The new dynamics of poverty and the role of science in poverty alleviation<br />Javier M. Ekboir<br />ILAC coordinator<br ...
Content of the presentation<br />What is poverty alleviation?<br />The dynamics of poverty today<br />The role of research...
What is poverty alleviation?<br />
Measuring poverty alleviation<br />Poverty alleviation has two benchmarks:<br />Achieving food security and affording a he...
Where can these additional incomes come from?<br />Extreme poverty is now defined as living with less than 1.25 US dollars...
Where can these additional incomes come from? (2)<br />This is being increasingly recognized in the field of development<b...
Then<br />Does poverty alleviation mean increasing food security or affording a healthy life?<br />Can agricultural resear...
The dynamics of poverty today<br />
Six trends are shaping the dynamics of poverty today<br />Globalization<br />Urbanization<br />Migration and remittances<b...
Globalization is changing the markets for staples<br />Local and global markets for staples became more integrated after 1...
Globalization is changing the markets for staples (2)<br />Contrary to most expert forecasts, production of staples in sma...
Globalization is opening high value (HV) opportunities<br />International markets for HV products expanded<br />Easier acc...
Urbanization<br />More than half of the world population now lives in urban areas <br />Consumption patterns are changing<...
How do small farmers participate in HV agricultural markets?<br />HV export markets are mostly supplied by large farmers<b...
Technical change and HV markets<br />Most of the technologies used in HV markets were developed by private firms, ARIs and...
Technical change and HV markets (2)<br />But their effect on poverty was limited<br />Are these institutes still relevant?...
Migration and remittances<br />Local and distant labor markets also became more integrated<br />Easier travel and improved...
How are remittances used? (IFAD, IADB)<br />Education and health (i.e., human capital that can be used in off-farm employm...
What is the role of agriculture in diversified rural livelihood strategies?<br />In some areas (LA), the proportion of inc...
Where do the poor live?<br />In 1990 two thirds of the poor lived in low income countries<br />In 2007 three quarters of t...
The role of research in poverty alleviation<br />
What is an innovation?<br />Anything new successfully introduced into an economic or social process<br />The vast majority...
The importance of innovation capabilities<br />Not all people can innovate<br />Innovation and entrepreneurial capabilitie...
Poor households are heterogeneous <br />Households with innovation capabilities who are operating commercially<br />Househ...
Households with innovationcapabilities who are operating commercially (5%) <br />They are integrated into innovation or ma...
Households with innovationcapabilities who are operating commercially (5%) (2) <br />International and public research ins...
Households with innovationcapabilities who are not operatingcommercially (5 to 10%)<br />Their most pressing need is not p...
Households with innovationcapabilities who are not operatingcommercially (5 to 10%)(2) <br />Innovation brokers and NGOs a...
Households without entrepreneurial capabilities (80 to 90%)<br />These households have diversified livelihood strategies<b...
Recent trends in the organization of science<br />Research teams are increasingly inter-disciplinary, inter-institutional,...
Conclusions<br />Poor rural households are becoming more consumers and less producers (importance of global food supply ri...
Conclusions (2)<br />Agricultural development requires new types of research<br />With new partnerships<br />International...
Thanks<br />
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New dynamics of poverty

  1. 1. The new dynamics of poverty and the role of science in poverty alleviation<br />Javier M. Ekboir<br />ILAC coordinator<br />April 2011<br />
  2. 2. Content of the presentation<br />What is poverty alleviation?<br />The dynamics of poverty today<br />The role of research in poverty alleviation<br />
  3. 3. What is poverty alleviation?<br />
  4. 4. Measuring poverty alleviation<br />Poverty alleviation has two benchmarks:<br />Achieving food security and affording a healthy life<br />Food security can be improved by higher yields of staples, lower food prices or higher incomes<br />Affording a healthy life can only be achieved with higher incomes<br />
  5. 5. Where can these additional incomes come from?<br />Extreme poverty is now defined as living with less than 1.25 US dollars/day<br />People living with 2.5 US dollars/day are still poor but have more food security<br />If yields of staples increased threefold, small farmers would still be poor<br />
  6. 6. Where can these additional incomes come from? (2)<br />This is being increasingly recognized in the field of development<br />Higher yields of staples can reduce labor requirements and allow farmers to undertake new income generating activities <br />
  7. 7. Then<br />Does poverty alleviation mean increasing food security or affording a healthy life?<br />Can agricultural research help achieve food security? <br />Can agricultural research help poor households to afford a healthy life? <br />
  8. 8. The dynamics of poverty today<br />
  9. 9. Six trends are shaping the dynamics of poverty today<br />Globalization<br />Urbanization<br />Migration and remittances<br />Increasing number of poor live in middle income countries<br />Faster rate of technical change in agriculture<br />Foreign investment in agriculture<br />
  10. 10. Globalization is changing the markets for staples<br />Local and global markets for staples became more integrated after 1982<br />Price of staples in areas that were close to import markets fell <br />Profitability of small farms fell as well<br />
  11. 11. Globalization is changing the markets for staples (2)<br />Contrary to most expert forecasts, production of staples in small farms did not disappear<br />The price elasticity of food production in small farms is low and decreasing<br />
  12. 12. Globalization is opening high value (HV) opportunities<br />International markets for HV products expanded<br />Easier access to technical and commercial information<br />Easier access to equipment and inputs<br />But only a few farmers could take advantage of the new opportunities<br />
