Womens Group Afghanistan–Pakistan War


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Womens Group Afghanistan–Pakistan War

  1. 1. Afghanistan – Pakistan War It’s significance
  3. 3. Our questions <ul><li>What is the war all about in the local context? </li></ul><ul><li>Why should we care? Is it worth American lives? </li></ul>
  4. 4. Fundamental questions <ul><li>What’s at stake in the war with the Taliban / Al Qaeda? </li></ul><ul><li>Why should we put our young people there? </li></ul>
  5. 10. Below Shibar Pass
  6. 11. Bottom of Shibar Pass
  7. 12. Above the Shibar Pass
  8. 14. Village in Bamian ( Qala-e-Sabzi).
  9. 15. Historical Background <ul><li>1993 – 1973 Zaher Shah </li></ul><ul><li>1973 – 1978 Da’ud Khan </li></ul><ul><li>1978 – 1992 Afghan Communists </li></ul><ul><li>1979 [Dec 25] Soviet Union invades </li></ul>
  10. 16. Mujahedin – Soviet War 1980 – 1989 <ul><li>“ Mujahedin” form [1978-1980] </li></ul><ul><li>American and Saudi support </li></ul><ul><li>Pakistan’s function as conduit of American and Saudi support </li></ul><ul><li>The seven “organizations” [“Parties”] </li></ul>
  11. 17. Pakistan’s great idea [with CIA approval] <ul><li>Invite other zealous Muslims to join the holy war </li></ul><ul><li>The “Arab Afghans” [from Arab world, Chechnya, Bosnia, Uzbekistan, Philippines, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Osama Bin Laden </li></ul>
  12. 18. The final throes of the war and of the Soviet Union <ul><li>1989 Soviets withdraw from Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><li>1991 December, Soviet Union vanishes </li></ul><ul><li>“ Arab Afghans” rejoice, believe they defeated the second greatest power on earth, begin to think about attacking the U.S. </li></ul>
  13. 19. Mujahedin – Afghan Communist War [1989- 1992] <ul><li>1989- 1992 [spring] Kabul regime hold’s out against the Mujahedin </li></ul><ul><li>1992 Collapse of the Kabul Communist regime [After Soviet collapse in December, 1991] </li></ul>
  14. 20. Mujahedin Internecine War 1992-1996 <ul><li>1992 Spring Mas’ud’s army [Tajiks] takes over Kabul </li></ul><ul><li>1992 Spring-Summer the Hazaras demand a better place in government </li></ul>
  15. 21. <ul><li>Fighting among the Mujahedin in several places, especially Kabul </li></ul><ul><li>Breakdown of social order: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fighting in Kabul wrecks the city </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mujahedin leaders take over the provincial areas > “Warlords” </li></ul></ul>
  16. 22. Rise of the Taliban <ul><li>1994 In Kandahar, Mullah Muhammad Omar and his students [“taliban”] to attack an abusive warlord </li></ul><ul><li>1994-1995 Young Pashtun men from many places rally to the “Taliban,” many of them from Pakistan </li></ul>
  17. 23. <ul><li>1994 - 1995 Many other groups join them: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Young men from Pakistani Islamic schools [taught by Saudi teachers] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pakistan military appropriates them </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Pakistan shipping industry provides money and support </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Benazir Bhutto opens the whole institutional system of Pakistan to them. </li></ul></ul>
  18. 24. Taliban advances <ul><li>Taliban arise as a Pashtun coalition [Afghan and Pakistani, supported by others], vs non-Pashtuns </li></ul><ul><li>Taliban easily take Herat and move north; </li></ul><ul><li>They are opposed by a new coalition of warlords, the “Northern Alliance” </li></ul>
  19. 25. Critical events of 1996 <ul><li>1996 Taliban take Kabul [with the help of Pakistani military] </li></ul><ul><li>1996 [late summer] Osama Bin Laden arrives with two planeloads of seasoned and devoted followers </li></ul>
  20. 26. Osama Bin Laden declares war <ul><li>1996 August, Osama issues a fatwa against the US </li></ul><ul><li>1998 spring, Osama’s group declares war against the United States: </li></ul><ul><li>“ to kill the Americans and their allies – civilian and military – is an individual duty of every Muslim…” </li></ul>
  21. 27. <ul><li>1998 August, simultaneous attacks on US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania </li></ul><ul><li>2000 Oct 12, Attack on the USS Cole </li></ul>
  22. 28. September 11, 2001 and its immediate implications for Afghanistan <ul><li>The American response began Oct 7 </li></ul><ul><li>Taliban are crushed and flee into Pakistan </li></ul><ul><li>Pakistan gets permission to extract its troops out of the war [!] </li></ul><ul><li>Osama Bin Laden and his men flee into Pakistan </li></ul>
  23. 29. The American distraction <ul><li>American administration turns its attention to Iraq [In 2002 pulls its key military “assets” out of Afghanistan to prepare for war in Iraq] </li></ul><ul><li>2003 American troops race into Iraq </li></ul><ul><li>2003 + Taliban begin reconstituting themselves in Pakistan </li></ul>
  24. 30. Pakistan’s Problems: 1. Tribal Areas <ul><li>Tribal areas are only loosely controlled </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Are historically autonomous zone along the northwest frontier of the country; the old northwest frontier of India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Physically rugged terrain </li></ul></ul>
  25. 31. Our questions <ul><li>What is the war all about in the local context? </li></ul><ul><li>Why should we care? Is it worth American lives? </li></ul>
  26. 33. Modern Tangi Gharu Gorge
  27. 34. Khan Shahur Pass in Waziristan
  28. 35. The prince pointed out plaques on the mountainside identifying many of the British regiments including the Khyber Rifles, that served in the area . He said they were a memorial to the twelve-hundred- ninety-six British solders who were massacred by Pathan tribesmen in 1847.
