… a longer look in the rear-view mirror
• agrarian revolution
– four crop rotation
• industrial revolution
– Joseph Jacquard’s Loom
• mass production
– division and specialisation of
labour
• “digital revolution”
– economic and societal
innovation: enabled by IT

seamless communication,
“classic edition”

ubiquitous computing
17 Billion Networked Devices by 2012 (IDC)
Appliances/Toys: 11,000M
Industrial/Automotive: 400M
Entertainment: 1,300M
Handhelds: 2,600M
Computers: 1,080M

networks everywhere
Government
Personal/Home Social
Networks
Networks Networks
HR
Business Customer
Relationship
Networks
Networks
Purchasing
Scientific
Value Chain
Networks
Networks
Fulfillment

Hyperconnectivity is happening
much faster than many expected …
Person to Person Person to Machine Machine to Machine
• eHealth: 1 million people • 98% of all CPUs today are
subscribe to LifeOnKey embedded (by 2010 – 14 billion
(online access to personal connected, embedded devices)
health information)
• Eye-Fi: camera uploads
• China: Is issuing >1B RFID- photos wirelessly
enabled citizen identification
cards
• Western Europe – 112 • Over next 5 years, 10 million sensors
mobile phones per 100 will be installed in homes to enable
people (Italy, 147 per 100) independent living for elderly and
•Emergence of disabled
•One Laptop wireless
Per Child (networked) OneTouch
Meter
glucometers
• Healthcare industry’s
• Amazon’s Kindle consumption of RFID tags &
launched Nov 07; sold services will increase from
out in 4 hrs $US90M to $US2.1B in next 8
years
6 (With thanks to Nortel)

the landline era
Mobile, VOI
P, Video, IM,
Blogs ….
1876 1970’-1990’s
2006
an
innovation
explosion

personal
transactional
informational
“Are social computing themes like user-
generated content and communication
fundamentally changing the rules of
business? We think they are—in a big way.”
Forrester Research

key enablers
COMMUNICATIONS-ENABLED
TRUE BROADBRAND APPLICATIONS
4G (WiMAX, LTE)
Unified
Communications
Carrier
Ethernet Real-Time
SOA/Web Services
40/100G
Optical Strategic Partners/
Ecosystem
Unwired Communications
Enterprise Integration
9
(With thanks to Nortel)

convergence ….
• … of networks,
protocols and interfaces
…
• … and multi-purpose
devices …

… and divergence
• … of devices and experiences

today’s seamless communications
• games console (local & online)
• video on demand
• DVD/CD player
• Media Centre extender
• ethernet/Internet enabled
• Instant Messaging
• Voice and video comms over IP
• camera
• email/Internet browsing
• GPS/maps
• MP3 player
• text messaging
• Camcorder
• voice recorder
• … oh, and a phone too!

… the Internet is just the start …
• disruption
– scale …?
– who knows, but consider this:
• Industrial Revolution:
– by its end, one worker could do
work that would have taken 200
people at its beginning
• UK coal industry:
– 1920: 950,000 miners
– 2005: just 9 collieries left … with
3,000 miners

mobile communiction
• mobility is becoming the modus
operandi – no longer the exception
• not just a technology issue:
– enables new ways of structuring and
running an organisation (… and society?)
– can lead to truly flexible working (but HR
and other issues need to be addressed
in tandem)
• the convergence that underpins
ubiquitous mobility is driving a
divergence of organisational models
• the mobile device often seen as the
focal point of convergence due to its
ubiquity and broad take-up

a disruptive, digital age
• connected
– connected systems (SOA)
– connected people (improved
collaboration)
– connected devices (keeping people
permanently in touch with their
information), mobility
• information driven
– increased use of information and
meta-data to automate more business
and IT processes
– improved capabilities to manage,
search and analyse vast quantities of
data from multiple sources
• experiences
– provision of client devices and
environments that make information
more accessible and compelling

another convergence?

... the future workstation?

surface computing
• display-centric • multi user
• direct Input • tangible objects
blending of physical and virtual interaction

Source: “Sketching
User Experiences”, Bill
Buxton

Nortel’s unified
communications vision
Identity
All Devices, Applications, Interfaces Context
Presence
Location
Policy
Services Environment
21

Cslate
Source:
Microsoft
Research

augmented bowl
Source:
Microsoft
Research

Sourced from: http://www.intersurgtech.com/media.html

“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be
those who cannot read and write, but those
who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn”
Rethinking the Future,
Alvin Toffler

the politics of magic
• for the last 40 years …
– technology has been a tool
– use of the tool was a choice
• the next 10 years
– technology becomes an essential utility, a policy lever
– what happens to choice now?
• will public policy and social acceptance (and
understanding) issues gate the realisation of
technology’s true potential?

identity, security, privacy …?
subscribes to
shops at
Vodaphone
(source: mobile phone) Morrisons
(source: loyalty card and
credit card)
overweight
(source: connected
bathroom scales)
alcoholic
(source: The Red Lion
EPOS)
iPod owner
(source: RFID tag
fashion victim
(source: street CCTV)

“… our external experience is never direct; nor do we
experience the signals in our nerves directly - we would
not know what to make of the streams of electrical
crackles that they carry. What we experience is a virtual-
reality rendering, conveniently generated for us by our
unconscious minds from sensory data plus complex inborn
and acquired theories (i.e. programs) about how to
interpret them ... all reasoning, all thinking and all
external experiences are forms of virtual reality.\"
(David Deutsch, “The Fabric of Reality”, 1998, pp. 120-121)

summary

... the best way to predict the future is to invent it yourself ...

acknowledgements
• Nortel:
– Kevin Webb
– Geoff Hall
– John Roese
• Microsoft Research ... and in particular:
– Bill Buxton
– Ken Wood
– Steve Hodges
– Antonio Criminisi
– Stephen Emmott
– http://research.microsoft.com
• the Institute of Creative Technologies (IOCT):
– Professor Andrew Hugill, Director
– http://www.ioct.dmu.ac.uk/

beyond the
Internet:
seamless global
communication
Jerry Fishenden
National Technology Officer,
Microsoft UK
blog http://ntouk.com
© 2008. All rights reserved.
This presentation is for informational purposes only.
NEITHER JERRY NOR MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IN THIS PRESENTATION – BUT HOPE YOU
ENJOYED IT ANYWAY