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Dr Jimmy Schwarzkopf  Keynote @STKI Summit 2011

Dr Jimmy Schwarzkopf Keynote @STKI Summit 2011



IT game changers for 2011-2013, technologies, people and enterprises....

IT game changers for 2011-2013, technologies, people and enterprises....



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    Dr Jimmy Schwarzkopf  Keynote @STKI Summit 2011 Dr Jimmy Schwarzkopf Keynote @STKI Summit 2011 Presentation Transcript

    • I Live in the Future &Heres How It Works Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf Research Fellow jimmy@stki.info www.stki.info
    • 2011: year of the GAME CHANGERS 2
    • 2011: year of the GAME CHANGERS 3
    • Changes are “BIG” Nicolaus Copernicus 1514 4
    • Big change or IMPLOSIONFirst Technological Implosion Second Technological Implosion• PC Ecosystem • Mobility Devices Ecosystem• Client/server Ecosystem • Cloud Services Ecosystem• LAN/WAN Ecosystem • Analytic tools/appliances for• Internet/Web Ecosystem data management Ecosystem• X86 Ecosystem • NO-SQL DBMS Ecosystem• Relational DBMS Ecosystem • Social Commerce Ecosystem 5
    • What did CIOs say in 1982-1986• Are all this technologies: – Secure ? – Strong enough ? – Manageable in an IT environment ? – Will IT loose control ? – Should IT use them ? Guess what they will say 2011 - 2012 (we are in a faster moving era) ? 6
    • NO .. NO 7
    • Albert Einstein said about CIOs (?): 8
    • 5th Generation Of Computing 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2011+Autocratic Personal: Web: SOA: Cloud/Mobility:CentralizedComputing
    • Will IT change ? Will CIO’s ? 10
    • 2011-12 Game Changers 11
    • What does it mean ????????? 12
    • Drastic changes are occurring in IT 13
    • Game Changer 1 CIO is responsible for : – Provide fault-free IT support and mitigate risks – Support business functions and goals – Reduce business costs (especially IT costs) – Increase business speed and agility – Support business process innovation MOST IMPORTANT: – Support business model innovation 14
    • "Chief Business Technology Officer" (CBTO)George Colony (Forrester) is advocatingto drop the name of CIO : – CBTO are in charge of “all technology” in their enterprises. – people who work in technology departments exist to drive one thing (business) – signals everyone that the technology department is serious about helping increase growth and profit 15
    • Game Changer 2 Consumerized IT • “Personal” connectivity • Personal Mobile Computing • Cloud based applications Knowledge Individuals • Always connected • Technology Savvy • Multitasked 16
    • IT is consumerized ………. 17
    • 2011: my pocket’s contents
    • In 2 years we will carry only 1
    • STKI’s Jewish “philosopher” of the year• innovation and entrepreneurship behavior of individuals making decisions and innovations• “I suddenly realized that all the brilliant economists were interested in the behavior of money/commodities, while I was interested in the behavior of people.” Prof. Peter Druker 20
    • Productivity Management• Emphasis upon the results of: managerial actions rather than the supervision of activities (“scientific management“ from Frederick Winslow Taylor).• It shifted the entire focus of management thought: • to productivity-output • away from work efforts-input 21
    • Prof. Drucker: Managing a Business• Purpose of Business – To Create Customers• Functions of Business – Marketing – Innovation• Profit is a result, not a cause, of business activity
    • Knowledge Individual• In 1959, Prof. Drucker coined the term “knowledge worker” – Since then their share of the workforce has steadily grown – So has the range of technology tools aimed at boosting their productivity• In 2011 we can coin the term: “knowledge individual” 23
    • “ knowledge individual ” MIXES “home/work” 24 hours a dayConnected to: Applications used:i. World information/news i. Personal Financeii. Education ii. Personal Productivityiii. Entertainment iii. ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONSiv. Family & friends iv. Data Storagev. WORK v. Personal Entertainer vi. Family Health vii. others
    • Average time spent connected by “knowledge individual” Web surfing(URL based) 59% In other words Aps 25
    • How does the knowledge individual make decisions today: Company sends “future rewards” 26
    • Game Changer 3 • Death of Technology Strategies • Death of Multi-channel Strategies • Birth of Business Process Strategies • Birth of Multi-touchpoint Strategies 27
