Global Economics Update - February 2016

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A monthly summary of global economic performance including employment, trade, business conditions, leading indicators and regional data.

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Global Economics Update - February 2016

  1. 1. .... Laird Research - Economics February 22, 2016 Where we are now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Indicators for US Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Global Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 US Key Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 US Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 QE Taper Tracker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 US Banking Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 US Employment Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 US Business Activity Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 US Consumption Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 US Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Global Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Global Business Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Canadian Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 European Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Chinese Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Where we are now Welcome to the Laird Report. We present a selection of economic data from around the world to help figure where we are today. There are clear cracks in the foundation of the global economy - those are highlighted by declines in the volume and quantum of inter- national trade. A significant portion of that has been the slow rolling disaster that is the oil price: significant quantities are shipped via ship and crushed profits from oil producers means that the profits from oil export have declined. This reduces demand for oil transport – which seems counter-intuitive because oil price collapse is attributed to over- supply – which would imply that volumes remain high. However, the total dollar volume would have declined, so that weighs on measures of trade (i.e. same volume at a lower price would result in a dollar decline). However, one measure that I used to follow is the Baltic Index which is in the news as it shows the pricing of ships carrying raw materials – a key leading indicator. That index is now at an all-time low value, which indicates a slowdown in demand. There’s a reason mining and oil companies are having a hard time and trade reflects that. A related trade measure is the Harpex index (for which we do not have as much historical data). It follows container ship pricing - which is more closely tied to finished goods demand as it travels from producer to consumer. As can be seen from the next page, it is also down signif- icantly from its highs and back to the levels of 2013 (actually slightly lower). Note that these data series are very noisy which is why I stopped following them: the structure of the industry (how many ships are available) has as much of an effect on pricing as demand and signifi- cant amounts of capacity have been added and subsequently removed in the last 10 years. Europe and the US are having none of this however, with employ- ment measures still strong and improving. Prices are stable and jobless measures are declining. Quit rates have increased – with the assump-
  2. 2. tion that if more people are quitting to find better jobs they must be pretty confident in the strength of the local economy. Further, things like bank non-performing loan measures are declining – businesses are strengthening, though this is a relative measure to the chaos of five years ago. China still seems to be worse than the central planners hoped, but remains opaque to analysis - their central bank has started removing details on items like capital flight. The information moves slowly through the economy – this report could easily be quarterly – and when early indicators like global trade keep grinding lower, challenges are coming down the pipe, however good it looks now. Don’t quit your day job. Formatting Notes The grey bars on the various charts are OECD recession indicators for the respective countries. In many cases, the last available value is listed, along with the median value (measured from as much of the data series as is available). Subscription Info For a FREE subscription to this monthly re- port, please visit sign up at our website: www.lairdresearch.com Laird Research, February 22, 2016 Harpex Index (shipping container pricing index)13 14 15 0100200300400500600 median: 403.07 Feb 2016: 364.13 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 2
  3. 3. Indicators for US Economy Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the economy as a whole changes. They are useful as short-term predictors of the economy. Our list includes the Philly Fed’s Leading Index which summarizes multiple indicators; initial jobless claims and hours worked (both decrease quickly when demand for employee services drops and vice versa); purchasing manager indicies; new order and housing per- mit indicies; delivery timings (longer timings imply more demand in the system) and consumer sentiment (how consumers are feeling about their own financial situation and the economy in general). Red dots are points where a new trend has started. Leading Index for the US Index:Est.6monthgrowth −3−10123 median: 1.54 Dec 2015: 1.65 Growth Contraction Initial Unemployment Claims 1000'sofClaimsperWeek 200400600 median: 349.12 Feb 2016: 273.25 Manufacturing Ave. Weekly Hours Worked Hours 394041424344 median: 40.60 Jan 2016: 41.80 ISM Manfacturing − PMI Index:SteadyState=50 3040506070 median: 53.40 Jan 2016: 48.20 expanding economy contracting economy Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods BillionsofDollars 150200250300 median: 185.33 Dec 2015: 225.59 Index of Truck Tonnage TruckTonnageIndex 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 100120 median: 113.00 Nov 2015: 134.10 Capex (ex. Defence & Planes) BillionsofDollars 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 40506070 median: 57.84 Dec 2015: 65.96 Chicago Fed National Activity Index IndexValue 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −4−202 median: 0.07 Dec 2015: −0.22 U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Index1966Q1=100 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 507090110 median: 88.80 Jan 2016: 92.00 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 3