  29. 37. Pakistan’s problems 2. India <ul><li>The real war to the Pakistan military is with India </li></ul><ul><li>The quarrel over Kashmir </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pakistan claims it according to the rule that its population is largely Muslim </li></ul></ul>
  30. 38. <ul><li>Pakistan’s strategy: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To cultivate Islamists who will fight for Kashmir </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pakistan creates and nourishes several extreme Islamist organizations </li></ul></ul>
  31. 39. Pakistan’s Problems 3. Need for Energy <ul><li>Turkmenistan’s gas reserves </li></ul><ul><li>Plans for a pipeline through Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><li>Iran’s competing plans </li></ul><ul><li>Two key port cities: Which will it be? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gwadar in Pakistan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chaha Bahar in Iran </li></ul></ul>
  32. 40. TAP Pipeline Project
  33. 41. The importance of the Taliban for Pakistan <ul><li>Pakistan military regarded the Taliban as the most promising militia in Afghanistan. </li></ul><ul><li>So in 1994-1995 Pakistanis engaged with them very early. </li></ul>
  34. 42. <ul><li>Also, the Taliban are essentially Pashtuns, whom the Pakistanis believe they understand since about half of all Pashtuns live in Pakistan and many of the Pakistan military are Pashtuns </li></ul>
  35. 43. Current Profile of the Taliban <ul><li>A disparate organization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mullah Muhammad Omar’s group </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Young Pashtuns from Tribal Areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Foreigners: from Chechnya, Arab world, Bosnia, Philippines </li></ul></ul>
  36. 44. <ul><li>The evident split over agendas: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Afghan Taliban” [vs Kabul] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Pakistani Taliban” [vs Islamabad] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The emerging profile of Pakistan’s radicalized young men </li></ul></ul>
  37. 45. <ul><li>Al Qaeda </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Leadership: Osama and Ayman Zawahiri </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>OBL’s statement of fealty to Mullah M. Omar [Taliban] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-local groups: from Arab world, Chechnya, Uzbekistan, Xingjian, Philippines </li></ul></ul>
  38. 46. Current Pakistan view <ul><li>Pakistan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need for Islamist cadres for the war on India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regards Afghanistan is under influence of India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Internally conflicted over many unresolved issues in its structure: </li></ul></ul>
  39. 47. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE CONFLICT <ul><li>The Gulf </li></ul><ul><li>The Caucasus and Russia </li></ul><ul><li>Central Asia </li></ul><ul><li>China </li></ul><ul><li>The Indian Ocean </li></ul>
  40. 48. THE GULF
  41. 50. Arab world <ul><li>Except for Lebanon, none of the other Arab states are ruled by elected officials. </li></ul><ul><li>Most Arab leaders crave legitimacy but don’t have it. </li></ul><ul><li>Most seek legitimacy by claiming to lead the struggle against Israel. </li></ul>
  42. 51. <ul><li>Saudi Arabia: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Internal instability [w/in the Royal Family; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fear of internal pressures from its “religious right” = strict Islamism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fear of Iran </li></ul></ul>
  43. 52. <ul><li>Iran: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>huge supplies of oil and gas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Threat of nuclear power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evident unpopularity of current administration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nuclear power as means of attracting popular support </li></ul></ul>
  45. 54. <ul><li>Caspian area </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Caucasus as strategic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Oil </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pipelines </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Huge oil and gas reserves </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Struggle over pipelines </li></ul></ul></ul>
  46. 56. RUSSIA
  47. 57. <ul><li>Russia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Oil and gas resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategic location </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Conduit of gas, oil from Central Asian states </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Intermediate position between Europe and China </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A dangerous problem: population </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The advance of the Chinese </li></ul></ul></ul>
  48. 58. Russia <ul><li>Map of oil and gas pipeline in former soviet union, from loose handout </li></ul>
  49. 59. CENTRAL ASIA
  50. 62. CHINA
  51. 63. <ul><li>China </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Thirst for energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pipelines into Central Asia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategic site on the Indian Ocean: Gwadar Pakistan </li></ul></ul>
  53. 66. <ul><li>Indian Ocean </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Vulnerability of the Gulf </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategic ports in Iran and Pakistan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Amerian presence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Somalian Pirates </li></ul></ul>
  54. 67. TAP Pipeline Project
  55. 68. TAP-I, IPI & QP-I Pipeline Routes
  56. 69. The Wider Setting of the Afghanistan / Pakistan War <ul><li>The demand for Central Asian resources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>India’s need for energy [linking up with Iran] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pakistan’s need for energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chinese need for energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chinese need for other minerals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Chinese purchase of copper rights </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Chinese bids on iron ore rights </li></ul></ul></ul>
  57. 70. <ul><li>The pipeline diplomatic struggles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pipelines from Turkmenistan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ocean ports on the Indian Ocean [Gwadar vs Chah Bahar] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Pushtun ethnic issues in Afghanistan / Pakistan: How shall they integrate? </li></ul>
  58. 71. <ul><li>Al Qaeda: How to contain this movement? </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear powers in South Asia: India, Pakistan </li></ul>