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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
DI TAHUN PEMILU 2014
Faisal Basri
25 Januari 2014
Bagian I
Keliru Diagnosis, Keliru Beri Obat
Ekonomi dunia dan Kebijakan The Fed
membelenggu penentu kebijakan di sini
“…. Kami bergabung dengan Bank Indonesia pada 24...
Beberapa pernyataan Menkeu (1)
"Tren pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah saat ini masih akan berlanjut
hingga awal tahun 2014," u...
Beberapa pernyataan Menkeu (2)
Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri menyatakan perlambatan pertumbuhan
ekonomi dibutuhkan untuk m...
Rp terjungkal krn faktor internal, mengakselerasi
sejak Q4-2011. Sepanjang 2013 melemah 20,7%

8,000
Terkuat 2/8/11 = Rp 8...
US$ billions

Cadangan devisa merosot $32 miliar dalam 2
tahun, namun 3 bulan terakhir mulai naik
140
124.6
(Aug'11)

120
...
Menelusuri akar masalahnya:
balance of payments (US$ million)
2011
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT
A. Goods, net (Trade account)

2012 ...
Bukti Gubernur BI keliru: FDI & investasi
portofolio tetap deras
Foreign direct investment (FDI) & portfolio investment, n...
Walau perekonomian dunia gonjang-ganjing,
modal asing tetap deras masuk ke Indonesia

US$ billions

Direct investment (net...
Indonesia pertama kali masuk Top 20 host
economies untuk FDI, 2012
(x) = 2011 ranking

Billions of US dollars

Developed e...
Untuk jangka menengah tetap atraktif: TNC’s
top prospective host economies for 2013-15

Source: UNCTAD, World Investment R...
Pertama kali Indonesia di puncak, geser China-Japanese FDI: upward evaluation of Indonesia
Promising countries for oversea...
Net inflows of FDI
(US$ million)

Year

Foreign direct
investment
inflows

Payments of direct
investment income
on equity ...
Transaksi perdagangan (ekspor-impor)
non-migas dan minyak jadi biang keladi
Akun semasa (current account) dan komponennya,...
USD billion

Trade account of oil
20
19.6
10

15.7

15.4

17.9
13.4

10.8

0
-10
-20

-14.8
-23.7

-24.3
-30.9

-30
-37.1
...
USD billion

Trade account of oil and gas
20
15
10
5

7.8

5.4

0

3.2
-0.7

-5

-5.2

-10

-8.0

-15
-20
-25
-30
2008

20...
Trade deficit: oil and gas
US$ billions
25
20

21.5
17.4

15
10
5

6.3

8.7

7.8

0

10.7

12.9

12.0
9.9

13.3

12.8
8.4
...
Lebih parah lagi, minyak mentah pun sudah
defisit mulai tahun ini
(Oil trade account, US$ billions)
2002 2003 2004 2005

2...
Konsumsi BBM meroket, produksi minyak melorot, impor
kian menganga, siap menerkam perekonomian
Thousand barrel/day

Produc...
Impor 13 gol. barang utama (CIF, juta US$)
Impor migas 2012: US$42,565 atau 22.2% dari total impor
No Golongan barang
1
2
...
Harga minyak berangsur turun menjauhi
$100/barrel
Crude Oil Light Sweet Pit (Nymex) February 2014
1:27 a.m EDT

94.10 =

A...
Trade deficit: manufacturing products
US$ billions

Sources: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Trade deficit: food products
US$ billions

Sources: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Indonesia’s exports have shifted toward raw
commodities & resource-based manufactured
(Share of Indonesia’s non-oil and ga...
Ekspor makin didominasi komoditas primer
Export composition, 2012 (percent)

Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic quarte...
Akhirnya jebol sejak 2012: transaksi
perdagangan mengalami defisit
Growth (yoy)

Billion US$
Description

2013* 2010 2011
...
Indonesia satu-satunya negara Asean yang
alami defisit perdagangan dengan China
(Non-oil & gas trade account Indonesia-Chi...
Walau turun, saham tak terbanting spt
rupiah (-20,7%) dan kini sdh positif kembali
(Jakarta composite index)
5,200

On Jan...
Global stock markets (1)
As of May 22th 2013 (year to date), in $ terms
25.2
18.5
18.1
16.8
16.5
13.5
12.1
6.9
5.0
4.8
4.1...
Global stock markets (2)
As of September 25th 2013 (year to date), in $ terms
43.2
25.0
23.2
18.6
18.1
16.6
16.6
14.8
2.4
...
Global stock markets 2013: BRICS semua minus
As of December 31st 2013 (year on year), in $ terms
42.5
38.1
31.1
28.9
26.5
...
USD billion

Utang pemerintah terkendali: central
government debt outstanding
250
200
68.5

63.8

58.8

140.8

140.6

68.7...
Asing percaya prospek Indonesia cerah, lebih
banyak pegang SUN jangka panjang
Holders of tradable domestic
government secu...
Indonesia’s sovereign rating by 5 agencies

Rating Agency

Latest
Rating Awarded Date Outlook Note

Moody's

Baa3

Nov. 22...
Global bond issuance
On January 8th, 2014 (January 7th, New York Time), The
Government of the Republic of Indonesia issued...
Beberapa catatan penting perekonomian dunia
Pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia mulai menunjukkan
rebound, ditopang oleh membaiknya ...
Pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia mulai cukup
mantap naik, Indonesia masih terus melambat

Sources: http://www.economist.com/news/...
The world economic outlook, 2013-14 (%)
2014*

2013*

2010 2011 2012 Jan-13Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-1...
More U.S. Economists See Half-Full Glass
• The Fed’s decision in December to taper its
bond-buying campaign reflected incr...
U.S.: more job and unemployment decreased
significantly to 5-year low
Change in job, LHS

Thousand

Unemployment rate, RHS...
Latest US GDP growth rate

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Jadi, masalah mendasar ada di dalam negeri
“Gajah di pelupuk mata tak kelihatan, kuman di
seberang lautan tampak nyata.”
J...
Harga emas pun ikut turun sejalan dengan
perbaikan ekonomi dunia dan AS
= 1242.3

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public...
Beberapa komoditas ekspor Indonesia telah
mengalami kenaikan harga
Cocoa (ICE)

Coffee (ICE)

Copper (Cme)

Source: http:/...
Dinamika regional untungkan Indonesia
• Bangkok’s central commercial district was
swarmed by antigovernment protesters on
...
Bagian II
Terganggu,
Stabilitas Makroekonomi Terganggu,
BBM jadi Biang Keladinya
Suhu ekonomi naik tajam gara2 kenaikan harga
BBM bersubsidi, tapi sudah capai titik tertinggi
Inflation accelerates to 8,8...
BI rate naik lagi jadi 7,50%. Buat apa dan siapa?
12.75

9.5
8.0
7.5
6.5

6.75

6.5
6.0

5.75

Jul '05
9
11
Jan'0 6
3
5
7
...
Syukur, kondisi perbankan segar-bugar
Indicators
Total asset (Trillion Rp)
Deposits (Trillion Rp)
- Demand deposits
- Savi...
Bagian III
Kinerja Perekonomian secara Keseluruhan
Melambat tapi Jauh dari Krisis
Indonesia’s post-crisis journey

4.1

6

6.4
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.8
5.6

8

6.8

7.2

Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %

4
2
0
-2
-4...
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia paling
stabil di dunia, di aras lumayan tinggi, 6%
GDP growth in Asean-6 and emerging market...
Pertumbuhan konsumsi & investasi melambat

