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Poisson distribution jen


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  • 1. Poisson Distribution<br />Given a Poisson process, the probability of obtaining exactly successes in trials is given by the limit of a binomial distribution <br />(1) <br />Viewing the distribution as a function of the expected number of successes <br />(2) <br />instead of the sample size for fixed , equation (2) then becomes <br />(3) <br />Letting the sample size become large, the distribution then approaches <br />(4) (5) (6) (7) (8) <br />which is known as the Poisson distribution (Papoulis 1984, pp. 101 and 554; Pfeiffer and Schum 1973, p. 200). Note that the sample size has completely dropped out of the probability function, which has the same functional form for all values of . <br />The Poisson distribution is implemented in Mathematica as PoissonDistribution[mu]. <br />As expected, the Poisson distribution is normalized so that the sum of probabilities equals 1, since <br />(9) <br />The ratio of probabilities is given by <br />(10) <br />The Poisson distribution reaches a maximum when <br />(11) <br />where is the Euler-Mascheroni constant and is a harmonic number, leading to the transcendental equation <br />(12) <br />which cannot be solved exactly for . <br />The moment-generating function of the Poisson distribution is given by <br />(13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) <br />so <br />(19) (20) <br />(Papoulis 1984, p. 554). <br />The raw moments can also be computed directly by summation, which yields an unexpected connection with the exponential polynomial and Stirling numbers of the second kind, <br />(21) <br />known as Dobiński's formula. Therefore, <br />(22) (23) (24) <br />The central moments can then be computed as <br />(25) (26) (27) <br />so the mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis are <br />(28) (29) (30) (31) (32) <br />The characteristic function for the Poisson distribution is <br />(33) <br />(Papoulis 1984, pp. 154 and 554), and the cumulant-generating function is <br />(34) <br />so <br />(35) <br />The mean deviation of the Poisson distribution is given by <br />(36) <br />The Poisson distribution can also be expressed in terms of <br />(37) <br />the rate of changes, so that <br />(38) <br />The moment-generating function of a Poisson distribution in two variables is given by <br />(39) <br />If the independent variables , , ..., have Poisson distributions with parameters , , ..., , then <br />(40) <br />has a Poisson distribution with parameter <br />(41) <br />This can be seen since the cumulant-generating function is <br />(42) (43) <br />A generalization of the Poisson distribution has been used by Saslaw (1989) to model the observed clustering of galaxies in the universe. The form of this distribution is given by <br />(44) <br />where is the number of galaxies in a volume , , is the average density of galaxies, and , with is the ratio of gravitational energy to the kinetic energy of peculiar motions, Letting gives <br />(45) <br />which is indeed a Poisson distribution with . Similarly, letting gives . <br />The Poisson Distribution was developed by the French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson in 1837.<br />The Poisson random variable satisfies the following conditions:<br />On this page...<br />Mean and variance of Poisson distribution <br />The number of successes in two disjoint time intervals is independent.<br />The probability of a success during a small time interval is proportional to the entire length of the time interval.<br />Apart from disjoint time intervals, the Poisson random variable also applies to disjoint regions of space.<br />Applications<br />the number of deaths by horse kicking in the Prussian army (first application)<br />birth defects and genetic mutations<br />rare diseases (like Leukemia, but not AIDS because it is infectious and so not independent) - especially in legal cases<br />car accidents<br />traffic flow and ideal gap distance<br />number of typing errors on a page<br />hairs found in McDonald's hamburgers<br />spread of an endangered animal in Africa<br />failure of a machine in one month<br />The probability distribution of a Poisson random variable X representing the number of successes occurring in a given time interval or a specified region of space is given by the formula:<br />where<br />x = 0, 1, 2, 3...<br />e = 2.71828 (but use your calculator's e button)<br />μ = mean number of successes in the given time interval or region of space<br />Mean and Variance of Poisson Distribution<br />If μ is the average number of successes occurring in a given time interval or region in the Poisson distribution, then the mean and the variance of the Poisson distribution are both equal to μ.<br />E(X) = μ<br />and <br />V(X) = σ2 = μ<br />Note: In a Poisson distribution, only one parameter, μ is needed to determine the probability of an event. <br />EXAMPLE 1<br />A life insurance salesman sells on the average 3 life insurance policies per week. Use Poisson's law to calculate the probability that in a given week he will sell<br />(a) some policies <br />(b) 2 or more policies but less than 5 policies.<br />(c) Assuming that there are 5 working days per week, what is the probability that in a given day he will sell one policy?<br />Here, μ = 3<br />(a) " Some policies" means " 1 or more policies" . We can work this out by finding 1 minus the " zero policies" probability:<br />P(X > 0) = 1 − P(x0)<br />Now so <br />So <br />(b)<br />(c) Average number of policies sold per day: <br />So on a given day, <br />EXAMPLE 2<br />Twenty sheets of aluminum alloy were examined for surface flaws. The frequency of the number of sheets with a given number of flaws per sheet was as follows:<br />Number of flaws Frequency04132532445161<br />What is the probability of finding a sheet chosen at random which contains 3 or more surface flaws?<br />The total number of flaws is given by:<br />(0 × 4) + (1 × 3) + (2 × 5) + (3 × 2) + (4 × 4) + (5 × 1) + (6 × 1) = 46 <br />So the average number of flaws for the 20 sheets is given by:<br />The required probability is: <br />Histogram of Probabilities <br />We can see the predicted probabilities for each of " No flaws" , " 1 flaw" , " 2 flaws" , etc on this histogram.<br />[The histogram was obtained by graphing the following function for integer values of x only. <br />Then the horizontal axis was modified appropriately.] <br />EXAMPLE 3<br />If electricity power failures occur according to a Poisson distribution with an average of 3 failures every twenty weeks, calculate the probability that there will not be more than one failure during a particular week.<br />The average number of failures per week is: <br />" Not more than one failure" means we need to include the probabilities for " 0 failures" plus " 1 failure" . <br />EXAMPLE 4<br />Vehicles pass through a junction on a busy road at an average rate of 300 per hour.<br />Find the probability that none passes in a given minute.<br />What is the expected number passing in two minutes?<br />Find the probability that this expected number actually pass through in a given two-minute period.<br />The average number of cars per minute is: <br />(a) <br />(b) E(X) = 5 × 2 = 10 <br />(c) Now, with μ = 10, we have: <br />Histogram of Probabilities <br />Based on the function <br />we can plot a histogram of the probabilities for the number of cars per minute: <br />EXAMPLE 5<br />A company makes electric motors. The probability an electric motor is defective is 0.01. What is the probability that a sample of 300 electric motors will contain exactly 5 defective motors?<br />The average number of defectives in 300 motors is μ = 0.01 × 300 = 3<br />The probability of getting 5 defectives is:<br />NOTE: This problem looks similar to a binomial distribution problem, that we met in the last section.<br />If we do it using binomial, with n = 300, x = 5, p = 0.01 and q = 0.99, we get:<br />P(X = 5) = C(300,5)(0.01)5(0.99)295 = 0.10099 <br />We see that the result is very similar. We can use binomial distribution to approximate Poisson distribution (and vice-versa) under certain circumstances.<br />Histogram of Probabilities <br />