Populations Of Jerusalem
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    Populations Of Jerusalem Populations Of Jerusalem Presentation Transcript

    • JIIS Populations of Jerusalem Processes of Change, 1967-2006 Dr. Maya Choshen The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • A Unique City JIIS • Jerusalem has many layers, and different facets of it are interconnected to create a unique city, one of a kind and complicated. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Tangible and Intangible JIIS • One minute it is a city whose problems are mundane and material, • the next it is holy and ethereal – • everything depending on the beholder and his perspective. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Cities take on challenges and dangers JIIS Cities take on challenges and dangers, and Jerusalem is an extreme example of this. Demographic, political, and economic trends are woven in among social, cultural, environmental, and technological ones, and wield influence on the city itself and on its residents. A range of populations and the relations among them can inspire creativity, innovation, and positive change, or bring about tension, conflict, and violence. This charged city bears great hopes, but also dangers and threats. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Jerusalem is Israel's largest city in: JIIS • Population – both Jews and Arabs Haifa • Jurisdiction – Twice the size of the 2nd largest city (Tel-Aviv) Tel-Aviv - Yafo Jerusalem • Not the country's major urban area: Israel's quot;corequot; is Metropolitan Tel Aviv Beer Sheva Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS Jerusalem Mosaic The neighborhood structure of Jerusalem and the social and cultural richness of its residents are part of its beauty and character but are also the source of its complexity and conflicts. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Jerusalem Mosaic JIIS • National Groups – Israelis – Palestinians • Religious Groups – Jews • Secular, Religious, Ultra-Orthodox – Christians – Muslims • Ways of life – Urban dwellers – Villagers Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Main Population Groups JIIS • There are 3 highly distinct sub-groups in Jerusalem Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Distribution of Population in Jerusalem JIIS • Jews: 66% – Thereof: Ultra Orthodox: 30% (20% of the total population) • Arabs: 34% – 95% Muslims Other Arab Jewish Ultra- Orthodox Muslim Jewish - quot;Generalquot; Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS • The differences between the various population groups and the spectrum of identities and interests that characterize the populations encourage and deepen the contradictions and rivalries among them. • Both of these lead to geographical segregation and competition over – economic resources – ways of life – and control of territory Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Socio-Economic Status JIIS • The Arab and the Ultra-Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods are the poorest Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Following the Six-Day War of 1967 JIIS • The re-unification of Jerusalem in 1967 brought about change whose influence is significant to this day: • The status of the city • The structure of its population Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Demographic Policy JIIS • Demographic goals are sometimes the driving force behind policy for the city's development. Since 1967 and to this day, the major demographic issue in Jerusalem is the question of the proportions of Jews to Arabs, and this is affected by the concern of losing the Jewish majority in the city -- the capital of the Jewish State of Israel. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Demographic Policy JIIS • Demographic goals are sometimes the driving force behind policy for the city • Since 1967 the big demographic issue in Jerusalem is the question of the proportions of Jews to Arabs • The aim of government policy is to preserve a Jewish majority in the city Population in Jerusale Population in Jerusalem by Population Group, 1967-2006 800 100% Percent of Jerusalem 26% 27% Arabs 29% 28% 32% 34% 80% 600 Jews Thousands Residents 60% 400 314 40% 74% 73% 71% 72% 266 68% 66% 84 20% 200 69 198 230 0% 0 1967 1972 1983 1990 2000 2006 1967 1972 Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS Demographic competition between the “General” and the Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Population • The continuing growth of the Ultra-Orthodox concerns the rest of the population: – The poor, Ultra-Orthodox population does not take full part in shouldering the tax burdens – Large municipal budgets are allocated to this population – The “general” population is also worried by the intolerance of the Ultra- Orthodox towards behavior it considers improper. Sources of conflict include: • Observation of the Shabbat and Jewish holidays • Non-religious cultural institutions (from theaters to restaurants) • Allocation of land for sectoral public services • Inward migration to “general” neighborhoods Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Demographic Trends JIIS Population in Jerusalem by Population Group, 1967-2006 • Over the forty years that 800 733 Arabs 658 have passed since 1967 252 600 Jews 525 209 the Arab population has Thousands 429 146 400 grown at a faster rate 266 314 122 84 than that of the Jewish 200 69 306 378 449 481 198 230 population. 