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Egypt needs sophisticated emergency management

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  • 1. 11/7/2012PRESENTED CRISIS MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR ARABBY SUMITJHA REPUBLIC OF EGYPT White Paper | Sumit Jha (jhasumit@gmail.com)
  • 2. ContentsAssessment of the need of sophisticated crisis management system ................................................... 3 Egypt - An outlook............................................................................................................................... 3 Internal Security .................................................................................................................................. 4 Border Security ................................................................................................................................... 4 Preparedness against and mitigation of natural calamities ............................................................... 5 Safeguarding the commercial interests, especially in Oil & Gas and Tourism ................................... 5 Easing traffic congestion ..................................................................................................................... 6 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Annexure ............................................................................................................................................. 8
  • 3. Assessment of the need of sophisticated crisis management systemEgypt - An outlookEgypt has recently elected a democratic government that is committed to the welfare of the people.However, the popular uprising that began on 25th of January 2011 and resulted in overthrowing ofthe long standing autocratic rule of Hosni Mubarak created a void in the rule of the law. The result isthat, even with the best intentions of the President Morsi government, the security concernsremain. Terrorist activities have come to the light and there have been conflicts on the border.This uncertainty is having a negative impact on the economy of Egypt. According to AfricanDevelopment Bank “The political and security uncertainty and accompanying economic costs alsomean real GDP is expected to grow at a modest rate of 1.7% in 2011/12 and 3.6% in 2012/13. Themood could also lead to greater demand fordollars and lower bank deposits, which in turn Egypt Nominal GDP in Billion US$would encourage more capital outflows.” 300.0 252.5 253.4 250.0 236.0Foreign direct investment decreased by 67.6% 219.0 189.0in 2010/11, to a low of USD 2.2 billion, less than 200.0 162.01% of GDP (against 3.1% of GDP in 2009/10). 150.0 130.0Further, foreign exchange reserves have fallen 100.0from $36 billion in December 2010 to only 50.0$16.3 billion in January 2012. 0.0The rating agencies globally have rushed to 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: International Monetary Fund, 2012downgrade the risk profile of Egypt. InFebruary 2012, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) rating agency lowered the Egypt’s credit rating from B+ to Bin the long term. Further, S&Ps has given Egypts banks a Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment(BICRA) score 1 of 8 out of 10, reflecting what it says are the countrys risks in resilience, credit andeconomic imbalances.Consumer price inflation has remained very high and expected to remain in double digits (10.8% in2012 and 11.9% in 2013) in the near future. Fiscal deficit is expected to remain in the high singledigits (9.8% in 2012 and 8.7% in 2013).All these factors show an urgent need for capital formation and growth in the economic activities.Egypt has benefited from Foreign Direct Investment till 2010 and this can continue if securityconcerns are allayed. Egypt on its part is trying to woo the foreign investors. A tightening securityand an emergency management system will allow Egypt to reign in and circumvent the protests likethe one that happened last month at the U.S. Embassy in Cairo.President Morsi and his government have sent all the right signals by putting security and welfare ofthe people at the forefront of their policies. According to President Morsi "The main axis isinvestment, encouraging investors, tourism, foreign trade, exports. That is what we are aiming formore than loans."1 Higher the score, higher the risk perception
