Visions of the Gamepocalypse

          Jesse Schell
Games
Real Life
+10!
+20!
     +20!
+10!

 +10!

+5!
+45!   +500!
+200!


        +50!
+50!
+30!          +100!
+10! +10! +10!   +10!   +10!




        +500!
+100!

   +100!
+

+2700!
+2000!       +9000!
    +5000!
+10!
                       +30!
+5!
 +100!                +5!
     +30!   +1000!
 +30!                  +50!
   +200     ...
Orwellian   Huxleyan
?
Games provide:
•   Clear Feedback
•   A Sense of Progress
•   The Possibility of Success
•   Mental and Physical Exercise
...
Sharing




Authenticity

                                       Beauty
 Curiosity     Customizing
 Gap
Whole Life
                                Cloud
 Tracking
                               Gaming
                         ...
Extrinsic
Rewards


            Quantitative
                Design
                                      Transmedia
     ...
Extrinsic           Whole Life                                           Sharing
                                         ...
Nooks &
Crannies
+1,000,000!
Nooks &
Crannies
Micro-
           Transactions
Nooks &
Crannies
+   =
- 1500 FTE +   - $300M =


       WTF?!
Innovator’s Dilemma
Micro-
           Transactions
Nooks &
Crannies
Micro-
           Transactions
Nooks &
Crannies                   New
                          Sensors
Too many buttons?
How the casual player sees it
Casual Heaven
Micro-
           Transactions
Nooks &
Crannies                   New
                          Sensors
Micro-
           Transactions             New
Nooks &                             Screens
Crannies                   New
...
The Hype Curve
The Hype Curve




      Put Jokes Here
“Shampoorn”




+      =
Micro-
           Transactions             New
Nooks &                             Screens
Crannies                   New
...
REM-
                          tertainment


              Micro-
           Transactions                 New
Nooks &     ...
REM-
                          tertainment


              Micro-
           Transactions                 New
Nooks &     ...
REM-
                          tertainment
                                        Advergaming
              Micro-
      ...
TV Commercial Time




13%  36%
Are your friends on drugs?
                                              Report them NOW and get
                         ...
REM-
                          tertainment
                                        Advergaming
              Micro-
      ...
Beauty



                             REM-
                          tertainment
                                        ...
Have you noticed?
Beautiful!
Beauty



                             REM-
                          tertainment
                                        ...
Beauty


                                        TV
                             REM-
                          tertainmen...
1849
?
=
Beauty


                                        TV
                             REM-
                          tertainmen...
Beauty
            Customizing
                                        TV
                             REM-
              ...
Customized!
Beauty
            Customizing
                                        TV
                             REM-
              ...
Beauty
            Customizing
                                        TV
 Eye/Face                    REM-
 Tracking     ...
Recognizr
Recognizr
Recognizr
Joaquin Lopez
(knows your
brother)
                Friedrich Engels
                (Works with
                Susan Smit...
Francis George (41)
Bill Gemma (45)       Sylvia George (45)



Susan Franks (22)   Cynthia Apple (32)
                   ...
Effort: 5%          Effort: 85%
Engagement: 65%
                    Engagement: 45%
Fooling Around



  Effort: 65%
  Enga...
Beauty
            Customizing
                                        TV
 Eye/Face                    REM-
 Tracking     ...
Beauty
Curiosity               Customizing
Gap
                                                    TV
             Eye/Fac...
The curious will win
Beauty
Curiosity               Customizing
Gap
                                                    TV
             Eye/Fac...
Authenticity

                                                                          Beauty
 Curiosity                 ...
Authenticity

                                                                          Beauty
 Curiosity                 ...
Social
                                  Networking

Authenticity

                                                       ...
Social Networking
Social
                                  Networking

Authenticity

                                                       ...
Social           Transmedia
                                  Networking         Worlds