  4. 4. Global Financial Markets Global Stock Market Returns Country Index Name Close Date Current Value Weekly Change Monthly Change 3 month Change 12 month Change Corr to S&P500 Corr to TSX North America USA S&P 500 Feb 19 1,917.8 2.8% I 1.9% I -7.9% J -8.6% J 1.00 0.79 USA NASDAQ Composite Feb 19 4,504.4 3.8% I 0.6% I -11.2% J -8.5% J 0.95 0.71 USA Wilshire 5000 Total Market Feb 19 19,624.2 3.1% I 1.8% I -9.2% J -11.4% J 1.00 0.80 Canada S&P TSX Feb 19 12,813.4 3.5% I 6.8% I -4.9% J -15.6% J 0.79 1.00 Europe and Russia France CAC 40 Feb 19 4,223.0 5.7% I -1.2% J -14.1% J -12.6% J 0.61 0.57 Germany DAX Feb 19 9,388.0 4.7% I -2.9% J -15.3% J -14.7% J 0.56 0.49 United Kingdom FTSE Feb 19 5,950.2 4.3% I 1.2% I -6.0% J -13.6% J 0.66 0.67 Russia Market Vectors Russia ETF Feb 19 14.1 4.1% I 12.3% I -16.4% J -18.8% J 0.63 0.72 Asia Taiwan TSEC weighted index Feb 19 8,325.0 3.2% I 6.0% I -1.8% J -12.6% J 0.20 0.20 China Shanghai Composite Index Feb 18 2,862.9 4.2% I -1.7% J -19.8% J -11.3% J 0.30 0.26 Japan NIKKEI 225 Feb 19 15,967.2 6.8% I -6.3% J -19.6% J -12.6% J 0.07 0.09 Hong Kong Hang Seng Feb 19 19,285.5 5.3% I -1.8% J -14.3% J -22.4% J 0.24 0.26 Korea Kospi Feb 19 1,916.2 4.4% I 1.4% I -3.7% J -2.3% J 0.18 0.23 South Asia and Austrailia India Bombay Stock Exchange Feb 19 23,709.2 3.1% I -3.1% J -8.3% J -19.5% J 0.37 0.45 Indonesia Jakarta Feb 19 4,697.6 -0.4% J 4.6% I 4.0% I -13.0% J 0.18 0.28 Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Feb 19 1,674.9 1.9% I 2.8% I 0.9% I -7.4% J 0.28 0.31 Australia All Ordinaries Feb 19 5,008.3 4.0% I 1.1% I -5.4% J -14.7% J 0.11 0.20 New Zealand NZX 50 Index Gross Feb 19 6,141.7 3.5% I 0.3% I 2.4% I 7.3% I 0.05 0.08 South America Brasil IBOVESPA Feb 19 41,543.0 4.4% I 9.2% I -13.7% J -19.0% J 0.47 0.48 Argentina MERVAL Buenos Aires Feb 19 11,826.0 4.9% I 20.7% I -14.2% J 26.0% I 0.54 0.56 Mexico Bolsa index Feb 19 43,375.3 2.3% I 6.3% I -2.8% J 0.3% I 0.71 0.65 MENA and Africa Egypt Market Vectors Egypt ETF Feb 19 33.2 1.8% I 0.3% I -7.1% J -43.8% J 0.40 0.46 (Gulf States) Market Vectors Gulf States ETF Feb 19 20.2 1.8% I 5.4% I -9.6% J -22.7% J 0.31 0.30 South Africa iShares MSCI South Africa Index Feb 19 46.2 3.8% I 16.5% I -16.2% J -30.9% J 0.69 0.67 (Africa) Market Vectors Africa ETF Feb 19 16.9 1.0% I 11.4% I -10.0% J -32.3% J 0.66 0.74 Commodities USD Spot Oil West Texas Int. Feb 16 $29.1 3.9% I 2.0% I -30.3% J -45.8% J 0.38 0.57 USD Gold LME Spot Feb 19 $1,221.5 -1.5% J 12.4% I 13.8% I 0.3% I 0.10 0.07 Note: Correlations are based on daily arithmetic returns for the most recent 100 trading days. www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 4
  5. 5. S&P 500 Composite Index The S&P 500 Composite Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. A key figure is the valua- tion level of the S&P500 as measured by the Price/Earnings ratio. We present two versions: (1) a 12-month trailing earnings version which reflects current earnings but is skewed by short term variances and (2) a cyclically adjusted version which looks at the inflation adjusted earn- ings over a 10 year period (i.e. at least one business cycle). Forecasted earnings numbers are estimates provided by S&P. S&P 500 Profit Margins and Overall Corporate Profit Margins (Trailing 12 months) Percent 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Percent Total Corporate Profits (% of GDP) − median: 6.2%, Q3/15: 9.9% Net Profit Margin (S&P 500 Earnings / Revenue) − median: 6.6%, Q4/15: 8.1% S&P Quarterly Earnings (USD$ Inflation Adjusted to current prices) 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 −5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 −5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 Tech Bubble Japanese Asset Bubble House BubbleAsian Financial Crisis US Financial Crisis Eurozone crisis Oil Crisis I Oil Crisis II Gulf War Savings and Loans Crisis High Inflation Period Afganistan/Iraq WarVietnam War Reported Earnings Operating Earnings Trailing P/E Ratios for S&P500 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 Multiple Multiple 12−month P/E ( median = 17.4, Feb = 20.2) 10−year CAPE ( median = 19.5, Feb = 23.4) www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 5