Description

2010 2011 2012 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13

Private ...
GDP growth by sector
Sector

2010 2011 2012 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13

1. Agriculture

3.0

3.3

4.0

4.3
...
Industri otomotif tumbuh perkasa
% change, year-on-year, 2010-2013
2010 2011 2012 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13

Foo...
Thousands

Indonesia: car production and sales selama
6 tahun terakhir sales naik 3,5 kali lipat
1,300

Production

Sales
...
Thousands

Penjualan sepeda motor melaju walau BI
terapkan LTV pd 15/3/12 dan Rp melemah
9,000

8,044

8,000

7,219

7,000...
Kini beda dengan Krisis 1998 dan GFC 2008

Source: Anton H. Gunawan’s presentation, 23 September 2013.
Bagian IV
Pemilu Lebih Banyak Berdampak Positif
Pemilu dan kinerja pertumbuhan ekonomi
Tahun Pemilu biasanya perekonomian mengalami
ekspansi, apalagi kalau incumbent kemb...
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
20...
Pilar kebijakan dikendalikan profesional
Pemilu 1999:
• Menteri Keuangan: Bambang Subianto
• Gubernur BI: Syahril Sabirin
...
Indikator sensitif di tahun pemilu
Indikator yang tergolong sensitif dalam
menghadapi Pemilu:
• Laju inflasi
• Penganggura...
Laju inflasi
1998 = 58.4
22

Pemilu 1999

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4

Pemilu 2004

2

Pemilu 2009

0
199319941995199619971998...
Poverty, unemployment, and growth
Poverty (LHS)

Percent

20 19.1 18.4
18.2

17.4

Unemployment (LHS)

16.7

17.8
16.0

10...
Ketimpangan “pendapatan” memburuk
gini index
0.413

0.42
0.41

0.40

0.41
0.38

0.38

0.38
0.363

0.37

0.355

0.36
0.34

...
Income distribution (%)
49

50
40

40
40
34

30
22

20

19
17

1963
1964
1967
1970
1976
1978
1980
1981
1984
1987
1999
2002...
Decoupling antara ekonomi dan politik?
Kecenderungan makin kuat melemahnya
keterkaitan antara ekonomi dan politik.
Masa pa...
•

Thousands

International tourists, number of arrivals
8,712

9,000
8,000
7,000
6,234

6,000
5,321

5,000
4,606

4,728

...
IDX index ukir rekor baru pada May Day 2013
(Jakarta composite index)
5,200
5,000

5,060.919

year to date 17.24%
year on ...
Pengalaman 3 pemilu pasca reformasi
Proses pemilu selalu berlangsung aman, jauh
dari kesan mencekam.
Tidak setetes darah p...
Demokrasi di Thailand: 2010 dan 2013

Source: The New York Times

Source: The Independent

Source: nytimes.com
Demokrasi di Cambodia: oposisi dipimpin Sam
Rainsy melawan Rezim Hun Sen
Source: Radio Free Asia

Source: The Inew York Ti...
Demokrasi di Malaysia: Protes hasil pemilu
dipimpin Anwar Ibrahim
Source: Asia One

Source: Bloomberg.com

Source: Aljazee...
Demokrasi di Mesir: akhirnya militer melakukan
kudeta
Source: US News

Source: The Inew York Times
Source: Aljazeera.com
S...
Demokrasi di Turki
Source: EAWorldView

Source: The New York Times
Source: Business Insider
Source: The Independent

Sourc...
Bagian V
Prospek Ekonomi 2014 dan Jangka Menengah
Indonesians feel more financially secure
“What best describes your feelings about your personal financial situation?”

203...
Personal financial condition in emerging markets
Question: Do you think the state of your own personal finances
over the n...
Better financial conditions in Indonesia
Non-financial corporate debt is the
largest portion of China’s total debt

Source...
Projections of GDP growth by several agencies
No Agency

Date

2013

2014

October 2013

6.0

6.0

December 2013

5.7

6.0...
EIU’s prediction on Indonesian economy
Actual GDP growth: 2009 = 4.5%, 2010 = 6.2%
GDP growth, percent

Source: The Econom...
Prediksi IMF pun meleset jauh
IMF (International Monetary Fund) pada April
2009 memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi
Indonesi...
The rising population share of middle strata
Percent of population

Class

Cut-off

2003

2010

21.9%

$1.25 - $2

40.3%

...
Indonesian population is becoming more affluent
A large portion of the Indonesian population is entering the middle class
...
Looking ahead within Indonesia
To a growing middle class…

Source: World Bank, June 2012
PwC 2013: Top-20 economies

Source: PWC, The world in 2050. New York, 2013.
The future of archipelago economy
Indonesia
Today
Economy in the world
Member of the consuming
class
Population in the cit...
Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
Twitter: @faisalbasri
Blog: kompasiana.com/faisalbasri
Blog: faisalbasri01.word...
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Indonesia Economic Outlook 2014

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Indonesia Economic Outlook 2014

