Final Vw08 Tutorial

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Tutorial given at BERR, July 22, 2008.

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  • Final Vw08 Tutorial

    1. 1. July 2008 Jessica Mulligan Virtual Worlds A Brief Tutorial Presenter: Jessica Mulligan [email_address] [email_address]
    2. 2. TODAY’S AGENDA <ul><li>Definitions </li></ul><ul><li>Some History </li></ul><ul><li>Numbers and Trends </li></ul><ul><li>Q&A </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    3. 3. WHO AM I? <ul><li>EXPERIENCE: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>22 years in Online Entertainment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>50+ online products, 12+ MMOs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CURRENT POSITION: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>COO, ImaginVenture SA </li></ul></ul><ul><li>AUTHOR and COLUMNIST </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Developing Online Games: An Insider’s Guide co-authored w ith Bridgette Patrovsky </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A Royal PITA </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    4. 4. Definitions <ul><li>Virtual World (VW) </li></ul><ul><li>A computer-based simulated environment intended for its users to inhabit and interact via avatars. </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    5. 5. Second Life July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    6. 6. Definitions <ul><li>VWs normally have the following: </li></ul><ul><li>Persistent Environment: The terrain and objects are the same for all viewers. </li></ul><ul><li>Persistent Effects: When one person changes something, others perceive the change. </li></ul><ul><li>Persistent Avatars: Avatars can have their data changed and reflected throughout the world. Example: Inventory items, skills, attributes. </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    7. 7. Definitions <ul><li>Types of VWs </li></ul><ul><li>Social World: The main purpose is the social interaction of the inhabitants. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EXAMPLE: Habbo Hotel, Second Life, Club Penguin </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Game World: The main purpose is to experience and advance within the context of the game rules. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EXAMPLES: Runescape, World of Warcraft </li></ul></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    8. 8. Definitions <ul><li>Types of VWs </li></ul><ul><li>Workspace World: Used for internal corporate, government or NGO communications, meetings and collaboration. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EXAMPLE: Sun’s MPK20, IBM’s Bluegrass Project </li></ul></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    9. 9. Definitions <ul><li>The Park Analogy </li></ul><ul><li>Social World: The Neighborhood Park </li></ul><ul><li>Game World: A Theme Park </li></ul><ul><li>Workspace World: An Industrial Park </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    10. 10. Definitions <ul><li>AVATAR: The representation of the players in the virtual world. </li></ul><ul><li>MMOG: Massively-Multiplayer Online Game </li></ul><ul><li>MMORPG: Massively-Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    11. 11. <ul><li>Some History </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    12. 12. Generation I: 1969-1978 <ul><li>Connecting more than 2 people to play simultaneously </li></ul><ul><li>Proprietary networks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PLATO </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>NovaStar </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mainframes used to play simple text games </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Original Empire </li></ul></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    13. 13. 1978: The Universe Changes <ul><li>Professor Roy Trubshaw at Essex University asks his students a question: </li></ul><ul><li>“ Can we use UNIX to create many-user programs?” </li></ul><ul><li>The answer: </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    14. 14. Generation II: 1978 to 1995 <ul><li>The Multi-User Dimension, a.k.a. </li></ul><ul><li>MUD I </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    15. 15. Generation II: 1978 to 1995 <ul><li>The Trubshaw/Bartle text MUD kicked off the online VW revolution </li></ul><ul><li>First game world to allow more than 100 simultaneous players </li></ul><ul><li>The source was distributed to other schools and, eventually, was used to build Internet MUDs </li></ul><ul><li>Trained a generation of online designers </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    16. 16. Generation II <ul><li>Over 20 Major VWs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1978: MUD I </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1982: MegaWars I </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1984: Islands of Kesmai </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1986: Air Warrior </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1986: Habitat </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1991: AD&D NeverWinter Nights (AOL) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1993: Multiplayer BattleTech </li></ul></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan Air Warrior by Kesmai, 1987 The Realm by Sierra Online, 1995 Multiplayer BattleTech, 1992 AD&D: NWN on AOL, 1991
    17. 17. Generation III: 1996-Present <ul><li>The Internet & flat-rate fees take over. </li></ul><ul><li>Meridian 59 becomes 1st Internet-capable VW at a flat-rate, kicking off this generation. </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan Ultima Online by EA, 1997 Meridian 59 by 3DO, 1996
    18. 18. Generation III: 1996-Present <ul><li>Online in Asia is BIG by 2001 </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan <ul><li>60 million players! </li></ul>CHINA: Fantasy Westward Journey by Netease, 2004 1 million simultaneous players! KOREA: Lineage by NCsoft, 1999
    19. 19. Generation III <ul><li>Over 100 VWs launched so far </li></ul><ul><li>1996: M59, AD&D Dark Sun </li></ul><ul><li>1997: Ultima Online </li></ul><ul><li>1999: EverQuest, Runescape </li></ul><ul><li>2000: Habbo Hotel </li></ul><ul><li>2003: Second Life, There.com </li></ul><ul><li>2004: World of Warcraft </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan Habbo Hotel, 2001 World of Warcraft by Blizzard, 2004 Runescape, 1999