  6. 6. S&P 500 Composite Distributions This is a view of the price performance of the S&P 500 index com- panies. The area of each box is proportional to the company’s market cap, while the colour is determined by the percentage change in price over the past month. In addition, companies are sorted according to their industry group. AAPL −8.8% GOOG −5.5% MSFT −5.4% FB +2.3% V ORCL +2.9% INTC −16% IBM −2.1% CSCO MA −8.3% QCOM ACN TXN EMC PYPL ADBE CRM ADP CTSH AVGO HPQ PAYX EQIX ADI CA ADS MU MSI LLTC WU JNJ +3.7% PFE −7.7% MRK −4.5% GILD −11% AMGN −5.2% UNH +1% AGN MDT −0.51% BMY −4.8% ABBV −5.8% LLY −12% CELG BIIB −11% ABT −10% TMO ESRX −21% REGN SYK MCK AET CI BDX MYL CAH HUM BAX ZTS ZBH EW A LH WFC −9.1% JPM −9.1% BAC −26% C −24% USB −4.9% GS −17% AIG SPG AXP BLK MS MET PNC PSA AMT BK CB COF TRV CME MMC CCI ICE EQR AON BBT AFL ALL STT PLD DFS VTR PGR STI HCP MCO O ESS L WY PFG XL CINF AMZN −16% DIS −7.7% HD −7.2% CMCSA +3.8% MCD NKE SBUX LOW −9% TWX TWC PCLN +3.1% FOX TJX F GM TGT CCL YUM VFC LB JCI AZO CBS ROST DG DLTR OMC VIAB RCL CMG SWK GPC M MHK HOT TIF SNI GT PG +4.4% WMT +5.2% KO +3.2% PEP +0.82% PM +5.7% MO +5.5% CVS KHC +1.1% WBA −6.6% RAI +9.5% COST −6.8% MDLZ CL KMB KR EL GIS STZ K MNST SYY HRL BF−B HSY TAP SJM CHD GE −5.5% MMM +6.6% UPS BA −18% HON UTX LMT +0.19% UNP +1.2% DHR GD CAT RTN FDX NOC ITW DAL EMR ETN DE WM AAL GLW UAL CMI PH IR ROK AME COL TXT XOM +6.5% CVX −2.6% SLB +5.3% OXY +4.2% PSX COP EOG KMI HAL APC SE BHI PXD FTI HP DUK +4.7% NEE +11% SO D AEP PCG PPL SRE PEG ED EIX XEL WEC ES DTE FE NI DOW DD LYB ECL PX SHW IP NEM NUE VMC AA ARG T +8% VZ +12% Information Technology Health Care Financials Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Industrials Energy Utilities Materials Telecommunications Services <−25.0% −20.0% −15.0% −10.0% −5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% >25.0% % Change in Price from Jan 4, 2016 to Feb 19, 2016 Average Median Median Median Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E Telecommunications Services 9.4% I 1.5 1.8 13.6 Utilities 6.6% I 1.8 1.8 19.2 Consumer Staples 1.9% I 2.5 5.6 27.2 Industrials -1.7% J 1.4 3.3 17.6 Energy -2.9% J 1.4 1.6 23.1 Average Median Median Median Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E Materials -4.1% J 1.2 3.7 22.6 Consumer Discretionary -5.0% J 1.5 3.9 17.4 Information Technology -5.3% J 3.2 4.1 21.9 Health Care -6.5% J 3.1 3.7 23.4 Financials -10.9% J 2.4 1.5 15.1 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 6
  7. 7. US Equity Valuations A key valuation metric is Tobin’s q: the ratio between the market value of the entire US stock market versus US net assets at replacement cost (ie. what you pay versus what you get). Warren Buffet famously follows stock market value as a percentage of GNP, which is highly (93%) correlated to Tobin’s q. We can also take the reverse approach: assume the market has valuations correct, we can determine the required returns of future es- timated earnings. These are quoted for both debt (using BAA rated securities as a proxy) and equity premiums above the risk free rate (10 year US Treasuries). These figures are alternate approaches to under- standing the current market sentiment - higher premiums indicate a demand for greater returns for the same price and show the level of risk-aversion in the market. Tobin's q (Market Equity / Market Net Worth) and S&P500 Price/Sales 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 Buying assets at a discount Paying up for growth Tobin Q (median = 0.76, Sep = 0.93) S&P 500 Price/Sales (median = 1.35, Dec = 1.82) Equity and Debt Risk Premiums: Spread vs. Risk Free Rate (10−year US Treasury) 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Implied Equity Premium (median = 4.2%, Jan = 5.2%) Debt (BAA) Premium (median = 2.0%, Jan = 3.5%) www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 7
  8. 8. US Mutual Fund Flows Fund flows describe the net investments in equity and bond mutual funds in the US market, as described in ICI’s “Trends in Mutual Fund Investing” report. Note however that this is only part of the story as it does not include ETF fund flows - part of the changes are investors entering or leaving the market, and part is investors shifting to ETF’s from mutual funds. US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds US$billions(monthly) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 −40−2002040 Domestic Equity World Equity Taxable Bonds Municipal Bonds US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds US$billions(Monthly) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 −60−40−200204060 Flows to Equity Flows to Bonds Net Market Flows www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 8
  9. 9. US Key Interest Rates Interest rates are often leading indicators of stress in the financial system. The yield curve show the time structure of interest rates on government bonds - Usually the longer the time the loan is outstanding, the higher the rate charged. However if a recession is expected, then the fed cuts rates and this relationship is inverted - leading to negative spreads where short term rates are higher than long term rates. Almost every recession in the past century has been preceeded by an inversion - though not every inversion preceeds a recession (just most of the time). For corporate bonds, the key issue is the spread between bond rates (i.e. AAA vs BAA bonds) or between government loans (LIBOR vs Fedfunds - the infamous “TED Spread”). Here a spike correlates to an aversion to risk, which is an indication that something bad is happen- ing. US Treasury Yield Curves ForwardInstantaneousRates(%) 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Feb 18, 2016 (Today) Jan 19, 2016 (1 mo ago) Nov 18, 2015 (3 mo ago) 18 Feb 2015 (1 yr ago) 3 Month & 10 Yr Treasury Yields 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 10 Yr Treasury 3 Mo Treasury Spread AAA vs. BAA Bond Spreads 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Percent AAA BAA 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 median: 91.00 Feb 2016: 137.00 0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300 Spread(bps) LIBOR vs. Fedfunds Rate 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Percent 3 mos t−bill LIBOR 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 median: 36.13 Feb 2016: 31.82 0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300 Spread(bps) www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 9
