Represents a “disruptive” change ? YES CLOUD COMPUTING and SOA are basically new “disruptive” ways of delivering IT All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  59. 59. Wisdom of Clouds : quot;cloud computingquot; 4What's revolutionary is not cloud computing itself but how the pieces have come together to make doing business in the cloud seem increasingly like an economic inevitability 4Cloud Your Text here is a simple concept: computing Your Text here • Software and services are delivered over the Web and through a browser. • No servers or client software to install. • Available anytime, anywhere, from any device connecting to the Internet All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 61
  60. 60. What is Cloud Computing? 1. data and services reside in massively scalable data centers 2. accessed from any connected devices over the internet. Web 2.0- enabled PCs, Businesses, 4+ billion phones by 2010 TVs, etc. from startups All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info to enterprises
  61. 61. Cloud Computing Architecture Apache Virtual Virtual Virtual Virtual Machine Machine Machine Machine Monitoring Agent Open Source Linux with Xen Data Center – 64 bit X86 Virtualized Infrastructure based on Open Source Linux & Xen Monitoring Provisioning Baremetal & Xen VM Monitoring Provisioning Application Server DBMS Manager Management Stack All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  62. 62. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 64
  63. 63. Cloud Computing Modularity Desktop as a service Software as a service (standard applications) Platform as a service (custom applications) Infrastructure as a service (compute, storage, network) All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  64. 64. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 66
  65. 65. Computing and Communication Technologies Evolution: 1960-2010! Cloud Computing Centralised Decentralised Control All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  66. 66. Which road should we take ? Alice came to a fork in the road. “Which road do I take?” she asked. “Where do you want to go?” responded the Cheshire cat. “I don’t know” Alice answered. “Then” said the cat, “it doesn’t matter”. Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 74 444 74 www.stki.info 68
  67. 67. Defining the new world
  68. 68. Nomad worker: Maslow’s hierarchy of needs All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  69. 69. Access Proliferation • Video games • Radio • Satellite Radio • Email • DVD • TiVo (Starhub PVR) • XBox LIVE • Ring Tones • Video On-Demand • Websites • TV • Newspapers • IM • Blogs • Podcasting • Search • Magazines • Cell Phone Source: Darwin Day Conference, Google
  70. 70. and the effect on IT……. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  71. 71. The Peopleware Ecosystem Identity Management WCM Composite App. Wireless Security Framework SSO Application Servers Expertise Location EAI & Mgmt. Collaboration Web Services Peopleware BAM BPM Directory E-Forms/Workflow E-Learning Search Development Tools Business Intelligence DM Knowledge Mgmt. All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  72. 72. A process of mutual shaping in a constantly changing context TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  73. 73. Neo-nomads : new Bedouins flourishing in the coffeehouses of central Israel • A new breed of worker, fueled by caffeine and using the tools of modern technology • They are typically armed with laptops and cell phones, paying for their office space and Internet access by buying coffee and muffins • This neo-nomads see themselves changing the nature of the workplace, if not the world at large. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  74. 74. Nomad Worker (2008) vs. Paris Existentialist (1950s) 4Tel-Aviv geek with earphones and laptop in Arcaffe (2008) • simultaneously cramming for exams, napping, instant- messaging, researching, reading and discussing, listening to music, browsing and e-mailing Your Text here Your Text here 4Paris existentialist watching the world go by at the café Les Deux Magots (1950s) • puffing a Gitane, napping and jotting down notes about being and nothingness All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 76
  75. 75. OLDENBURG: how infrastructure… 4Time is primarily spent in : • First (home) place: isolated • Second (work) place: isolated • Third places : neutral public space to connect and establish bonds. 4Big Changes now: Your Text here Your Text here • Between 1990-2006: people went to anonymous locations such as malls • Starting in 2007: good third place makes admission free or cheap (the price of a cup of coffee), offers comforts, is within walking distance and draws a group of regulars. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 77
  76. 76. Infrastructures influence work • infrastructure makes it possible for people to work where they want, when they want, how they want • SIX abilities needed: 1. Design – Beauty and uniqueness 2. Story – More than mere facts 3. Symphony – Seeing the big picture 4. Empathy – Understanding others 5. Play - Enjoyment 6. Meaning – Fulfillment All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 78
  77. 77. 2007: the year of my discovery • “SACRED ORDER OF THE EXTERNAL MIND” I could outsource mental tasks Life is a math problem and I have a calculator • MAGIC OF THE INFORMATION AGE Not that it allows us to know more It really allows us to know less All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 79
  78. 78. An example: my romantic attachment to my “GPS” GPS • EXTERNALIZE GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION FROM MY BRAIN • OUTSOURCE MAP READING SKILLS • ALLOW CALCULATION OF DRIVE TIME All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 80
  79. 79. Pinpoints a supermarket in MEXICO ? my son is calling from there All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 81
  80. 80. I have outsourced part of my life to external cognitive servants: • No longer need a • Musical taste: memory – ITunes – Google – Yahoo • Books and others: – Wikipedia – Amazon • Personal Information • Social Capital – Smartphone tells me – LinkedIn about birthdays, phones, addresses – Xing – Facebook All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 82
  81. 81. Jimmy’s Touch Points Blog Sites Music Sites Reads his friend’s postings Reads up on new cd releases Movie Sites Downloads Songs Buys tickets online Sports Sites Gets the latest updates on favorite teams Gaming Sites Looks for information Checks scores about Nascar games Google.com Searches for “what’s cool”
  82. 82. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  83. 83. Beware of errors: internet full of them All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  84. 84. “A Pattern Language”, Christopher Alexander 4Each pattern describes a problem that occurs over and over again in our environment 4Then describes the core of the solution to that problem, in such a way that you canhere this solution a million Your Text here Your Text use times over Without ever doing it the same way twice All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 86