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  1. 1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DI TAHUN PEMILU 2014 Faisal Basri 25 Januari 2014
  2. 2. Bagian I Keliru Diagnosis, Keliru Beri Obat
  3. 3. Ekonomi dunia dan Kebijakan The Fed membelenggu penentu kebijakan di sini “…. Kami bergabung dengan Bank Indonesia pada 24 Mei 2013, tepat dua hari setelah Chairman dari Federal Reserve memberikan sinyalemen akan mengurangi stimulus moneter (tapering). Sinyalemen yang singkat, namun pengaruhnya mendunia. Sejak saat itu, hari demi hari hingga akhir Agustus lalu, ekonomi kita ditandai dengan derasnya aliran keluar modal portofolio asing, yang kemudian menekan nilai tukar rupiah dengan cukup tajam.” (Paragraf pembuka isi pidato Gubernur Bank Indonesia pada acara “Governor’s Address & Annual Bankers’ Dinner 2013,” Jakarta, 14 November 2013). “Indonesia’s rupiah and bond yields will return to levels seen in 2009 after the Federal Reserve cuts stimulus that has buoyed emerging-market assets, Finance Minister Chatib Basri said.” (Source: Bloomberg.com, Indonesia’s Basri Sees Rupiah Back to 2009 Levels After QE Taper http://bloom.bg/1cHKkKO, November 8, 2013.)
  4. 4. Beberapa pernyataan Menkeu (1) "Tren pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah saat ini masih akan berlanjut hingga awal tahun 2014," ungkap Chatib di Gedung DPR RI, Jakarta, Selasa (27/8/2013). –Sindonews.com, 27/08/2013 (SINDOnews : Menkeu: Pelemahan rupiah berpotensi reli ke 2014 http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/2013/08/27/32/775950/menke u-pelemahan-rupiah-berpotensi-reli-ke-2014 #SINDOnews Sebelumnya dalam Rapat Paripurna DPR di Jakarta, Selasa (27/8/2013), Menkeu M Chatib Basri menyebutkan tren pelemahan rupiah masih akan berlanjut hingga awal tahun 2014. Meski demikian, pemerintah masih optimistis bahwa nilai tukar rupiah rata-rata pada tahun 2014 adalah Rp 9.750 per dollar. – Kompas.com, Menkeu Bantah Rupiah Melemah sampai Awal 2014 (Menkeu Bantah Rupiah Melemah sampai Awal 2014 Kompas.com http://kom.ps/AFXqNW via @kompascom) Sebaiknya BI saja yang bicara rupiah.
  5. 5. Beberapa pernyataan Menkeu (2) Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri menyatakan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi dibutuhkan untuk mengurangi defisit transaksi berjalan. "Oleh sebab itu, pengetatan fiskal dan moneter harus dilakukan untuk mengerem pertumbuhan ekonomi," katanya di sela acara Mandiri Investment Forum 2013, Senin, 11/11/2013. –Sumber: Tempo.co, 11/11/2013 (Menkeu: Pelambatan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dibutuhkan http://www.tempo.co/read/news/2013/11/11/087528857/MenkeuPelambatan-Pertumbuhan-Ekonomi-Dibutuhkan) Kementerian Keuangan memperkirakan investasi di tahun pemilu bakal melambat. Perlambatan investasi seiring dengan perkiraan pertumbuhan ekonomi di tahun depan yang hanya mencapai di angka 5,5%, jauh lebih kecil dibanding perkiraan pertumbuhan ekonomi di tahun ini yang mencapai 5,8%. Demikian dikatakan Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri di sela-sela acara Mandiri Investment Forum 2013 di Jakarta (11/11/2011). "Pandangan tentang ekonomi selama Pemilu 2014, fiskal dan moneter bakal ada pengetatan, investasi diperkirakan mereda," ujar Chatib. Lebih jauh dia menjelaskan, meskipun perekonomian Indonesia diperkirakan bakal melambat di tahun depan, namun konsumsi sektor swasta harus tetap kuat. Sumber: detikfinance, 11/11/2013 (http://de.tk/zDyaU)
  6. 6. Rp terjungkal krn faktor internal, mengakselerasi sejak Q4-2011. Sepanjang 2013 melemah 20,7% 8,000 Terkuat 2/8/11 = Rp 8.460 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 Source: Bank Indonesia 24-26 Nov 2008 = 12,400 18-Nov 29-Jul 15-Apr Dec-26 7-Sep 23-May 3-Feb 21-Oct 4-Jul 17-Mar 30-Nov 12-Aug 29-Apr 13-Jan 25-Sep Jun-05 Feb-17 28-Oct 8-Jul 25-Mar 26-Nov 6-Aug 20-Apr 5-Jan 13-Sep 30-May 9-Feb 20-Oct 7-Jul 22-Mar 3-Dec 12-Aug 8-Apr (Rupiah per US$)
  7. 7. US$ billions Cadangan devisa merosot $32 miliar dalam 2 tahun, namun 3 bulan terakhir mulai naik 140 124.6 (Aug'11) 120 99.4 100 92.7 (Jul'13) 80 60.6 (Jul'08) 60 50.2 (Nov'08) 40 20 Jan'04 Apr Jul Oct Jan'5 Apr Jul Oct Jan'06 Apr Jul Oct Jan'07 Apr Jul Oct Jan'08 Apr Jul Oct Jan'09 Apr Jul Oct Jan'10 Apr Jul Oct Jan'11 Apr Jul Oct Jan'12 Apr Jul Oct Jan'13 Apr Jul Oct 0 Source: Bank Indonesia.
  8. 8. Menelusuri akar masalahnya: balance of payments (US$ million) 2011 I. CURRENT ACCOUNT A. Goods, net (Trade account) 2012 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 1,685 -24,418 34,783 8,618 -3,192 -8,149 -5,265 -7,812 -5,873 -9,954 -8,449 3,810 818 3,190 801 1,628 -709 -7 1. Exports, f.o.b. 200,788 188,496 48,353 47,538 45,549 47,056 45,231 45,554 44,146 2. Imports, f.o.b. -166,005 -179,878 -44,543 -46,720 -42,360 -46.255 -43,603 -46,262 -44,153 B. Services, net -10,632 -10,331 -1,983 -2,790 -2,359 -3,198 -2,477 -3,127 -2,616 C. Income, net -26,676 -26,800 -6,048 -7,101 -6,955 -6,695 -6,126 -7,129 -6,706 4,094 1,030 924 860 1,280 1,102 1,011 878 13,567 25,161 2,093 5,090 5,885 12,093 -297 8,428 4,933 35 11 64 43 -308 8,364 4,891 D. Current Transfer, net II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT A. Capital Account B. Financial Account 1. Direct investment 4,211 33 51 2 6 7 13,534 25,111 2,091 5,085 5,878 12,058 11,528 13,982 1,550 3,747 4,539 4,146 3,876 3,771 5,139 2. Portfolio investment 3,806 9,206 2,628 3,873 2,516 190 2,760 3,389 1,884 3. Other investment -1,801 1,922 -2,087 -2,535 -1,177 7,722 -6,945 1,203 -2,131 -3,395 -528 65 248 214 -1,055 -444 -951 871 -11,857 -215 1,034 2,811 -834 -3,225 6,615 2,477 2,645 III. NET ERRORS & OMISSIONS IV. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS Source: Bank Indonesia.
  9. 9. Bukti Gubernur BI keliru: FDI & investasi portofolio tetap deras Foreign direct investment (FDI) & portfolio investment, netto, juta US$ FDI 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Source: Bank Indonesia. Porfolio Total 3,419 2,628 11,106 11,528 3,782 2,507 2,119 3,120 13,982 1,550 3,747 4,539 4,146 12,786 3,876 3,771 5,139 1,764 10,336 13,202 3,806 2,920 5,213 -4,571 245 9,206 2,628 3,873 2,516 190 8,033 2,760 3,389 1,884 5,183 12,964 24,308 15,334 6,702 7,720 -2,452 3,365 23,188 4,178 7,620 7,055 4,336 20,819 6,636 7,160 7,023
  10. 10. Walau perekonomian dunia gonjang-ganjing, modal asing tetap deras masuk ke Indonesia US$ billions Direct investment (net) Portfolio investment (net) 15 14.0 13.2 11.1 12.8 11.5 10.3 10 9.2 8.0 5 3.8 3.4 2.6 1.8 0 2008 * January-September. Source: Bank Indonesia. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
  11. 11. Indonesia pertama kali masuk Top 20 host economies untuk FDI, 2012 (x) = 2011 ranking Billions of US dollars Developed economies Developing economies Transition economies Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2013, page 3.