  10. 10. US Inflation Generally, the US Fed tries to anchor long run inflation expectations to approximately 2%. Inflation can be measured with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. In both cases, it makes sense to exclude items that vary quickly like Food and Energy to get a clearer picture of inflation (usually called Core Inflation). The Fed seems to think PCI more accurately reflects the entire basket of goods and services that households purchase. Finally, we can make a reasonable estimate of future inflation ex- pectations by comparing real return and normal bonds to construct an imputed forward inflation expectation. The 5y5y chart shows expected 5 year inflation rates at a point 5 years in the future. Neat trick that. Consumer Price Index Percent 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% −1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% US Inflation Rate YoY% (Jan = 1.3%) US Inflation ex Food & Energy YoY% (Jan = 2.2%) Personal Consumption Expenditures Percent(YearoverYear) 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −10123456 PCE Inflation Rate YoY% (Dec = 0.58%) PCE Core Inflation YoY% (Dec = 1.4%) 5−Year, 5−Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate Percent 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 −10123456 5 year forward Inflation Expectation Actual 5yr Inflation (CPI measure) Actual 5yr Inflation (PCE Measure) www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 10
  11. 11. QE Taper Tracker The US has been using the program of Quantitative Easing to pro- vide monetary stimulous to its economy. The Fed has engaged in a series of programs (QE1, QE2 & QE3) designed to drive down long term rates and improve liquidity though purchases of treasuries, mor- gage backed securites and other debt from banks. The higher demand for long maturity securities would drive up their price, but as these securities have a fixed coupon, their yield would be decreased (yield ≈ coupon / price) thus driving down long term rates. In 2011-2012, “Operation Twist” attempted to reduce rates without increasing liquidity. They went back to QE in 2013. The Fed chairman suggested in June 2013 the economy was recover- ing enough that they could start slowing down purchases (“tapering”). The Fed backed off after a brief market panic. The Fed announced in Dec 2013 that it was starting the taper, a decision partly driven by seeing key targets of inflation around 2% and unemployment being less than 6.5%. In Oct 2014, they announced the end of purchases. QE Asset Purchases to Date (Treasury & Mortgage Backed Securities) Trillions 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 QE1 QE2 Operation Twist QE3 TaperTreasuries Mortgage Backed Securities Total Monthly Asset Purchases (Treasury + Mortgage Backed Securities) Billions −100 −50 0 50 100 150 200 −100 −50 0 50 100 150 200 Month to date Feb 17: $12.3 Inflation and Unemployment − Relative to Targets Percent 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Target Unemployment 6.5% Target Inflation 2% U.S. 10 Year and 3 Month Treasury Constant Maturity Yields Percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Short Term Rates: Once at zero, Fed moved to QE Long Term Rates: Moving up in anticipation of Taper? www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 11
  12. 12. Exchange Rates 10 Week Moving Average CAD Exchange Rates 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0.620.710.810.901.001.09 USA/CAD 0.550.610.660.720.770.82 Euro/CAD 59.1674.7190.26105.81121.36136.91 Japan/CAD 0.380.440.490.550.610.67 U.K./CAD 0.591.101.602.112.613.12 Brazil/CAD CAD Appreciating CAD Depreciating Change in F/X: Jan 4 2016 to Feb 12 2016 (Trade Weighted Currency Index of USD Trading Partners) −3.0% −1.5% 1.5% 3.0% Euro −4.0% UK 1.4% Japan −5.5% South Korea 1.0% China 0.4% India 2.2% Brazil −2.2% Mexico 9.3% Canada −1.1% USA 0.2% Country vs. Average Appreciating Depreciating % Change over 3 months vs. Canada <−10.0% −8.0% −6.0% −4.0% −2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% >10.0% CAD depreciatingCAD appreciating ARG −33.3% AUS 2.6% BRA −3.8% CHN 1.2% IND −1.0% RUS −13.1% USA 3.5% EUR 7.7% JPY 13.0% KRW −8.3% MXN −5.7% ZAR −6.1% www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 12
  13. 13. US Banking Indicators The banking and finance industry is a key indicator of the health of the US economy. It provides crucial liquidity to the economy in the form of credit, and the breakdown of that system is one of the exac- erbating factors of the 2008 recession. Key figures to track are the Net Interest Margins which determine profitability (ie. the difference between what a bank pays to depositors versus what the bank is paid by creditors), along with levels of non-performing loans (i.e. loan loss reserves and actual deliquency rates). US Banks Net Interest Margin Percent 3.03.54.04.5 median: 3.94 2015 Q4: 3.02 Repos Outstanding with Fed. Reserve BillionsofDollars 0200400600 median: 57.81 Feb 2016: 298.75 Bank ROE − Assets between $300M−$1B Percent 051015 median: 12.81 2015 Q4: 9.93 Consumer Credit Outstanding %YearlyChange −505101520 median: 7.57 Dec 2015: 6.92 Total Business Loans %YearlyChange −2001020 median: 8.62 Jan 2016: 10.75 US Nonperforming Loans Percent 12345 median: 2.05 2015 Q4: 1.55 St. Louis Financial Stress Index Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0246 median: 0.094 Feb 2016: −0.24 Commercial Paper Outstanding TrillionsofDollars 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1.01.41.82.2 median: 1.33 Feb 2016: 1.08 Residential Morgage Delinquency Rate Percent 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 246810 median: 2.33 2015 Q4: 5.17 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 13
  14. 14. US Employment Indicators Unemployment rates are considered the “single best indicator of current labour conditions” by the Fed. The pace of payroll growth is highly correlated with a number of economic indicators.Payroll changes are another way to track the change in unemployment rate. Unemployment only captures the percentage of people who are in the labour market who don’t currently have a job - another measure is what percentage of the whole population wants a job (employed or not) - this is the Participation Rate. The Beveridge Curve measures labour market efficiency by looking at the relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate. The curve slopes downward reflecting that higher rates of unemploy- ment occur coincidentally with lower levels of job vacancies. Unemployment Rate Percent 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 median: 6.10 Jan 2016: 4.90 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Percent 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2.02.53.03.54.0 Beveridge Curve (Unemployment vs. Job Openings) Unemployment Rate (%) JobOpenings(%totalEmployment) Dec 2000 − Dec 2008 Jan 2009 − Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Participation Rate Percent 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 6364656667 median: 66.00 Jan 2016: 62.70 Total Nonfarm Payroll Change MonthlyChange(000s) 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −5000500 median: 164.00 Jan 2016: 151.00 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 14
  15. 15. There are a number of other ways to measure the health of employ- ment. The U6 Rate includes people who are part time that want a full-time job - they are employed but under-utilitized. Temporary help demand is another indicator of labour market tightness or slack. The large chart shows changes in private industry employment lev- els over the past year, versus how well those job segments typically pay. Lots of hiring in low paying jobs at the expense of higher paying jobs is generally bad, though perhaps not unsurprising in a recovery. Median Duration of Unemployment Weeks 510152025 median: 8.70 Jan 2016: 10.90 (U6) Unemployed + PT + Marginally Attached Percent 810121416 median: 9.80 Jan 2016: 9.90 4−week moving average of Initial Claims Jan1995=100 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 50100150200 median: 107.34 Feb 2016: 84.01 Unemployed over 27 weeks MillionsofPersons 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 01234567 median: 0.80 Jan 2016: 2.15 Services: Temp Help MillionsofPersons 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1.52.02.53.0 median: 2.26 Jan 2016: 2.92 −200 0 200 400 600 15 20 25 30 35 40 Annual Change in Employment Levels (000s of Workers) Averagewages($/hour) Private Industry Employment Change (Jan 2015 − Jan 2016) Construction Durable Goods Education Financial Activities Health Services Information Leisure and Hospitality Manufacturing Mining and Logging Nondurable Goods Other Services Professional & Business Services Retail Trade Transportation Utilities Wholesale Trade Circle size relative to total employees in industry www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 15
  16. 16. US Business Activity Indicators Business activity is split between manufacturing activity and non- manufacturing activity. We are focusing on forward looking business indicators like new order and inventory levels to give a sense of the current business environment. Manufacturing Sector: Real Output YoYPercentChange −1001020 median: 8.70 2015 Q4: 7.06 ISM Manufacturing − PMI Index 3040506070 Jan 2016: 48.20 manufac. expanding manufac. contracting ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index Index 304050607080 Jan 2016: 51.50 Increase in new orders Decrease in new orders Non−Manufac. New Orders: Capital Goods BillionsofDollars 40506070 median: 57.84 Dec 2015: 65.96 Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing Hours 3940414243 median: 41.20 Jan 2016: 41.80 Industrial Production: Manufacturing YoYPercentChange −15−50510 median: 3.08 Jan 2016: 1.23 Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio Ratio 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1.11.21.31.41.51.6 median: 1.36 Dec 2015: 1.39 Chicago Fed: Sales, Orders & Inventory Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −0.50.00.5 Dec 2015: −0.02 Above ave growth Below ave growth ISM Non−Manufacturing Bus. Activity Index Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 35455565 Jan 2016: 53.90 Growth Contraction www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 16
  17. 17. US Consumption Indicators Variations in consumer activity are a leading indicator of the strength of the economy. We track consumer sentiment (their expec- tations about the future), consumer loan activity (indicator of new purchase activity), and new orders and sales of consumer goods. U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Index1966Q1=100 5060708090110 median: 88.80 Jan 2016: 92.00 Consumer Loans (All banks) YoY%Change −10010203040 median: 7.50 Jan 2016: 6.16 Accounting Change Deliquency Rate on Consumer Loans Percent 2.03.04.0 median: 3.46 2015 Q4: 2.02 New Orders: Durable Consumer Goods YoY%Change −20020 median: 4.19 Dec 2015: 2.80 New Orders: Non−durable Consumer Goods YoY%Change −2001020 median: 4.20 Dec 2015: −8.06 Personal Consumption & Housing Index Index −0.40.00.20.4 median: 0.02 Dec 2015: −0.07above ave growth below ave growth Light Cars and Trucks Sales MillionsofUnits 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10121416182022 median: 14.84 Jan 2016: 17.46 Personal Saving Rate Percent 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 246810 median: 5.50 Dec 2015: 5.50 Real Retail and Food Services Sales YoY%Change 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −10−505 median: 2.45 Jan 2016: 2.07 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 17