    • Multichannel technologies are only that: technologies 28
    • Change fromMultichannel to Touchpoint Strategies Technology versus Servicetechnologies 29
    • Game Changer 4 • Curated Computing – Vanilla solutions – Simplifies support and upgrades – Easy prioritizing of IT assets and applications 30
    • CURATED COMPUTING1. Allows everybody to find applications they need (on premises or cloud)2. CURATOR decides what technologies will enter the roadmap and when.3. Once you (user) are in….. You are there for the whole ride 31
    • Decision on “curator” as marriage 32
    • tech wars or religion wars 33
    • Game Changer 5 Storage & Bandwidth – New networks – New Technologies – Reductions of price 34
    • Virtually free and unlimited• Storage and bandwidth: improving while dramatic reductions of price .• The marginal cost is falling to practically zero. 35
    • We are in the midst of an historic “upload”
    • Israeli Internet Speeds Communication Costs 37
    • Growth: Digital HighwayAvailability of cellular and line high-speed broadband Broadband related growth (innovation) and availability of several (>2) aquatic lines to Italy will bewill push differentiator in 2010-2012 the big INNOVATION 2011-2014
    • Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT)spectrum released by TV’s switch to digital broadcasting • Below 700MHs for unlicensed use by the public – White-space devices will be able to zip data along at 400-800Mbps and have ranges of several kilometers • 700MHz bands for mobile-phone operators – Old TV signals travel for many kilometers, carry a lot of information, unaffected by weather and go through walls to penetrate buildings.
    • We get free services on the “web” Will industry dynamics shift ? Will there still be free services in the internet in 2012?Will prices of internet use continue to be low, unlimited, non-differentiated? 40
    • We get free services on the “web” Will industry dynamics shift ? 41
    • Why is my “ISP” slowing me down?• UKs broadband providers are to give clearer information about how they slow down users connections to maintain their network performance• ISPs vary the speed of broadband connections depending on the time of day or volume of traffic on their network• Tasks that are not speed critical, downloading files or sending emails, are delayed slightly to ensure that other services, such as streaming video, run smoothly• ISPs will offer "managed services" - effectively giving an exemption from traffic management to website and online applications that are willing to pay for it. 42
    • Days of “unlimited broadband” may be numbered…….• AT&T says it will implement a: – 150GB monthly cap: on landline DSL – 250GB cap: high speed internet – charge fees of $10 for every 50GB of data – U-Verse TV service wont count towards the GB cap 43
    • Household Expenditures (Israel) This was in 2007 no new dataOne of thehighest in the world gov.il 44
    • Game Changer 6 New OS for the internet 45
    • The Web Is Dead. Long Live the Internet 46
    • Internet Operating System• Internet is the “infrastructure”• WEB (WWW) is the first generation internet OSWhat is next?• Smartphones as Internet OS clients?• What is the OS?
    • Mobile Appliances as “internet OS client” (from GPS or cell antennas) (from Google) (from Waze) (from Google Streets) 48
    • And wow wow wow 49
    • Game Changer 7 Hybrid Clouds Private Clouds Public Clouds – BPaaS – PaaS – SaaS – IaaS 50
    • Enterprise Cloud 51
    • Consumer Cloud Applications
    • Cloudy IT: the hybrid world ISPs will become strategic Developers are now doing most of theirBy 2014 : development work for public cloud versions.80% of Israeli companies But will have private cloud versions 2015Will run hybrid clouds 53
    • 4 types: Enterprise Clouds 54
    • Who will be the winner (PaaS)? Curated Developer PlatformOver ¾ of vendor (new) applications will be developed using PaaS ecosystems 2011-2012 55
    • Parts of a “private cloud” 56
    • How does a private “cloud” look ? 57
    • Game Changer 8 • Web 2 + 3 • Social Capital Management • Social Networks • Crowd Sourcing • Facebook 58
    • Social CapitalProf. Robert Putnam defines Social Capital: “the social networks and the norms of trustworthiness and reciprocity that arise from them.” 59
    • Evolution of Social Media… 60
    • 61
    • 62