  12. 12. Untuk jangka menengah tetap atraktif: TNC’s top prospective host economies for 2013-15 Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2013, p. 22.
  13. 13. Pertama kali Indonesia di puncak, geser China-Japanese FDI: upward evaluation of Indonesia Promising countries for overseas business operation by Japanese Manufacturing Companies over the medium term (next 3 years or so) Rank 1997 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1st China China China China China China China China China China China Indonesia 2nd USA Thailand Thailand India India India India India India India India India 3rd Indonesia USA India Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Thailand 4th Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Viet nam Thailand Thailand Russia Thailand Thailand Vietnam Thailand China 5th India India USA USA USA Russia Thailand Russia Brazil Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam 6th Vetnam Indonesia Russia Russia Russia USA Brazil Brazil Indonesia Brazil Brazi; Brazil 7th Philippines Korea Indonesia Korea Brazil Brazil USA USA Russia Russia Mexico Mexico 8th Malaysia Taiwan Korea Indonesia Korea Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia USA USA Russia Myanmar 9th Brazil Malaysia Taiwan Brazil Indonesia Korea Korea Korea Korea Malaysia Myanmar Russia 10th Taiwan Russia Malaysia Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Malaysia Malaysia Taiwan USA USA Source: Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), “Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese Manufacturing Companies,” various issues.
  14. 14. Net inflows of FDI (US$ million) Year Foreign direct investment inflows Payments of direct investment income on equity (outflows) Surplus/ Deficit 2008 9,318 -10,495 -1,177 2009 4,877 -8,682 -3,805 2010 13,771 -12,582 1,189 2011 19,241 -17,712 1,529 2012 19,404 -17,821 1,583 2013* 14,188 -12,334 1,854 *January-September. Source: Bank Indonesia
  15. 15. Transaksi perdagangan (ekspor-impor) non-migas dan minyak jadi biang keladi Akun semasa (current account) dan komponennya, miliar US$ Current Current Non-oil Account* and gas Oil Gas Services Income transfer 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 0.1 (0.0%) 10.6 (1.8%) 5.1 (0.7%) 1.7 (0.2%) 2.9 0.3 0.8 -2.3 -24.4 (-2.8%) -3.2 (-1.5%) -8.1 (-3.7%) -5.3 (-2.4%) -7.8 (-3.6%) -24.3 -5.9 (-2.6%) -10.0 (-4.4%) -8.4 (-3.8%) 15.1 25.6 27.4 35.4 8.9 10.6 9.3 6.6 13.8 4.7 2.0 4.0 3.2 8.9 4.5 1.6 2.8 * In parentheses is percent of GDP. -8.4 -4.0 -8.7 -17.5 -3.2 -5.8 -4.3 -4.2 -20.4 -5.3 -5.3 -4.2 -5.6 -17.5 -6.4 -5.3 -5.8 16.1 9.4 11.9 16.9 3.6 4.4 4.7 4.2 15.2 4.4 4.2 3.4 3.2 9.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 -13.0 -9.7 -9.3 -10.6 -1.8 -3.1 -2.6 -3.1 -10.3 -2.0 -2.8 -2.3 -3.2 -8.2 -2.5 -3.1 -2.6 -15.2 -15.1 -20.8 -26.7 -5.5 -6.8 -7.4 -7.0 -26.8 -6.0 -7.1 -7.0 -6.7 -20.0 -6.1 -7.1 -6.7 5.4 4.6 4.6 4.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 4.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.3 3.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 Source: Bank Indonesia.
  16. 16. USD billion Trade account of oil 20 19.6 10 15.7 15.4 17.9 13.4 10.8 0 -10 -20 -14.8 -23.7 -24.3 -30.9 -30 -37.1 -38.3 2011 2012 -40 2008 2009 2010 Exports (fob) * January-September. Source: Bank Indonesia Imports (fob) 2013*
  17. 17. USD billion Trade account of oil and gas 20 15 10 5 7.8 5.4 0 3.2 -0.7 -5 -5.2 -10 -8.0 -15 -20 -25 -30 2008 2009 Oil (net) * January-September. Source: Bank Indonesia 2010 Gas (net) 2011 2012 Surplus (deficit) 2013*
  18. 18. Trade deficit: oil and gas US$ billions 25 20 21.5 17.4 15 10 5 6.3 8.7 7.8 0 10.7 12.9 12.0 9.9 13.3 12.8 8.4 -3.8 -5 -7.4 -7.9 -8.4 -9.7 -10 -12.1 -14.3 -11.8 -15 -20.7 -20 -23.0 -25 2002 2003 2004 2005 Oil & oil products *January-October. Source: Badan Pusat Statistik. 2006 2007 2008 Gas 2009 2010 2011 Oil & gas 2012 2013*
  19. 19. Lebih parah lagi, minyak mentah pun sudah defisit mulai tahun ini (Oil trade account, US$ billions) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Crude Oil Exports 5,228 5,621 6,241 8,146 8,169 9,226 12,419 7,820 10,403 13,829 12,293 9,346 Imports -3,217 -3,928 -5,831 -6,797 -7,853 -9,057 -10,062 -7,362 -8,531 -11,154 -10,803 -12,510 (X - M) 2,011 1,694 410 1,349 316 169 2,357 458 1,872 2,675 1,490 -3,164 Exports 1,308 1,548 1,932 2,844 2,262 4,159 3,798 -3,583 -10,646 -11,080 -20,231 -11,129 3,967 18,018 4,777 -3,309 2,879 12,787 3,547 Imports 1,654 5,892 -28,134 -28,680 -25,819 (X - M) -2,001 2,035 -4,238 -8,714 -8,236 -9,908 -16,684 -8,876 14,051 -23,357 -24,521 -22,021 Exports 6,535 7,169 7,896 10,078 11,013 12,105 15,966 10,082 14,370 18,606 16,452 13,144 Imports -6,526 7,510 11,724 -17,443 -18,933 21,844 -30,293 18,491 26,549 -39,483 -38,329 10 342 -3,828 -7,365 -7,920 -9,739 -14,327 -8,409 -12,179 -39,288 20,682 -23,031 -25,185 Oil Products Total (X - M) * January-November. Source: BPS.
  20. 20. Konsumsi BBM meroket, produksi minyak melorot, impor kian menganga, siap menerkam perekonomian Thousand barrel/day Production Imports Oil production: A mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in liquid phase in natural underground reservoirs and remains liquid at atmospheric pressure after passing through surface separating facilities. Consumption Oil consumption: inland demand plus aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of fuel ethanol and biodiesel is also included. Source: United States Energy Information Administration, for oil production; and BP Statistical Review of World Energy, for oil consumption
  21. 21. Impor 13 gol. barang utama (CIF, juta US$) Impor migas 2012: US$42,565 atau 22.2% dari total impor No Golongan barang 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Hasil minyak (Bahan Bakar Minyak) Mesin dan peralatan mekanik Mesin dan peralatan listrik Minyak mentah Besi dan baja Kendaraan bermotor dan bagiannya Plastik dan barang dari plastik Bahan kimia organik Barang dari besi dan baja Kapal terbang dan bagiannya Serealia Gas Sisa industri makanan * January-November Source: BPS. 2010 2011 18,018 20,019 15,633 8,531 6,372 5,737 4,817 5,326 3,451 3,528 2,159 863 - 28,134 24,729 18,245 11,154 8,580 7,603 6,688 6,635 3,573 3,421 4,753 1,412 2,219 2012 2013* 28,680 28,415 18,902 10,803 10,140 9,753 6,991 6,883 4,889 4,495 3,714 3,082 2,798 25,819 24,944 16,876 12,510 8,860 7,310 7,070 6,445 4,375 2,999 2,716 2,594
  22. 22. Harga minyak berangsur turun menjauhi $100/barrel Crude Oil Light Sweet Pit (Nymex) February 2014 1:27 a.m EDT 94.10 = Adjusted by producerprice index = US$118 Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134 Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145 Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150 • Source: Economist, April 17, 2008. Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
