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Agile for project managers - a sailing analogy-UPDATE

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An analogy with sailing to explain agile project management

An analogy with sailing to explain agile project management

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  • 1. Agile for Project Managers A sailor’s look at Agile A presentation for 2012 GE Agile Conference Produced by Square Peg Consulting, LLC Orlando, Florida USA www.sqpegconsulting.com Photo: US NavyCopyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 1
  • 2. Agile and Sailing? Really? Photo: US Navy So, lets get started!Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 2
  • 3. Every sail (project) begins with a plan• Opportunity• Vision• Narrative• Constraints• Resources Chart: US NOAA Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 3
  • 4. Recruit a small team (crew) Redundancy among crew (team) Crew master (captain) takes the helm Instinctive action without direct commands Proven protocols and practices Photo: US Navy Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 4
  • 5. Commitment to the team Every sailor— individually and collectively—is committed Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 5
  • 6. Trust from shared experience Collaboration and trust— unconditionally Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 6
  • 7. One for all …. No individual success without collective success Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 7
  • 8. Define scope (narrative): sail for the marks Prospective, strategic, top down: Customer (sponsor) intones: ‘Make the marks’ Retrospective, tactical, bottom up: Team commits to Best value— the most—and the most important—that can be accomplished Gap? Photo US NOAA Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved Photo: US Navy 8
  • 9. Close the prospective—retrospective gap Take a risk! Crew master (captain) is the ultimate risk manager  Maintains a mental image of the risk register  Works the response plan real- time Photo US NOAA Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved Photo: US Navy 9
  • 10. From narrative to architecture Naval architect drives the strategic distribution of marks Captain is the architect of the tactics Photo US Naval Academy Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 10
  • 11. Embrace change! But… marks are updated, added new, or even deleted from time to time Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 11
  • 12. Lay-line is the plan Lay-line: most efficient course from “here” to “there” Sailing the ‘lay-line accumulates value Lay-line → ‘planned value’ PV Lay-line → backlog burn- Lay-line down plan Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 12
  • 13. Lay-line burn-down plan Planned Effort EarnedSegment Lay-line segment Efficiency value burned value (8 knts) Red day marker to Not (1 hour) blinking light started 8 NM Blinking light to green Not 16 NM day marker started ……. Not …to blinking red 10 NM startedLay-line Segment Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 13
  • 14. Navigation marks (Delivery milestones)Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 14
  • 15. Wind is a source of energy Motive energy for the boat (project) Source of risks and unknowns Represents (also) stakeholder biases, attitudes, and pressures Complex and sometimes unpredictable Photo US Naval Academy Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 15
  • 16. Environment: complex and adaptive Boat-sails-rigging: methodology and practices Wind: energy, risks Mark: scope and sponsor expectations Lay-line: back-log & plan to make the ‘mark’ Overall course: architectureComplex: Many structural parts with uncertaininteractions and behaviorsAdaptive: Changes over time to maintain fidelityof expectation Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 16
  • 17. From energy to value1. Maximize energy from favorable wind2. Apply wind energy to create velocity3. Measure velocity along the lay-line4. Accumulate value by distance sailed on the lay-line Photo US NOAA Accumulated valued (distance): Velocity along the lay-line x elapsed time Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 17
  • 18. From energy to value8 knots (velocity) x 1 hour (elapsed time)= 8 NM (distance) Photo US NOAA Accumulated valued (distance): Velocity along the lay-line x elapsed time Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 18
  • 19. Accumulate earned value EV strategy: Sail as close to the lay-line as possible Claim value earned when the mark is reached One segment EV from 1 to 2 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 19
  • 20. Tack to the mark Tactical response to circumstances Emergent with the wind Short performance increments (time box) Variance to the planned lay-lineTacking: sailing one direction, and then the other, across thelay-line Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 20
  • 21. Most pessimistic forecast Wind (risk) directly opposes the boat (project) Least energy available in the direction of the lay-line Strategy:  Find energy ‘off axis’ (evolve the plan)  Tack (incremental performance) across the lay-line Wind Photo US Naval Academy Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 21
