Share manthan tip poll july 2010 english

Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll
July 2010
www.sharemanthan.in

Objectives of the Poll
Methodology of the Poll
The Poll was conducted among the top investment professionals of the Indian stock markets
The participation was based on invitation
There was no random selection to chose the participants, but the invitations were sent to well-known experts who usually share their views with Share Manthan
We received total 27 responses till the time we started analysing the data
Responses received after the cut-off time were not included in the analysis of data, but there views have been incorporated in this presentation
To gauge the current mood of the Indian stock market
To have an idea of the future course of the Indian stock market
To assess the possible impact of the global events on the Indian stock markets
Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010
© www.sharemanthan.in
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Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in
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The Galaxy of Respondents
* In alphabetical order

4
Index

5
Executive Summary
Nifty Targets:
About two-third see Nifty going beyond 6000 by the end of current fiscal year. Out of these, 18.2% see it at 6500 or even higher by March 2011.
55.6% see Nifty target for end of CY2010 between 5500 and 5999
Majority (55.6%) see Nifty bottoming out between 4500-4999 in the second half of CY2010
About two-third see Nifty touching a top between 5500-5999
India Vs. Globe
Overwhelming 81% expects India’s GDP growth rate to be 8% or higher in 2010-11
Similarly, 80% respondents see India’s GDP growth rate at 8%-plus in 2011-12
Less confidence on global economy as only 18.5% see it improving further in 6-12 months
But majority (57.7%) see less likelihood of Double Dip in global economy
Most of the respondents (81%) expect India to outperform global markets

6
Nifty Targets
FY2010
CY2010

7
Nifty Top & Bottom
Top for CY2010
Bottom for CY2010

8
Nifty Targets
CY2010-endCYH2 bottomCY top FY2010-end
Nifty Targets

9
India’s GDP Growth Rate
FY2010-11
FY2011-12

10
Global Economic Outlook
Global economy expected to:
India Vs Global Markets (6-12 Months)
Double Dip in global economy:

11
High Hopes For Growth
FY2010-11FY2011-12
India’s Growth rate

12
Outperforming Sectors
for next 6 months

13
Underperforming Sectors
for next 6 months

14
Indian markets will move largely with global trends.
Situation looks stable. Oil decontrol is positive and markets hopes govt would not backtrack. Given the currency outlook, especially USD and Euro, we expect markets to witness good inflow from FIIs.
Sharmila Joshi, Emkay Global
Markets are very volatile and very opportunistic!
SubramanyamPisupati,
ITI Financial Services
SushilKedia, ATMA
sideways Range bound
Stable with upward bias..
It would be tough to maintain the upward momentum.
SaurabhMittal,
Swadeshi Credits
PrakashGaba,
Technical Analyst
NiteshChand,
Sykes & Ray Equities

15
Overall markets looks extremely positive, specially Indian Stocks, provided we don’t see any major negative event happening in rest of the world.
We expect markets to be volatile in a 6-9 month period as global noises would continue to impact markets. However, from a 2-5 year perspective, markets would be do extremely well given the kind of growth Indian equities would offer along with better macro-economic structure.
Ram M. Gupta, Unicon Financial
First a peak of 5470-5530 by 2nd week of July and then a big fall up to 3500-4000 by October 2010
ArunKejriwal, KRIS
PankajPandey,
ICICI Securities
Very very volatile and directly dependent on world markets.
Indian market will remain quite volatile in synergy with global markets.
SanjeevAgarwal,
Dynamix Research
R. K. Gupta,
Taurus Asset Management Co.

16
Cautiously optimistic. Global concerns remain with respect to recovery in US, growth in China, Eurozone issues, while domestic economy continue to be robust in the wake of good demand growth, good capital flows and likelihood of capex cycle turning. Few earnings upgrades expected and current valuations would restrict the funds flow to the market. Any global turbulance would impact India also maybe in smaller measure but sentimentally markets in India would also follow suit.
DevenChoksey,
K.R. Choksey Securities
Market is expected to operate under the influence of liquidity challenges posed by restructuring moves taken by governments of Euro Zone countries, China and USA. Intermittent liquidity jerks would keep markets range bound between 5155-5450 in short term. Once this range id broken, it will have 5% movement in the direction of it broke out. We at KRChoksey believe in buying on lows and selling on rise to earn the required rate of return from equity in CFY 10-11.
Ashok K. Aggarwal,
Escorts Securities

17
The Nifty is in a 600 point upward trend. Thus on the upside, if we break above 5515, then it will be a major break out move. However, if we break below 4900, then we will fall sharply to 4300.
Overall positive
on the market. Sensex target of 30000 in 2014
GulTeckchandani,
Investment Advisor
Anil Manghnani, Modern Shares
Market will remain range bound, not very bullish,
but global demand will push Indian markets
We are very bearish on Indian and global stock markets. The global debt bubble, which had caused the market crash of 2007-09 has only got worse in last 1 year. We expect a structural deleveraging to happen, which will kill the corporate profitability globally. India will also fully participate in global carnage like it did in 2008.
Ajay Bagga,
Deutsche Bank
Positive in medium term. Overbought for short term.
Gopal K. Agarwal,
Voguestock
AmitGoel,
Pace Stock

18
Our Mkt will attract more and bigger inflows, leading to sustained rally barring some intermediate corrections. Overall positive.
Stable - Slow movement of Index to higher levels.
Time to identify neglected,
under-owned spaces.
N Jayakumar,
Prime Securities
D. D. Sharma, AnandRathi Fin.
Challenging,
difficult to make money.
SudipBandyopadhyay,
Convexity Solutions
Short term volatile. Medium to long term bullish
Indian economy is outperforming the world markets because of its less dependence on exports. If an investor is confident of double digit return, the capital flow shall be robust and this is what the Indian Stock Market shall provide. Despite global ups and downs, except the Act of God or some serious political turmoil or ridiculous policies, the Indian economy is poised for quantum jump till 2013.
P. K. Aggarwal,
Purpleline Investment
Advisors
JagdishThakkar,
Fortune Fiscal

19
We have become mirror of global economy and global outlook looks unstable . India will continue to attract positive outflow of funds. Markets look volatile for next 6 months before taking big leap towards 18000-20000 by end of current calendar year.
DharmeshPancholi,
Yashika
Markets look very positive and any correction due to any international news will provide very good investment opportunity. It may appear that India is not decoupled from the world markets, but at the end of the year, gap between the world markets and Indian markets will prove that we are decoupled.
AshishKukreja,
Phinnacle Wealth
Global markets will continue to have a hangover on the Indian Markets
K. K. Mital,
Globe Capital
AshuuKakkarr,
ashuukakkarr.com
Sideways with positive bias.
Buy on dips.
My view is cautious for this year 2011. We will do well domestically,
and globally we will be the best country to invest.
Salil Sharma,
Kapur Sharma & Co.

Share manthan tip poll july 2010 english

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