  23. 23. Trade deficit: manufacturing products US$ billions Sources: Badan Pusat Statistik.
  24. 24. Trade deficit: food products US$ billions Sources: Badan Pusat Statistik.
  25. 25. Indonesia’s exports have shifted toward raw commodities & resource-based manufactured (Share of Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports, percent) Source: World Bank, “Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Maintaining Resilience,” October 2012.
  26. 26. Ekspor makin didominasi komoditas primer Export composition, 2012 (percent) Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic quarterly, July 2013: 3.
  27. 27. Akhirnya jebol sejak 2012: transaksi perdagangan mengalami defisit Growth (yoy) Billion US$ Description 2013* 2010 2011 2012 2013* 29.0 -6.6 -5.2 33.0 24.9 -5.5 -3.0 29.2 47.5 48.3 -10.9 -14.1 191.7 171.2 40.0 30.7 8.0 -2.8 136.7 149.1 130.1 39.0 26.2 9.0 -5.2 27.4 40.7 42.6 41.0 44.2 48.4 4.6 5.6 22.1 26.1 (-1.6) (-5.6) 21.5 25.3 4.0 6.2 0.6 0.8 (-5.6) (-11.8) 2010 2011 2012 157.7 203.5 190.0 165.6 35.4 129.7 162.0 153.1 136.4 28.0 41.5 37.0 135.6 177.4 Non-oil and gas 108.2 Oil and gas Surplus (Deficit) Non-oil and gas Oil and gas Total export Non-oil and gas Oil and gas Total import *January-November. Source: BPS.
  28. 28. Indonesia satu-satunya negara Asean yang alami defisit perdagangan dengan China (Non-oil & gas trade account Indonesia-China,US$ million) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Exports 7,787 8,920 14,073 21,596 20,864 18,927 Imports -14,948 -13,491 -19,687 -25,456 -28,964 -27,228 Trade Balance -7,161 -4,591 -5,614 -3,860 -8,100 -8,301 % of Total Exports 7.2 9.1 10.8 13.3 13.6 13.9 Imports 15.2 17.3 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.9 Rank Exports 4 3 2 1 1 1 Imports 1 1 1 1 1 1 *January-November. Source: BPS.
  29. 29. Walau turun, saham tak terbanting spt rupiah (-20,7%) dan kini sdh positif kembali (Jakarta composite index) 5,200 On January 16, 2014: year to date 3.23% year on year 0.31% 2013 -0.098 Highest = 5,214.976 (May 20, 2013) 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 8-Jan 27-Sep 20-Jun 15-Mar 5-Dec 30-Aug 24-May 16-Feb 14-Nov 4-Aug 29-Apr 24-Jan 18-Oct 8-Jul 5-Apr 23-Dec 14-Sep Jun-09 Mar-02 19-Nov 8-Aug 6-May 25-Jan 10-Oct 9-Jul 2-Apr 26-Dec 15-Sep 12-Jun 2-Mar 25-Nov 16-Aug 13-May 2-Feb 22-Oct 800
  30. 30. Global stock markets (1) As of May 22th 2013 (year to date), in $ terms 25.2 18.5 18.1 16.8 16.5 13.5 12.1 6.9 5.0 4.8 4.1 2.6 1.1 -0.6 -1.5 -5.3 -8.9 -10.9 -12.4 -14.3 Sources: Economist. Pakistan (KSE) Indonesia (IDX) Japan (Nikkei 225) United States (DJIA) Thailand (SET) Argentina (MERV) Switzerland (SMI) Turkey (ISE) Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100) Malaysia (KLSE) China (SSEA) Singapore (STI) India (BSE) Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Australia (All Ord.) Korea (KOSPI) South Africa (JSE AS) Egypt (Case 30) Brazil (BVSP) Colombia (IGBC)
  31. 31. Global stock markets (2) As of September 25th 2013 (year to date), in $ terms 43.2 25.0 23.2 18.6 18.1 16.6 16.6 14.8 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 -0.6 -1.3 -1.4 -3.3 -4.2 -4.5 -4.8 -10.2 -13.3 -14.3 -18.3 Sources: The Economist. Argentina (MERV) Pakistan (KSE) Japan (Nikkei 225) Switzerland (SMI) France (CAC 40) United States (DJIA) Germany (DAX) Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100) Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Australia (All Ord.) Thailand (SET) Malaysia (KLSE) Korea (KOSPI) Singapore (STI) China (SSEA) South Africa (JSE AS) Egypt (Case 30) Emerging Markets (MSCI) Russia (RTS, $ terms) India (BSE) Turkey (ISE) Indonesia (IDX) Brazil (BVSP)
  32. 32. Global stock markets 2013: BRICS semua minus As of December 31st 2013 (year on year), in $ terms 42.5 38.1 31.1 28.9 26.5 24.4 23.8 23.3 13.7 3.2 2.8 2.2 -1.6 -3.2 -3.5 -4.1 -4.5 -5.0 -5.5 -13.1 -21.6 -26.7 -28.0 Sources: The Economist. Argentina (MERV) Pakistan (KSE) Germany (DAX) Japan (Nikkei 225) United States (DJIA) Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100) Switzerland (SMI) France (CAC 40) Egypt (Case 30) Malaysia (KLSE) Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Korea (KOSPI) Australia (All Ord.) Singapore (STI) India (BSE) China (SSEA) South Africa (JSE AS) Emerging Markets (MSCI) Russia (RTS, $ terms) Thailand (SET) Indonesia (IDX) Brazil (BVSP) Turkey (ISE)
  33. 33. USD billion Utang pemerintah terkendali: central government debt outstanding 250 200 68.5 63.8 58.8 140.8 140.6 68.7 150 65.0 100 61.1 63.7 68.6 58.9 50 68.4 68.9 63.5 73.3 76.6 71.3 62.0 62.3 66.7 63.1 70.5 82.3 85.3 104.2 118.4 131.0 82.8 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Securities (70.5% as of August 2013) * August Source: Bank Indonesia. Loans
  34. 34. Asing percaya prospek Indonesia cerah, lebih banyak pegang SUN jangka panjang Holders of tradable domestic government securities (percent) * October Source: Bank Indonesia. Foreign ownership of domestic government securities by maturity (percent)
  35. 35. Indonesia’s sovereign rating by 5 agencies Rating Agency Latest Rating Awarded Date Outlook Note Moody's Baa3 Nov. 22, 2012 Stable IG Fitch BBB- Nov. 15, 2013 Stable IG Rating and Investment BBB- Oct. 11, 2013 Stable IG Japan Credit Rating Agency BBB- July 22, 2013 Stable IG Standard & Poor's BB+ May 2, 2013 Stable -1 IG IG = Investment Grader.; -1 IG = one notch below investment grade. Sources: Bank Indonesia.
  36. 36. Global bond issuance On January 8th, 2014 (January 7th, New York Time), The Government of the Republic of Indonesia issued USD denominated bonds: • Series: RI0124 (Tenor: 10 years; Pricing Date: 7 Januari 2014; Nominal Received: US$2.00 Billion; Coupon Rate: 5.875%; Yield: 5.950%; Price: 99.441%; Maturity date: 15 Januari 2024; Settlement date/issuance: 15 Januari 2014) • Series: RI0144 (Tenor: 30 years; Pricing Date: 7 Januari 2014; Nominal Received: US$2.00 Billion; Coupon Rate: 6.750%; Yield: 6.850%; Price: 98.734%; Maturity date: 15 Januari 2044; Settlement date/issuance: 15 Januari 2014) The total order book for RI0124 and RI0144 is amounted to US$17,5 billion. This transaction resulted in oversubscription as much as 4,4 times. Source: Bank Indonesia.
  37. 37. Beberapa catatan penting perekonomian dunia Pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia mulai menunjukkan rebound, ditopang oleh membaiknya perekonomian negara maju. Jangan hanya fokus ke perekonomian AS, walau masih terus harus diwaspadai terkait dengan ketidakpastian awal tahun depan dan kemungkinan resesi kembali. Juga kemungkinan pemotongan dana stimulus mulai akhir tahun ini. dampak kebijakan/tak langsung. Lebih waspadai dampak langsung kemerosotan pertumbuhan ekonomi China yang sudah berlangsung empat tahun berturut-turut, dan tampaknya bakal berlanjut tahun depan. Pertumbuhan perdagangan dunia lebih tinggi tahun depan. Harus bisa dimanfaatkan untuk menggenjot ekspor Indonesia.
