… a longer look in the rear-view mirror

             • agrarian revolution
                – four crop rotation
         ...
seamless communication,
    “classic edition”
ubiquitous computing
17 Billion Networked Devices by 2012 (IDC)


                        Appliances/Toys: 11,000M

      ...
networks everywhere

                     Government
    Personal/Home                 Social
                     Network...
Hyperconnectivity is happening
      much faster than many expected …
Person to Person                Person to Machine   ...
the landline era


                                            Mobile, VOI
                                            P, ...
personal

                 transactional




informational



                “Are social computing themes like user-
    ...
key enablers

                                  COMMUNICATIONS-ENABLED
TRUE BROADBRAND                              APPLIC...
convergence ….
     • … of networks,
       protocols and interfaces
       …
     • … and multi-purpose
       devices …
… and divergence
• … of devices and experiences
today’s seamless communications
       •   games console (local & online)
       •   video on demand
       •   DVD/CD pla...
… the Internet is just the start …

           • disruption
             – scale …?
             – who knows, but consider...
mobile communiction
       • mobility is becoming the modus
         operandi – no longer the exception
       • not just ...
a disruptive, digital age

              •   connected
                   – connected systems (SOA)
                   – c...
another convergence?
... the future workstation?
surface computing




  •   display-centric   •   multi user
  •   direct Input      •   tangible objects

blending of phy...
Source: “Sketching
User Experiences”, Bill
Buxton
Nortel’s unified
                    communications vision
                                                      Identity
...
Cslate




         Source:
         Microsoft
         Research
augmented bowl




                 Source:
                 Microsoft
                 Research
Sourced from: http://www.intersurgtech.com/media.html
“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be
those who cannot read and write, but those
  who cannot learn, unlearn, an...
the politics of magic
• for the last 40 years …
   – technology has been a tool
   – use of the tool was a choice
• the ne...
identity, security, privacy …?
             subscribes to
                                         shops at
              ...
“… our external experience is never direct; nor do we
  experience the signals in our nerves directly - we would
    not k...
summary
... the best way to predict the future is to invent it yourself ...
acknowledgements
    • Nortel:
        – Kevin Webb
        – Geoff Hall
        – John Roese
    • Microsoft Research ......
beyond the
                                                               Internet:
                                      ...
Beyond the Internet: Seamless Global Communication
Beyond the Internet: Seamless Global Communication
Beyond the Internet: Seamless Global Communication
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Beyond the Internet: Seamless Global Communication

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  • introduction
  • Beyond the Internet: Seamless Global Communication