0 1967 1972 1983 1990 2000 2006 Population in Jerusalem by Population Group, 1967-2006 100% 26% 27% 29% 28% Percent of Jerusalem 80% 32% 34% Residents 60% 40% 74% 73% 71% 72% 68% 66% 20% 0% 1967 1972 1983 1990 2000 2006 Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • The demographic balance in Jerusalem JIIS The Jewish majority is diminishing 1967 2007 Jews 74% 66% Arabs 26% 34% Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Population Growth 1967–2006 JIIS Israel Jerusalem Jewish 140% 143% Arab 260% 268% Total 156% Population Growth, 1967-2006 175% 300% 250% Population Growth 200% 150% Arab Arab 100% Jewish Jewish 50% 0% Jerusalem Israel Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS Together with the growth in population, the city’s built-up area has also grown and expanded 2006 Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS Together with the growth in population, the city’s built-up area has also grown and expanded. This data presents realities in Jerusalem that run counter to the government policy for the preservation of the demographic edge of Jews over Arabs. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS How did the city's population grow and reach its current state? Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Sources of Population Growth JIIS • There are three sources of growth that affect changes in population size: – Natural growth (the difference between births and deaths); – International migration (aliyah); – Internal migration (between localities within the country). Sources of Population Growth in Jerusalem, 1967- 2006 20 Thousand Residents 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Natural Increase Immigration Internal Migration Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS The differential increase of the various population groups is affected by differences in the rates of natural increase and by migration processes. • Natural growth is one of the most important sources of growth for both the Jewish and Arab populations of Jerusalem and is calculated by the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths. Over the years there have been changes in birth and mortality rates for both populations and they have affected the natural growth rates of each. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS In 1967 the natural growth rate of the Jewish population was far lower than that of the Arab population. The 1970s and 80's were characterized by a trend of rapid decline in the natural growth of the Arab population and by slow decline in the natural growth of the Jewish population. As a result, the gap between the two natural growth rates shrank, and in 1987 the Arab and Jewish natural growth rates were almost the same (24.5 for the Arab population and 23.2 for the Jewish population). However, in 1988, in response to the first intifada (similar to the quot;baby boomquot; in the U.S.), there was a renewed rise in the natural growth rate among the Arab population, which reached a peak in 1995. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Birth rates in Jerusalem JIIS Birth Rate in Jerusalem, 1967-2006 50 Rate per thousand 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Jews Arabs Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Fertility Rate, 2006 JIIS (Number of children a woman is expected to bear in her lifetime) Entire Muslim All Jews All Arabs Population Arabs Jerusalem 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 Israel 2.9 2.7 3.7 4.0 Tel Aviv- 2.0 1.9 .. .. Yafo Haifa 1.9 1.9 .. .. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Fertility Rate, Comparisons JIIS • Israel 2.9 • Jerusalem 3.9 • USA 2.1 • Greece 1.4 • Japan 1.2 • Gaza Strip 5.5 • West Bank 4.1 • Jordan 2.5 • Mexico 2.4 Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS • on average a woman in Jerusalem gives birth to twice the number of children a woman in Tel Aviv or Haifa does. In 2005 the total average fertility rate (the number of children to whom a woman is expected to give birth over her lifetime) was 3.8 in Jerusalem as compared to 2.8 in Israel overall or 1.9 children in Tel Aviv or Haifa. Yet over the last several years the fertility rate among Arab women in Israel and in Jerusalem in particular has been declining. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • ‫לי לא לעיצוב‬ JIIS • The birth rate among the Jewish population in Jerusalem is considerably higher than the rate among the Jewish population in the rest of Israel. This is largely due to the extremely high birth rate among Ultra-Orthodox women, who comprise 30% of the Jewish population of Jerusalem, and to the high birth rate among the religious (not Ultra-Orthodox) Jewish women in the city, who are also a sizable component of the city's Jewish population. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Mortality Rates in Jerusalem JIIS Decrease due to improvements in health conditions, health services, and preventative medicine Death Rate in Jerusalem, 1967-2006 10 Rate per thousand 8 6 4 2 0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 Jews Arabs Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Mortality JIIS • The mortality rate among the Arab population of Jerusalem fell from 9 per 1,000 residents in 1967 to 3.0 at the end of the 1990s and further to 2.9. This significant drop in the mortality rate is attributable to improvements in health conditions, health services, and preventative medicine. • Why, then, is the mortality rate among the Arab population lower than that among the Jewish population, despite the virtually identical level of services provided to all? Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Age Structure in Jerusalem JIIS 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 Arab Jewish 60-64 Age Group 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% Share of Population Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS • The answer lies in the differences between the age structures among the two populations. The Arab population is younger than the Jewish population. The percentage of young among the Arab population is higher than that among the Jewish population. Since the chances of survival (the chances of not dying) are higher among the young, and given that the level of health and welfare services are similar among both populations, the mortality rates among the younger population are lower than among the older population. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Immigrants to Jerusalem (Jews) JIIS Initial Settlement of Immigrants in Jerusalem, 2006-1967 16,000 Immigrants (Olim) 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • International Migration JIIS The development of Jerusalem after the Six-Day War took place at a time when most of the new immigrants came from wealthy countries. With the re-unification of the city and the return of control over the Old City, the Temple Mount, and the Western Wall – the religious and spiritual symbol of Jerusalem for the Jewish people – Jerusalem became a preferred destination for immigrants. Over these years many new immigrants chose Jerusalem as their place of residence and few left it. This made a significant contribution to the growth of the city's Jewish population . Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • International Migration JIIS • However, in the 1970s and up to the late 1980s the number of new immigrants that came to live in Jerusalem dropped. In these years, despite the fact that a high rate of immigrants from wealthy countries continued to choose to settle in Jerusalem, their numbers in absolute terms were relatively small. Due to the ongoing decline in the overall number of immigrants to Israel, the contribution of immigrants to the growth of Jerusalem's population became less significant. A sharp turnaround in immigration trends began with the large wave of immigrants from the former Soviet Union, which began in September 1989. Hundreds of thousands of new immigrants came to Israel in the 1990s, but Jerusalem absorbed only a small percentage of them. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Immigration from the former USSR in the 1990’s JIIS The main factors that discouraged immigrants from settling in Jerusalem: • High cost of housing • The high rate of employment in the public sector (which usually demanded full command of Hebrew) Initial Settlement of Immigrants in Jerusalem, 2006-1967 25% Percent of Immigrants to Israel 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS Internal Migration to and from Jerusalem, 1967-2006 Internal Migration to and from Jerusalem (Jewish) 20,000 incoming 15,000 outgoing balance 10,000 Migrants 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000 1982 1985 1988 1991 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Migration Movements – JIIS Internal migration • The first decade after reunification: positive migration balance • In the second decade: a low negative migration balance • Since 1988: a higher negative migration balance: Jerusalem has been losing about 5,000 to 8,000 residents a year Jerusalem 1990-2006 1990-2006 266,100 162,200 Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • ‫בשבילי‬ JIIS • The negative balance of migration, the development of suburban and rural areas for the middle class around Jerusalem, and the weakening of the appeal of the city to the non-religious, damaged the city's image both in the eyes of the city's residents and among Israelis in general. As a result of this, the attraction of the city was eroded especially among young, educated people from the middle and upper class, who became a smaller portion of those choosing to remain in the city. Many left for the suburbs and others moved farther out to the coastal plain and to other areas of the country. The result was a negative migration balance of these populations and shrinking in their portion of the city's population. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS The proportion of Jerusalem residents who are moving to the area around the city is on the rise, currently standing at about 50 percent of the migrants from the city. This trend has strengthened and developed Metropolitan Jerusalem. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Migration Balance by Districts JIIS Migration Balance to and from Jerusalem, by District, 1967-2006 20,000 0 Migrants -20,000 -40,000 -60,000 Jer & W. Bank TA & Central North, South & Haifa 1967-1976 1977-1986 1987-1996 1997-2006 Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • The Migration of the Arab Population JIIS Ramallah, A-Ram East Jerusalem Security Fence Bethlehem Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • “General” Jewish Population JIIS Tel-Aviv area Pisgat-Ze’ev Bet-Shemesh Maale Adumim Gilo Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Population JIIS Ultra-Orthodox localities Satellite Neigh. Ultra-Orthodox Center localities Satellite Neigh. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • quot;permanent residentsquot; JIIS • Since 1967 residents of East Jerusalem have been granted the status of quot;permanent residentsquot; of Israel, and they carry Israeli identity cards; although offered Israeli citizenship, for political reasons few Arab residents opted to accept it. • The status of permanent resident in Israel brings with it the right to participate in elections to the Jerusalem municipality, to vote and be elected. Carriers of this kind of card benefit from all the social rights granted to citizens of Israel, and all the benefits of national insurance and national health care. They are entitled to all national and municipal services to which all other citizens and residents of Israel are entitled. They also have full freedom to travel within Israel proper, and have free access to the labor market both in Jerusalem and in all of Israel. However, they do not have Israeli passports and do not have the right to vote in national elections for the Israeli parliament (the Knesset). Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS • In the period between the city's partition and re-unification, 1948-1967, the population of Israeli Jerusalem grew far faster than that of Jordanian Jerusalem. While the government of Israel instituted a policy of strengthening the western part of Jerusalem under its control, the Kingdom of Jordan preferred to develop its capital of Amman and encourage migration to it. Thus Jordanian Jerusalem was weakened and suffered from negative net migration that slowed down its population growth. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS • The first decade following the re-unification of Jerusalem was characterized by rapid economic growth and development in East Jerusalem as well as in all the rest of the city. • The incorporation of East Jerusalem and its transformation into a part of open Jerusalem, the capital of Israel, gave it and its inhabitants significant advantages compared to residents of other cities in the West Bank. • Residents of Israel and the West Bank flooded in, tourism flourished, and investments in the physical and social infrastructure grew significantly in comparison to those in the period of Jordanian rule. • The economic growth turned the city into a magnet for Arabs from the West Bank. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS If in the first decade Arab building was mostly significant within Jerusalem, towards the end of the 1970 there was an upswing in the building starts in the Arab settlements near Jerusalem. Over the years a growing number of Arab residents of Jerusalem chose to move out of the city into the areas near the city. • The fence poses a dramatic change for Jerusalem and makes a substantial difference in the considerations of where the Arab population, inside and outside of the city, will choose to live. This is the reason that together with the progress in the building of the fence a growing number of Arabs have elected to move back into Jerusalem. The flow of migration into the city has created an increase in demand for housing. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS • As in metropolitan areas around the world, the Arabs of Jerusalem who left the city preserved close ties to the city. This applies to employment as well as to other sorts of services, including educational, health and welfare, that are generally supplied in the place of one's residence, and not in one's former place of residence. Since the end of the 1980s, with the outbreak of the first intifada, the Oslo process, and especially since 2000, with the second intifada and the resulting decision to build the separation fence, Arabs who previously moved out of the city have strengthened their ties to it and its institutions. This is due to their concern that their permanent residence status and all its associated rights will be revoked, including their right to work and live in the city -- if at some time they should want to return to it. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Population Projection JIIS thousands 1,000 projection 800 600 ARABS 400 JEWS 200 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1967 2000 2020 198,000 449,000 589,000 Jews (74%) (69%) (62%) 69,000 209,000 358,000 Arabs (26%) (31%) (38%) 267,000 658,000 947,000 Total (100%) (100%) (100%) Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies Source: Sergio Della Pergola