  18. 18. US Housing Housing construction is only about 5-8% of the US economy, how- ever a house is typically the largest asset owned by a household. Since personal consumption is about 70% of the US economy and house val- ues directly impact household wealth, housing is an important indicator in the health of the overall economy. In particular, housing investment was an important driver of the economy getting out of the last few recessions (though not this one so far). Here we track housing prices and especially indicators which show the current state of the housing market. 15 20 25 30 35 150200250300 Personal Income vs. Housing Prices (Inflation adjusted values) NewHomePrice(000's) Disposable Income Per Capita (000's) Dec 2015 r2 : 89.6% Range: Jan 1959 − Dec 2015 Blue dots > +5% change in next year Red dots < −5% change in next year New Housing Units Permits Authorized MillionsofUnits 0.51.01.52.02.5 median: 1.34 Jan 2016: 1.20 New Home Median Sale Price SalePrice$000's 100150200250300 Dec 2015: 288.90 Homeowner's Equity Level Percent 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 4050607080 median: 66.50 2015 Q3: 56.70 New Homes: Median Months on the Market Months 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 468101214 median: 4.90 Dec 2015: 3.00 US Monthly Supply of Homes MonthsSupply 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 4681012 median: 5.90 Dec 2015: 5.20 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 18
  19. 19. US Housing - FHFA Quarterly Index The Federal Housing Finance Agency provides a quarterly survey on house prices, based on sales prices and appraisal data. This gener- ates a housing index for 355 municipal areas in the US from 1979 to present. We have provided an alternative view of this data looking at the change in prices from the peak in the 2007 time frame. The goal is to provide a sense of where the housing markets are weak versus strong.The colours represent gain or losses since the start of the housing crisis (defined as the maximum price between 2007-2009 for each city). The circled dots are the cities in the survey, while the background colours are interpolated from these points using a loess smoother. Change from 2007 Peak − Q3 2015 −50% −40% −30% −20% −10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Today's Home Prices Percentage Change from 2007−2009 Peak Frequency −75% −50% −25% 0% 25% 50% 75% Year over Year Change − Q3 2015 −10% −8% −6% −4% −2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% YoY Change in this quarter YoY Percent Change Frequency −15% −10% −5% 0% 5% 10% 15% www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 19
  20. 20. Global Housing The Bank for International Settlements has begun collecting global housing indicies, which are useful for showing what has been happening with global house prices. Note that these are not all the same data set - each country measures housing prices in slightly different ways, so they are only broadly comparable. Black lines are the data series, blue bars on the right axis show the year over year percent change. Brazil − Metro All Dwellings Q12011=100 6080100140 Oct 2015: 140.76 Chile − All Dwellings Jun 2015: 127.92 Peru (Lima) − All Dwellings Sep 2015: 188.63 −4002040 Mexico − All Dwellings Q12011=100 6080100140 Sep 2015: 127.11 China (Beijing) − All Dwellings Nov 2015: 130.87 Hong Kong − Residential Prices Nov 2015: 171.01 −4002040 Indonesia − Major Cities housing Q12011=100 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 6080100140 Sep 2015: 135.00 India − Major Cities housing 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Sep 2015: 205.91 Singapore − All Dwellings 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Sep 2015: 100.00 −4002040 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 20
  21. 21. Philippines (Manila) − Flats Q12011=100 6080120 Sep 2015: 146.25 Japan − All Dwellings Oct 2015: 103.90 Australia − All Dwellings Sep 2015: 126.97 −4002040 New Zealand − All Dwellings Big Cities Q12011=100 6080120 Sep 2015: 153.58 Turkey − All Dwellings Nov 2015: 191.35 South Africa − Residential Dec 2015: 113.54 −4002040 Israel − All Dwellings Q12011=100 6080120 Oct 2015: 133.33 Korea − All Dwellings Dec 2015: 113.80 Russia − All Dwellings (Urban) Sep 2015: 123.98 −4002040 Euro zone − All Dwellings Q12011=100 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 6080120 Sep 2015: 99.15 Canada − New Houses 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Nov 2015: 109.40 US − New Single Family Houses 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Dec 2015: 123.48 −4002040 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 21
  22. 22. Global Business Indicators Global Manufacturing PMI Reports The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator reflecting purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. An index read- ing of 50.0 means that business conditions are unchanged, a number over 50.0 indicates an improvement while anything below 50.0 suggests a decline. The further away from 50.0 the index is, the stronger the change over the month. The chart at the bottom shows a moving av- erage of a number of PMI’s, along with standard deviation bands to show a global average. Global M−PMI − January 2016 <40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 >60.0 Steady ExpandingContracting Eurozone 52.3 Global PMI 50.9 TWN 50.6MEX 52.2 KOR 49.5 JPN 52.3 VNM 51.5 IDN 48.9 ZAF 49.6 AUS 51.5 BRA 47.4 CAN 49.3 CHN 48.4 IND 51.1 RUS 49.8 SAU 53.9 USA 52.4 Global M−PMI Monthly Change <−5.0 −4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0 PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating Eurozone −0.9 Global PMI 0.2 TWN −1.1MEX −0.2 KOR −1.2 JPN −0.3 VNM 0.2 IDN 1.1 ZAF 0.5 AUS −0.4 BRA 1.8 CAN 1.8 CHN 0.2 IND 2.0 RUS 1.1 SAU −0.5 USA 1.2 Purchase Managers Index (Manufacturing) − China, Japan, USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Australia 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 3040506070 3040506070 Business Conditions Contracting Business Conditions Expanding www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 22