    20. 20. <ul><li>Numbers </li></ul><ul><li>And </li></ul><ul><li>Trends </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    21. 21. The Current VW User July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    22. 22. The VW User <ul><li>Hard Core : No time or price sensitivity </li></ul><ul><li>Moderate : No price sensitivity, lots of time sensitivity </li></ul><ul><li>Casual : Both price and time sensitive </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    23. 23. The VW User July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    24. 24. The VW User <ul><li>Movement down the pyramid is easy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Hard Core player will try all types of games </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Moderate gamer wants to find a good MMO, but is comfortable with Casual games </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Movement up the pyramid is hard </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Casual player is price and time sensitive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Moderate player is time sensitive </li></ul></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    25. 25. Markets <ul><li>Kids (Age 5-17): A combination of Social and Game Worlds </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Habbo Hotel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Club Penguin </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Runescape </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Adults (Age 18 to 42): Mainly Game Worlds </li></ul><ul><ul><li>World of Warcraft </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eve Online </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Age of Conan </li></ul></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    26. 26. Markets <ul><li>Workplace: 3 rd Parties building corporate, government and NGO VW spaces </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rivers Run Red </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Millions of Us </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Research and Education: The short end of the stick </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Few of them </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Needs to be more support here </li></ul></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    27. 27. Virtual Worlds Today <ul><ul><li>WoW, Blizzard/US – 10.5m subscribers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Habbo Hotel, Sulake/Finland – 9.5 million Unique/Active </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Runescape by Jagex/UK – 6m Active </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Club Penguin, Disney – 1m active </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Age of Conan, Funcom/Norway – 700k subscribers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Second Life, Linden/US – 500k+/- active </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EverQuest II, Sony/US – 400k subscribers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eve Online, CCP/Iceland – 250k subscribers </li></ul></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    28. 28. Virtual Worlds Today July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    29. 29. Virtual Worlds Today July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    30. 30. Behavior July 2008 Jessica Mulligan Complex Simple Hardcore Casual
    31. 31. Club Penguin July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    32. 32. Second Life July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    33. 33. There.com July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    34. 34. Habbo Hotel July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    35. 35. World of Warcraft July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    36. 36. Business Models <ul><li>Monthly Subscriptions </li></ul><ul><li>Free-to-Play (FTP) with Adverts/Upgrade to Monthly Subsc. </li></ul><ul><li>FTP w/adverts and Virtual Item Sales </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    37. 37. The Trends <ul><li>Revenue continues to be from Game Worlds </li></ul><ul><li>More movement to free-to-play </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Supported by adverts, virtual item sales and an up-sell to premium status </li></ul></ul><ul><li>More Browser-based products </li></ul><ul><li>Social Worlds at critical growth stage </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Millions use them </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The revenue model is still fragile </li></ul></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    38. 38. Which Governments are Investing in VWs? <ul><li>China: $2 billion USD commitment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Equivalent to $14B USD for local COL </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Universities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Private Companies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Government R&D Centers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>South Korea: About $1B USD so far </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Subsidies for VW developers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tax Breaks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Middleware Initiative </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Paid to bring fiber to 70%+ of homes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Canada </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Provinces setting good tax incentives </li></ul></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    39. 39. Summary <ul><li>Virtual Worlds are mainly Social Worlds, Game Worlds and Workspace Worlds. </li></ul><ul><li>Game Worlds are the revenue leaders today </li></ul><ul><li>Social Worlds are potentially the revenue leader in the future </li></ul><ul><li>The business model is trending to Free To Play/Use </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    40. 40. Summary <ul><li>Free To Play/Use is supported by various revenue, including Adverts, Virtual Item Sales and up-sells to subscriptions </li></ul><ul><li>The West is not investing adequately in Education and R&D </li></ul><ul><li>China and Korea want to own VWs, so are investing billions in education and R&D </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan
    41. 41. <ul><li>Thank you for listening! </li></ul><ul><li>Question and Answer </li></ul><ul><li>Period </li></ul>July 2008 Jessica Mulligan

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