    • Peer Influence Analysis• two groups of influential consumers online: – use blogs, forums, and review sites to share complete opinions about brands and products online (creating "influence posts") (13.8% of online consumers create 80% of influence post)* – use sites like Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter to connect their friends to influential content from companies and consumers (creating "influence impressions") (6.2% of online consumers create 80% of influence impressions)* * from blog of Josh Bernoff and Augie Ray 63
    • Peer Influence Analysis• two groups of influential consumers online: – use blogs, forums, and review sites to share complete opinions about brands and products online (creating "influence posts") (13.8% of online consumers create 80% of influence post)* – use sites like Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter to connect their friends to influential content from companies and consumers (creating "influence impressions") (6.2% of online consumers create 80% of influence impressions)* * from blog of Josh Bernoff and Augie Ray 64
    • 65
    • Engage 1 influence 6 66
    • Social networking for retail shops • U.S. Patent and Trademark Office published a new patent application entitled “Social Networking in Shopping Environments” 67
    • Social Media can be used : marketing opportunity Product management awareness internal sales workplace product development product sales knowledge management base training peer-to-peer service support delivery 68
    • 38% in High-Tech69
    • 25-34: 893K Over 35: 606K Over 55: 128K43.36% of the population use FACEBOOK 70
    • 25-34: 893K Over 35: 606K Over 55: 128K 1.053 Million 18-24 use facebook43.36% of the population use FACEBOOK 71
    • 72
    • Facebook Ad Revenues 2009-12 73
    • 28/3 roughly 2.5 billion shares outstanding, at $85 billion74
    • Game Changer 9 GAMIFICATION (new man machine or user/interface) 75
    • Gamification• use of game play mechanics for non-game applications• encourage people to adopt and engage in desired behaviors in connection with the applications 76
    • New MMI/UI based on Gamification 77
    • Farmville Game on Facebook• It‟s free but you can buy goods to enhance the experience: – 1,200,000 tractors „sold‟ every single day• A team of 35 Developers release new virtual items into FarmVille twice a week• 285 Million+ users without any advertising per day• Parent company Zynga makes est. $2,500M / Year and has 1200+ employees 78
    • Examples of Gamification 79
    • US Social Gamers(millions and % of internet users) 80
    • Motion Gaming: Business Trend? • Will motion gaming business application trend continue in 2011 or will users grow tired of the motion-gaming novelty? 81
    • Game Changer 10 SENSORS (ie: location based services) 82
    • Sensors everywhere 83
    • More “sensors” ……… 84
    • Facebook PlacesThe check-in icon only shows up on the day of the event and only when users aregeographically close to the specified address. 85
    • Location based services 86
    • Location based rewards 87
    • Game Changer 11 New data base and analytic tools 88
    • Data Boom: what newtechnologies are available Traditional analytic tools and relational DBMS cannot handle Zettabyte = = 1021 89
    • Very high volume, high speed, unstructured data analysis 90
    • First Rate Enterprises do analytic simulations of opposed ideas-”The test of a first-rate intelligenceis the ability to hold two opposedideas in the mind at the same time, andstill retain the ability to function”- F. Scott Fitzgerald 91
    • New Analytic Toolstable@james_kobielus_blog
    • Industry in a Box- AppliancesAnalytical Data WarehouseAppliances – NCR Teradata – Oracle Exadata – IBM Netezza – EMC Greenplum – HP + Microsoft 93
    • Game Changer 12 New generation of appliances 94
    • When will we have “Industrial Information” Machines ? It takes time not only for people to adopt technologies into their daily routines but also for technologists to figure out how to make things 33 years The Austin 7 was produced from 1922 through to 1939The Karl Benz Patent Motorwagen 1885,. by the Austin Motor Company. 95
    • The rule: +/-30 years 96
    • Mobility 97
    • Mobility 98
    • 99
    • 2010: Israel 3G penetration 52% (18% growth)
    • Game Changer 13 Mobile Apps The Rise of a New Generation 101
    • Like an old phone changed form adopted its own form 102
    • Context Applications 103
    • Smartphones Q32010 104
    • Smartphones Q32010 105
    • Active App developer base estimates (4Q2010) http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/can-hp-make-webos-relevant/44245?tag=mantle_skin;conten t