    1. 1. … a longer look in the rear-view mirror • agrarian revolution – four crop rotation • industrial revolution – Joseph Jacquard’s Loom • mass production – division and specialisation of labour • “digital revolution” – economic and societal innovation: enabled by IT
    2. 2. seamless communication, “classic edition”
    3. 3. ubiquitous computing 17 Billion Networked Devices by 2012 (IDC) Appliances/Toys: 11,000M Industrial/Automotive: 400M Entertainment: 1,300M Handhelds: 2,600M Computers: 1,080M
    4. 4. networks everywhere Government Personal/Home Social Networks Networks Networks HR Business Customer Relationship Networks Networks Purchasing Scientific Value Chain Networks Networks Fulfillment
    5. 5. Hyperconnectivity is happening much faster than many expected … Person to Person Person to Machine Machine to Machine • eHealth: 1 million people • 98% of all CPUs today are subscribe to LifeOnKey embedded (by 2010 – 14 billion (online access to personal connected, embedded devices) health information) • Eye-Fi: camera uploads • China: Is issuing >1B RFID- photos wirelessly enabled citizen identification cards • Western Europe – 112 • Over next 5 years, 10 million sensors mobile phones per 100 will be installed in homes to enable people (Italy, 147 per 100) independent living for elderly and •Emergence of disabled •One Laptop wireless Per Child (networked) OneTouch Meter glucometers • Healthcare industry’s • Amazon’s Kindle consumption of RFID tags & launched Nov 07; sold services will increase from out in 4 hrs $US90M to $US2.1B in next 8 years 6 (With thanks to Nortel)
    6. 6. the landline era Mobile, VOI P, Video, IM, Blogs …. 1876 1970’-1990’s 2006 an innovation explosion
    7. 7. personal transactional informational “Are social computing themes like user- generated content and communication fundamentally changing the rules of business? We think they are—in a big way.” Forrester Research
    8. 8. key enablers COMMUNICATIONS-ENABLED TRUE BROADBRAND APPLICATIONS 4G (WiMAX, LTE) Unified Communications Carrier Ethernet Real-Time SOA/Web Services 40/100G Optical Strategic Partners/ Ecosystem Unwired Communications Enterprise Integration 9 (With thanks to Nortel)
    9. 9. convergence …. • … of networks, protocols and interfaces … • … and multi-purpose devices …
    10. 10. … and divergence • … of devices and experiences
    11. 11. today’s seamless communications • games console (local & online) • video on demand • DVD/CD player • Media Centre extender • ethernet/Internet enabled • Instant Messaging • Voice and video comms over IP • camera • email/Internet browsing • GPS/maps • MP3 player • text messaging • Camcorder • voice recorder • … oh, and a phone too!
    12. 12. … the Internet is just the start … • disruption – scale …? – who knows, but consider this: • Industrial Revolution: – by its end, one worker could do work that would have taken 200 people at its beginning • UK coal industry: – 1920: 950,000 miners – 2005: just 9 collieries left … with 3,000 miners
    13. 13. mobile communiction • mobility is becoming the modus operandi – no longer the exception • not just a technology issue: – enables new ways of structuring and running an organisation (… and society?) – can lead to truly flexible working (but HR and other issues need to be addressed in tandem) • the convergence that underpins ubiquitous mobility is driving a divergence of organisational models • the mobile device often seen as the focal point of convergence due to its ubiquity and broad take-up
    14. 14. a disruptive, digital age • connected – connected systems (SOA) – connected people (improved collaboration) – connected devices (keeping people permanently in touch with their information), mobility • information driven – increased use of information and meta-data to automate more business and IT processes – improved capabilities to manage, search and analyse vast quantities of data from multiple sources • experiences – provision of client devices and environments that make information more accessible and compelling
    15. 15. another convergence?
    16. 16. ... the future workstation?
    17. 17. surface computing • display-centric • multi user • direct Input • tangible objects blending of physical and virtual interaction
    18. 18. Source: “Sketching User Experiences”, Bill Buxton
    19. 19. Nortel’s unified communications vision Identity All Devices, Applications, Interfaces Context Presence Location Policy Services Environment 21
    20. 20. Cslate Source: Microsoft Research
    21. 21. augmented bowl Source: Microsoft Research
    22. 22. Sourced from: http://www.intersurgtech.com/media.html
    23. 23. “The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn” Rethinking the Future, Alvin Toffler
    24. 24. the politics of magic • for the last 40 years … – technology has been a tool – use of the tool was a choice • the next 10 years – technology becomes an essential utility, a policy lever – what happens to choice now? • will public policy and social acceptance (and understanding) issues gate the realisation of technology’s true potential?
    25. 25. identity, security, privacy …? subscribes to shops at Vodaphone (source: mobile phone) Morrisons (source: loyalty card and credit card) overweight (source: connected bathroom scales) alcoholic (source: The Red Lion EPOS) iPod owner (source: RFID tag fashion victim (source: street CCTV)
    26. 26. “… our external experience is never direct; nor do we experience the signals in our nerves directly - we would not know what to make of the streams of electrical crackles that they carry. What we experience is a virtual- reality rendering, conveniently generated for us by our unconscious minds from sensory data plus complex inborn and acquired theories (i.e. programs) about how to interpret them ... all reasoning, all thinking and all external experiences are forms of virtual reality.quot; (David Deutsch, “The Fabric of Reality”, 1998, pp. 120-121)
    27. 27. summary
    28. 28. ... the best way to predict the future is to invent it yourself ...
    29. 29. acknowledgements • Nortel: – Kevin Webb – Geoff Hall – John Roese • Microsoft Research ... and in particular: – Bill Buxton – Ken Wood – Steve Hodges – Antonio Criminisi – Stephen Emmott – http://research.microsoft.com • the Institute of Creative Technologies (IOCT): – Professor Andrew Hugill, Director – http://www.ioct.dmu.ac.uk/
    30. 30. beyond the Internet: seamless global communication Jerry Fishenden National Technology Officer, Microsoft UK blog http://ntouk.com © 2008. All rights reserved. This presentation is for informational purposes only. NEITHER JERRY NOR MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IN THIS PRESENTATION – BUT HOPE YOU ENJOYED IT ANYWAY

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