  23. 23. Global Manufacturing PMI Chart This is an alternate view of the global PMI reports. Here, we look at all the various PMI data series in a single chart and watch their evolution over time. Red numbers indicate contraction (as estimated by PMI) while green numbers indicate expansion. Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 May14 Jun14 Jul14 Aug14 Sep14 Oct14 Nov14 Dec14 Jan15 Feb15 Mar15 Apr15 May15 Jun15 Jul15 Aug15 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Australia India Indonesia Viet Nam Taiwan China Korea Japan South Africa Saudi Arabia Turkey Russia United Kingdom Greece Germany France Italy Czech Republic Spain Poland Ireland Netherlands Eurozone Brazil Mexico Canada United States Global PMI 53.0 53.2 52.4 51.9 52.2 52.6 52.4 52.6 52.2 52.2 51.8 51.6 51.7 52.0 51.7 51.0 51.2 51.0 51.0 50.7 50.7 51.3 51.2 50.7 50.9 53.7 57.1 55.5 55.4 56.4 57.3 55.8 57.9 57.5 55.9 54.8 53.9 53.9 55.1 55.7 54.1 54.0 53.6 53.8 53.0 53.1 54.1 52.8 51.2 52.4 51.7 52.9 53.3 52.9 52.2 53.5 54.3 54.8 53.5 55.3 55.3 53.9 51.0 48.7 48.9 49.0 49.8 51.3 50.8 49.4 48.6 48.0 48.6 47.5 49.3 54.0 52.0 51.7 51.8 51.9 51.8 51.5 52.1 52.6 53.3 54.3 55.3 56.6 54.4 53.8 53.8 53.3 52.0 52.9 52.4 52.1 53.0 53.0 52.4 52.2 50.8 50.4 50.6 49.3 48.8 48.7 49.1 50.2 49.3 49.1 48.7 50.2 50.7 49.6 46.2 46.0 45.9 46.5 47.2 45.8 47.0 44.1 43.8 45.6 47.4 54.0 53.2 53.0 53.4 52.2 51.8 51.8 50.7 50.3 50.6 50.1 50.6 51.0 51.0 52.2 52.0 52.2 52.5 52.4 52.3 52.0 52.3 52.8 53.2 52.3 54.8 55.2 53.7 53.4 53.6 52.3 53.5 51.7 52.2 53.0 54.6 53.6 54.1 52.2 52.5 54.0 55.5 56.2 56.0 53.9 53.0 53.7 53.5 53.4 52.4 52.8 52.9 55.5 56.1 55.0 55.3 55.4 57.3 55.7 56.6 56.2 56.9 55.1 57.5 56.8 55.8 57.1 54.6 56.7 53.6 53.8 53.6 53.3 54.2 54.3 55.4 55.9 54.0 52.0 50.8 50.3 49.4 49.0 49.5 51.2 53.2 52.8 55.2 55.1 54.8 54.0 52.4 54.3 54.5 51.1 50.9 52.2 52.1 52.1 50.9 52.2 52.5 52.8 52.7 52.9 54.6 53.9 52.8 52.6 52.6 54.7 53.8 54.7 54.2 54.3 54.2 55.8 54.5 53.6 53.2 51.7 51.3 53.1 53.0 55.4 55.9 56.5 55.5 56.5 57.3 54.7 56.5 54.3 55.6 54.4 55.6 53.3 56.1 55.6 56.1 54.7 55.5 56.9 57.5 56.6 55.5 54.0 54.2 55.6 56.9 53.1 52.3 52.4 54.0 53.2 52.6 51.9 49.8 50.7 49.0 49.0 48.4 49.9 51.9 53.3 53.8 54.8 54.1 55.3 53.8 52.7 54.1 54.9 55.6 53.2 49.3 49.7 52.1 51.2 49.6 48.2 47.8 46.9 48.8 48.5 48.4 47.5 49.2 47.6 48.8 48.0 49.4 50.7 49.6 48.3 50.6 50.6 50.6 51.4 50.0 56.5 54.8 53.7 54.1 52.3 52.0 52.4 51.4 49.9 51.4 49.5 51.2 50.9 51.1 52.8 52.1 51.1 51.9 51.8 53.3 52.3 52.1 52.9 53.2 52.3 51.2 51.3 49.7 51.1 51.0 49.4 48.7 50.1 48.4 48.8 49.1 49.4 48.3 48.4 48.9 46.5 48.0 46.9 30.2 39.1 43.3 47.3 48.1 50.2 50.0 56.7 56.2 55.3 57.3 57.0 57.5 55.4 52.5 51.6 53.2 53.5 52.5 53.1 54.1 54.4 51.9 52.0 51.4 51.9 51.6 51.8 55.5 52.7 51.9 52.9 48.0 48.5 48.3 48.5 48.9 49.1 51.0 51.0 50.4 50.3 51.7 48.9 47.6 49.7 48.1 48.9 47.6 48.7 48.3 47.9 49.1 50.2 50.1 48.7 49.8 52.7 53.4 51.7 51.1 50.1 48.8 48.5 50.3 50.4 51.5 52.2 51.4 49.8 49.6 48.0 48.5 50.2 49.0 50.1 49.3 48.0 49.5 50.9 52.2 50.9 59.7 58.6 57.0 58.5 57.0 59.2 60.1 60.7 61.8 59.1 57.6 57.9 57.8 58.5 60.1 58.3 57.0 56.1 57.5 58.7 56.5 55.7 56.3 54.4 53.9 50.3 51.5 50.3 47.4 44.3 46.6 45.9 49.0 50.7 52.7 50.5 50.2 49.8 50.0 51.6 51.5 50.1 49.2 48.9 49.3 47.9 47.5 49.6 49.1 49.6 56.6 55.5 53.9 49.4 49.9 51.5 50.5 52.5 51.7 52.4 52.0 52.0 52.2 51.6 50.3 49.9 50.9 50.1 51.2 51.7 51.0 52.4 52.6 52.6 52.3 50.9 49.8 50.4 50.2 49.5 48.4 49.3 50.3 48.8 48.7 49.0 49.9 51.1 51.1 49.2 48.8 47.8 46.1 47.6 47.9 49.2 49.1 49.1 50.7 49.5 49.5 48.5 48.0 48.1 49.4 50.7 51.7 50.2 50.2 50.4 50.0 49.6 49.7 50.7 49.6 48.9 49.2 49.4 47.8 47.3 47.2 48.3 48.6 48.2 48.4 55.5 54.7 52.7 52.3 52.4 54.0 55.8 56.1 53.3 52.0 51.4 50.0 51.7 52.1 51.0 49.2 49.3 46.3 47.1 46.1 46.9 47.8 49.5 51.7 50.6 52.1 51.0 51.3 53.1 52.5 52.3 51.7 50.3 51.7 51.0 52.1 52.7 51.5 51.7 50.7 53.5 54.8 52.2 52.6 51.3 49.5 50.1 49.4 51.3 51.5 51.0 50.5 50.1 51.1 52.4 52.7 52.7 49.5 50.7 49.2 48.0 47.6 48.5 47.5 46.4 46.7 47.1 47.8 47.3 48.4 47.4 47.8 46.9 47.8 48.9 51.4 52.5 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.5 53.0 52.4 51.0 51.6 53.3 54.5 52.9 51.2 52.1 51.3 52.6 51.3 52.7 52.3 51.2 50.7 50.3 49.1 51.1 46.7 48.6 47.9 44.8 49.2 48.9 50.7 47.3 46.5 49.4 50.1 46.9 49.0 45.4 46.3 48.0 52.3 44.2 50.4 51.7 52.1 50.2 52.5 51.9 51.5 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 23
  24. 24. Canadian Indicators Retail Trade (SA) YoYPercentChange −50510 median: 4.66 Dec 2015: 2.57 Total Manufacturing Sales Growth YoYPercentGrowth −20−1001020 median: 3.79 Dec 2015: −1.59 Manufacturing New Orders Growth YoYPercentGrowth −30−100102030 median: 4.17 Dec 2015: −6.54 10yr Government Bond Yields 0246810 median: 5.69 Jan 2016: 1.24 Manufacturing PMI 48505254 Jan 2016: 49.30 Sales and New Orders (SA) YoYPercentChange −20−1001020 Sales New Orders (smoothed) Tbill Yield Spread (10 yr − 3mo) Spread(Percent) 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −101234 median: 1.31 Jan 2016: 0.76 Inflation (total and core) YoYPercentChange 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −101234 median: 1.92 Jan 2016: 2.01 Total Core Inventory to Sales Ratio (SA) Ratio 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1.31.41.51.6 median: 1.35 Dec 2015: 1.40 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 24