Authenticity

                   ...
Transmedia Worlds
360 Deals
Social           Transmedia
                                  Networking         Worlds

Authenticity

                   ...
Social           Transmedia
                                  Networking         Worlds             Speech
               ...
?
Social           Transmedia
                                  Networking         Worlds             Speech
               ...
Geo-
                                                                       Tracking
                                  Soc...
Mundanes

   vs.
Imagineers
Mundane   Imagineer
+   =
WoWoWW
Geo-
                                                                       Tracking
                                  Soc...
Sharing


                                                                       Geo-
                                    ...
Shared!
Sharing


                                                                       Geo-
                                    ...
Sharing
                                          Cloud
                                         Gaming
                  ...
?
=
Sharing
                                          Cloud
                                         Gaming
                  ...
Sharing
                                            Cloud
                                           Gaming
              ...
Sharing
                                            Cloud
                                           Gaming
              ...
Extrinsic                                                                Sharing
                                         ...
Christopher
                              Alexander’s
                              Fifteen Principles
1.   Levels of Scal...
Engaging
Effortless
Uncheatable
Not Embarrassing
Remember: Personal Trainers Work
Extrinsic                                                                Sharing
                                         ...
Extrinsic           Whole Life                                           Sharing
                                         ...
Persuaders     Fulfillers




  Artists    Humanitarians
Persuaders
Fulfillers
Artists
Humanitarians
Persuaders     Fulfillers




  Artists    Humanitarians
Whole Life
                 Tracking                                                Nooks & Crannies

Quantitative        ...
Whole Life
                 Tracking                                                Nooks & Crannies

Quantitative        ...
Thanks!
Email & Slides: jesseschell.com
    Twitter: @jesseschell
     Blog: gamepoc.com
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Visions of the gamepocalypse

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My SALT (Seminar About Long-term Thinking) for the Long Now Foundation from July 27, 2010. Audio can be found here: http://longnow.org/seminars/02010/jul/27/visions-gamepocalypse/

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  • 1984 was about enslavement by the government. Brave New world was about enslavement by entertainment, which is far more dangerous. Other people said, this won’t happen, it’s way too expensive.
  • And it won’t stop. The 21st century will be a constant battleground for our attention. Corporations will create games customized to fit each activity of our day, all day, every day.
  • We can’t drink, we can’t make out, all we can do is talk, point at media, and play games.
  • Did you rebel when TV commercial time grew from 13% to 36%? Did you rebel when logos showed up the corner of the TV, burning their brand into your brain every second that you watched? Did you rebel when Google started scanning every email you sent, to distract you with targeted ads?
  • Did you rebel when Shea Stadium turned into Citibank Stadium? If you did, it didn’t do any good! What makes you think this won’t happen with games?
  • We’re going to have some hard decisions to make.
  • We talk about “viral spread” of our games like that’s always a good thing. And it can be! We spread ideas we like for a small number of reasons. But, don’t forget, there are some viruses we don’t want! And once we get them, we take pains not to get them again! Social Networks are already turning into a kind of immune system, and people are building up natural immunodefensive reactions against bad viruses – which means, if you want to spread your game virally, it better be the GOOD kind of virus.
  • We talk about “viral spread” of our games like that’s always a good thing. And it can be! We spread ideas we like for a small number of reasons. But, don’t forget, there are some viruses we don’t want! And once we get them, we take pains not to get them again! Social Networks are already turning into a kind of immune system, and people are building up natural immunodefensive reactions against bad viruses – which means, if you want to spread your game virally, it better be the GOOD kind of virus.
  • So, who’s fighting this war? Well, I’ve thought about this a lot, and I think there are four different camps.
  • First, the persuaders. They only care about games for the money they make, no matter how crappy they are, or how ripped off the players feel. I’d name some names, but you know who you are. In fact, we all know who you are.
  • Second, the fulfillers. These are the developers whose every waking moment is about how they can surprise and delight their players, fulfilling their every wish and fantasy. Honestly, I think that’s most of us.
  • Third, the artists. They want to advance the medium for its own sake. They don’t mind if their games aren’t big sellers, as long as they are beautiful and revolutionary. The artists make games that confront what it means to be human.
  • And finally, the humanitarians. They want to use power of games to elevate our minds, bodies, and souls, to make us into better people.
  • Most of us have some sense of which side we are on. But, really, who is going to win? We all know the golden rule – the one with the gold makes the rules. So watch yourself. You might think you are on one side, when in reality you are just a puppet for somebody else.
  • Money is so powerful, the rest of us don’t even have a chance. Is it even possible for us to be more persuasive than the persuaders?
  • Now, I’ve said a war is coming, but that’s not true. The war is already here; you are fighting in it right now. Please, wake up, and figure out what side you are on. If you don’t, someone else will do it for you. Thank you.
  • Visions of the gamepocalypse

