So 150% growth in four years isn’t bad, right? Turns out that this has a definite slowdown from several regions, including NA and EU.! This is due to some big challenges in the western world market (or nothern world in class parlance)…
Prices dropping – look at iPhone: games started at $10, now most are $1-2Poor advertising – where are games on your non-iPhone? How do you buy them?Big cuts – 50/50 with pub and carrier, and carrier takes more for ++marketingHandsets - _thousands_ of models to support (almost 2000 between NA and EU alone)! So if mobile games revenue will be boosted by other regions, which markets do we start with?
Four years from now, 20% of the world’s cell subscribers will be in the Far East and China, with 16% in AME and 15% in ISC! So you might think as a business person that we should focus on China first… but you’d be wrong.--Far East & China: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, South Korea, TaiwanIndia SC: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka.Rest of APAC: Australia, Brunei, Fiji, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
According to Juniper Research, if we look at the revenue forecast for mobile games over the next three years, we see that ISC should average 42% growth year-over-year. AME = 31%. Rest of APAC is 26%. Now, this isn’t the whole picture – this is just showing the fastest growing regions for mobile game revenue over the next 3 years.Why this explosive growth?Fastpenetration of mobile devices (as seen this quarter) shows an audience diving in head first, looking for more new media experiencesLow data costsMobile = default entertainment device (radio in Africa)! So let’s take a closer look at a 3 models that might work for these emerging markets…
We’ve seen that applying a western-oriented product doesn’t always work. In mobile games, we are seeing prices fluctuate in NA / WE / EE with increased sophistication of games. We know that this new market likes pricing that fits to a low-cost, low-use model: minute top-ups and single serve shampoo servings indicate ala carte is the way to go vs bigger charges or monthly cycles.Use mins in exchange for mins of playtime.How to use different carrier SIMs for validating on same handset? Have game ping game network server on instance start and instance stop (or sends SMS). Another option would be soloplay or turn-based MP where moves are transmitted via SMS and re-encoded (think chess); server would assess tariff on each SMS.Pro: outside of direct carrier controlCon: have to DL game (so need to drive customers to a purchase site to DL – infrastructure, literacy are hurdles)2) Embed on devices as value-add to handsets.More traditional model; would need to deal with multiple vendors OR partner with carriers to promote their handsets over 3rd party (value ad!)Pro: no game to DLCon: slow refresh of catalog, less word of mouth recs across different handsets (though hasn’t seemed to slow down iPhone!)3) Advertising revenue (free play) growing, good possible option. Ad appears at game launch and occasionally between levels. Call to action on ad (“click for SMS info”)Pro: No cash outlayCon: ad market is cyclical, not solid source of revenue on own
Mobile Games in Emerging Markets<br />Jeremy Snook<br />December 5, 2009<br />UW MCDM – COM 597<br />
Mobile games revenue in 2006:<br /> $4 billion<br />- Juniper Research<br />
Mobile games revenue in 2010:<br /> $10 billion<br />- Juniper Research<br />
Recession<br />Cheap prices<br />Poor advertising<br />Big cuts by carriers<br />Thousands of handsets<br />
Share of Global Cellular Subscriber Base, 2013 Forecast<br />Forecast by Juniper Research<br />
Mobile Game Revenue Growth, 2010-2013 (YoY)<br />42%<br />31%<br />26%<br />Forecast by Juniper Research<br />
Use voice minutes for<br />game minutes <br />2. Embed games on <br />the devices <br />3. Ad-supported <br />