Walnut Grove Community Cancer Concern Do rates of any of the childhood cancers suggest a clustering due to some (as yet unknown) factor?

Method Assessment Compare rates – Community vs BC Population Period 1998-2007 Rate Need data on # people & # cases for each year BC: Census data (# of people) BC Cancer Registry (# of cases) Community: Data not available Solution - Use larger administrative region where data available Langley Local Health Area (Youth Pop: ~ 18,000) Ratio Number cases (O) / expected based on BC rate (E)

Assessment

Compare rates – Community vs BC Population

Period 1998-2007

Rate Need data on # people & # cases for each year

BC: Census data (# of people)

BC Cancer Registry (# of cases)

Community: Data not available

Solution - Use larger administrative region where data available

Langley Local Health Area (Youth Pop: ~ 18,000)

Ratio Number cases (O) / expected based on BC rate (E)

Results (1998-2007) - All cancers E = 49.91 cases O = 51 cases Ratio = O/E = 1.02 Yearly data Lower rate 6 years out of 10 Large random variation NO EXCESS RISK

- All cancers

E = 49.91 cases

O = 51 cases

Ratio = O/E = 1.02

Yearly data

Lower rate 6 years out of 10

Large random variation

NO EXCESS RISK

Results: Subset analyses Gender Males: O = 36 E = 27.28 Ratio = 1.32 Lower rate 4 years out of 10 Females: O = 15 E = 22.64 Ratio = 0.66 Lower rate 8 years out of 10 Site Specific Leuk: O = 13 E = 13.24 Ratio = 0.98 Lower rate 5 years out of 10 Lymp: O = 7 E = 7.62 Ratio = 0.92 Lower rate 5 years out of 10 Brain: O = 4 E = 9.69 Ratio = 0.41 Lower rate 8 years out of 10 Others: O = 27 E = 19.35 Ratio = 1.40 Lower rate 6 years out of 10 Changes within normal range of random variation CONCLUSION: Essentially no evidence to suggest a cluster of any cancer which might be due to an unknown exposure.

Gender

Males: O = 36 E = 27.28 Ratio = 1.32 Lower rate 4 years out of 10

Females: O = 15 E = 22.64 Ratio = 0.66 Lower rate 8 years out of 10

Site Specific

Leuk: O = 13 E = 13.24 Ratio = 0.98 Lower rate 5 years out of 10

Lymp: O = 7 E = 7.62 Ratio = 0.92 Lower rate 5 years out of 10

Brain: O = 4 E = 9.69 Ratio = 0.41 Lower rate 8 years out of 10

Others: O = 27 E = 19.35 Ratio = 1.40 Lower rate 6 years out of 10

Changes within normal range of random variation

CONCLUSION: Essentially no evidence to suggest a cluster of any cancer which

might be due to an unknown exposure.