  38. 38. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia mulai cukup mantap naik, Indonesia masih terus melambat Sources: http://www.economist.com/news/economic-and-financial-indicators/21591902-world-gdp
  39. 39. The world economic outlook, 2013-14 (%) 2014* 2013* 2010 2011 2012 Jan-13Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 World GDP growth 5.3 3.9 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.2 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 -United States 3.0 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.6 -Euro Area 1.9 1.5 -0.6 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 -Japan 4.4 -0.6 1.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.0 0.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 7.5 6.2 4.9 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.5 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.1 -China 10.4 9.3 7.8 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.6 8.5 8.2 7.7 7.3 -India 10.8 6.3 3.2 5.9 5.7 5.6 3.8 6.3 6.2 6.3 5.1 7.0 4.5 6.1 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.0 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.4 Indonesia 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 5.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 5.5 World trade growth 12.8 6.0 2.5 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 5.4 5.3 5.4 4.9 Advanced economies Developing economies -Asean-5 * Projection. Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook October 2013 and World Economic Outlook Update, July 09, 2013.
  40. 40. More U.S. Economists See Half-Full Glass • The Fed’s decision in December to taper its bond-buying campaign reflected increased confidence in the economy and continued uneasiness about the stimulus effort, according to an official account of the December meeting. • The retreat, however, is likely to proceed slowly. • Record exports and the smallest trade deficit in four years. Healthier consumer spending, including the strongest annual increase in automobile sales since 2007, spurred by a booming stock market and an improving housing sector. And a slow but steady pickup in job creation that has pushed unemployment to its lowest level since 2008. Sources:nytimes.com http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/09/business/fed-decided-bond-buying-program-served-purpose-accountsays.html?src=rechp&_r=0; http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/10/business/economy/more-economists-see-a-half-full-glass.html?src=rechp
  41. 41. U.S.: more job and unemployment decreased significantly to 5-year low Change in job, LHS Thousand Unemployment rate, RHS Unemployment rate drop to 5-year low, 6.7% in December 2013, but still above the average rate over the last 60 years of about 6%. 600 Percent 11 400 10 200 0 9 -200 8 -400 -600 7 -1,000 Jan'08 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan'09 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan'10 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan'11 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan'12 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan'13 Mar May Jul Sep Nov -800 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 6
  42. 42. Latest US GDP growth rate Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  43. 43. Jadi, masalah mendasar ada di dalam negeri “Gajah di pelupuk mata tak kelihatan, kuman di seberang lautan tampak nyata.” Jangan kambing-hitamkan gejolak perekonomian dunia dan rencana kebijakan The Fed memotong stimulus itu namanya perekonomian perbanyak doa. Masalah mendasar ada di dalam diri kita sendiri. Gubernur BI: “… struktur produksi yang terbentuk dalam satu dekade terakhir lambat laun terasa semakin ketinggalan jaman (obsolete).” Itulah wujud senyata-nyatanya dari pertumbuhan tidak berkualitas. Kemampuan menata ekspektasi dan confidence.
  44. 44. Harga emas pun ikut turun sejalan dengan perbaikan ekonomi dunia dan AS = 1242.3 Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
  45. 45. Beberapa komoditas ekspor Indonesia telah mengalami kenaikan harga Cocoa (ICE) Coffee (ICE) Copper (Cme) Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html; MPOC (http://www.mpoc.org.my/Daily_Palm_Oil_Prices.aspx)
  46. 46. Dinamika regional untungkan Indonesia • Bangkok’s central commercial district was swarmed by antigovernment protesters on Monday (13/1/2014) as part of a so-called shutdown of the city. • The protest was the boldest move in two months of protests against the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. • Konflik Jepang vs China atas pulau Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands. • Sengketa Antara China dengan beberapa negara Asean di Laut China Selatan • Dinamika politik di Cambodia dan tuntutan kenaikan upah dengan aksi berdarah. • Demonstrasi berskala besar makin sering (ribuan) di China. Sources:nytimes.com http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/14/world/asia/thailand-protests.html?hp&_r=0; and Wikipedia.
  47. 47. Bagian II Terganggu, Stabilitas Makroekonomi Terganggu, BBM jadi Biang Keladinya
  48. 48. Suhu ekonomi naik tajam gara2 kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi, tapi sudah capai titik tertinggi Inflation accelerates to 8,8% in August, y-o-y, BI target: 4.5% + 1% 18.4 18 12 Puncak inflasi di Agustus sebesar 8,8%, efek beruntun pasca kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi, puasa dan lebaran. Tapi sejak Sep’13 turun ke kisaran 8.3-8.4%. 10 8.8 16 14 12.1 8.4 8 6 5.5 4 3.6 2 0 Source: BPS. 2.4
  49. 49. BI rate naik lagi jadi 7,50%. Buat apa dan siapa? 12.75 9.5 8.0 7.5 6.5 6.75 6.5 6.0 5.75 Jul '05 9 11 Jan'0 6 3 5 7 9 11 Jan'0 7 3 5 7 9 11 Jan'0 8 3 5 7 9 11 Jan'0 9 3 5 7 9 11 Jan'1 0 3 5 7 9 11 Jan'1 1 3 5 7 9 11 Jan'1 2 3 5 7 9 11 Jan'1 3 3 5 7 29-Aug 10 12 14.00 13.00 12.00 11.00 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 Sources: Bank Indonesia
  50. 50. Syukur, kondisi perbankan segar-bugar Indicators Total asset (Trillion Rp) Deposits (Trillion Rp) - Demand deposits - Saving accounts - Time deposits Loans (Trillion Rp) Capital adequacy ratio (%) NPL gross, without channeling (%) Returns on assets (%) Net interest margin (%) Ops. Expenses/Ops. Icome (%) Loan to deposit ratio (%) Number of banks Source: Bank Indonesia.. Jan-2012 Dec-2012 Nov-2013 3,599 2,771 649 882 1,240 2,160 18.4 2.4 3.7 6.1 91.8 78.8 120 4,263 3,225 767 1,077 1,381 2,708 17.4 1.9 3.1 5.5 74.1 84.0 120 4,818 3,563 3,214 18.6 1.9 3.0 5.5 90.2 120
  51. 51. Bagian III Kinerja Perekonomian secara Keseluruhan Melambat tapi Jauh dari Krisis
  52. 52. Indonesia’s post-crisis journey 4.1 6 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.6 8 6.8 7.2 Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, % 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky ” -12 Megawati: Consolidatio n and acceleration -14 -16 -18 -20 SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction Crisis peak Source: BPS.
