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Forecasting Presentation
 

Forecasting Presentation

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Forecast Method used in Private Label Supplement Industry.

Forecast Method used in Private Label Supplement Industry.

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    Forecasting Presentation Forecasting Presentation Presentation Transcript

    • Forecasting Presentation
    • ORGANIZATION Account Forecaster Account Forecaster Account Forecaster
      • Forecasting responsibility assigned by brand / customer; each forecaster managing multiple accounts.
      • Collectively team forecasts about 900 SKUs
      • Forecasting is a team effort: Account Forecaster, Account Marketing, Sales, Customer Service, VMI Planner (where applicable) all have input in the final CONSENSUS FORECAST.
      • Weekly/Bi-weekly/Monthly/Quarterly meetings review each account. Input from this review process is incorporated into SKU Level forecast.
      Forecasting Manager
      • Weekly Historical Data
        • Shipment History
        • Customer Order History
        • POS / Warehouse Withdrawals (From Customer DC to Stores)
      • We also receive promotional calendars and information on many upcoming events.
      • Customer’s Forecast via or EDI 830’s.
      • Weekly S&OP Meetings help track turns and future promotions.
      FORECASTING PROCESS I. Forecasting Database:
    • FORECASTING PROCESS III. Forecasting Methodology:
      • Shipment History (Turn business and Promotions combined) is used to generate a statistical Turn Business Forecast
      • Promotional Business is entered as “Production Orders” into the AS400 and loaded in Demand Planner.
      • We “fine-tune” turn forecasts to accommodate for (1) Production Orders, (2) Customer Inventory Levels, (3) Seasonality.
    • DEMAND PLANNER
      • NON POS ACCOUNT
      • POS ACCOUNT
      FORECASTING PROCESS II. Forecasting Tool:
    • DEMAND PLANNER
      • MULTIPLE VIEWS:
      • Standard Product
      • Brand
      • Master List
      • Bulk
      FORECASTING PROCESS II. Forecasting Tool:
    •  
      • We track our Forecast Accuracy by Month, by Customer, by SKU – 30 days ahead.
      Forecast Accuracy Report
      • In addition, we also track Forecast Accuracy by BULK Forecasts – 90 days ahead.
      BULK Forecast Accuracy Report
      • Delivery Performance
        • Bulk Availability
        • QA Rejects
        • Supplier Delays
      • Promotional Customer Orders not clearly defined
        • Timing (Dates, Duration)
        • Quantity (Depth or Type of promotion)
      • New Products
        • Availability (Timing)
        • Pipeline Quantity
        • Ramp up
        • Cannibalization
      • Make to Order Accounts
      • Communication
      CHALLENGES