  13. 13. Urbanization<br />More than half of the world population now lives in urban areas <br />Consumption patterns are changing<br />The “supermarket revolution”<br />Domestic markets for agricultural products (staples and HV) are expanding <br />
  14. 14. How do small farmers participate in HV agricultural markets?<br />HV export markets are mostly supplied by large farmers<br />HV domestic markets are mostly supplied by larger, better endowed small farmers<br />Few small farmers can survive in these markets<br />Many small farmers participate as laborers <br />
  15. 15. Technical change and HV markets<br />Most of the technologies used in HV markets were developed by private firms, ARIs and NGOs<br />International and public research institutes contributed little to the process<br />Some international research institutes participated in the development of niche markets<br />
  16. 16. Technical change and HV markets (2)<br />But their effect on poverty was limited<br />Are these institutes still relevant?<br />
  17. 17. Migration and remittances<br />Local and distant labor markets also became more integrated<br />Easier travel and improved financial services meant that people from rural areas could work in distant locations and send remittances back home<br />In 2006, 150 million international migrants sent home US$ 300 billion<br />The average remittance in LA was 300 US$/month <br />
  18. 18. How are remittances used? (IFAD, IADB)<br />Education and health (i.e., human capital that can be used in off-farm employment) <br />Housing <br />Only a small proportion goes to productive activities, including agriculture <br />
  19. 19. What is the role of agriculture in diversified rural livelihood strategies?<br />In some areas (LA), the proportion of income rural households derive from agriculture is less than 30%<br />In other areas (Africa, China) it is still more than 70%<br />Agriculture serves as a retirement strategy<br />But the trend is clear: the importance of agriculture as a source of income is falling for most poor rural households<br />Rural households are increasingly consumers and less producers<br />
  20. 20. Where do the poor live?<br />In 1990 two thirds of the poor lived in low income countries<br />In 2007 three quarters of the poor lived in middle income countries (especially China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan)<br />The other quarter lives mostly in Africa<br />The change occurred because several large countries grew very fast, increasing income disparities<br />These countries are supposed to be able to take care of their poor <br />Some are building their research capabilities but mostly outside agriculture<br />
  21. 21. The role of research in poverty alleviation<br />
  22. 22. What is an innovation?<br />Anything new successfully introduced into an economic or social process<br />The vast majority of researchers do not innovate<br />They invent<br />Inventions only become innovations when they are used in social or economic processes<br />
  23. 23. The importance of innovation capabilities<br />Not all people can innovate<br />Innovation and entrepreneurial capabilities are strongly determined by innate factors<br />They are weakly related to education<br />There is a limit to how much they can be strengthened<br />
  24. 24. Poor households are heterogeneous <br />Households with innovation capabilities who are operating commercially<br />Households with innovation capabilities who are not operating commercially<br />Households without innovation capabilities<br />
  25. 25. Households with innovationcapabilities who are operating commercially (5%) <br />They are integrated into innovation or market networks<br />Most of their technologies are imported by private firms, NGOs or farmer associations<br />Private standards are increasingly important and influence technical change<br />
  26. 26. Households with innovationcapabilities who are operating commercially (5%) (2) <br />International and public research institutes are marginal suppliers of scientific information for these markets<br />Public institutes should develop capabilities to research local issues that cannot be solved with foreign information <br />
  27. 27. Households with innovationcapabilities who are not operatingcommercially (5 to 10%)<br />Their most pressing need is not production techniques<br />They need social and human capital to integrate into innovation and commercial networks<br />Also need access to efficient output and input markets<br />
  28. 28. Households with innovationcapabilities who are not operatingcommercially (5 to 10%)(2) <br />Innovation brokers and NGOs are needed to help these farmers integrate into more dynamic markets<br />Because there are no universal recipes on how to do it, new social science research is needed<br />Researchers should help to understand how these households can be identified and how they can be integrated into innovation and commercial networks<br />
  29. 29. Households without entrepreneurial capabilities (80 to 90%)<br />These households have diversified livelihood strategies<br />Improved seeds and management techniques can increase food security<br />They need skills to make a living not as farmers<br />Researchers can provide new techniques for orphan crops, help to manage on-farm conservation, increase food security<br />
  30. 30. Recent trends in the organization of science<br />Research teams are increasingly inter-disciplinary, inter-institutional, short-lived<br />Research is increasingly conducted by networks of actors, often including non-researchers<br />Research is often not conducted in research laboratories, but in private firms and fields<br />
  31. 31. Conclusions<br />Poor rural households are becoming more consumers and less producers (importance of global food supply rising)<br />Increased productivity of staples will increase food security<br />But will have a limited impact on poverty<br />High value markets will reduce poverty mainly by creating employment in rural areas and mobilizing the rural economy<br />The major impact on poverty will come from migration and remittances<br />
  32. 32. Conclusions (2)<br />Agricultural development requires new types of research<br />With new partnerships<br />International and public research institutes are not prepared for this type of research<br />Changing international and public research institutes is very difficult<br />Agricultural and research policies have to be targeted to specific groups of rural actors<br />
  33. 33. Thanks<br />
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