    1. 1. Visions of the Gamepocalypse Jesse Schell
    2. 2. Games Real Life
    3. 3. +10! +20! +20!
    4. 4. +10! +10! +5!
    5. 5. +45! +500!
    6. 6. +200! +50!
    7. 7. +50! +30! +100!
    8. 8. +10! +10! +10! +10! +10! +500!
    9. 9. +100! +100!
    10. 10. + +2700!
    11. 11. +2000! +9000! +5000!
    12. 12. +10! +30! +5! +100! +5! +30! +1000! +30! +50! +200 +30! +25! +75! +300!
    13. 13. Orwellian Huxleyan
    14. 14. ?
    15. 15. Games provide: • Clear Feedback • A Sense of Progress • The Possibility of Success • Mental and Physical Exercise • A Chance to Satisfy Your Curiosity • A Chance to Solve a Problem • A Feeling of Freedom
    16. 16. Sharing Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap
    17. 17. Whole Life Cloud Tracking Gaming Geo- Tracking Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Micro- Transactions New Screens New Sensors
    18. 18. Extrinsic Rewards Quantitative Design Transmedia Worlds Advergaming Nooks & Crannies
    19. 19. Extrinsic Whole Life Sharing Cloud Rewards Tracking Gaming Geo- Quantitative Tracking Design Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    20. 20. Nooks & Crannies
    21. 21. +1,000,000!
    22. 22. Nooks & Crannies
    23. 23. Micro- Transactions Nooks & Crannies
    24. 24. + =
    25. 25. - 1500 FTE + - $300M = WTF?!
    26. 26. Innovator’s Dilemma
    27. 27. Micro- Transactions Nooks & Crannies
    28. 28. Micro- Transactions Nooks & Crannies New Sensors
    29. 29. Too many buttons?
    30. 30. How the casual player sees it
    31. 31. Casual Heaven
    32. 32. Micro- Transactions Nooks & Crannies New Sensors
    33. 33. Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    34. 34. The Hype Curve
    35. 35. The Hype Curve Put Jokes Here
    36. 36. “Shampoorn” + =
    37. 37. Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    38. 38. REM- tertainment Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    39. 39. REM- tertainment Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    40. 40. REM- tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    41. 41. TV Commercial Time 13%  36%
    42. 42. Are your friends on drugs? Report them NOW and get 30,000 pieces of Silver! Join the US Army Reserve TODAY and get a World of Warcraft Battle Fortress worth One Million Gold! Buy 10 Cartons, Unlock a Bentley!
    43. 43. REM- tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    44. 44. Beauty REM- tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    45. 45. Have you noticed?
    46. 46. Beautiful!
    47. 47. Beauty REM- tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    48. 48. Beauty TV REM- tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    49. 49. 1849
    50. 50. ? =
    51. 51. Beauty TV REM- tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    52. 52. Beauty Customizing TV REM- tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    53. 53. Customized!
    54. 54. Beauty Customizing TV REM- tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    55. 55. Beauty Customizing TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    56. 56. Recognizr
    57. 57. Recognizr
    58. 58. Recognizr
    59. 59. Joaquin Lopez (knows your brother) Friedrich Engels (Works with Susan Smith)
    60. 60. Francis George (41) Bill Gemma (45) Sylvia George (45) Susan Franks (22) Cynthia Apple (32) Emily Apple (6)
    61. 61. Effort: 5% Effort: 85% Engagement: 65% Engagement: 45% Fooling Around Effort: 65% Engagement: 25%
    62. 62. Beauty Customizing TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    63. 63. Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    64. 64. The curious will win