  25. 25. 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 1.31.41.51.61.71.81.9 Beveridge Curve (Mar 2011 − Oct 2015) as.numeric(can.bev$ui.rate) as.numeric(can.bev$vacancies) Mar 2011 − Dec 2012 Jan 2013 − Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Unemployment Rate JobVacancyrate(Industrial) Ownership/Rental Price Ratio RatioofAccomodationOwnership/RentRatio 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 90100110120130140150 Calgary Montreal Vancouver Toronto Note: Using prices relative to 2002 as base year Ownership relatively more expensive vs 2002 Rent relatively more expensive vs 2002 Unemployment Rate (SA) Percent 345678910 Canada 7.2% Alberta 7.4% Ontario 6.7% Debt Service Ratios (SA) Percent 0246810 Total Debt: 6.3% Mortgage: 3.3% Consumer Debt: 6.2% Housing Starts and Building Permits (smoothed) YoYPercentChange 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −40−2002040 Permits Starts www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 25
  26. 26. European Indicators Unemployment Rates Percentage 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 051015202530 FR DE GB IT GR ES EU Business Employment Expectations Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −40−20010 Industrial Orderbook Levels Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −60−40−20020 Country Employment Expect. Unempl. (%) Bond Yields (%) Retail Turnover Manufacturing Turnover Inflation (YoY %) Industry Orderbook PMI Series Dates Jan 2016 Jan 2016 Jan 2016 Dec 2015 Dec 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2016 France -9.1 J 10.2 K 0.84 J 105.1 I 110.4 I 0.3 I -12.5 J 50.0 J Germany -4.3 J 4.5 K 0.43 J NA 114.6 I 0.2 J -7.7 I 52.3 J United Kingdom 1.7 J 5.1 K 1.73 J 112.8 J NA 0.1 I -13.4 J 52.9 I Italy -1.5 J 11.4 K 1.53 J 101.1 I NA 0.1 J -13.4 J 53.2 J Greece -7.7 J 24.6 J 9.08 I NA NA 0.4 I -26.9 I 50.0 J Spain -1.0 J 20.8 J 1.72 I NA NA -0.1 I -3.8 J 55.4 I Eurozone (EU28) -2.3 J 9.0 K 1.42 J 106.8 J 109.8 J 0.1 I -11.1 J NA www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 26
  27. 27. Government Bond YieldsLongTermYields% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0246810 Economic Sentiment Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 60708090110130 Consumer Confidence Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −100−60−20020 Inflation (Harmonized Prices) 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 median: 1.90 Dec 2015: 0.20 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Euro Area US Harmonized Inflation: Nov 2015 AUT 1.1% BGR −0.9% DEU 0.2% ESP −0.1% FIN −0.3% FRA 0.3% GBR 0.1% GRC 0.4% HRV −0.3% HUN 1.0% IRL 0.2% ISL 0.7% ITA 0.1% NOR 2.4% POL −0.5% ROU −0.7% SWE 0.7% <−1.0%0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% >7.0% YoY % Change in Prices PMI: January 2016 <40.042.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0>60.0 Steady ExpandingContracting BRA 47.4 CAN 49.3 DEU 52.3 ESP 55.4 FRA 50.0 GBR 52.9 GRC 50.0 IRL 54.3 ITA 53.2 MEX 52.2 POL 50.9 SAU 53.9 TUR 50.9 USA 52.4 RUS 49.8 PMI Change: Dec − Jan <−5.0−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0 PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating CAN 1.8 DEU −0.9 ESP 2.4 FRA −1.4 GBR 1.0 GRC −0.2 IRL 0.1 ITA −2.4 POL −1.2 TUR −1.3 USA 1.2 RUS 1.1 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 27
  28. 28. Chinese Indicators Tracking the Chinese economy is a tricky. As reported in the Fi- nancial Times, Premier Li Keqiang confided to US officials in 2007 that gross domestic product was “man made” and “for reference only”. In- stead, he suggested that it was much more useful to focus on three alter- native indicators: electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and bank lending (still tracking down that last one). We also include the PMI - which is an official version put out by the Chinese government and differs slightly from an HSBC version. Finally we include the Shanghai Composite Index as a measure of stock performance. Manufacturing PMI 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 4045505560 Jan 2016: 48.40 Shanghai Composite Index IndexValue(MonthlyHigh/Low) 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0100030005000 Feb 2016: 2763.49 Electricity Generated 100MillionKWH(logscale) 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1000200030005000 Dec 2015: 4910.00 Electricity Generated Long Term Trend Short Term Average Consumer Confidence Index Index 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 98100102104106108110 median: 103.85 Dec 2015: 103.70 Exports YoYPercentChange 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −20020406080 median: 18.40 Dec 2015: −1.40 Retail Sales Growth YoYPercentChange 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 101520 median: 12.90 Dec 2015: 11.10 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 28
  29. 29. Global Climate Change Temperature and precipitation data are taken from the US National Climatic Data Center and presented as the average monthly anomaly from the previous 6 months. Anomalies are defined as the difference from the average value over the period from 1971-2000 for the tem- perature map and over the 20th century for the global temparature chart. Average Temperature Anomalies from Jul 2015 - Dec 2015 <−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 >4.0 Anomalies in Celcius WarmerCooler Anomalies in Celcius −4 −2 0 2 4 Historic Global Temperature Deviations DegreesCelciusDeviations −0.50.00.51.0 Jan 2016: 1.04 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 www.lairdresearch.com February 22, 2016 Page 29

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