  • 4. Apart from these threats, the landscape of the Egypt has faced some of the worst famines, floods,earthquakes and sandstorms. According to PreventionWeb, from 1980 to 2010, Egypt has faced 23cases of natural disaster, which has affected 262,864 people.Another aspect that president Morsi is concerned about is the growing congestion in Cairo that isresulting in huge losses to the GDP and slowing down the economic activities. Apart from security,dealing with sticky traffic congestion problem is a key performance parameter for Morsi regime.Added to these are the multiple cases of fires at its commercial establishments especially within Oil& Gas industry, which is one of the largest foreign exchange earning industries for Egypt.The newly formed democracy has the citizen’s dreams and well-being as its biggest goal. Herein liethe need for evaluation and strengthening of five of the most critical areas that needs attention: 1) Internal Security 2) Border Security 3) Preparedness against and mitigation of natural calamities 4) Safeguarding the commercial interests especially oil & gas and tourism 5) Easing traffic congestionInternal SecurityInternal security concerns were brought to forefront by the recent raid on a terrorist cell at Cairoseastern district of Nasr City. This has alarmed the countries like UK and the US with UK raising thethreat level of Egypt and the US warning Americans of jihad terror Egypt.Apart from the foreign governments taking an adverse stance of Egypt’s internal security, this hasset the warning bells ringing in Egypt. The Egyptian Minister of Interior announced that there wouldbe daily briefings about this grave issue targeting national security. The Minister added that nationalsecurity forces have foiled several crimes over the past few days.The terrorist activities in Egypt have a long history but it had mostly been confined to the Sinairegion, which bears its borders with the disputed land between Egypt and Israel. The arrest hasraised fears that the violence that has swept the Sinai Peninsula could move to Cairo and theregional provinces.Several terrorist activities and mass uprisings have resulted in death of several citizens and loss ofproperty worth millions of dollars in the last two years (annexure 1).Border SecurityEgypt has been embroiled in a long standing border dispute with Israel, Libya and Sudan. The borderissue with Israel flared up in the month of August this year. The Egypt air force retaliated to thekilling of 16 Egyptian soldiers on the Sinai border by the militants who tried to get into Israeli landafter the attacks.This is not a one-off instance of skirmishes between two neighbours who share 266 KMs of border.Egypt and Israel have fought 5 wars since 1948. Tensions between these two countries have seizedsomewhat after the 1979 Camp David treaty but the peace has been uneasy with accusations andcounter-accusations between these two countries.
  • 5. Recently, Egypt had been complaining about arms being smuggled from Libya and there has beentension Egypt 1,115 km of border that these countries share. Egypt and Libya have a history ofconflict and these countries waged a war in 1977. However, the war between these two countrieswas a result of differing ideologies and mutual mistrust.Egypt’s relationship with Sudan has not been as bad but their 1,273 KM border has not been devoidof disputes. Hala’ib Triangle is the bone of contention between Egypt and Sudan with both claimingthe disputed land.Preparedness against and mitigation of natural calamities Egypt is one of the largest countries in Africa but due to the aridity of Egypts climate, populationcentres are concentrated along the narrow Nile Valley and Delta. Approximately 99% of thepopulation uses only about 5.5% of the total land area. Nile, which is a lifeline for Egypt, is alsoprone to frequent floods. The region also experiences periodic droughts, frequent earthquakes, flashfloods, landslides, windstorms (Khamsin), dust storms and sandstorms.Natural Disasters from 1980 - 2010No of events 23No of people killed 1,527Average killed per year 49No of people affected 262,864Average affected per year: 8,479Economic Damage (In US$ ‘000) 1,342,000Economic Damage per year (In US$ ‘000) 43,290 Source: PreventionWebHuman Exposure Hazard type Population exposed Country rankingDrought 1,123,270 50th out of 184Flood 186,346 17th out of 162Earthquake 1,116,761 21st out of 153Tsunami 204,376 13th out of 76Rank 1 means that the human exposure is the most extreme in that country in comparison to other countriesEconomic Exposure Hazard type GDP exposed (billions-US$) Country rankingFlood 0.33 31st out of 162Earthquake 18.00 28th out of 153Tsunami 0.62 17th out of 76Rank 1 means that the economic exposure is the most extreme in that country in comparison to other countriesSource: PreventionWebSafeguarding the commercial interests, especially in Oil & Gas and TourismAccording to African Economic outlook, Oil & Gas contributes to 14.5% to the GDP real GDP in 2010.Further, according to Revenue Watch Institute, , the Oil & Gas industry constituted between 44 to 55percent of total exports from 2005-09. Add to this the fact that the Suez Canal and Sumed Pipelineare strategic routes for Persian Gulf oil shipments, making Oil & Gas key sector for Egypt.