  53. 53. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia paling stabil di dunia, di aras lumayan tinggi, 6% GDP growth in Asean-6 and emerging markets, 2000-2012 2000-09 2010 2011 20 15 10 5 0 Sources: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2013, except for Singapore from ADB. 2012
  54. 54. Pertumbuhan konsumsi & investasi melambat Description 2010 2011 2012 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Private consumption 4.6 4.7 5.3 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.5 Government consumption 0.3 3.2 1.2 5.9 7.4 -3.2 -3.3 0.4 2.1 8.8 Gross fixed capital formation 8.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 12.3 10.0 7.3 5.8 4.7 4.5 0.5 3.6 4.8 5.3 5.7 Exports of goods & services 15.3 13.6 2.0 7.8 Minus: Imports of goods & services 17.3 13.3 6.6 8.0 10.9 -0.5 6.8 -0.1 0.6 3.8 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.6 Gross Domestic Product Sources: BPS. 6.2 6.5 2.2 -2.8 6.4 6.2 6.0
  55. 55. GDP growth by sector Sector 2010 2011 2012 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 1. Agriculture 3.0 3.3 4.0 4.3 3.7 4.8 2.0 3.6 3.2 3.0 2. Mining 3.6 1.4 1.5 2.8 3.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 -1.2 1.6 3. Manufacturing 4.7 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.4 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.8 4.9 4. Utilities 5.3 4.4 6.4 6.2 6.2 5.6 7.2 6.6 6.6 4.0 5. Construction 7.0 6.7 7.5 7.4 7.4 8.0 7.8 7.0 6.9 6.2 6. Trade & hospitality 8.7 9.2 8.1 8.3 8.9 6.9 7.8 6.5 6.5 6.0 13.4 10.7 10.0 10.3 10.1 10.5 9.6 10.0 11.5 10.5 7. Transport & Comm. 8. Finance 5.7 6.9 7.2 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.7 8.4 8.1 8.1 9. Other Services 6.0 6.7 5.2 5.5 5.7 4.4 5.3 6.5 4.5 5.6 GDP/Total 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.6 Sources: BPS.
  56. 56. Industri otomotif tumbuh perkasa % change, year-on-year, 2010-2013 2010 2011 2012 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Food, beverages and tobacco 2.7 9.2 7.7 6.0 10.3 6.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 Textiles, leather and footwear 1.7 7.5 4.2 4.3 5.2 5.8 5.2 6.6 6.2 Wood and forestry products Paper and printing -3.5 0.4 -2.8 -7.9 -3.6 1.5 4.6 12.8 7.6 1.6 1.5 -5.3 -7.4 -6.9 -6.5 0.5 6.1 4.9 Fertilizers, chemicals&ruber products 4.7 4.0 10.2 2.2 14.3 15.2 11.0 5.3 -4.4 Cement and non-metal quarrying 2.2 7.2 7.8 7.7 10.8 5.3 4.0 1.4 3.0 Basic metals and steel 2.6 13.1 6.4 1.9 9.7 8.6 11.2 14.8 5.2 Vehicles, machinery and equipments 10.4 7.0 6.9 11.7 4.3 6.9 9.6 9.2 11.3 NON-OIL & GAS MFG INDUSTRIES 5.1 6.8 6.4 6.0 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.5 5.4 TOTAL MFG INDUSTRIES 4.5 6.2 5.7 5.4 5.9 6.2 5.9 5.9 4.9 GDP Source: BPS. 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.6
  57. 57. Thousands Indonesia: car production and sales selama 6 tahun terakhir sales naik 3,5 kali lipat 1,300 Production Sales 1,230 1,208 1,116 1,100 1,066 LCGC sales Sep-Dec 2013: 51.171 894 900 838 765 703 700 601 604 534 483 500 501 433 422 465 484 412 355 300 293 301 279 300 297 318 305 296 319 100 -100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Gaikindo (www.gaikindo.or.id)
  58. 58. Thousands Penjualan sepeda motor melaju walau BI terapkan LTV pd 15/3/12 dan Rp melemah 9,000 8,044 8,000 7,219 7,000 7,142 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Sales * January-November. Source: Gaikindo (www.gaikindo.or.id) Production
  59. 59. Kini beda dengan Krisis 1998 dan GFC 2008 Source: Anton H. Gunawan’s presentation, 23 September 2013.
  60. 60. Bagian IV Pemilu Lebih Banyak Berdampak Positif
  61. 61. Pemilu dan kinerja pertumbuhan ekonomi Tahun Pemilu biasanya perekonomian mengalami ekspansi, apalagi kalau incumbent kembali berlaga. Peningkatan konsumsi masyarakat. Ratusan ribu caleg DPR, DPRD provinsi dan kabupaten/kota, serta DPD. Juga puluhan yang mencalonkan diri jadi presiden (tukarkan simpanan $-nya). Korporasi menggelontorkan donasi politik ke partaipartai dan kandidat yang berpeluang menang. Juga didorong oleh peningkatan belanja pemerintah. Namun pada Pemilu 2014 tampaknya tidak terjadi karena pemerintah terapkan “tight” fiscal policy. Setelah tahun pemilu biasanya pertumbuhan ekonomi lebih tinggi lagi, terkait dengan harapan baru dan kebijakan yang “segar” atau pembaruan komitmen kasus Jakarta menular ke seantero negeri?
  62. 62. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, 1980-2013 10 Pemilu 2004 5 0 Pemilu 2009 Krisis global Pemilu 1999 -5 -10 -15 Source: BPS.
  63. 63. Pilar kebijakan dikendalikan profesional Pemilu 1999: • Menteri Keuangan: Bambang Subianto • Gubernur BI: Syahril Sabirin • Menko Perekonomian: Ginanjar Kartasasmita Pemilu 2004 • Menteri Keuangan: Boediono • Gubernur BI: Burhanuddin Abdullah • Menko Perekonomian: Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti Pemilu 2009 • Menteri Keuangan: Sri Mulyani Indrawati • Gubernur BI: Boediono (sampai 16 Mei) • Menko Perekonomian: Sri Mulyani Indrawati Pemilu 2014 • Menteri Keuangan: M. Chatib Basri • Gubernur BI: Agus Martowardojo • Menko Perekonomian: Hatta Rajasa
  64. 64. Indikator sensitif di tahun pemilu Indikator yang tergolong sensitif dalam menghadapi Pemilu: • Laju inflasi • Pengangguran • Kemsikinan • Ketimpangan Ada proses “berbenah” dan kosmetik lebih tebal.
  65. 65. Laju inflasi 1998 = 58.4 22 Pemilu 1999 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Pemilu 2004 2 Pemilu 2009 0 19931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012 Source: BPS.
  66. 66. Poverty, unemployment, and growth Poverty (LHS) Percent 20 19.1 18.4 18.2 17.4 Unemployment (LHS) 16.7 17.8 16.0 10 8.1 9.9 9.1 11.2 Percent 7.0 16.6 15.4 15 11.5 GDP growth (RHS) 10.3 9.3 8.5 14.2 8.1 6.1 13.3 6.0 12.4 11.8 11.4 5.0 7.4 6.8 6.3 5.9 Source: BPS. 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 3.0 2002 0 2001 4.0 2000 5
  67. 67. Ketimpangan “pendapatan” memburuk gini index 0.413 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.41 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.363 0.37 0.355 0.36 0.34 0.363 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.329 0.35 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.308 0.30 0.30 0.28 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2000 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1980 1978 1976 1969 1964 Sources: 1. BPS for 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005,2007-2013 see http://www.bps.go.id/tab_sub/view.php?kat=1&tabel=1&daftar=1&id_subyek=23&notab=6; for 2004 and 2006 see BPS, Key Indicators of Indonesia, Special Edition 2007. 2. Satish Chandra Mishra, “ Economic Inequality in Indonesia: Trends, Causes and Policy Response, Strategic Asia, March 2009: 17 for 1976, 1984, 1987, 1990, and 1993.
