FAA Aviation Forecasts 2011-2031 overview
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FAA Aviation Forecasts 2011-2031 overview

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presented by Nan Shellabarger, Director, Aviation Policy and Plans, Federal Aviation Administration at the 36th Annual FAA Aviation Forecast Conference, February 2011

presented by Nan Shellabarger, Director, Aviation Policy and Plans, Federal Aviation Administration at the 36th Annual FAA Aviation Forecast Conference, February 2011

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  • 1. FAA National Federal Aviation AdministrationForecastFY 2011 - 2031By: Nan Shellabarger Director, Aviation Policy & PlansDate: February 15, 2011
  • 2. Agenda• Review of 2010• Assumptions• Traffic/Activity• Air Traffic Operations• Summary Federal Aviation 2February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 3. Review of 2010• Traffic recovering slowly – System passengers up 1.2%; RPMs up 2.2%; load factor up 2.1 pts• Yield rebounds partially from 2009 decline – Domestic mainline up 5.2%; International up 10.0%• Industry returns to profitability – Commercial carriers earn $3.0B; Passenger carriers earn $1.7B• Air Traffic operations mixed – Total FAA & Contract tower operations fell for 3rd consecutive year – En route A/C handled posted first increase since 2007 Federal Aviation 3February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 4. Key Assumptions – Medium/Long Term• Economic growth – U.S. and Europe lackluster: 2% to 2.5% per year – Asia and Latin America dynamic: 4% to 5% per year• Energy – Oil prices at $100 by 2018, exceed $110 by 2030• Airline consolidation – May continue to occur in various forms, but no impact on overall level of demand• Forecast is “unconstrained” – Future demand not materially impacted by environmental or infrastructure constraints Federal Aviation 4February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 5. CY 2011-31 Economic Growth 6.0%Real GDP – AAGR 5.0% 4.6% 4.2% 4.0% 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% U.S. Europe Asia Latin World Federal Aviation 5 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 6. U.S. Unemployment Rate 11.0 Actual 9.7% in 2010 Forecast 10.0 9.0Percent 8.0 7.0 6.0 4.8% in 2024 5.0 4.0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim Federal Aviation 6 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 7. Oil Prices $160 Actual Forecast $157 $140RAC $ Per Barrel $120 $113 $100 $102 $80 $74 $60 $40 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim Federal Aviation 7 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 8. System RPMs 2,000,000 Actual Forecast 1,800,000 1.7 Trillion in 2031 1,600,000RPMs (MIL) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 787 Billion in 2010 600,000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim Federal Aviation 8 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 9. System RPMs 1,800,000 Actual Forecast 1,600,000 1,400,000RPMs (MIL) 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 Dom. Mainline Dom. Regional International Federal Aviation 9 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 10. System Enplanements 1,500,000 Actual Forecast 1,400,000Enplanements (000) 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 1 Billion in 2021 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim Federal Aviation 10 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 11. Passenger Enplanements 1,400,000 Actual Forecast 1,200,000Enplanements (000) 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 Dom. Mainline Dom. Regional International Federal Aviation 11 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 12. System Load Factor 84.0 Actual Forecast 83.0Load Factor (%) 82.0 81.0 80.0 79.0 78.0 77.0 76.0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2011 Base 2010 Fcst Federal Aviation 12 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 13. Mainline Carrier Domestic Real Yield 14.0 Actual Forecast 13.5Real Yield (2010¢) 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2011 Base 2010 Fcst Pess Optim Federal Aviation 13 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 14. US & Foreign Flag Passengers by Region 6.0% 2011 Base 2010 Fcst 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.0% 4.5%AA%GR: 2010-30 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Atlantic Latin Pacific Transborder System CY Federal Aviation 14 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 15. Cargo RTMs 100,000 Actual Forecast 93 Billion 90,000 80,000RTMs (Mil) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 36 Billion 30,000 20,000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2011 Base 2010 Fcst Federal Aviation 15 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 16. General Aviation Active Aircraft 300,000 Actual Forecast 250,000Active Aircraft 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 CY Piston Experimental, LSA, Other Turbine Federal Aviation 16 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 17. General Aviation Hours Flown 40,000 Actual Forecast 35,000 30,000Hours (000) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 CY Piston Experimental, LSA, Other Turbine Federal Aviation 17 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 18. En Route Aircraft Handled 70,000 Actual Forecast 65,000A/C Handled (000) 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2011 Base 2010 Fcst Federal Aviation 18 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 19. En Route Aircraft Handled 70,000 Actual Forecast 60,000Operations (000) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 Commercial Non Commercial Federal Aviation 19 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 20. Passengers by Hub Size: 2030 vs. 2010 1,000,000 900,000 80% increase 2010 2030Enplanements (000) 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 67% increase 200,000 61% increase 100,000 0 Large Medium Small Federal Aviation 20 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 21. Operations by Hub Size: 2030 vs. 2010 45,000 Commercial 22% increase 40,000 Non CommercialOperations (000s) 35,000 30,000 25,000 61% increase 20,000 15,000 40% increase 10,000 5,000 0 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 Large Medium Small Federal Aviation 21 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 22. FAA and Contract Tower Operations 70,000 Actual Forecast 60,000Operations (000) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 Commercial Non Commercial Federal Aviation 22 February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 23. Forecast Risks• Energy Prices – Increasing volatility – Supply/demand balance may not be as favorable as assumed• Economy – Strength of recovery still uncertain• Capacity Discipline – Will carriers continue to exercise restraint with strengthening demand and improved profitability?• Congestion – Growth fastest at largest airports Federal Aviation 23February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 24. Forecast Risks• Airline Consolidation – Yields and fares higher – More financially stable industry?• Climate Change – Problem is global – Path forward requires multiple solutions Federal Aviation 24February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 25. Summary• Industry recovery continues in 2011 – More modest than prior recoveries – International recovering faster than domestic• Substantial growth in demand and activity – 560 million additional passengers on US carriers by 2031 – Traffic (RPMs) more than double – Tower operations increase by 35%; aircraft handled up 61%• Significant risks – Energy prices: may have higher levels and increased volatility – Economy: may have lower demand – Congestion: Capacity (infrastructure and technology) at congested airports may not keep pace with demand – Airline consolidation: may lead to higher fares – Climate change: may lead to reductions in demand Federal Aviation 25February 15, 2011 Administration
  • 26. Federal Aviation 26February 15, 2011 Administration