    • Or one for each machine?PCs Tablets Smart phones Cell phones Mac
    • Mobile Applications also changingYour mobile application and Less like that: should look more like that: Don’t look at mobile devices as an “extended PC” It is a totally different device that will offer added value that a PC doesn’t
    • How are we going to use them ? 109
    • Design features (user wins) ordevelopment and distribution (IT wins) 110
    • Native Apps vs Mobile Web 111
    • Native Apps vs Mobile Web 112
    • When are you “changing” ??? 113
    • Game Changer 14 E-bizz (ie: e/m banking) 114
    • The growth of m(obile)-commerce – The percent of consumers who say they‟ve used an online retailer‟s site from a mobile phone nearly tripled to 28% from 10% in 2008 – Younger consumers more readily engage with m- commerce than older ones 115
    • Smartphone activities (12/2010 USA) 116
    • Are You Ready for the New Peer-to-Peer Economy?transactions happen between individuals or a group of individuals and not only between corporations and individuals. 196,802 soho ( up to 9 companies employees)
    • Simple business appSquare handles security and meetsall PCI security standards to ensure payments are safe and secure. 118
    • 2011: A Crossroads For NFC Mobile Payments Near Field Communications• Rather than pay with a piece of plastic you will tap your phone to pay the bill.• Technological changes need to happen, and companies are already working on them.• Apple, Google, Qualcomm and Microsoft/Nokia have already working prototypes
    • smartphones 120
    • The Future of Mobile Banking what the next-generation will look like……. .The Mobile Bank Revolution: Jibun Bank 121
    • 122
    • Zopa is the worlds first social finance company.• A way for people to lend and borrow directly with each other, online.• They have expanded across the world.• In each country Zopa is a little different. 123
    • 124
    • Game Changer 15 New generation CORE applications 125
    • New generation core systems• Core business software reflect: – Business Processes – Business environment (now Social Commerce will be part) – Regulation – Available Technology• Business Processes are really a combination of two things: – Industry (even micro-industry) related – Management/entrepreneur business model related• Core business applications: • Have a life of about 30 years • Now we are in CORE v2 in Israel • New generation core will include: – mobile, internet and e-bizz core applications – “multichannel” (touch point management) systems 126
    • Game Changer 16 IT and MARKETING 127
    • Marketing as a new IT client 128
    • New CRM: Engaging and influencing CRM 1.0 CRM 2.0Managing individual customers Managing influencers and ‘tribes’
    • Revenue cycle changes: 130
    • Marketing as a new IT client 131
    • Social Media Matters 132
    • 133
    • 134
    • In the next 5 years, 17% of marketing budget will be spent on social media
    • Game changer: Wake up call NOW 136
    • Now who stops it? LEGAL Department 137
    • Now, it’s likely to beFacebook ……. 138
    • So the game changers till now: SPEED & VERTICAL SENSORS SOFTWARE SCALE SOLUTIONS New kinds of data Hybrid Cloud applicationsprocessing power, Vertical domain storage sizes, expertise in r bandwidth and microvertical core real-time data solutions Appliances Analytics Enterprise 3.0 Always connectedNew tools andappliance 139
    • IT-basedINNOVATION 140
    • 141
    • Innovation is ONLY defined by its REALIZATION (you know it when you see it. ) 142
    • Who has what 1 143
    • Who has what 2 144
    • Computerworld this weekend IT innovation is about “understanding” theintersection between technologies and business models and their processes. 145
    • percentage of employed persons aged 15-74 in ICT fields Israel 9.7%
    • ICT in the business sector Finland 9.8 ISRAEL 15.92 Sweden 8.7 Share of Finland 14.78 ISRAEL 8.3 Ireland 8.3 ICT Gross Korea 13.69 Ireland 12.14 Denmark France 7.0 6.5 Value Hungary 10.95 Sweden 10.78 Added in Hungary 6.3 United Kingdom 10.67 Netherlands 6.3 Netherlands 9.20 Italy 6.3 Korea 6.2 business United States 8.70 Japan 6.1 Norway 8.34 Norway 5.9 sector Denmark 7.93 Germany 5.6 France 7.92United States 5.5 product Japan 7.90 Canada 5.4 Belgium 7.65 Austria 5.4 Share Canada 7.62 Australia 5.0 Czech Republic 7.54United Kingdom 4.9 of ICT Italy 7.48 Belgium 4.9 Australia 7.08Czech Republic 4.7 jobs Portugal 7.07 Spain Mexico 3.9 3.6 in business Germany 6.92 Austria 6.81 Portugal 2.6 sector Spain 6.75 Mexico 5.00
    • 148