  • 6. According to Eurojournal, Travel and Tourism generated US$14 billion in export revenue,representing 22% of total exports in 2010 making travel & Tourism another key sector for thegrowth of Egypt. Further, Travel and Tourism is one of the largest contributors of foreign exchangeearnings to Egypt.These two sectors are vulnerable to the security concerns in Egypt. Between Feb 2011 and Sep 2012,14 separate bomb attacks have been conducted on gas pipeline & terminals. There have beenaccidental fire and gas blow out in Egypt injuring and killing people and resulting in revenue losses(Refer to annexure 2).Similarly, there have been more than 6 separate attacks (Refer to annexure 1) on tourists leading toloss in confidence for Egypt. As stated above, UK and the US have already shown their concern.According to Tourism ministry, the number of tourists who visited Egypt in 2011 declined 33 percentfrom 2010. This decline has continued in 2012 as well. The central bank has cited this to be one ofthe reasons for the widening of current account deficit.Easing traffic congestionTraffic congestion in Egypt’s capital city of Cairo is one of the worst in the region. According to WorldBank, as much as $8 billion is lost due to negative impact on productivity, delays and excess fuelconsumption in Cairo. That amounts to about 3 percent of gross domestic product. The problem isso big and important that President Morsi had put this as one of his key performance indicators forhis first 100 days in the office.ConclusionThe problems in Egypt can be overcome by advancing emergency preparedness, response, recoveryand mitigation in the country.We suggest the following solutions to prevent or mitigate consequences of any inimical situationarising in Egypt: • Incident Management System: At the heart of the solution lies an automated and collaborative Incident Management System which captures all information sources and manages various tasks in a user-defined manner. The system can be integrated with Egypt’s existing security and public safety systems and provides dashboard single unified “dashboard view” for emergency operation centers (EOCs) • Emergency Response Centre (EOC): A fully functional mobile EOC which can be deployed at disaster site. The vehicle is equipped with state-of-the-art communication facilities to coordinate Emergency Response Vehicle activities from State and other EOCs. • Unified Communication: A multi-platform communication exchange capability integrating data, video and voice communications. • Integrated Alert and Warning System: providing multi-modal alert and warnings for the public and/or emergency response agencies. • Multi-tier EOC Network: An integrated multi-server solution that connects multiple EOCs into a single unified and robust emergency network for enhanced communication, collaboration and coordination.
  • 7. Key components of the solution RecommendedKey Components Functions & Features Advantages Solution • Simple Event Logging and Reporting • Lower integration costs Crisis Management • Resource Management • Lower training costs and rapid System • Geo-based Alerting adoption • Open Web Mapping and Hazard Models • Enhanced situational awareness • High resolution network security surveillance equipment connect through • 24x7x365 monitoring and IP network observation Surveillance System • Low-noise level • Low-light sensitivity • Motion detection; Video loss alarm • Multi-stream, multi-format I/O with multi- Identification of: user operation • Any unusual event Video Management • Real-time graphical visualization, • Any unattended object System with Video archival, retrieval and playback • Any suspicious person Analytics • Seamlessly integrate with existing legacy • Recording and playback of video cameras, DVRs • Allows snapshot from video stream • Advanced Analytics features • Single Point of Contact • Instant Messaging Unified • Instant messaging on one click • Video Calling Communication • Connectivity through heterogeneous • Conference, Unified Messaging System communication medium • Integration and Customization • Invoke a voice or video call • Automatic Call Distribution and Routing within the Contact Centre • Secondary support • Automatic Attendant for times when call Contact Centre • Layers of communication volume is beyond capacity designed in a fail-safe mode • Universal queuing of incoming calls • Unified and Centralized Databases • Local and remote data back up • Cloud hosting of applications for • Data recovery cost effective solution Data Centre • Risk Coverage from specific natural and • DR site as a back-up for critical man-made disasters applications or data • Customized data access • Easy tracking of vehicles using GPS • Vehicle tracking Automatic Vehicle trackers • Ability to respond faster in case of Location System • Location, Speed & Fuel monitoring an emergency situation Physical Security • Access control and all other allocated Information devices and systems, in order to provide • Integration with Electronic an on-line display of 2D / 3D geospatial Security Modules Management System • 3rd party integration of existing systemBibliographyhttp://www.jihadwatch.org/2012/10/us-embassy-warns-americans-of-jihad-terror-alert-in-egypt.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20184114http://www.preventionweb.net/english/policies/?cid=54http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/10/27/246256.htmlhttp://english.alarabiya.net/views/2012/11/01/247023.html
  • 8. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/world/middleeast/for-egyptians-no-relief-from-cairos-infamous-traffic.html?pagewanted=allAnnexureAnnexure 1 Internal Security Year Location Description Causalities Dahshur, South Clashes between Muslims, Coptic 01 August 2012 Cairo Christians and police 16 injuries 2-3 June 2012 Taba Tourist bus robbed N.A. 29 July 2012 Al-Arish Attack on police station N.A. Outside Defence Ministry building, Clashes between security authorities 20 dead, 150 April-May 2012 Cairo and demonstrators injured Clashes between authorities and 1 dead, 20 25 March 2012 Port Said football fans injured Outside US Clashes between security authorities 09 March 2012 Embassy, Cairo and demonstrators 66 injuries 11-12 Feb 2012 Nakhl Attack on police station by Bedouin N.A. 74 killed, 01 February 2012 Port Said Clashes between rival football fans 100s injured 16 dead, 4-6 Feb 2012 Cairo Violent demonstrations 2,500 injured 2 dead, 400 02 February 2012 Cairo, City of Suez Violent demonstrations injured 25 Chinese workers kidnapped and 31 January 2012 taken hostage by Bedouin tribesmen N.A. Outside Parliament, 31 January 2012 Cairo Violent demonstrations 40 injured Sharm el Sheikh old 01 January 2012 town Armed robbery N.A. 20 dead, 150 01 December 2011 Cairo Violent clashes injured 70 dead, 19 November 2011 Cairo Mass demonstration 2,500 injured 1 dead, 100s 18-24 Nov 2011 Across the nation Mass demonstration injured 24 dead, 9-10 Oct 2011 Mapero area, Cairo Violent clashes 100s injured Outside Israeli Embassy, Giza 3 dead, 100s 9-10 Sept 2011 District Violent clashes injured Abbasiya district, 23-24 July 2012 Cairo Violent clashes 300 injured Outside Coptic 21 dead, 80 01 January 2011 church, Cairo Suicide attack injured
  • 9. Annexure 2 Commercial Year Location Description Oil & Gas Industry Feb 2011- Sep 2012 Multiple 14 separate bomb attacks on gas pipeline & terminals Gas leak in Shams-4 field, operated by Khalda Petro. 2012 Matrih road Company Small explosions at Alexanderis Petro. Company 2012 Alexanderia surrounded by residential area 2012 Salam fields Fire accident, financial loss exceeded $1 m, 2 injured Huge explosion at Misr Petro. Gas station located in residential area, station workers were not trained to use 2010 Cairo safety equipment and lack adequate of fire extinguishers Gas blowout on the drilled platform Adriatic IV with 150 2004 Temsah workers on it Tourism 15-Jun-12 Suez Bus robbed & one Singaporean tourist kidnapped 30-May-12 Dahab Two US nationed wer kidnapped by armed tribesmen 23-Mar-12 Nuweiba A Czeb tour guide was kidnapped on gun point St. Catherine 18-Mar-12 Monestry Two Brazilian women kidnapped by armed Bedouin Sharm el Mar-12 Sheikh Two robberies in tourists bus at gun point at late night 10-Feb-12 Sinai 2 US tourists & their guide were kidnapped May-09 Cario Bomb explosion outside Coptic church Bomb explosion in Khan al Khalili market killing 1 tourist Feb-09 Cario and more than 20 other foreign tourists were injured A number of bomb attacks on resorts & markets in Sinai2004 - 2012 Sinai Peninsula killing and injuring a number of tourists.

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