  • 22. Pessimistic progress ❖Example: 2 units of input (increments) 1.4 units of earned value along the lay line Efficiency (Output / Input) = 70% Lay-line Wind (energy and risk) 1 Input 1 Output: increments projected along 1.4 the lay-lineCopyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 22
  • 23. Benchmarks forecast velocity Velocity creates throughput Throughput is "miles sailed" on the lay-line "Miles sailed" are like stories completed Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 23
  • 24. Benchmark units of performance Velocity = performance units per unit of time  Performance Unit (Story point) = Nautical mile (NM)  Unit of time (Time Box) = 1 hour  Example: 8 knots velocity = 8 NM per hourCopyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 24
  • 25. Lay-line burn-down EffortSegment Planned Earned Line segment (time) Efficiency Nr value value burned 8 knts 7 knts Red day marker to 1 1 hour 1.5 hr blinking light 8 NM 10.5 NM Blinking light to green In 2 16 NM day marker process ……. Not N …to blinking red 10 NM started Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 25
  • 26. Lay-line burn-down EffortSegment Planned Earned Line segment (time) Efficiency Nr value value burned 8 knts 7 knts Red day marker to 8/10.5 1 1 hour 1.5 hr 8 NM blinking light 76% 8 NM 10.5 NM Blinking light to green In 2 16 NM day marker process ……. Not N …to blinking red 10 NM started Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 26
  • 27. Cost estimating with benchmarks1. Backlog (performance units) NM2. Velocity benchmark (units / time) knots3. Unit cost benchmark (cost / time ) Inputs 𝐵𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑔Expected cost = ∗ Unit cost 𝑉𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 Calculation Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 27
  • 28. Cost estimating example 40𝑁𝑀Expected cost = ∗ $1000 per hour 8 𝑘𝑛𝑡Expected cost = 5 ℎ𝑜𝑢rs ∗ $1000 per hourExpected cost = $5000 Example 𝐵𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑔Expected cost = ∗ Unit cost 𝑉𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 Calculation Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 28
  • 29. Schedule (earned schedule) Earned schedule: effective time made along the lay-line ES = Total duration x efficiencyEfficiency:effective duration / total duration Photo: US NIST Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 29
  • 30. Earnable schedule example• Planning metrics – 40 NM lay-line – 8 Knot velocity benchmark – Earnable schedule: 40/8 = 5 hours Photo: J Goodpasture Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 30
  • 31. Agile schedule heuristicA schedule without slack is a hope, requiringprayer….But it’s unlikely to be an achievable schedule Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 31
  • 32. Pessimistic schedule example• Most pessimistic forecast: 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡 – 𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 = 𝐿𝑎𝑦 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑦 = 40 = 57NM 0.7 57 – 𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = = 7.2 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 8 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 32
  • 33. Slack schedule example• Required schedule slack:Pessimistic duration – Earnableschedule7.2 − 5 = 2.2 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 33
  • 34. Scale is manageable The fleet has sortied The fleet has sortied! Photo US NavyCopyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 34
  • 35. Scale is manageable Vision and strategic direction  Conveyed from the fleet captain Each boat is a self-directing team,  But learns from the performance of others Protocols observed  For communication, sequencing, and coordination Each boat maintains situational awareness Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 35
  • 36. Rolling wave planning Information relayed to others by boats on the leading edge of the fleet ( over the horizon‘) Far out lay-lines planned as approached Adjustments made for obstructions and wind shifts Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 36
  • 37. There’s a lot more to know….• Jim Highsmith: “Agile Project Management: Creating innovative products”• Dean Leffingwell: “Agile Software Requirements: Lean requirements practices for Teams, Programs, and the Enterprise”• Mike Cohn: “Agile Estimating and Planning”• Lisa Crispin and Janet Gregory: “Agile Testing: A practical guide for Testers and Agile Teams” Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 37
  • 38. Read more…Large scale projectsin large scaleorganizations Photo: J. Ross Publishing Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 38
  • 39. Learn more…PMI® eSeminarsWorldsm instructor• Agile Project Management• Advanced Risk Management and• Understanding Organizational Change 39 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved
  • 40. Stay in touchJohn C Goodpasture, PMPProgram manager, author, andinstructor info@sqpegconsulting.com johngoodpasture.com 40 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved
  • 41. All done and ready for questions!Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 41