    65. 65. Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    66. 66. Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    67. 67. Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    68. 68. Social Networking Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    69. 69. Social Networking
    70. 70. Social Networking Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    71. 71. Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    72. 72. Transmedia Worlds
    73. 73. 360 Deals
    74. 74. Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    75. 75. Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    76. 76. ?
    77. 77. Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    78. 78. Geo- Tracking Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    79. 79. Mundanes vs. Imagineers
    80. 80. Mundane Imagineer
    81. 81. + =
    82. 82. WoWoWW
    83. 83. Geo- Tracking Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    84. 84. Sharing Geo- Tracking Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    85. 85. Shared!
    86. 86. Sharing Geo- Tracking Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    87. 87. Sharing Cloud Gaming Geo- Tracking Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    88. 88. ? =
    89. 89. Sharing Cloud Gaming Geo- Tracking Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    90. 90. Sharing Cloud Gaming Geo- Quantitative Tracking Design Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    91. 91. Sharing Cloud Gaming Geo- Quantitative Tracking Design Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    92. 92. Extrinsic Sharing Cloud Rewards Gaming Geo- Quantitative Tracking Design Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    93. 93. Christopher Alexander’s Fifteen Principles 1. Levels of Scale 9. Contrast 2. Strong Centers 10. Gradients 3. Boundaries 11. Roughness 4. Alternating Repetition 12. Echoes 5. Positive Spaces 13. The Void 6. Good Shape 14. Simplicity and Inner Calm 7. Local Symmetries 15. Non-separateness 8. Deep Interlock and Ambiguity
    94. 94. Engaging
    95. 95. Effortless
    96. 96. Uncheatable
    97. 97. Not Embarrassing
    98. 98. Remember: Personal Trainers Work
    99. 99. Extrinsic Sharing Cloud Rewards Gaming Geo- Quantitative Tracking Design Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    100. 100. Extrinsic Whole Life Sharing Cloud Rewards Tracking Gaming Geo- Quantitative Tracking Design Social Transmedia Networking Worlds Speech Recognition Authenticity Beauty Curiosity Customizing Gap TV Eye/Face REM- Tracking tertainment Advergaming Micro- Transactions New Nooks & Screens Crannies New Sensors
    101. 101. Persuaders Fulfillers Artists Humanitarians
    102. 102. Persuaders
    103. 103. Fulfillers
    104. 104. Artists
    105. 105. Humanitarians
    106. 106. Persuaders Fulfillers Artists Humanitarians
    107. 107. Whole Life Tracking Nooks & Crannies Quantitative Speech Design Portable Recognition Screens Transmedia Worlds Sharing Cloud Geo- Gaming Tracking Beauty Customizing TV Extrinsic Authenticity Eye/Face Rewards Disposable Tracking Sensors Advergaming Retail Micro- Gaming Transactions Social Networking
    108. 108. Whole Life Tracking Nooks & Crannies Quantitative Speech Design Portable Recognition Screens Transmedia Worlds Sharing Cloud Geo- Gaming Tracking Beauty Customizing TV Extrinsic Authenticity Eye/Face Rewards Disposable Tracking Sensors Advergaming Retail Micro- Gaming Transactions Social Networking
    109. 109. Thanks! Email & Slides: jesseschell.com Twitter: @jesseschell Blog: gamepoc.com

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