  68. 68. Income distribution (%) 49 50 40 40 40 34 30 22 20 19 17 1963 1964 1967 1970 1976 1978 1980 1981 1984 1987 1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10 20% top 40% Middle 40% Bottom Source: BPS, and Satish Chandra Mishra, “Economic Inequality in Indonesia: Trends, Causes, and Policy Response,” Strategic Asia, 2009: 14.
  69. 69. Decoupling antara ekonomi dan politik? Kecenderungan makin kuat melemahnya keterkaitan antara ekonomi dan politik. Masa paling erratic adalah pada transisi pemerintahan Habibie dan Gus Dur. Sejak masa pemerintahan Megawati membaik hingga sekarang. Pelaku asing pun tenang menghadapi gejolak politik. Faktor pendukung: • Demokrasi menjadi built in stabilizer, mekanisme checks and balances berjalan. • Transparancy: KPK, EITI, KI, KPPU, social media.
  70. 70. • Thousands International tourists, number of arrivals 8,712 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,234 6,000 5,321 5,000 4,606 4,728 4,467 4,000 3,000 * Prediction Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. 6,324
  71. 71. IDX index ukir rekor baru pada May Day 2013 (Jakarta composite index) 5,200 5,000 5,060.919 year to date 17.24% year on year 20.61% Mayday = 5,060.919 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 26-Apr Dec-21 23-Aug 20-Apr 21-Dec 19-Aug 19-Apr 17-Dec 12-Aug 15-Apr 9-Dec Aug-06 Apr-06 27-Nov 23-Jul 26-M ar 13-Nov 13-Jul 13-M ar 13-Nov 7-Jul 6-M ar 28-Oct 1-Jul 1-M ar 22-Oct 800
  72. 72. Pengalaman 3 pemilu pasca reformasi Proses pemilu selalu berlangsung aman, jauh dari kesan mencekam. Tidak setetes darah pun menitik di bumi Ibu Pertiwi karena konflik pemilu. Memang ada yang tewas karena kecelakaan lalulintas kala konvoi atau peserta ugal-ugalan. Hasil pilpres selalu diterima oleh pihak yang kalah. Tidak ada yang menggugat ke Mahkamah Konstitusi. Isi kampanye tak ada yang di luar koridor konstitusi.
  73. 73. Demokrasi di Thailand: 2010 dan 2013 Source: The New York Times Source: The Independent Source: nytimes.com
  74. 74. Demokrasi di Cambodia: oposisi dipimpin Sam Rainsy melawan Rezim Hun Sen Source: Radio Free Asia Source: The Inew York Times Source: Aljazeera.com Source: The Independent Source: The Straits Times Source: Rappler Source: VOA
  75. 75. Demokrasi di Malaysia: Protes hasil pemilu dipimpin Anwar Ibrahim Source: Asia One Source: Bloomberg.com Source: Aljazeera.com Source: The Independent Source: The Straits Times Source: Global Research Source: Rappler Source: Asia Times Source: VOA
  76. 76. Demokrasi di Mesir: akhirnya militer melakukan kudeta Source: US News Source: The Inew York Times Source: Aljazeera.com Source: The Independent Source: rt.com Source: The Straits Times Source: shoutoutuk.org Source: VOA
  77. 77. Demokrasi di Turki Source: EAWorldView Source: The New York Times Source: Business Insider Source: The Independent Source: Huffingtonpost.com Source: CNN.com Source: VOA
  78. 78. Bagian V Prospek Ekonomi 2014 dan Jangka Menengah
  79. 79. Indonesians feel more financially secure “What best describes your feelings about your personal financial situation?” 2030 2030 Source: BCG (The Boston Consulting Group, “Asian’s Next Big Opportunity: Indonesia’s Rising Middle-Class and Affluent Consumers, March 2013.
  80. 80. Personal financial condition in emerging markets Question: Do you think the state of your own personal finances over the next six months will be better, worse or about the same? Source: Credit Suisse, Emerging Consumer Survey 2013.
  81. 81. Better financial conditions in Indonesia Non-financial corporate debt is the largest portion of China’s total debt Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2013. Household debt in Malaysia and Thailand is high and expanding
  82. 82. Projections of GDP growth by several agencies No Agency Date 2013 2014 October 2013 6.0 6.0 December 2013 5.7 6.0 1 Gov’t of Indonesia 2 Bank Indonesia 3 IMF October 2013 5.3 5.5 4 World Bank October 2013 5.6 5.3 5 ADB October 2013 5.7 6.0 6 The Economist December 2013 5.6 5.5 7 Bank Danamon December 2013 5.7 5.9 8 Faisal Basri December 2013 5.7 6.1
  83. 83. EIU’s prediction on Indonesian economy Actual GDP growth: 2009 = 4.5%, 2010 = 6.2% GDP growth, percent Source: The Economist, various issues.
  84. 84. Prediksi IMF pun meleset jauh IMF (International Monetary Fund) pada April 2009 memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia hanya 2,5 persen pada tahun 2009. Dua bulan kemudian, tepatnya 5 Juni 2009, IMF melakukan koreksi ke atas menjadi 3-4 persen: “Looking forward, we have raised our projection of economic growth for 2009 to 3-4 percent (from 2.5%) with inflation expected to decline to about 5 percent by the end of the year.” Proyeksi International Monetary Fund (IMF) tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia hampir selalu lebih rendah dari realisasinya. Sumber: Diunduh dari http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09201.htm.
  85. 85. The rising population share of middle strata Percent of population Class Cut-off 2003 2010 21.9% $1.25 - $2 40.3% 29.3% $2 - $4 32.1% 38.5% $4 - $6 3.9% 11.7% $6 - $10 1.3% 5.0% $10 - $20 Low < $1.25 0.3% 1.3% > $20 0.1% Middle High 62.2% 37.7% 0.1% 14.0% 0.2% 43.2% 56.5% 0.2% Note: Per capita expenditure per day is adjusted to the 2005 purchasing power parity terms. Source: World Bank, March 2011, based on Susenas.
  86. 86. Indonesian population is becoming more affluent A large portion of the Indonesian population is entering the middle class and affluent consumer (MAC), from 47,7% in 2012 to 71.5% in 2020. Population 2012, million (%) Monthly household expenditure (IDR million) Population 2020, million (%) 2.5 (1.0) Elite 7.5 and more 6.9 (2.6) 6.6 (2.7) Affluent 5.0 - less than 7.5 16.5 (6.1) 23.2 (9.3) Upper middle 3.0 - less than 5.0 49.3 (18.4) 41.6 (16.8) Middle 2.0 - less than 3.0 68.2 (25.5) 44.4 (17.9) Emerging middle 1.5 - less than 2.0 50.5 (18.9) 65.4(26.3) Aspirant 1.0 - less than 1.5 47.9 (17.9) 64.5 (26.0) Poor Less than 1.5 28.3 (10.6) Sources: BCG, March 2013.
  87. 87. Looking ahead within Indonesia To a growing middle class… Source: World Bank, June 2012
  88. 88. PwC 2013: Top-20 economies Source: PWC, The world in 2050. New York, 2013.
  89. 89. The future of archipelago economy Indonesia Today Economy in the world Member of the consuming class Population in the cities … … producing Number of skilled workers Market opportunity Source: McKinsey, The Archiipelago Economy: Unleashing Indonesia’ sPotential, 2012. Indonesia in 2030 16th-largest 7th largest 45 million 53% 74% GDP 55 million $0.5 trillion 135 million 71% 86% GDP 113 million $1.8 trillion
  90. 90. Terima Kasih Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com Twitter: @faisalbasri Blog: kompasiana.com/faisalbasri Blog: faisalbasri01.wordpress.com

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