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Forecasting Presentation
ORGANIZATION Account Forecaster Account Forecaster Account Forecaster <ul><li>Forecasting responsibility assigned by brand...
<ul><li>Weekly  Historical Data  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shipment History </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer Order History ...
FORECASTING PROCESS III.  Forecasting Methodology: <ul><li>Shipment History (Turn business  and  Promotions combined) is u...
DEMAND PLANNER  <ul><li>NON POS ACCOUNT </li></ul><ul><li>POS ACCOUNT </li></ul>FORECASTING PROCESS II.  Forecasting Tool:
DEMAND PLANNER <ul><li>MULTIPLE VIEWS: </li></ul><ul><li>Standard Product </li></ul><ul><li>Brand </li></ul><ul><li>Master...
 
<ul><li>We track our Forecast Accuracy by Month, by Customer, by SKU – 30 days ahead. </li></ul>Forecast Accuracy Report
<ul><li>In addition, we also track Forecast Accuracy by BULK Forecasts – 90 days ahead. </li></ul>BULK Forecast Accuracy R...
<ul><li>Delivery Performance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bulk Availability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>QA Rejects </li></ul></ul>...
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Forecasting Presentation

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Forecast Method used in Private Label Supplement Industry.

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Transcript of "Forecasting Presentation"

  1. 1. Forecasting Presentation
  2. 2. ORGANIZATION Account Forecaster Account Forecaster Account Forecaster <ul><li>Forecasting responsibility assigned by brand / customer; each forecaster managing multiple accounts. </li></ul><ul><li>Collectively team forecasts about 900 SKUs </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting is a team effort: Account Forecaster, Account Marketing, Sales, Customer Service, VMI Planner (where applicable) all have input in the final CONSENSUS FORECAST. </li></ul><ul><li>Weekly/Bi-weekly/Monthly/Quarterly meetings review each account. Input from this review process is incorporated into SKU Level forecast. </li></ul>Forecasting Manager
  3. 3. <ul><li>Weekly Historical Data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shipment History </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer Order History </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>POS / Warehouse Withdrawals (From Customer DC to Stores) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We also receive promotional calendars and information on many upcoming events. </li></ul><ul><li>Customer’s Forecast via or EDI 830’s. </li></ul><ul><li>Weekly S&OP Meetings help track turns and future promotions. </li></ul>FORECASTING PROCESS I. Forecasting Database:
  4. 4. FORECASTING PROCESS III. Forecasting Methodology: <ul><li>Shipment History (Turn business and Promotions combined) is used to generate a statistical Turn Business Forecast </li></ul><ul><li>Promotional Business is entered as “Production Orders” into the AS400 and loaded in Demand Planner. </li></ul><ul><li>We “fine-tune” turn forecasts to accommodate for (1) Production Orders, (2) Customer Inventory Levels, (3) Seasonality. </li></ul>
  5. 5. DEMAND PLANNER <ul><li>NON POS ACCOUNT </li></ul><ul><li>POS ACCOUNT </li></ul>FORECASTING PROCESS II. Forecasting Tool:
  6. 6. DEMAND PLANNER <ul><li>MULTIPLE VIEWS: </li></ul><ul><li>Standard Product </li></ul><ul><li>Brand </li></ul><ul><li>Master List </li></ul><ul><li>Bulk </li></ul>FORECASTING PROCESS II. Forecasting Tool:
  7. 8. <ul><li>We track our Forecast Accuracy by Month, by Customer, by SKU – 30 days ahead. </li></ul>Forecast Accuracy Report
  8. 9. <ul><li>In addition, we also track Forecast Accuracy by BULK Forecasts – 90 days ahead. </li></ul>BULK Forecast Accuracy Report
  9. 10. <ul><li>Delivery Performance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bulk Availability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>QA Rejects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Supplier Delays </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Promotional Customer Orders not clearly defined </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Timing (Dates, Duration) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantity (Depth or Type of promotion) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New Products </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Availability (Timing) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pipeline Quantity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ramp up </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cannibalization </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Make to Order Accounts </li></ul><ul><li>Communication </li></ul>CHALLENGES
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