  85. 85. And with access to these tools I can answer ANY question in less then 30 minutes All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 87
  86. 86. Banks YOUtube Business Average person: Insurance Slideshare Simulations 10-15 intimate Travel Blogs Training 150 social “Amazon” Newspapers Second Life 500-1500 weak “e-bay” WIKIPEDIA Sales links Transaction Sites Multimedia Sites Game Sites Social Sites Websites can no longer be islands Users want bridges elsewhere All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 88
  87. 87. A powerful global conversation has begun • Through the Internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge with blinding speed. • Networked markets are beginning to self-organize faster than the companies that have traditionally served them. • As a direct result and thanks to the web, markets are becoming better informed, smarter, and more demanding of qualities missing from most business organizations. • markets are getting smarter and getting smarter faster than most companies All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 89
  88. 88. Companies wake up !!!!!!! 4Customers are: • writing about products on blogs JOSH BERNOFF CHARLENE LI • recutting commercials on YouTube • defining companies on Wikipedia • ganging up in social networking sites like Text here Your Facebook Your Text here 4MOST COMPANIES SEE IT AS A THREAT All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 90
  89. 89. Social Technographics™ Josh Bernoff, co-author of Groundswell All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  90. 90. METAweb METAweb phenomenon (fi-nom-uh-non) -noun 1. a rare or significant fact or event in the web that happened in 2007 2. something that is impressive or extraordinary that happened in 2007 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 92
  91. 91. METAweb All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  92. 92. Google versus ??? 4Humanity emits the data (words, pictures, clicks, and searches are the raw material) 4Handful of cloud-wielding Internet giants like Google, Yahoo! or Amazon.com transform the info into insights, services, and, ultimately, revenue. Your Text here Your Text here All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 94
  93. 93. http://labs.google.com/ All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  94. 94. Cloud Computing A. IBM Introduces 'Blue Cloud' Computing CIO Today - Nov 15 2007 B. IBM, EU Launch RESERVOIR Research Initiative for Cloud Computing IT News Online - Feb 7 2008 C. Google and Salesforce.com in cloud computing deal Siliconrepublic.com - Apr 14 2008 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 96
  95. 95. Why does it bother me ? All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  96. 96. Google 10 years of innovation Core Search Ads Monetization Communications Collaboration ? 1995 1998 2000 2003 2004 2005 2007 ? All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 98
  97. 97. Google ad
  98. 98. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  99. 99. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 101
  100. 100. All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  101. 101. All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  102. 102. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 104
  103. 103. Open for Business
  104. 104. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 106
  105. 105. Internet 2 is not Web 2 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 107
  106. 106. WEB 2 are WEB Technologies All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 108
  107. 107. Internet2: 2.4 Gbps plumbing 109
  108. 108. Leveraging the Web for Measureable Business Results • Gone are the days when merely having an online presence was a business breakthrough. • Today's companies MUST leverage the power of the Web if they're to gain and maintain a competitive advantage. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 110
  109. 109. In 2010: all new WEB experience 4Soon each website will become a 3 dimensional room that can be experienced alone or with friends Your Text here Your Text here All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 111
  110. 110. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 112
  111. 111. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  112. 112. Create your own virtual space Chat and interact with your friends in rooms you design Express yourself Customize your avatar and stream personal photos and video Add your room to your site Invite your friends to chat and help decorate All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  113. 113. Ramona: first live virtual performing recording artist. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  114. 114. Second Life is the biggest virtual world • 40,000 concurrency (at any time) Million Square Meters of • 450,000 active users (last 7 days) Second Life Land • 1.4 m active users (last 2 months) • 10.6 m total accounts • 2 m assets created per day • 35 TB of user-created data • 800,000 unique items sold or traded per month • 500 events per day • 15 m concurrent scripts Total User • 10 Gbps peak bandwidth Hours (millions) Source: Linden Lab Source: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-graphs 116
  115. 115. Currency: Linden$ • LindeX exchange operated by US$ Spent by Users Linden Lab (in Millions) – Buy: USD $.30 transaction fee – Sell: 3.5% transaction fee • Monetary policy 270 L$ =$1 USD US $ Exchanged on Lindex (in Millions)
  116. 116. Economy • Reuters • Banking and credit • Stock markets – SL Capital Exchange (US, 20 listings) – World Stock Exchange (Australia, 15 listings) – VSTEX (Italy, 7 listings) – Ancapex (US, 3 listings)
  117. 117. Advisory/Analyst firms We hope that during 2009 STKI will be present there and will have it’s first SUMMIT H&R Block Island KAWG&F (Baltimore MD CPA firm), CPA Island BDO Stoy Accenture Hayward Island
  118. 118. Business IBM Preen Motorati Preen Principal: Cisco SpokesAvatar: Aimee Weber caLLie cLine Dr. Dobbs Life 2.0 Conference Best Buy’s H&R Block 120 Geek Squad
  119. 119. Academia, museums, non-profits Princeton Art Gallery Science Friday International Computer History American Cancer 121 Spaceflight Museum Museum Society Relay for Life
  120. 120. Government, politics and collective action US Congress – hot topic US Congress legislation European Campaign HQs Davos protest Community All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  121. 121. METAweb REVOLUTION 4The real, long-term change is just beginning to be felt, and anyone thinking about our economic future should consider this: • access to information is a democratizing force • makes it inexpensive and easy to collaborate and share information. Your Text here Your Text here • even the smallest companies can now have as big a presence online as a multinational corporation The revolution may have started in a garage in California but it has already crossed every border moving as freely around the globe as a cloud All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 123
  122. 122. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

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