    • JIIS From the demographic data, it is quite clear that the total population of Jerusalem is bound to increase quite substantially in the coming decades. At the same time, there are many imponderables – political, economic, social – which means that there are a broad range of possible scenarios. Projections regarding the population of Jerusalem indicate that if current demographic trends continue, in the year 2020 the population will reach about 960,000 – 60% of which will be Jewish and 40% of which will be Arab • This is evidence of the failure of the government’s demographic policy Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS Population projection - trends 2000 2020 2035 Jews 69% 60% 50% Arabs 31% 40% 50% Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Population Projection by Group JIIS 100% Arab Higher Status 31% 33% 36% Lower Status 80% 38% 39% Ultra-Orthodox 60% 23% 22% 21% 19% 18% 40% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 20% 29% 29% 29% 28% 29% 0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS Demographic processes reflect the interplay between the characteristics of the population at a given time and economic, social, and political processes in the country in general and a specific city or region in particular. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS • Population trends are tightly correlated with employment and housing opportunities • existing locally, with the availability and quality of public services, and • with the general character of the metropolitan area centered in Jerusalem and around it Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS • A different approach to the issue of controlling urban population size and composition from the point of view of ethno-demographic equilibrium concerns possible manipulations of city borders, in the framework of a reorganization of Jerusalem’s metropolitan area. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Potential Key Changes JIIS • Social-Cultural: Quality of life – Participation in the labor force – Schooling and education – Involvement and participation in all areas of urban life • Structural-Political – Changes in the municipal administrational structure – Changes in the city borders • The Image of the City Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS Some control over population size and distribution may be achieved, at least in theory, through manipulating the various operative variables responsible for demographic change, as well as through further administrative policy-making Instruments, inter-city and international migration balances, as well as fertility. The main types of possible policy interventions aimed at affecting Jerusalem’s population size and composition levels are highly sensitive to life quality opportunities in the urban context. Policies affecting employment, housing, physical environment, municipal services, and personal and collective security may have significant effects on trends of inward and outward migration. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS One important consequence of these population movements, actually observed in the past and further expected according to the projections, is a lowering of the average socioeconomic status of the population living in Jerusalem. In this context, the expected decline in the weight of Jewish areas of the overall population, especially among children and younger adults, calls for careful consideration. In the much longer term, the population projections presented here suggest a possible shift of the majority of Jerusalem’s population from the Jewish parts to the Arab and other parts. On the other hand, perhaps contrary to diffuse public perceptions, the projections do point to only moderate increase in the weight of the highly religious sections of the Jewish population in relation to the total Jewish population in 2020, as compared to the situation in 1995. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS • Regarding Jerusalem’s socio-cultural characteristics, enhanced growth of one particular subpopulation and the consequent relative shrinking of another subpopulation might induce members of the latter to feel endangered, through a complex interplay of perceptions and realities. This has stimulated in the past, as it might in the future, selective emigration from the city, thus further affecting the share • of each particular subpopulation among the total. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS • As one of the main causes for differential population growth continues to be differences in fertility, the question that naturally arises is whether and how existing gaps can be significantly reduced, leading in the much longer run to more balanced rates of growth among the various subpopulations. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • JIIS • A necessary, though perhaps insufficient factor would be the toning down of political and cultural tensions between the main subpopulations involved in the Jerusalem mosaic, particularly between Israelis and Palestinians, and between the Jewish Ultra-Orthodox minority and the majority, general Jewish population. Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    • Populations of Jerusalem Processes of Change, 1967-2006 Dr. Maya Choshen The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies Thank you JIIS Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies